View topic - New Article: LeBeau Exposed By Cold Hard Facts

[StillMill Profile]

LeBeau Exposed By Cold Hard Facts has been posted by Still Mill at Stillers.com.

[cucumber Profile]

Conclusion
"This is not a case for dismissing the notion that Bill Belichick and Dick LeBeau are highly successful and great defensive minds. They have a long history of documented success and are worthy of Hall of Fame-praise. They are legends."

[cucumber Profile]

Conclusion
"This is not a case for dismissing the notion that Bill Belichick and Dick LeBeau are highly successful and great defensive minds. They have a long history of documented success and are worthy of Hall of Fame-praise. They are legends."

[PGHeaven Profile]

cucumber you are drinking the koolaid. The infamous 92 yeard drive cemented the notion that Dick can and will go bye bye in the head. This was inexcusable. The fact that we had Troy Pola guarding noone on the most crucial 2 plays of the year is an abomination

[rifraff Profile]

Yeah,yeah. Any suggestions on what we can do to lessen the 4th Q choke, besides ur obvious solution?

[isfry Profile]

"The problem with legends is that they quickly become bulletproof to criticism."

Apparently the author has never bothered to check out this site...

[SteelThatDon'tRust Profile]

Might the problem be that LeBeau won't rotate the D line enough? It would be interesting to break these 4Q collapses down into passing vs run plays. I've seen the D get gashed occasionally by runs in the 4Q, but my memory brings back mostly losses due to lack of pass rush. The D line always looks totally gassed. When you make your living out of pressuring the QB, you're screwed once you lose your ability to apply pressure to the QB. LeBeau consistently refuses to rotate in fresh bodies on the D line. This is a complaint not only on this board.

[Pommah Profile]

This article covers the "Topic for Analysis" almost exactly that I posted on November 8. The article is dated November 11, more than enough time for the geeks at CHFF to do the work.

Clearly I missed my calling. Mill you are free to email me for more suggestions.

Statistically, what is hinted at in the article but not quite framed correctly, is that the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, et al are in a position to blow more late leads than other teams, simply by being up more often than not.

To really do the analysis, you have to separate out the consistent winners from the overall cohort. It makes no sense to be comparing Stillers, Pats, Ravens, etc. with consistent losers like the Lions. Then you have to somehow separate out 4Q opportunities to blow the lead. When you're up by 3 TD's, there's not really an opportunity for the other team. Then you also have to separate the times when your own team's offensive heroics countered what would have been a blown lead by your D. Think of all the times BR7 has rescued the D's butts. CHFF is getting close, but they need to do a little more statistical analysis to really call out Dick or Bill as lead-blowers. I will have to reread and see if they have culled enough info for me to do it. If I have enough time.

[JimPgh1 Profile]

Let's see, the teams that win the most games also lose more close games late. That's truly amazing, Mill. And here I would have thought that the Browns blew more late leads. Or maybe the Chiefs. Or possibly the Lions.

So then, it's the teams that are in the lead the most in the 4th quarter, that also blow leads most often.

Thanks for enlightening us with this astounding revelation.

[Pommah Profile]

JimPgh1, reread my earlier post, and there are other postings on this topic as well.

Of course the Stillers have more opportunities to blow more leads just by virtue of being on top more. Yet it appears that even given that fact the Stillers are blowing leads out of proportion. That is the crux of the matter, are they an outlier, or not. CHFF tries to get at that, claims they are, but I don't think there analysis is quite good enough.

My hypothesis is that they are blowing leads too much. I don't think Dick is an awful DC. But I do think this is a pretty serious achilles heel that needs to be addressed. The game changes in late Q4 with close scores and I don't think our adjustments are working. I think this has been the case for a while but is getting worse. You got Tony Dungy calling Dick out on it on primetime TV. No one is going to accuse TD of being an idiot or being anti-Steeler