Stillers vs. Doncos Pregame Analysis (AFC Champ. Game, @ Denver)
The Stillers travel to the mile high city to take on the Denver Doncos for the right to attend SB XL. The Stillers are coming off a huge upset victory at Indy, while the Doncos dethroned the defending champ Patriots.
* When the Doncos have the ball, they'll be led by former AZ Card Jake Plummer, who had a solid season. As a passer, Plummer isn't to be confused with Danny Marino or even Warren Moon, but he had a good season in which he tossed 18 TDs and only 7 INTs. Plummer doesn't run nearly as often as his AZ days -- having an OL that's 5 times better helps in that regard -- but he is a capable runner who isn't a stonefooted oaf like a Peyton Womaning. After past exploits like giving the finger to his home crowd, Plummer has been a good field leader this season for the Doncos.
The Doncs possess an incredibly deep stable at RB. Former Ute Mike Anderson is the workhorse, and he had a splendid season, gaining just over 1,000 yards at 4.2 yards a crack. Smaller but quicker Tatum Bell provides a nice dash to Andy's bash, and Bell rushed for a gaudy 5.3 yards a crack. The Doncos can also call upon Fat Ron Dayne -- whose not as portly as he was in NY -- to tote the pill, and he did it to the tune of 5.1 yards a crack, which, to me, is utterly amazing. Kyle Johnson serves as a capable, underrated FB.
The men behind -- or rather, in front of -- these gaudy yards per carry numbers are the Denver O-linemen. It is the best O-line the Stillers have faced this season, bar none. Ageless Tom Nalen anchors the middle at center. Nalen isn't particularly big or ox-strong, but he's a master technician that is easily among the best 3 centers in the league. LT Matt Lepsis is the other stalwart on this line. Lepsis was actually a college TE who came to the Doncos as an undrafted FA. He isn't anywhere near big for a LT, but, like Nalen, he's a superb technician with good technique and footwork. LG Ben Hamilton is the better of the 2 guards. He's a capable puller and his agility helps make the zone blocking scheme tick. Cooper Carlisle mans the RG spot, and he's the most hum-drum blocker on this line. RT George Foster -- no relation to the former Reds slugger -- is a mammoth tackle (6'5", 338) drafted in the 1st round out of UGA in 2003. His enormous size is an aberration for Denver, which prefers smaller, quicker lineman, but he impressed enough early on in his career, on the left side, that Denver moved him to the right, where he started since the beginning of 2004.
The key to this Denver O-line is their well-orchestrated zone blocking scheme. This O-line isn't looking to bully or bulldoze defenders; rather, they're merely looking to get hat-on-hat, and through the spread of their bread n' butter stretch play, create enough of a crack where a RB can cut back to daylight or surge just wide of tackle to daylight. They'll also chip D-linemen and then bypass for LBers in the 2nd level, knowing that their RBs are good enough to read the blocking and the daylight and then tote the ball appropriately. Athletic and clever, this line will gladly cut a defender rather than maul him, and there's always the accusations of cheap, dirty play that many opponents have levied against the Doncs. They're also very sound in cutting off back-side pursuit. This is a line that is fit, athletic, and supremely-conditioned enough to grind and pound all day long; and in fact they rather enjoy it.
The Pats did a very creditable job in limiting the vaunted Donco rushing attack last week. Wilfork and Seymour, of course, are dominant forces that helped NE in that regard. But the Stillers have Fat Casey Hampton, who is a load in and of himself. I think the main difference between the Stillers D and that of the Patsies, is the size of OLB Willie McGinest, who is really a DE in sheep's clothing. Porter and Haggans each weigh in at 250-255. Denver loves running the ball off-tackle in that zone-blocking scheme, as it gives both Bell and Andy the choice to cut back up guard/tackle or bounce it just wide of tackle. The OLBs thus become a center of gravity for stopping the Donco rushing attack.
The other concern is the flow of the ILBs flow -- and more critically, the overflow or over-pursuit. This is really a bigger concern than the OLBs. Foote is guilty of over-pursuit at least 10 times in any given game, and Farrior is prone to over-pursuit on occasion, such as when he grossly over pursued on Rudi�s 18-yard run on the 1st play of the 3Q two weeks ago in Cinci. Anderson and Bell excel at reading, and then cutting back against over-pursuit, which is why their yards/carry is so doggone hefty.
