View topic - Steelers Playoff Scenarios

[stillDrink Profile]

Here they are:
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) –
Would clinch No. 5 seed with win and New York loss and Baltimore loss and Houston loss.
Would clinch No. 6 seed with win and either
1) New York loss and Baltimore loss and Denver loss and Houston win, or
2) Houston loss and either New York loss or Baltimore loss.

Eliminated with loss or 1) New York and Baltimore wins, or 2) Houston win and New York, Baltimore or Denver win.

[StillMill Profile]

This may be easier to follow (or perhaps more confusing)....

The National Football League this morning developed a scenario in which the Steelers can make the playoffs as one of two wildcard teams from the AFC.

It is not easy. The Steelers will clinch a playoff spot this weekend if any one of the following three steps is met in its entirety:

1) Steelers win and Houston loses or ties, and New York Jets lose or tie.

2) Steelers win and Houston loses or ties and Baltimore loses or ties.

3) Steelers win and New York Jets lose or tie and Baltimore loses or ties and Denver loses or ties.

The Steelers finish their season newst weekend in Miami. Houston plays New England. The Jets
play Cincinnati. Baltimore plays Oakland. And Denver plays Kansas City.

[AzSTILLERS1989 Profile]

ohh boy , dont think i have ever seen such a crowded wildcard deciding weekend in my life.... i hope to god we get on of those 3 scenarios,,,,,,


LETS GO STEELERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PGHeaven Profile]

This may be easier to follow (or perhaps more confusing)....

The National Football League this morning developed a scenario in which the Steelers can make the playoffs as one of two wildcard teams from the AFC.

It is not easy. The Steelers will clinch a playoff spot this weekend if any one of the following three steps is met in its entirety:

1) Steelers win and Houston loses or ties, and New York Jets lose or tie.

2) Steelers win and Houston loses or ties and Baltimore loses or ties.

3) Steelers win and New York Jets lose or tie and Baltimore loses or ties and Denver loses or ties.

The Steelers finish their season newst weekend in Miami. Houston plays New England. The Jets
play Cincinnati. Baltimore plays Oakland. And Denver plays Kansas City.

I said this before. What this give us, IN HAND, is one more week of intrigue and reason to take in air. In no way, should we be disappointed if the Gods do not part the Wildcard Sea to allow us into the playoffs.

[LambertoCincoOcho Profile]

All we had to do was win ONE game vs. Oakland, Kansas City or Cleveland and we would be in great shape as a wildcard.

[Fire Arians Profile]

All we had to do was win ONE game vs. Oakland, Kansas City or Cleveland and we would be in great shape as a wildcard.

we can thank mike 'cant win a trap game' tomlin for not getting our team even halfway ready to play against those lowly squads

[NiagaraBalls Profile]

I was watching the late edition of Sportscenter last night and Dilfer broke down the AFC WC scenarios and then analyzed what he thought would likely happen. Let's hope he's right because he had Bmore and us making it as the 5th and 6th seed based on our winning and the Jets and Texans losing.

One thing not many ppl. have mentioned in the whole playoff scenario is that we'll have Troy back this week. Even if he's not 100%, this should be a massive boost to the defense. Another thing is that there isn't a truly dominant AFC team this yr. Indy is probably the best but they've won some very close games where they were trailing late. Also, the Pats have stunk up a couple of games. We've already beaten the Chargers once, so you'd think we maybe have a feel for how to do it again.

Hopefully getting troy back will lead to an INT or two and might galvanize the rest of the defense emotionally just having him back on the field, boosting their confidence. I'm cautiously optimistic that things just might bounce our way this Sunday. Something to note is that we've lost to the bad and decent teams while beating the good ones, seeming to play to the level of the opposing team. If that trend continues, maybe we come out strong against playoff caliber teams.

[grubbymolson Profile]

Whats Dilfer smoking,i would like some !!! you have to figure cincy and NE will be resting there players at some pt during the game,both games are on the road(cincy,NE)and I assume both those head coaches would rather see the jets or houston in the playoffs rather then the stillers!!!?

[MDSteelersFan Profile]

Here's the way I'm looking at it. If I am still watching football at 4:30pm on Sunday (meaning the Steelers beat the 'Fins):

A) If New England won:

EITHER Cincinnati (vs. Jets) OR Oakland (vs. Baltimore) must win. If one of these happen we play in New England as the #6 seed. If BOTH of these happen we play in Cincinnati as the #5 seed (I really want the Bungles, I really, really want to send them out one and done just like in '05 - only this time with crybaby Carson playing the entire game).

B) If Houston won it is probably a lost cause....

The Jets, Ravens and Broncos (vs. KC) ALL MUST LOSE. The Steelers would then play in New England at the #6 seed.

