View topic - I'm starting to think Santonio could be a bust

[DirtDawson Profile]

Now i'm not trying to dismiss him completely, but allow me to explain.




It started back in 1998. Kordell Stewart signs a massive contract extension, and the Steelers front office begins to devote draft picks to surround their newfound investment.


Hines Ward is drafted in the 3rd round, and not much is really expected of him. A possible #2 reciever to fill the void left behind by the productive Yancey Thigpen. Hines shows some signs of development, but the offense struggles, still missing what they believe is a void at the reciever position to complement the dominant consistant running game.



In 1999, the Steelers devote their first round pick to Troy Edwards, a relatively obscure reciever from a somewhat smaller school, whose college career is highlighted by two or three record-breaking performances. The front office had been constantly looking for that one big WR playmaker. He starts off with a decent year, when both him and Hines Ward gather 61 receptions in a season. Things began looking up.


Once again in 2000, the Steelers use their first round pick to grab ANOTHER reciever. This time it's a 6'5" prospect from Michigan State who really shined throughout his final college season and in the Citrus Bowl.


By 2001, the Steelers realize Edwards wasn't going to be what they initially thought he was when they drafted him. And Pittsburgh's passing game begins to thrive, with Burress and Hines becoming the first tandem to break 1000 yards each in the Franchise's history.


Plaxico continues to develop, as does Ward, and by 2002, Randle El is drafted with the 2nd round pick.


By 2003, many publications begin considering the Steelers reciever tandem to be one of the best in the league. If you remember reading articles back then you recall this being a somewhat popular notion.

Burress' performance, although not as productive, still aides the team by spreading opposing defenses and such.


During this stretch, Hines continues to be the most consistent producer, breaking 1000 yards for 4 straight seasons, and aided even further by the drafting of Ben Roethlisburger.



At the end of 2004, the Steelers had to come to a decision. Hines Ward, or Burress. And the right decision was made. Plexico goes off to the Giants and continues to produce as one of the most effective recievers in the league.


2005, Hines is the Super Bowl MVP. Troy Edwards is cut by the Detroit Lions. Randle El leaves to the Redskins.



With the huge void now in the position from the losses in the past two years, the Steelers use their 1st round pick on the very first reciever drafted in the 2006 draft, a draft class that is pretty much deplete of significant wide reciever talent.

And we also sign Cedrick "I can't controll my wife" Wilson to the team.



Santonio now enters his third season. With so much hype surrounding his upside the year before, everyone expected for him to have a breakout year.


In this current season, Santonio fails to produce a single 100 yard recieving game.


Yet Hines Ward, in his 11th season with the team, is still putting up solid numbers, clutch catches, and some very strong single game performances.





Now, i'm not comparing Santonio Holmes to Troy Edwards. Nor am I dismissing Santonio's contribution to the team.


But there are two things that history has dictated for recievers drafted on this team.


Firstly, by a reciever's third year, whether it be Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Randle El, or Troy Edwards, you tend to get a feel for how a player is going to perform.



Secondly, a reciever drafted in the first round comes with some pretty high expectations. And whether they live up to them or not cannot really be predicted.



I'm not saying Holmes is a terrible reciever. He's just underperformed tremendously this year. And i'm starting to wonder if he was really worth a 1st round draft pick, when guys like Hines Ward, and even Nate Washington are still showing more signs of reliability.

I don't think Santonio will ever be as great as Plaxico, or even Hines Ward is/was to the team. I know it's unfair to judge based on just one season. But even last year was pretty much decent at best. We're talking, for a 1st round draft pick.



With that being said, I'm really looking forward to seeing him Limas Sweed developes next season. If it wasn't for his injury his final year in college, had he continued on the performances trend he was one, he would've most likely have been a close to first round draft pick.

[Ben's Bad Shoulder Profile]

Not a bust, BUSTED again for some dumb drug or woman fightin thing.

Guy looks like a thug.

[Jeemie Profile]

Hines has had some clutch performances, but did you know he's dropped more passes this year than Santonio and Nate combined?

And not even Santonio had a game where he finished with 1 reception for TWO yards.