Denver rushing vs. Pit rush D -- Advantage: Slight edge to Denver
The Donco passing offense isn't extremely volatile and dangerous, but it's no cupcake, either. Ageless Rod Smith had another superb season, snaring 85 balls and 6 TDs. Smith is as savvy, clever, and reliable as they come in the NFL. Opposite Smitty is Ashley Lelie, a big, rangy receiver who, at 18.3 yards per catch, is a strong downfield threat. Although Smith is the bread n' butter of the passing attack, Lelie is the threat that pushes safeties off the LOS and back into coverage. The Doncos don't often go to the flashy 4-wide sets, but Charlie Adams serves as a capable 3rd WR. Steve Alexander generally starts at TE, but Jeb Putzier is the go-to TE in the passing attack. He's no putz, either. A former WR at Boise St., The Putz has extremely good hands and isn't a clumsy clodhopper in the Mark Bruener mold.
The Stillers D got a lot of mileage out of their base last week, though they did employ the nickel and the dime a fair amount. Because Denver isn't likely to go with 4 or 5 WR sets, and because of Denver's superb rushing attack, the Stillers will probably stick with their base 3-4 for most of the game, aside from obvious passing downs.
The Stillers will look to contain Plummer by disallowing large gaps and outside lanes, but they'll certainly put some blitz pressure on Bummer to see if he can hold up. The Denver O-line is better than that of Indy's, and they'll presumably give Bummer a bit better protection than what Indy's shameful line provided last week.
The key concern is Plummer's ability to throw on the run, both off designed bootlegs as well as ad-hoc scrambles. The Stillers have been blessed with facing a long sequence of bootfooted QBs, and haven't faced a throw-on-the-run threat since Brett Favre in early November. Although Smith is an admirable WR, I don't see the Doncos picking us apart, as Bummer just isn't that good a passer to do that. But, he's capable of hitting some big plays while on the move, and that very much concerns me, especially for a defense in which the FS makes a play on the ball about once per month, in a good month.
My other concern is softee coverage on the outside, which Shanahan will latch onto like a dog after a t-bone steak. Rod Smith can run the out and the curl as crisply as any WR in the league, and if the coverage is too soft, he could help move the chains with some easy pitch n' catch.
Indy beat the Pittsburgh blitz only once last week, that on a designed quick-dumpoff to TE Bryan Fletcher. It worked so well that Dungy and Moore never tried it again. I'm quite sure Shanahan, an offensive guru by trade, saw this on the tape and will be looking to feed quick dumps to Bell/Andy, Alexander, and Putzier. Not only are these dumps feasible against a blitz, but they are also perfect, high-percentage passes for a QB like Bummer, who thrives on confidence and isn't a sniper when it comes to accuracy.
Denver passing vs. Pit pass D -- Advantage: even
Other key matchups:
* Casey Hampton vs. Tom Nalen. Hampton is a load that should do his job and clog the middle. However, in the Denver zone-blocking scheme, Nalen does not need to move or bulldoze Fat Casey. He need only get a hat on the big NT, or on some plays chip and bypass for a LB.
* Ike Taylor vs. Ashley Lelei. I don't know that Ike will shadow The Ash, but he's got the size and speed to make plays downfield against the big, rangy Ash.
* ROLB Joey Porter vs. LT Matt Lepsis. Joey The Mouth loves to woof, although he did nothing against Tarik Glenn last week, at least on plays when Glenn (or anyone) attempted to block the big LB. Lepsis is far better than Glenn, and Joey the Mouth will need a lot of bite, not bark, to beat Lepsis.
* Stillers' pass rush vs. Plummer's mobility. The Stiller D has been prone to lapses of huge acreage against the more mobile QBs. Keeping the likes of Kitna, Orton, and Manning contained is one thing; keeping The Snake contained is quite another.
* When the Stillers have the ball, Benji Roethlisberger is flying high after 2 playoff wins. He carried the load last week, passing the Stillers to a 14-0 lead that they never relinquished. The ground game was mediocre last week, and will have to be considerably more effective against the NFL's #2 rush defense.
The Browns' D-line, I mean, the Denver D-line, was overhauled and is replete with former Brownies who have found new life in Denver. (This shows you what good coaching can do.) Gerard Warren, who badly underachieved in Clev, mans a DT spot and is a load to move. Fellow Brownie Mike Myers mans the other DT spot. Oft-injured Brownie Courtney Brown works the LDE spot, and unlike his injury-plagued days in Clev, he's held up remarkably well, playing in 14 games. Trevor Pryce, a holdover from the Doncos team that beat the Stillers in the Jan. 1998 AFCC, works the RDE spot, with former Brownie Ebenezer "The Scrooge" Ekuban getting lots of work in relief and as a pass rusher. Graybeard DE Marco Coleman also sees spot duty in relief.
