View topic - New Article: Stillers-Jackers Pregame Outlook

[StillMill Profile]

Stillers-Jackers Pregame Outlook has been posted by Still Mill at Stillers.com.

[rifraff Profile]

It should be a good game. If were up 13 at half-time, Ill take it and were going to win, barring refs dont give it away. If were running good, Pack could be in for long day.

[napnewman Profile]

Mill - I agree that the Stillers have a challenge ahead of them, but picking the Pack to win???

How about - Ben decides HE must win the game, runs alot of no huddle, named MVP? (my best case scenario).

[isfry Profile]

spot on analysis, as usual, Mill, although I am inclined to think (maybe it's just my heart) that the Stillers will prevail in this one. One thing that I wonder about is the proposed impact of Raji, if Lego indeed gets the start, which is looking pretty likely. While I agree that Pouncey gets to the second level way better than Doug, Doug (6'1, 315 lbs) has a little weight on Pouncey (6'4, 304 lbs), and from what I hear he is considerably stronger. I havent seen all that much of Raji, but I have been paying attention to the Pack since at least week 15, and certainly watched all their playoff games, and his quickness (6'2, 337 lbs) isnt really what scares me. I think that Doug will be able to hold his own in the center, and I do not expect Raji to be as "disruptive" as some fear and you imply. Whether Doug will be able to peel off and get to the second level is another story, but we seemed to have considerable success going off right tackle without involving the center (whoever he was) at the second level against the Jest. If Lego can keep the fat man from penetrating into the backfield, I don't expect the run game to be all that impacted by his presence. Even against N'ata, who I agree is scarier, our runs up the middle (if memory serves) were often met not by him but by the Ratbird linebacking corps which is vastly more physical than the Jackers'.

[isfry Profile]

Actually, according to this article, I do not know what the hell I'm talking about. Raji is apparently extremely fast. However, he also does not seem to line up in a traditional NT position opposite the center all that often, which may minimize Lego's troubles..

http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2011/02/04/pay- ... ype/#cntnt

[stillcello Profile]

Awesome breakdown, thanks... and despite any defending of Lebeau I might partake in (or at least my objection to his outright vilification on this site) , I agree in that I would much rather "go down swinging" on defense with too much pressure or blitzes vs. not enough...especially against a QB who is fast with his mind and his feet. All the evidence points to that fact that if we do not apply quick pressure, we have little chance in stopping Rodgers... unless we knock him around early or he's just too nervous (see: Ben, SB XL) to perform at his usual level. However, there i no evidence that he will play nervous. This is not Joe Flacco in that you cannot bank on the fact that he'll make that crucial mistake late in the game.... Rodgers, when protected, is an excellent decision maker.

Also, in addition to any faults you have with LeBeau, notice that in that article Mill references, the one "unnamed AFC coach" references the people to stay away from in the secondary is Taylor and Polamalu, which confirms what most fans already know: that McFadds, Gay, and Clark are weaknesses that can be exploited with good offensive scheming and protection and could easily be the primary reason(s) we lose.

I hope the defense does not get gassed, which mean I hope the Steelers can put together some nice drives even without Pouncey.

One thing I'm in total agreement with Mill about, going back to the FWP days...is this total neglect of the RB passing game.... part of it is that Ben just never looks to check down.... I mean... only after about 14 seconds will he take a peek over at the sidelines where Mendy is usually wide open. I hope early in the game Ben does not just look for the home run on every play and keeps some drives alive by taking the 'easy money' and use Mendy with some check downs and designed screens or flares, etc.

But I wish Arians could channel his 'inner Andy Reid' sometimes and use the short passes more to open the run game....espcially with our weak-asses O-line

Re: Heath.... I have read (and saw) that he has a *monster* blocking game vs. the Jets so I'm hoping he can really help out the line on running plays.

Either way, Ben's going to have to play at least as good as SB XLIII and probably a bit better to seal the deal on this one.

OK, is it Sunday yet?!

[StillDodger Profile]

I kind of like "Peckers" more than "Jackers"...............

[relictele Profile]

I regard the Packers as a kind of wind-up doll that will do the same thing in every game - it seems to be McCarthy's MO and now that Rodgers has some experience this combination has produced better results (obviously).

Unfortunately for all the national and local media talk of the Steelers' consistency, tradition, trademarks etc. etc. Mill is correct to point out that the team is maddeningly mercurial as the 1st/2nd half dichotomies in the playoff games demonstrated. But these ups and downs are almost strictly the result of coaching decisions by the OC/DC.

In addition to playcalls that cause onlookers' hair to be torn out in clumps, Arians is overly fond of the decoy strategy, ignoring top talents while putting the ball and the outcome in the hands of bit players. The long pass against the Ravens was a gutsy call but it was still a huge gamble that used an inexperienced WR. "But that's what it takes to win tight postseason games" - I agree to a point and there's no doubt that opposing defenses key on the best players but talent trumps systems and playcalls which is why it drives me insane to see Heath Miller underutilized game after game. Color commentators' favorite cliche is "run a play until they stop it" but Arians often erects the hurdles himself (except for his beloved 22 Double for which the Pack will certainly be watching).

I don't necessarily disagree with Mill or other LeBeau critics but the easiest thing in the world is to say "if we had just blitzed there we would have blown the play up" (and I say this having done same hundreds of times myself). It's hindsight dressed up with statistics but hindsight nevertheless. NFL coaches - top men and/or assistants - cannot help but play the percentages which is why the dreaded prevent defense makes an appearance in big games even when it runs in total contrast to a team's scheme or personality from training camp through the postseason. Coaches sitting on the smallest of leads seem blinded by the lights of the game clock (i.e. run it down no matter how heart-stopping the process) as well as the light glinting off the Vince Lombardi trophy (at least in their imagination). Coaches of high-flying offenses and defenses at all levels are guilty of it. Greatest Shows On Turf and Blitzburghs revert back to their genetic origins and suddenly it's Army-Notre Dame in 1945 again.

At this point even the Steelers' offensive players believe that the defense will win it for them and while they may be right they should also be mentally prepared to assume that responsibility if and when the Packers strike deep. GB WRs vs PIT DBs is probably the biggest mismatch in the game and you know they are itching to air it out early. Pouncey was never going to play but he got the lion's share of the media's insatiable desire for injury updates. By design or accident, Polamalu got lost in the injury report shuffle but he is nowhere near match fit. He looks to be in for a busy day in pass support but his limited range and speed will hinder this effort and it goes without saying that his usual mind game dances around the LOS will have to be shelved.

The image-conscious NFL likes all the technical whiteboard X and O talk but the reality is that the Packers will be plotting to administer hits on Ben's lower half. Ben already had a gimpy foot and now he's got a thigh bruise as a bonus. He will be rubbed down, warmed up and possibly numbed up prior to the game. The warm dome environs will help but the fact remains that he is hobbled to a degree and he can expect a steady diet of Clay Matthews edge rushes.

The point of all this is that the Packers, not the Steelers, will jump out to an early 10 or 14 point lead by exploiting the secondary. Will a temporarily demoralized defense respond? Cue use of the term 'veteran' approximately 1,500 times by the Fox crew (lucky for us Dan Dierdorf works for CBS).

While the rest of us suffer a sequence of heart attacks, Tomlin has seemed very content to win games in the 24-17 range and there is no reason to believe he won't aim for a similar margin here. But if the defense is being shredded will they have Plan B in place given that Plan A is to kill the clock (again)?

[IronCity__Man Profile]

clay matthews typically plays on the D's left side so will be facing flozell adams not Scott most if not all of the game. This helps out in the passing game but hurts that we like to run to flozell's side.