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Roethlisberger - A Historical Perspective by Steel Perch
December 05, 2007 by CK Stiller
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By: Steel Perch
It�s has been a hotly debated topic for some time now where Ben Roethlisberger stands in the hierarchy of today�s QB�s, and how he ranks historically vs. the greats. Take a look at any local Sunday paper, any message board, or watch any pre-game show and you�ll hear a ton of opinions ranging anywhere from Ben is equal to Rex Grossman to Ben is John Elway reincarnated. Typically you�ll see little statistical facts to back the arguments. Well finally, here is the article you have been looking for.
I decided to pull some stats and compare Ben to �The Big Nine� QB�s of the modern era. Simply put, I threw out any QB�s that played before the rule changes became more liberal for passers, so I�m only looking at the 9 HOF QB�s that played their career from 1980 - 2007. Anyone who played before that most likely won�t have stats that are as good as these modern guys (apples and oranges). The �Big 9� guys are: Montana, Marino, Young, Moon, Elway, Kelly, Favre, Manning, Brady, with Ben Roethlisberger for comparisons sake. Looking solely at the first four years of the career here is where these guys rank:
The Rankings amongst Ben and the �Big Nine�:
Ben Roethlisberger ranks as follows through their first four years:
#1 in Completion percentage
#1 in yards per Attempt
# 2 in QB rating behind only Marino
# 3 in TD�s (projected through end of year)
# 5 in yards (projected through end of year)
# 2 in win percentage behind Brady
QB Effectiveness:
My thoughts on QB play are that any knucklehead can throw for yards. Bad teams trail hence throw more. A quick look down the All time Passing Yardage charts will turn up Vinny Testaverde, Steve Deberg, Kerry Collins, Dave Kreig, and Jim Hart in the top 20! Those guys are hardly great QB�s. A John Kitna, Brad Johnson, or Tommy Maddox can end up near the top of the league in passing yards for a season. The best QB performance indicators are Yards Per Attempt (YPA), Completion % and QB Rating. Roethlisberger has shown he is the most efficient passer of this entire group over his first four years of his career. He has played in a fairly ground oriented system so his attempts, yards, and TD�s aren�t as high as some others, but when Ben has thrown the ball, he�s done so more effectively than anyone on this HOF list over his first four years.
For comparisons sake:
Ben will have three of his first four years with YPA over 8.0, a QB rating over 98, and a completion % over 625. For comparisons sake:
YPA - John Elway never broke 8 YPA for a season in his entire career, nor did Joe Montana, Warren Moon, or Tom Brady (until this year). Manning has done it only twice, Kelly 3 times. Ben will match that in his first 4 years. Mr Gunslinger himself, Brett Favre has never hit the YPA mark for a season!
Comp% - Elway, Kelly & Marino only broke 61% 3 times in their careers. Ben has done it 3 out of 4 years.
QB Ratings � Ben is head and shoulders above everyone but Marino for the first 4 years of their career. Ben is on pace to end his career as one of the top 3 highest rated QB�s to ever play the game.
The Number 23 & the third year slump:
Manning, Favre, Marino, Elway, Moon all had at least one 23 INT year in their first four years. Ben has taken a lot of heat for last year�s performance, but he went through the windshield of a Buick, had an appendectomy, and a concussion in a few month span just coming off an emotional playoff run and SB win. The funny thing is Ben�s worst year (75 QB rating) was better than the first four year total of Moon, Young, and Elway. You�ll never hear any national media folks cite that little tidbit.
Also, Elway, Moon, Kelly, and Favre all had set back years in their 3rd season. Brett Favre�s season 3 is eerily similar to Ben�s, sans windshield excuse.
The playoffs and SB:
Do you know who the highest rated passer in the playoffs is over the past two years? Ben Roethlisberger. While Tom Brady was intercepted at crucial times and threw away games for losses in 3 of his last 4 playoff games (although they ended up beating SD), Peyton Manning took a whooping vs. Pittsburgh two years ago and was pretty average in their SB run last year, Ben out performed all other QB�s. You�ll always get the �Ben sucked in the SB� argument. Yeah, he laid an egg, but the three road wins he had leading up to the big game were historically great, and he is 5-1 all time in the post season. Only Tom Brady has a better post season win%. People always forget how Marino wasn�t so hot in his only SB performance, Elway lost his first three, Kelly lost 4, and Moon never made one. They get a pass though I suppose.
Summary:
The typical media perception of Roethlisberger has been that he is a good QB that simply manages games, but pails in comparison to the great QB�s in the history of the game. I think the chart below proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Ben in his first 4 years is as good, or better than any HOF QB we have seen in the past 25+ years.
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The Chart:
QBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingRoethlisberger200419629566.426218.9171198.1Roethlisberger200516826862.723858.917998.6Roethlisberger200628046959.735137.5182375.4Roethlisberger200721432066.9256482511102.9totals858135263.46%110838.197775491.47Notes: Comp% above 62 % 3 times, Qb rating above 98 3 times, YPA above 8 3 timesQBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingELWAY198312325947.516636.4714ELWAY198421438056.325986.81815ELWAY19853276055438916.42223ELWAY198628050455.634856.91913totals944174854.00%116376.657666571.92Notes: never broke 8 YPA in his career, only 25 TD's 4 times, 61% 3 times.QBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingMarino198317329658.422107.5206Marino198436256464.2508494817Marino198533656759.341377.33021Marino198637862360.747467.64423totals1249205060.93%161777.8911426795.21Notes: only 3 years in entire career with comp% above 61%QBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingMontana1979132356.5964.210Montana198017627364.517956.6159Montana198131148863.735657.31912Montana198221334661.626137.61711totals713113063.10%80697.141523287.96Notes: only broke 8 ypa for a season once!QBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingMOON198425945057.633387.41214MOON198520037753.127097.21519MOON198625648852.534897.11326MOON19871843685028067.62118totals899168353.42%123427.333617770.17Notes: Only once over 8ypa and twice over 61% for career, 3 years over 25 tdsQBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingKelly198628548059.435937.52217Kelly198725041959.727986.71911Kelly198826945259.533807.51517Kelly198922839158.3313082518totals1032174259.24%129017.406816382.743 times in career over 61% and 3 times over 8 YPA. Only had a 25 Td season twice in career.QBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingFavre19910400002Favre199230247164.132276.91813Favre199331852260.933036.31924Favre199436358262.438826.73314totals983157962.25%104126.594705382.23NEVER over 8 YPA in career! MR Gunslinger.. 3rd year = Bens windshield year; First 4 year stat totals = Ben'sQBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingManning199832657556.737396.52628Manning199933153362.141357.82615Manning200035757162.544137.73315Manning200134354762.741317.62623totals1357222660.96%164187.3761118185.08only twice over 8 YPAQBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingBrady20001333.36200Brady200126441363.928436.91812Brady200237360162.137646.32814Brady200331752760.236206.92312totals955154461.85%102336.628693885.88Never over 8 YPA for a season (until this year)QBYearCompAtt%YardsYPATDINTRatingYoung19857213852.29356.838Young198619536353.722826.3813Young1987376953.65708.3100Young19885410153.56806.733totals35867153.35%44676.657242471.3Only 4 seasons with 25+ Td's
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