Although some will say that "this is the same D-line we bullied when they played for Clev", that's not necessarily the case. For one, these 4 Brownies didn't play together as a true 4-man unit. Secondly, the main problem of those Cleveland defenses was the pitiful LB corps, which wasn't capable of stopping a high school rushing attack.
The Donco LB corps is small, but very fast and agile. Leading the way is MLB Al Wilson, who had a dominant performance in last week's win over NE and is a top-flight LB. Former Donco Ian Gold, who had a brief hiatus with Tampa last season, rejoined the Doncs in '05 and is solid and quick. Former Hurricane and 2004 1st rounder DJ Williams mans the other OLB, and although he may not be progressing as fast as Denver fans would like, he's becoming a steady force on this defense. All of these LBs can go sideline to sideline and make plays all over the field.
This is a much stouter front-7 versus the run than what Indy offered, and obviously 20 times stingier than that of Cinci. This matchup is pure strength vs. strength.
Stiller rushing vs. Denver rush D -- Advantage: even
The Stiller passing game clicked on all cylinders last week in the win over Indy. Ward, El, and TE Heath Miller shredded the Dolts' secondary.
The Donco secondary is obviously their Achilles heel, as they finished 29th in the NFL in pass defense. Leading the way is all-world Champ Bailey, who is among the rarest of breed in today's NFL -- a true cover-corner. The Champ will play like a chump at times, going through lackadaisical lapses, but when he's on, he can take away half the field. Opposite Champ is rookie Dom Foxworth, who supplanted fellow rookie Darrent Williams earlier in the season when Willie was hobbled by injury. (Steel Phantom spotlighted both of these corners in his pre-draft analysis.) Williams serves as the chief nickel back, and it's a tribute to the quality of this Donco coaching staff, led by DC Larry Coyer, that they are getting such enormous contributions from not one, but two rookie CBs. Both have extreme speed to burn, although Fox is the more agile and athletic. Veteran heavy-hitter John Lynch works the FS spot, with Nick Ferguson, who's bounced around all over the league, doing the SS chores. Lynch isn't a deep safety at all at this point of his career; he's more so an extra OLB who gives reliable tackling and good veteran leadership to this defense.
The key matchup here is the potential of Hines Ward vs. Champ Bailey. I don't know how Shitahan and Coyer will want to handle this. They could choose to sick Bailey on Ward, thereby hoping to limit Ward and taking their chances that Fox can corral El. But Ward won't stand idly by and allow Bailey to blanket him, and while Bailey is prone to take a play off now and then, Hines Ward goes all-out on each and every play. On the other hand, Bailey could very easily blanket El with no help at all from the rest of the secondary, with the Doncos shading coverage over to help Fox cover Ward.
TE Heath Miller is a favorable match against either Fergie or Lynch, and must be involved in the passing game, right from jump street.
Stiller passing vs. Denver pass D -- Advantage: Stillers, by a nice margin
As my esteemed colleague, Steel Phantom, has shown each week, the Stillers have been a slow-starting team in the run department, often using their pass, as they did last week, to move the safety(s) off the LOS. Big hitter John Lynch will spend some time on Sunday up close to shut down the run, but I think Shanahan has enough confidence in his #2 ranked rush defense that they can, at least initially, keep Lynch back and put their front 7 to the test. Because of this inevitable chess match, the Stillers have to provide Benji with the tools to audibilize into a more favorable play as the situation arises. If the run is there, run the ball. If the pass is there, throw it. What we don't want to see, is a macho, Neanderthal offense that blindly plunges the RB into the teeth of an 8-man front.