[zapunto Profile]

Hindsight is 20-20.

He did catch the winning TD on Sunday, and arguably made the biggest offensive play versus Dallas, beating Terrence Newman for that 50-yard bomb. Before that play, the game looked lost.

I don't think he is a bust, he's just solid but not that flashy. He isn't big like Plex, and not every sub-6-footer turns out to be Steve Smith. And while we took Troy and Plex in the mid-1st round, Holmes was a very late 1st rounder. His 5-year, $8M contract looks very manageable if you ask me.

-c-

[Hagerstown Steelman Profile]

I would not call Holmes a bust at all but I was expecting a more productive year.

I was expecting a more productive year. However, with the offensive troubles, Ward having a solid year, Nate more involved, and a few more passes to the RB's I am not sure how he can get 80-90 grabs in a year. With the issues on the o-line it is harder for him to get open for longer

I do think Holmes gets complacient on some plays and could be an overall smarter player.

He is the best deep threat we have had since Plex and I am glad Plaxico is no longer here. I will take Holmes any day. I also like the combo of Nate and Santonio as a double deep threat.

[StillMill Profile]

Now i'm not trying to dismiss him completely, but allow me to explain.




It started back in 1998. Kordell Stewart signs a massive contract extension, and the Steelers front office begins to devote draft picks to surround their newfound investment.


Hines Ward is drafted in the 3rd round, and not much is really expected of him. A possible #2 reciever to fill the void left behind by the productive Yancey Thigpen. Hines shows some signs of development, but the offense struggles, still missing what they believe is a void at the reciever position to complement the dominant consistant running game.



In 1999, the Steelers devote their first round pick to Troy Edwards, a relatively obscure reciever from a somewhat smaller school, whose college career is highlighted by two or three record-breaking performances. The front office had been constantly looking for that one big WR playmaker. He starts off with a decent year, when both him and Hines Ward gather 61 receptions in a season. Things began looking up.


Once again in 2000, the Steelers use their first round pick to grab ANOTHER reciever. This time it's a 6'5" prospect from Michigan State who really shined throughout his final college season and in the Citrus Bowl.


By 2001, the Steelers realize Edwards wasn't going to be what they initially thought he was when they drafted him. And Pittsburgh's passing game begins to thrive, with Burress and Hines becoming the first tandem to break 1000 yards each in the Franchise's history.


Plaxico continues to develop, as does Ward, and by 2002, Randle El is drafted with the 2nd round pick.


By 2003, many publications begin considering the Steelers reciever tandem to be one of the best in the league. If you remember reading articles back then you recall this being a somewhat popular notion.

Burress' performance, although not as productive, still aides the team by spreading opposing defenses and such.


During this stretch, Hines continues to be the most consistent producer, breaking 1000 yards for 4 straight seasons, and aided even further by the drafting of Ben Roethlisburger.



At the end of 2004, the Steelers had to come to a decision. Hines Ward, or Burress. And the right decision was made. Plexico goes off to the Giants and continues to produce as one of the most effective recievers in the league.


2005, Hines is the Super Bowl MVP. Troy Edwards is cut by the Detroit Lions. Randle El leaves to the Redskins.



With the huge void now in the position from the losses in the past two years, the Steelers use their 1st round pick on the very first reciever drafted in the 2006 draft, a draft class that is pretty much deplete of significant wide reciever talent.

And we also sign Cedrick "I can't controll my wife" Wilson to the team.



Santonio now enters his third season. With so much hype surrounding his upside the year before, everyone expected for him to have a breakout year.


In this current season, Santonio fails to produce a single 100 yard recieving game.


Yet Hines Ward, in his 11th season with the team, is still putting up solid numbers, clutch catches, and some very strong single game performances.





Now, i'm not comparing Santonio Holmes to Troy Edwards. Nor am I dismissing Santonio's contribution to the team.


But there are two things that history has dictated for recievers drafted on this team.


Firstly, by a reciever's third year, whether it be Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Randle El, or Troy Edwards, you tend to get a feel for how a player is going to perform.