Either way, the Steelers will have a chance if they win.

[lloydgreene Profile]

Circumstances beyond my control kept me away for a while. It's probably a good thing cause I would have been booted for cussing.

Here is my playoff scenario.

If the Ravens lose, and the Jets Lose and the Lakers lose and Obama starts lowering taxes, and the moon starts turning green, and...

OR... We don't let the Raipers, Brownies and Chefs embarrass us with BS losses earlier this year. Any one of those games has a different outcome and we are in the driver's seat for a playoff spot. Any two of those games and we are a lock. Troy or no Troy, we gave up on the season by losing those games. We would not have to depend upon other teams losing had we not lost to the 3 worst teams in professional American football.

I would be happy if we made it in and would root for us to pull off another miracle. But we are playing shitty ball right now and do not deserve to be in the playoffs. I would rather see an upstart Houston or the Jets make it in than an underachieving Super Bowl rest-on-your-laurels team like the Steelers get rewarded for subpar play. Really! How long would we last in the playoffs anyway? We are too damned predictable and just plain average where we used to be dominant. We do not deserve the shot.

And I am the optimist who chastized all of you for giving up too early in the season. (1-2)

Here is to hoping we get in and somehow start to look like a professional sports team in the process.

[AzSTILLERS1989 Profile]

Here is to hoping we get in and somehow start to look like a professional sports team in the process.

[NiagaraBalls Profile]

For those who say this team doesn't deserve the playoffs, winning will just hurt out upcoming draft.....I ask inf the '74 Steelers deserved a playoff berth. They were pretty bad even at mid season. Terry lost his starting role twice and ppl. were hanging him in effigy at Three Rivers. By most ppl's. standards they may not have deserved a berth, but it they ended up with a Lombardi over a heavily favored Vikings team.

If they made it happen in '74 with talented players producing subpar results for a good part of the season, then they can make it happen this year too. I say play to win and hope for the best. We may not make it, we may be one and done....or we may just continue the recent winning streak and get hot when it counts.

I can't see the Pats mailing in a performance. I bet they put up a couple of TD's w/ the starters, then sit them. THEN let Sanchez throw a pick 6 or two and come away w/ the win we need. Cincy's backups at running back are still top notch w/ LJ being 2nd or 3rd string. They may get a TD or two w/ Palmer and then have LJ grind it out w/ another TD and some clock chewing long drives. There's hope, still.

[Nashsteeler Profile]

I can see NE winning their game, yeah. Belicheat, for all his faults, rightly values going into the playoffs on a high note. God, it sucks to have to root for the Patriots. I'm really hoping the Raiders continue their strong play against quality teams (wins vs Steelers, Eagles, Doncos, Bungals) and knock of the Mavens too so I don't to root for the Bengals too. That would hurt.

Thing is, if the Pats DO win, the Bengals will know by the time they play, and wouldn't even have the 3 seed to play for (Pats get that seed based on conf. record if both tie). In that scenario, I'd be willing to bet we see the younger Palmer at QB the entire game, and very little of Ced Benson or Ochocinco. In addition to being treated to a snoozer of a 6-3 regular season finale in that case, it's highly unlikely that the Bengals would prevail, especially given the propsect of facing the Jets or the Steelers the following week. Not only are the jets awful at the QB position right now, but given the familarity that comes with playing a team two weeks in a row, I'd expect Zimmer to be able to shut down the "Sanchise" completely in any potential wild card tilt.

Just my two cents.

[MDSteelersFan Profile]

I can see NE winning their game, yeah. Belicheat, for all his faults, rightly values going into the playoffs on a high note. God, it sucks to have to root for the Patriots. I'm really hoping the Raiders continue their strong play against quality teams (wins vs Steelers, Eagles, Doncos, Bungals) and knock of the Mavens too so I don't to root for the Bengals too. That would hurt.

Thing is, if the Pats DO win, the Bengals will know by the time they play, and wouldn't even have the 3 seed to play for (Pats get that seed based on conf. record if both tie). In that scenario, I'd be willing to bet we see the younger Palmer at QB the entire game, and very little of Ced Benson or Ochocinco. In addition to being treated to a snoozer of a 6-3 regular season finale in that case, it's highly unlikely that the Bengals would prevail, especially given the propsect of facing the Jets or the Steelers the following week. Not only are the jets awful at the QB position right now, but given the familarity that comes with playing a team two weeks in a row, I'd expect Zimmer to be able to shut down the "Sanchise" completely in any potential wild card tilt.

Just my two cents.

