View topic - WILL HOME FIELD REALLY HELP US?

[steelwest Profile]

With a view toward the upcoming Titans game, I think it makes sense to ask whether gaining the number one seed is really ultimately helpful for the Steelers? Analyzing our offense, we have a poor running game and, when we move the ball, we do it largely by passing. The cold, windy days in January in Pittsburgh do not lend themselves well to a passing/finesse type of offense. Teams with better running games (like the Titans) and less effective quarterbacks (see Titans) may acclimate better in those conditions.

The cold weather and poor field conditions also promise to slow down the speed of our defense which is likely our best asset. On a good field like in Baltimore, our defensive speed plays well. We can still stop other teams in good conditions -- the other teams can best stop us in Heinz field conditions. Like in the Dallas game.

As to the draw, right now number one would likely play the winner of Colts-Denver while number two gets an AFC East team or maybe the Ravens again. I can see how avoiding the Ravens is worthwhile, but Indy looks like the team to avoid the most. You probably get them in the first round with number one seeding.

The number one seed also brings the expectation of winning and the inflated ego of thinking you have shown you are the team to beat -- which prior years have shown is not the Steelers best road to the Super Bowl. Overall, it seems many of the factors may favor being number two. And keep in mind that our record on the road this year is stellar.

[isfry Profile]

This team can beat whomever, wherever, whenever, as long as we play our best. I have no problem going on the road in the playoffs, but I can't see how losing ANY game, even this Sunday's against Tenn, could be a good thing. p.s. our home record ain't too shabby, either.

[Jeemie Profile]

It's really sad that I'm seeing more "analyses" like this coming from Steeler fans, when we used to laugh at teams (i.e. the 2005 Patriots) when we perceived they were "tanking" games in order to get "favorable matchups" in the post-season.

There's only one acceptable strategy-win, and let the post-season chips fall where they may.

[catesinator Profile]

If we don't get the #1 seed it will be because we lost to Tennessee this weekend. This will make our game against Cleveland meaningless and Tomlin very well may bench the starters for the game to avoid injuries.

The Steelers then will have gone 3 weeks in between playing meaningful games and a month in between wins by the time they play their next game on January 10th or 11th.

Conversely, if the Steelers do get the #1 seed it will be because they beat Tennessee and Cleveland and they will have gone into the playoffs having won 7 games in a row with at least 3 of those (maybe 4) against playoff teams. They would enter the playoffs in the AFC with the longest winning streak of any team (assuming Indy drops the finale to the Titans after they bench the starters).

So yes, getting the #1 seed is important. It means we keep our edge going into the postseason. These aren't the Cowher Steelers. Playoff home games aren't a death sentence necessarily.

[Jeemie Profile]

BTW, if we win out, we'll finish 6-2 at home and 7-1 on the road.

With two blowout home wins, two close losses, with the rest being struggles.

And three blowout wins on the road, one stinker of a loss, with the rest being struggles.

If you ask me, home and road makes no difference- those records and performances are essentially the same.

[Steelhope Profile]

It's really sad that I'm seeing more "analyses" like this coming from Steeler fans, when we used to laugh at teams (i.e. the 2005 Patriots) when we perceived they were "tanking" games in order to get "favorable matchups" in the post-season.

There's only one acceptable strategy-win, and let the post-season chips fall where they may.

Jeemie....you are 100% right on

[Hagerstown Steelman Profile]

We definately want the #1 seed:

and for the following reasons:

1. These are not your Bill Cowhers Steelers. We have a vetran ladden team and I don't think Tomlin lets them get complacent. Plus the defense has so much pride I don't see a let down.

2. You always want a home game. Crowd noise helps our defense and even our offense(since there will be less noise with the other teams D on the field).

3. It would mean you are entering the season on a high note. I would rather head into the playoffs on a 7 game win streak than a possible two game losing streak. Most teams that go to the Super are those that enter the playoffs on a hot streak. (Us in 2005, Giants last year, etc). 7 wins in a row with 4 against possible playoff teams is a hot streak.

4. You can not tank a game near the end of the regular season to create a playoff matchup. After the wild card round the #1 seed plays the lowest seed left. Thus all we know is that we will not play the #3 seed (AFC East Champ) in the Divisional round. We could play the #4, 5, or 6 seed depending on who wins.

5.. #1 seeds in the AFC have a 38.9% success rate of reaching the super bowl. #2's are next at something like 27% chance and all others are a lot lower. Not a rock solid reason but still.

Win out, and let the rest of the conference worry about a January game in the Burgh.

[isfry Profile]

In West's defense, I don't think he ever advocated tanking the Titan game for the sake of the number 2 seed. I think he was just pointing out what could happen one way or the other.

[Hagerstown Steelman Profile]

SteelWest/Isfry;

Sorry, if my tone was taken the wrong way.

I know what our history is at home in the AFC championship game but we are still better off with the game in Pgh.

After we win the Tennessee game I think you will see some starters sit out in Cleveland. Or play a limited amount and if the game is in hand I think you will see guys like Ben, Willie, Harrison, and Troy take a seat.

[LambertoCincoOcho Profile]

I have been studying about that myself. I like our boys chances on a quality surface. We will see Indy again you can count on it. Way too early to talk about he would see in the divisionals.

[isfry Profile]

SteelWest/Isfry;

Sorry, if my tone was taken the wrong way.