Secondly, a reciever drafted in the first round comes with some pretty high expectations. And whether they live up to them or not cannot really be predicted.



I'm not saying Holmes is a terrible reciever. He's just underperformed tremendously this year. And i'm starting to wonder if he was really worth a 1st round draft pick, when guys like Hines Ward, and even Nate Washington are still showing more signs of reliability.

I don't think Santonio will ever be as great as Plaxico, or even Hines Ward is/was to the team. I know it's unfair to judge based on just one season. But even last year was pretty much decent at best. We're talking, for a 1st round draft pick.



With that being said, I'm really looking forward to seeing him Limas Sweed developes next season. If it wasn't for his injury his final year in college, had he continued on the performances trend he was one, he would've most likely have been a close to first round draft pick.

First off, this was a brilliantly written post by DirtDawson. If yer ever lookin' for a writing job, Dermontti, please let me know.

2nd, his concerns about Holmes plateuing in his 3rd season are valid concerns. I have long postulated that, aside from losing a large amount of time to injury or being a QB, an NFL player will reach his peak in his 3rd season. There are exceptions to every rule and Ward turned out to be 1 of them. I catch hell for my June 2001 article that chastised the extension of Ward. Nothing I had seen from Ward up to that point had led me to believe he'd be a 1,000 yd. WR the next 4 seasons. And, thru 2000, he never once made even 1 of those toothrattling pancake blocks that he started to make in 2001. In 2000, Ward's production decreased from 61 grabs to 48. His YPC increased, but his downfield playmaking on deep balls was marginal, at best, and it seemed like he had reached his peak. You could have argued that the offense in general sucked in 2000 and this bogged him down. Perhaps true, but also that season, Bobby Shaw, a reserve WR, snared 40 balls at a 16.8 YPC clip. If the offense and QB'ing sucked so bad, how did Shaw produce so decently? In all, the 48-catch Ward, at that time, looked like another Shaw. Luckily we extended him and the rest is history.

The jury is obviously still out on Holmes. This, his 3rd year, was supposed to be his "breakout" year. Obviously, no breakout has occured. He has plateaud. It's not merely the reception numbers, either. The game 3 days ago was a prime example......silly, careless fumbles (TWO of them) that could have cost us much, much more dearly than they did, plus a drop of a 5-yard pass that hit him right in the belly. He's under contract for '09, so luckily we can get another look at him and see if his 4th season will be the true "breakout" season or not. Obviously, another ho-hum season will be unacceptable.

[steelerette Profile]

Meh, I just chalked it up to Santonio smokin' a bit too much weed Saturday night. He'll be alright.

[Jeemie Profile]

First off, this was a brilliantly written post by DirtDawson. If yer ever lookin' for a writing job, Dermontti, please let me know.

2nd, his concerns about Holmes plateuing in his 3rd season are valid concerns. I have long postulated that, aside from losing a large amount of time to injury or being a QB, an NFL player will reach his peak in his 3rd season. There are exceptions to every rule and Ward turned out to be 1 of them. I catch hell for my June 2001 article that chastised the extension of Ward. Nothing I had seen from Ward up to that point had led me to believe he'd be a 1,000 yd. WR the next 4 seasons. And, thru 2000, he never once made even 1 of those toothrattling pancake blocks that he started to make in 2001. In 2000, Ward's production decreased from 61 grabs to 48. His YPC increased, but his downfield playmaking on deep balls was marginal, at best, and it seemed like he had reached his peak. You could have argued that the offense in general sucked in 2000 and this bogged him down. Perhaps true, but also that season, Bobby Shaw, a reserve WR, snared 40 balls at a 16.8 YPC clip. If the offense and QB'ing sucked so bad, how did Shaw produce so decently? In all, the 48-catch Ward, at that time, looked like another Shaw. Luckily we extended him and the rest is history.

The jury is obviously still out on Holmes. This, his 3rd year, was supposed to be his "breakout" year. Obviously, no breakout has occured. He has plateaud. It's not merely the reception numbers, either. The game 3 days ago was a prime example......silly, careless fumbles (TWO of them) that could have cost us much, much more dearly than they did, plus a drop of a 5-yard pass that hit him right in the belly. He's under contract for '09, so luckily we can get another look at him and see if his 4th season will be the true "breakout" season or not. Obviously, another ho-hum season will be unacceptable.