I dunno. If the Pats have won, then the Bengals will get the Jets two weeks in a row with a loss - no matter what happens in other games. I don't think any coach would like the prospect of playing a team that just beat you the week prior in the first round, even if they did beat your scrubs. If I were Marvin Lewis I would want to make the Jets the first team the Bengals eliminate, not GIVE (literally) them the chance to take two in a row and send my team packing. I am certain Belichick will treat the Houston game this way.

[ChumChurum Profile]

Thing is, if the Pats DO win, the Bengals will know by the time they play, and wouldn't even have the 3 seed to play for (Pats get that seed based on conf. record if both tie).

While there is a high probably that a Pat win over Houston gives Pats 3rd seed, it will not be because of the conference record. If both Pats and Cin win, then their conference records will be identical 8-4, and tie-breaker number 4, Strenght of Victory, applies. 1 (head-to-head) and 3 (common games) do not apply because Pats did not play Cin, and 2 is the conference records, which is identical for both teams.

As of now, Pats hold the tiebreaker according to 4, but Cin has an outside chance of winning that tie-breaker (albeit very small).

[ChumChurum Profile]

But you do have a point.

If every team plays selfishly, with the objective of maximizing their play-off seeding, then the current chronological ordering of the games (1) NE - HOU, (2) CIN - NYJ, is kind of bad.

Obviously, by far the best ordering would have been simultaneous games. But an opposite order of games would have been better for Stillers.

If the order were opposite, then a CIN loss plus the outcome of additional games would nearly render the NE - HOU game meaningless. However, CIN would try to win, and a CIN win would make the NE - HOU game very meaningful for NE, and NE would try to win.

Now, an NE win almost renders the CIN - NYJ game meaningless. Almost, but not completely.

Furthermore, stillers would greatly benefit from WIN and WIN outcomes (NE win over HOU and CIN win over NYJ).

The current ordering of games does not help that cause. If NE drops their game, or simply loses it, we are already screwed, and if NE wins, then CIN can still drop their game for not much cost.

In the opposite ordering, CIN win would force NE to WIN. And CIN would have a huge incentive to win.

[ChumChurum Profile]

Also, as a Stiller fan, you can "pay" for Stillers to make the playoffs (or maximize their chances) or receive (get paid) otherwise.

Basically, you gamble on those outcomes that affect Stiller's play-off chances. You pay (lose) if Stillers make the playoffs. You receive (get paid) if Stillers do not make the playoffs. Think of this second as a consolation price.

Assuming a 50-50 chance (or slightly different to reflect the favored team), consider all possible outcomes of the 5 games that matter:

NE - HOU
CIN - NYJ
BAL - OAK
DEN - KC
PIT - MIA

There are total of 2^5 = 32 outcomes (excluding ties, or if you carefully account for playoff implications in case of a tie). But only 1/8th of those outcomes allow the Stillers to get in.

You basically take a bet accordingly, considering the joint outcome distribution of all the 5 games.

Or, simply put, if a bookie offers an outright bet for Stillers to: (A) make the playoffs, or (B) Not make the playoffs, at a fair price.

[LenSherwood Profile]

Betting on the Steelers to make the playoffs is a sucker's bet this year. Only the most stupid homer would make that bet. I wouldn't even bet on them to beat the Dolphins (been watching the past two months?)

[Nashsteeler Profile]

Betting on the Steelers to make the playoffs is a sucker's bet this year. Only the most stupid homer would make that bet. I wouldn't even bet on them to beat the Dolphins (been watching the past two months?)

depends on what kind of odds I'm getting .

In any event, yeah, they need to take care of business against Miami, first. It woulda been better, obviously, had miami not gotten themselves in a hole early against the Texans last week and ended up losing that game. It might have meant a tougher fight against a Miami team that still had playoff hopes, but the Texans being eliminated would have greatly helped the Steeler playoff chances, and you gotta beat Miami regardless.

Tomlin is making all the right noises in the media about just focusing on what the Steelers can control. Lets hope thats where the team's focus is. I actually do like Woodley's comments yesterday, lol - Who knows....maybe him saying that will goad the Bungals into playing a little harder.

[VegasSteelerFan Profile]

Here is the biggest problem of all - CINCY is going to lay down to the Jets this weekend, there is no way they are going to allow the Steelers a chance of getting in...so that is one game already off the board...I hope I am wrong, but if you were Cincy who would you rather face the Jets back to back or possibly the Steelers...common sense I would think...hope I am wrong and they are stupider than I think and they win.

I still have no friggin clue what the hell INDY was doing last weekend...how do you give up a possible undefeated season like that is beyond me and in pitiful fashion I might add.

I hope we go out in style at least with a winning record and beating the piss out of the dolphins, no easy task, especially since our secondary makes every QB look like the next Montana.

GOODLUCK!