I know what our history is at home in the AFC championship game but we are still better off with the game in Pgh.

After we win the Tennessee game I think you will see some starters sit out in Cleveland. Or play a limited amount and if the game is in hand I think you will see guys like Ben, Willie, Harrison, and Troy take a seat.

Reagrdless of the history, I agree, Hager. I want to play the AFC champ at home. Especially because it means we beat the Titans this Sunday.

[Stillustronic Profile]

I don't like our offense using silent counts due to crowd noise, and this just feeds into the propensity of getting in and off the plays so late that the opposing defense knows just when to tee off due to the expiring play clock.

How could anyone think playing on the road is an advantage in the playoffs!??!

Other than thinking a nice field helps our defense, well, let me tell you our home crowd helps our defense, hurts the opposing offense, and doesn't hinder OUR offense.


'It's really relatively simple when you break things down 'scientifically'.
___________________Nick Bakay

[WoodsonOfSteel Profile]

IMHO, I think the Stillers playing at Heinz is a huge benefit.

Sure... The conditions more-or-less have the same effect to both teams on both sides of the ball. The thing to consider is... The Stillers play on that mish-mosh half of their season. The grass (if you want to call it that) is always in baaad shape this time of year. It slows players down. Insert Captain Obvious joke here. As they play on it half their season, they certainly have an advantage because they already know what they can and can't do... Unless you're Willie Parker and played eenie-meenie-mynie-moe choosing your cleats.

The crowd too. Let's not forget about all the towel-waving, beer-guzzling, swear-word-spewing yinzers gettin' crazy in the playoffs. I've never been to a home playoff game but it is ALWAYS obvious to me how much more into the game the crowd is come playoff time opposed to regular season.

The field and the crowd SHOULD provide 'help' come playoff time.

Let's also keep in mind... No Kordell to screw things up... Or cheaters. (We should hope)

Here's to football!

[StillDodger Profile]

If we don't get the #1 seed it will be because we lost to Tennessee this weekend. This will make our game against Cleveland meaningless and Tomlin very well may bench the starters for the game to avoid injuries.

If the game ends up being meaningless, maybe we should allow Ken Dorsey to get a 300 yd game (provided he's capable of doing that against a "soft D"), and give the Clowns a false sense that he's OK.....

[rick723 Profile]

With a view toward the upcoming Titans game, I think it makes sense to ask whether gaining the number one seed is really ultimately helpful for the Steelers? Analyzing our offense, we have a poor running game and, when we move the ball, we do it largely by passing. The cold, windy days in January in Pittsburgh do not lend themselves well to a passing/finesse type of offense. Teams with better running games (like the Titans) and less effective quarterbacks (see Titans) may acclimate better in those conditions.

The cold weather and poor field conditions also promise to slow down the speed of our defense which is likely our best asset. On a good field like in Baltimore, our defensive speed plays well. We can still stop other teams in good conditions -- the other teams can best stop us in Heinz field conditions. Like in the Dallas game.

As to the draw, right now number one would likely play the winner of Colts-Denver while number two gets an AFC East team or maybe the Ravens again. I can see how avoiding the Ravens is worthwhile, but Indy looks like the team to avoid the most. You probably get them in the first round with number one seeding.

The number one seed also brings the expectation of winning and the inflated ego of thinking you have shown you are the team to beat -- which prior years have shown is not the Steelers best road to the Super Bowl. Overall, it seems many of the factors may favor being number two. And keep in mind that our record on the road this year is stellar.

No, but if they hang you with a new rope, the break is fast and clean

[Steel_Scrotum Profile]

If we don't get the #1 seed it will be because we lost to Tennessee this weekend. This will make our game against Cleveland meaningless and Tomlin very well may bench the starters for the game to avoid injuries.

The Steelers then will have gone 3 weeks in between playing meaningful games and a month in between wins by the time they play their next game on January 10th or 11th.

Conversely, if the Steelers do get the #1 seed it will be because they beat Tennessee and Cleveland and they will have gone into the playoffs having won 7 games in a row with at least 3 of those (maybe 4) against playoff teams. They would enter the playoffs in the AFC with the longest winning streak of any team (assuming Indy drops the finale to the Titans after they bench the starters).

So yes, getting the #1 seed is important. It means we keep our edge going into the postseason. These aren't the Cowher Steelers. Playoff home games aren't a death sentence necessarily.

Agreed, couldn't have said it better myself

[El Nino Profile]

not sure, i'm sure the crowd will help, but..

If we had a smash-mouth offense, i'd say yes, since ugly weather helps those kind of teams. However this year's offense looks more finesse to me than anything. Our most successful running plays aren't the smack you in the mouth kind, but off misdirections, and it's safe to say our biggest playmakers are in the passing game. Even arguable that our best RB right now is more of a receiving threat than a run threat. This offense performs better on a turf and in weather that benefits a finesse offense.

For defense, ugly weather benefits them.

So overall, it's a double edged sword. However if it helps the defense, I'll take homefield. They carried the team the entire season, and if we ride anything on the way to a SB win, it's gonna be the defense that continues to carry us.

[Hagerstown Steelman Profile]

Barring injuries in the last two games we could be healthier for the playoffs than at any time during the year.

I am not sure Willie is 100% but in 3-4 weeks he should be.
Plus Bens shoulder seems to be bothering him less and less.

Getting healthy and a bye to boot is a good combo.

Now let's kick the Titans to the curb.