This entire post completely captures the danger of believing that by sitting and watching players on TV (or in the stands), we are collecting enough information, to a sufficient level of accuracy, to accurately predict the course of a player's development.

In fact, despite occasional anecdotal examples of us "being right", we do NOT, in fact, have sufficient information to do so, and when we "are right", it is often a matter of coincidence rather than any "cogent analysis" on our part.

In other words, there's a reason we drink beer and watch games on TV instead of being a coach, scout, or involved in player development.

And we should remember that, instead of getting some puffed-up sense of our own analytical abilities.

[StillMill Profile]

This entire post completely captures the danger of believing that by sitting and watching players on TV (or in the stands), we are collecting enough information, to a sufficient level of accuracy, to accurately predict the course of a player's development.

In fact, despite occasional anecdotal examples of us "being right", we do NOT, in fact, have sufficient information to do so, and when we "are right", it is often a matter of coincidence rather than any "cogent analysis" on our part.

In other words, there's a reason we drink beer and watch games on TV instead of being a coach, scout, or involved in player development.

And we should remember that, instead of getting some puffed-up sense of our own analytical abilities.

I suppose you have a valid point. After all, just look at the sheer omnipotence and papal infallibility of Billy Cowher....the genius who cut James Harrison (3 times, in fact), as well as Hank Fraley & Dan Kreider (cut him and kept Jon Wittman), and kept Mike Tomczak around for years upon years, and other brilliant decisions. We should all rightfully bow and defer to each and every decision made by the GM and the coaches, because, after all, "they are around the players each day and they know best...."

There probably is a reason Jeemster drinks beers and watches games on TV. There is also a reason why Mill, and a few others, don't drink beers while watching the games.

[Jeemie Profile]

This entire post completely captures the danger of believing that by sitting and watching players on TV (or in the stands), we are collecting enough information, to a sufficient level of accuracy, to accurately predict the course of a player's development.

In fact, despite occasional anecdotal examples of us "being right", we do NOT, in fact, have sufficient information to do so, and when we "are right", it is often a matter of coincidence rather than any "cogent analysis" on our part.

In other words, there's a reason we drink beer and watch games on TV instead of being a coach, scout, or involved in player development.

And we should remember that, instead of getting some puffed-up sense of our own analytical abilities.

I suppose you have a valid point. After all, just look at the sheer omnipotence and papal infallibility of Billy Cowher....the genius who cut James Harrison (3 times, in fact), as well as Hank Fraley & Dan Kreider (cut him and kept Jon Wittman), and kept Mike Tomczak around for years upon years, and other brilliant decisions. We should all rightfully bow and defer to each and every decision made by the GM and the coaches, because, after all, "they are around the players each day and they know best...."

There probably is a reason Jeemster drinks beers and watches games on TV. There is also a reason why Mill, and a few others, don't drink beers while watching the games.

Non sequitur

That is not what I said, nor does it follow that because I said we don't have enough information to make sound judgements that therefore the coaching staff is infallible.

Nice try, though!

[isfry Profile]

Great analyisis, Dawson. I think we need to recognize, though, as someone else pointed out that Hines is the possession receiver. He runs good routes, he's not gonna burn anybody downfield, and he (usually) has great hands. Santonio (or Plax for that matter) is largely a deep threat and, with Hartings and Faneca gone, no running game to speak of, and VERY LITTLE TIME for Ben, deep threats are not gonna get deep, and thus not going to be a threat. That having been said, I do not thus forgive Holmes for the two fumbles and the (at least) two drops in last Sunday's game. There are those who would say he is a deep threat ONLY, and his drops are a result of not being in his element or not being focused as he is not used as regularly as even last season. I am not persuaded by that. I do believe his "breakout" year has been at least in part hindered by the reality of our OL, but the lack of focus when he has a chance to make a play is inexcusable. He needs to step up every time Ben does throw to him, not just on the twice a month 50 yd deep routes. Just my opinion.

