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New Article: Best Bet Plus Two (Thanksgiving)
by trenches » Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:35 pm
Best Bet Plus Two (Thanksgiving) has been posted by Steel Haven at Stillers.com.
- Steel Holiday
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Re: New Article: Best Bet Plus Two (Thanksgiving)
by Steel Holiday » Thu Nov 26, 2009 2:53 pm
I picked a couple correct last week and now I think I'm wise...
Dallas -13.5 over Oakland- I don't like giving so many points. It is not something that pays off frequently. I am confident in this one though. Oakland might play with Dallas for a quarter or so. The Cowboys defense will likely take the Raiders best punch as Dallas looks to get the ground game going with their running back trio. Given time the penalty machine that the Oakland franchise has traditionally been will emerge, and Gradkowski will not be overly efficient in combating this issue. Once he turns it over, Romo should be able to take some shots down the field. The Raiders rank #12 in pass defense yards per game, but in the bottom 5 for yards per attempt. Cincinnati was one play away from finishing off Oakland last week, but didn't have the killer instinct. Dallas will find that killer instinct, and the Oakland home crowd won't keep them in this one. All 3 Dallas backs are better than anything the Bengals had last week and can be explosive if Oakland gets caught on its heels. Oakland can have +20, bitch please. What do you got?
Denver +6.5 over NYG- This should be a great game. Both teams need a win. Despite the fact New York is exceptional on the road, Denver looks to have great value to me vs. a New York team that couldn't close out the Falcons till overtime despite have separate 10 pt leads. The Giants will probably move the ball, unlike Dallas, they play their best against 3-4 fronts. I expect them to kick 3 FGs or so because Denver will play inspired all night long to avenge a beating vs San Diego. Denver will make some plays in the passing game provided that Orton is the quarterback. New York, much like Pittsburgh, doesn't seem to have anyone who can force turnovers right now...Imagine if these AFC west vs NFC east opponents were flopped. Meaning Oakland +7.5 @ home vs Dallas and New York -12.5 @ home vs Denver. Thanksgiving in recent years has been a day of betting even dummies could win on. I'm not going to out think myself here and predict the better teams to take care of business. A gambler with real grapefruits would consider Denver +245 ml, but alas I will settle on the points and take the lesser action.
Dallas -13.5 over Oakland- I don't like giving so many points. It is not something that pays off frequently. I am confident in this one though. Oakland might play with Dallas for a quarter or so. The Cowboys defense will likely take the Raiders best punch as Dallas looks to get the ground game going with their running back trio. Given time the penalty machine that the Oakland franchise has traditionally been will emerge, and Gradkowski will not be overly efficient in combating this issue. Once he turns it over, Romo should be able to take some shots down the field. The Raiders rank #12 in pass defense yards per game, but in the bottom 5 for yards per attempt. Cincinnati was one play away from finishing off Oakland last week, but didn't have the killer instinct. Dallas will find that killer instinct, and the Oakland home crowd won't keep them in this one. All 3 Dallas backs are better than anything the Bengals had last week and can be explosive if Oakland gets caught on its heels. Oakland can have +20, bitch please. What do you got?
Denver +6.5 over NYG- This should be a great game. Both teams need a win. Despite the fact New York is exceptional on the road, Denver looks to have great value to me vs. a New York team that couldn't close out the Falcons till overtime despite have separate 10 pt leads. The Giants will probably move the ball, unlike Dallas, they play their best against 3-4 fronts. I expect them to kick 3 FGs or so because Denver will play inspired all night long to avenge a beating vs San Diego. Denver will make some plays in the passing game provided that Orton is the quarterback. New York, much like Pittsburgh, doesn't seem to have anyone who can force turnovers right now...Imagine if these AFC west vs NFC east opponents were flopped. Meaning Oakland +7.5 @ home vs Dallas and New York -12.5 @ home vs Denver. Thanksgiving in recent years has been a day of betting even dummies could win on. I'm not going to out think myself here and predict the better teams to take care of business. A gambler with real grapefruits would consider Denver +245 ml, but alas I will settle on the points and take the lesser action.
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