Special Teams: This being the playoffs, there�s always a high probability of a Stillers spec teams fiasco. Fortunately, aside from PK Jason Elam and punter Todd Sauerbrun, the Donco spec teams are ordinary. Randle El sparked the Stillers in the 2H last week, returning a punt 20 yards to set up shop at the Indy 30. Jamie Harrison will probably be missed on coverage teams. Darrent Williams has great speed, but hasn't taken 1 return to the house all season. Edge: Doncos, by a slim margin
Coaching:
Mike Shanahan has had an illustrious NFL coaching career, winning a SB ring as OC of the 49ers in the early 90's before winning 2 rings as the HC of the Doncos. Shanahan was offered the OC job by Billy Cowher back in '92, and I'm quite sure that Shanahan thanks his lucky stars every morning, when he awakes, that he declined Billy's offer. In their previous playoff meeting, Shanahan used Cowher like his personal little bitch, smothering Thigpen with double coverage and forcing the Stillers to throw elsewhere, which they were entirely unprepared to do. Faced with a 3rd & 7 on his own 20 at the 2:00 warning, Shanahan used the timeout to draw up a play, not even in their playbook, that spread out 5 receivers. The result? Shannon Sharpe on Jason GilDong, perhaps the biggest mismatch in playoff history. 8 yards later, the game was over.
Billy Cowher has choked and gagged in the playoffs more than any HC in modern NFL history. (See Cowhard's tabular playoff history and verbiage-playoff history.) He did break out of his Neanderthal shell with rare gusto last week, going with aggressiveness on offense and defense, rather than the dull vanilla that he has always preferred. The concern, of course, is that the deeper into the playoffs Billy goes, the more the apple gets lodged in his throat. When it comes to playoff football, no one does less, with more, than Billy Cowher.
Edge: Denver
Other critical Matchups or Keys:
* Marvel Smith vs. Anyone. He didn't block a soul last week. He needs to extract his head from his ass prior to game time.
* Force Plummer to implode. He's prone to implosion, as evidenced by his 4 INTs and 1 fumble in the 3 Donco losses, and his long history of implosion and lamebrained decision-making.
* Taking the crowd out of game. The Stillers took the Cinci crowd out with the accidental injury of Palmer. They took Indy's fans out with the 14-0 1Q lead. Mile High will be rocking, and the Stillers would be best served by getting another early lead, or at the very least, achieving a stalemate and forcing the hometown Donco fans to become restless at halftime.
Intangibles
* How they looked last week. Denver had their hands full, although they were playing the defending world champs. The Stillers looked raggedy vs. Cinci, and then looked, aside from the 4Q, like world-beaters vs. Indy. Under Cowher, the Stillers have long looked dominant & unstoppable in the playoffs on 1 week, only to come out laying an egg the following week. Can't remember? Just go back to the seasons of 1994, 95, 96, and 2001.
* Altitude. I have lived in Colorada. The altitude ain't no joke; it's for real. One has to wonder if the rotund, portly players like Hampton, KenDoll Simmons, and Big Jerome Bettis will tucker out from the altitude. Mike Shanahan has worked a lot of baby fat off the likes of Ron Dayne and Gerard Warren, and the results have been impressive. This is a fast Denver team with impressive stamina. On the other hand, Billy Cowher treats conditioning and weight control as just another chore to do, as long as it doesn't interfere with movie attendance or his own TV spots.
* Home field. The Doncos are undefeated at home this season and are 12-2 at home in the playoffs.
Synopsis: This is a good matchup for the Stillers, facing a team with an ordinary QB, a porous secondary, and a ho-hum pass rush. Let there be no doubt, the better football team will be the one wearing the gold pants on Sunday afternoon. The Stillers have more overall depth, a better all-around defense, a better passing attack, and a vastly superior QB, to go along with a strong kicking game, a stable running game, and superb WR. The road to the Lombardi Trophy is wide open and paved with Steeler gold, because the AFC's #1 seed has been knocked out and whichever injury-riddled NFC team shows up in Detroit will be a lamb at the slaughter at the Super Bowl. A win over the Doncos all but guarantees the long-awaited 5th Lombardi Trophy for the Stiller franchise.
I'm already getting annoying phone calls from old friends and neighbors from when I lived in Colorada, and I've been talking smack right back at these Colorada homos, and will be ready to gloat about the Stillers the minute the game ends. As a fan, I'm enormously pumped up and excited. Optimism is fine, but gimlet-eyed realism should be the standard here for genuine analysis. This is a gut wrenching call, but I cannot, in good conscience as a sports analyst, ignore the time-honored preparation, leadership, gasping-for-air flailing, careless inattention to detail, and in-game decision-making deficiencies of a Billy Cowher-coached playoff team. This will be a nip-and-tuck game, with the Doncos grinding out some clutch plays in the 2H to advance to the Super Bowl with a 23-19 win over the Stillers.