[catesinator Profile]

It seems to me that Holmes may never develop into the monster receiver we thought he might be. But he still remains a quality guy and if he is out of the lineup we lack a dimension to the passing game that Nate Washington and Hines Ward do not bring. For whatever reason he and Ben have not been on the same page this season.

[Jeemie Profile]

It seems to me that Holmes may never develop into the monster receiver we thought he might be. But he still remains a quality guy and if he is out of the lineup we lack a dimension to the passing game that Nate Washington and Hines Ward do not bring. For whatever reason he and Ben have not been on the same page this season.

If you can get a bunch of good receivers, you do not need a "monster" receiver.

[Steelhope Profile]

I remember an awful lot of you guys bragging on our offensive potential so much it seemed the only problem we would have was how to spread all the scoring around to all our offensive stars.....3 tight ends.....5 WR's ....Willie sprinting up and down the field....yada yada yada.......if we did not have a stellar defence we would be 3-11.

Holmes is not having a tremendous year but I,m glad we have him and if we beef up the O-line and Arians goes away next year should be even better.....
not to say I am not really really happy with how things are working out...this is another fun year to be a Stillers fan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[J & L Steel Profile YIM]

According to Mill,the ENTIRE team is a bust. It's a friggin miracle they're 11-3!!!

[DirtDawson Profile]

I suppose you have a valid point. After all, just look at the sheer omnipotence and papal infallibility of Billy Cowher....the genius who cut James Harrison (3 times, in fact), as well as Hank Fraley & Dan Kreider (cut him and kept Jon Wittman), and kept Mike Tomczak around for years upon years, and other brilliant decisions. We should all rightfully bow and defer to each and every decision made by the GM and the coaches, because, after all, "they are around the players each day and they know best...."

.

Not to mention, the release of Mike Vrabel, the contract extension to Chad Scott and Dwayne Washington.....



i'd love to write articles for this website btw, although i honestly believe my basis of knowledge for the team still needs alot of improvement.



On another note, you bring up the contract with Santonio ending in '09. Hopefully by then Limas Sweed will get a more serious look. I'm really thinking he can be a big deal.

Even during the preseason, you could see the potential with the caliber of receptions he had been making. I've followed him for a good amount of his career in texas, and I do see alot promise and reliability.

[Jeemie Profile]

I suppose you have a valid point. After all, just look at the sheer omnipotence and papal infallibility of Billy Cowher....the genius who cut James Harrison (3 times, in fact), as well as Hank Fraley & Dan Kreider (cut him and kept Jon Wittman), and kept Mike Tomczak around for years upon years, and other brilliant decisions. We should all rightfully bow and defer to each and every decision made by the GM and the coaches, because, after all, "they are around the players each day and they know best...."

.

Not to mention, the release of Mike Vrabel, the contract extension to Chad Scott and Dwayne Washington...

It's just amazing you guys never made it into coaching or player personnel.

Since every move you guys make would be spot-on, and every player analysis you make is top-notch, you'd be millionaires, and the teams you worked for would always get that Super Bowl ring.

This is what I mean by puffing yourself up.

[StillMill Profile]

It's just amazing you guys never made it into coaching or player personnel.

Since every move you guys make would be spot-on, and every player analysis you make is top-notch, you'd be millionaires, and the teams you worked for would always get that Super Bowl ring.

This is what I mean by puffing yourself up.

By the way, you'll note, Creamer, that I lauded Dawson, not yerself. And there was an obvious reason for that.

[westeelbelieve Profile]

it's hard to throw the ball while on your back courtesy of the O-line

[Jeemie Profile]

It's just amazing you guys never made it into coaching or player personnel.

Since every move you guys make would be spot-on, and every player analysis you make is top-notch, you'd be millionaires, and the teams you worked for would always get that Super Bowl ring.

This is what I mean by puffing yourself up.

By the way, you'll note, Creamer, that I lauded Dawson, not yerself. And there was an obvious reason for that.

That's the difference between you and me.

I don't look for lauding.

That's why I don't puff myself up.