View topic - properly adjusted strength of schedule stats for 2008

[logjammin Profile]

So anyway, here's each team's opponents' win-loss record NOT COUNTING GAMES AGAINST THAT TEAM ITSELF. Why disregard the games against the team in question? Because otherwise a game won by team X makes team X look bad and a game lost by team X makes team X look good. (Every game your team wins will add another loss to your opponents' aggregate record.)

For example, the Carolina Panthers' opponents had a total overall record of
125-131
which is below .500
but if you suptract out the 4 wins and 12 losses that their opponents had in games against Carolina, the adjusted Strength of Schecule for Carolina is 121-119 which is one game above .500 (not 2 games, but 1 game above .500).

So why doesn't the playoff tiebreaker regarding strength of schedule require those games against the team itself to be subtracted out? Several good reasons:
1) It's easier to compute the way it is.
2) It's easier for most fans to understand what the hell the rule is.
3) It's irrelevant for tiebreaking purposes whether or not the opponents' games against the team itself are disregarded, since the teams tied for a playoff spot have the same win-loss record; in other words, they have contributed the same number of losses and wins to their respective opponents' aggregate records. So why bother confusing people?

Cleveland 133-104-3 .560
Pittsburgh 129-108-3 .544
Cincinnati 130-110 .542
Baltimore 127-110-3 .535
Detroit 127-113 .530
Jacksonvil 126-113-1 .527
Philadelp 125-115 .520
Houston 124-115-1 .519
NY Giants 123-114-3 .519
San Dieg 124-116 .517
Kansas C 123-116-1 . 515
Indianapo 123-116-1 .515
Minnesota 123-117 .513
St. Louis 122-117-1 .510
Oakland 122-118 .508
Carolina 121-119 .504
Dallas 119-118-3 .502
New Orlea 119-121 .495
Green Ba 119-121 .495
New Engl 118-122 .492
Arizona 117-122-1 .490
Tampa Ba 116-124 .483
Seattle 115-124-1 .481
Washingto 113-124-3 .477
Tennessee 114-125-1 .477
Chicago 114-125-1 .477
NY Jets 113-126-1 .473
Miami 113-127 .471
Atlanta 112-127-1 .468
Denver 109-131 .455
Buffalo 107-133 .446
San Francis 105-134-1 .440

[Steel Keeper Profile]

So anyway, here's each team's opponents' win-loss record NOT COUNTING GAMES AGAINST THAT TEAM ITSELF. Why disregard the games against the team in question? Because otherwise a game won by team X makes team X look bad and a game lost by team X makes team X look good. (Every game your team wins will add another loss to your opponents' aggregate record.)

For example, the Carolina Panthers' opponents had a total overall record of
125-131
which is below .500
but if you suptract out the 4 wins and 12 losses that their opponents had in games against Carolina, the adjusted Strength of Schecule for Carolina is 121-119 which is one game above .500 (not 2 games, but 1 game above .500).

So why doesn't the playoff tiebreaker regarding strength of schedule require those games against the team itself to be subtracted out? Several good reasons:
1) It's easier to compute the way it is.
2) It's easier for most fans to understand what the hell the rule is.
3) It's irrelevant for tiebreaking purposes whether or not the opponents' games against the team itself are disregarded, since the teams tied for a playoff spot have the same win-loss record; in other words, they have contributed the same number of losses and wins to their respective opponents' aggregate records. So why bother confusing people?

Cleveland 133-104-3 .560
Pittsburgh 129-108-3 .544
Cincinnati 130-110 .542
Baltimore 127-110-3 .535
Detroit 127-113 .530
Jacksonvil 126-113-1 .527
Philadelp 125-115 .520
Houston 124-115-1 .519
NY Giants 123-114-3 .519
San Dieg 124-116 .517
Kansas C 123-116-1 . 515
Indianapo 123-116-1 .515
Minnesota 123-117 .513
St. Louis 122-117-1 .510
Oakland 122-118 .508
Carolina 121-119 .504
Dallas 119-118-3 .502
New Orlea 119-121 .495
Green Ba 119-121 .495
New Engl 118-122 .492
Arizona 117-122-1 .490
Tampa Ba 116-124 .483
Seattle 115-124-1 .481
Washingto 113-124-3 .477
Tennessee 114-125-1 .477
Chicago 114-125-1 .477
NY Jets 113-126-1 .473
Miami 113-127 .471
Atlanta 112-127-1 .468
Denver 109-131 .455
Buffalo 107-133 .446
San Francis 105-134-1 .440

Because, by definition, they have the same record, therefore the difference between adjusted and unadjusted strength of schedule will be the same. Adjusted SOS will result in the same outcome as unadjusted SOS.

[logjammin Profile]

Yes, that's true when you're talking about playoff tiebreakers. Like I said, there's no need to make it more complicated when the teams being compared have the same record. But here, we're talking about all 32 teams' schedules, and comparing the overall strength of each team's opponents. So it's not fair to say that Detroit had a harder schedule than Pittsburgh because of the 12 extra games Detroit helped their opponents to win.

[logjammin Profile]

Notice that the AFC North teams are all grouped at the top? All of the other divisions are spread much more evenly throughout the list, but the AFC North teams are all clumped together (right at the top).

[Steelhope Profile]

i have a headache