View topic - playoff scenarios - AFC East

[stillcello Profile]

Anyone know the exact playoff scenario? Do we have tiebreak vs. Baltimore if we lose next week and we end up tied with them overall?

I think it comes down to the AFC East and the tiebreak of the AFC Record, so we would have tiebreak over the Jets and Dolphins (and we beat the Pats).... so we need 2 of those three teams to lose one game out of the next 3 and we could still get in if we lose out... We know at least one of these teams will lose a game as the Jets and MIA play each other....

So the only way the Stillers don't get in (assuming Indy and Balt end up ahead of us) Is if 2 of the 3 AFC East teams win out... so it would be:

Stillers - 10-6

AFC East Team - 11-5 - Division Winner
AFC Easy Team - 11-5 Wild Card
Miami or Jets - 10-6

***

Does this sound right?

[ILLSTILL Profile]

I can virutally guarantee the Steelers hold the tiebreak over everyone, because they've only lost to one single afc team.

[stillcello Profile]

agreed... everyone except Indy....

so they have the tiebreak over all AFC East teams as they all have at least 4 AFC losses and the most AFC losses that the Stillers could end up with is 3......

[Nashsteeler Profile]

Nah they could end up 8-4 in the AFC, not 3 losses. Final 3 are against AFC teams Ravens, Browns and Titans.

[Mrsteve Profile]

We are in pretty damn good shape right now.

A win against the Ravens clinches the division.

The only team with a comparable conference record is the Colts...who can't win their division anyway.

If we get to 11 wins, we would hold the tie-breaker with every AFCE team.

So...unless I am crazy....a win next week clinches the divsion AND a first round bye, doesn't it?

[stillcello Profile]

That's right... 8-4 in the AFC...

Either MIA or NYJ could end up 8-4 in the division as well... so the next tiebreak would be record against common teams, which plays out like this:

PITT VS. NYJ

PITT - 4-1
NYJ - 3-2

PITT VS. MIA

PITT - 3-1
NYJ - 2-2

***so it appears we still have the tiebreaker on NE, NYJ, and MIA

[shawnlucas Profile]

The Still wins and they've wrapped up at least the number 2.

If that doesn't happen, then the Steelers have to at least keep pace with the Rats to win the division, but I don't think there's much of a way for the Steelers to not get the number 2. It's possible, but highly unlikely.

I like to check out this page for the probabilities of each scenario.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

This page has clinching possibilities for this week only.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/steelersclinch.html

There's a bunch of other stuff on the site, too, including what if scenarios, etc.

I'm too tired right now to go through the scenarios. Besides, the only one that I'm interested in is beating the Rats this weekend to sew up that number 2 seed.

[grubbymolson Profile]

we can take all these scenerios out of the pitcure with a big win against the HATED ravens this week!!!! our dee is better then the ravens and i am sick of hereing about flaco,he has played bad the last three weeks and i expect it to contunue against the stillers!!!

[El Nino Profile]

I'm not concerned about what's going on in the east, we control our own destiny. What I'm worried about is the ravens game, they are looking very tough, and we haven't won in their house since 2002.

If we win this ravens game though, we should just about secure the #2 seed. With a loss though, the remaining games become must-wins if we want the #2 spot.

[steelwest Profile]

As to the scenario with the Ravens, I think we may have a problem with the tie-break there. If they have the same record and we lose to the Ravens and Tennessee, I think all the initial tie-breaks are even. It then comes down to strength of victory -- whatever that means. It may favor the Ravens.

Does anyone know the real answer? It should be ascertainable now. It means a lot as it could be the difference between second seed and sixth seed.

[isfry Profile]

I could be wrong, but if we have the same record, the same division record, and the same conference record, and we split the head-to-head, the next factor is strength of victory in that head-to-head, i.e. points scored. As such, we scored 23 in game 1 and they scored 20. If we lose Sunday (which I don't think we will) as long as we allow fewer points than 23, I think we get the tiebreak. Or is it strength of overall schedule?....aw, feck, let's just beat 'em!!!

[shawnlucas Profile]

The strength of victory is simply the strength of schedule against teams that the team in question has beaten.

Rats - 41-73-3 (0.363)

Steelers - 53-75-2 (0.419)

That's currently. If the Rats beat us, they get another 10 win team on their strength of victory and it becomes

Steelers - 53-75-2 (0.419)

Rats - 51-77-3 (0.401)

That's just quick math and it might be a little off, but we'd still hold that tie breaker.

Both teams winning out, it then depends on how their opponents do in the other game on their schedules. I could figure out the scenarios, but I spend my whole day trying to teach a bunch of freshman Algebra, so I'm not always in the mood to crunch numbers when I get home. I could keep working on the problem and get an answer by tonight.

I'd prefer just beating the piss out of the Rats and making all of this math talk moot.

EDIT for a quick update:

Nevermind, if both teams win out, the Steelers get the Titans (a 12 win team right now) and the Stains (4) on their SoV and that trumps the Rats remaining schedule of Boys and Jags (combined for 12 wins right now).

If the Steelers lose to the Titans and the Rats lose to the Jags, then the Rats will have the SoV tie break (due to beating Dallas with 8 wins vs. the Steelers beating the Stains with only 4 wins right now).

[isfry Profile]

thanks, prof. I thought it had to do with strength of schedule. As you said, if we just win (I think Ben is winless in his career in Baltimore, the "anti-Ohio") none of the math matters.

[zapunto Profile]

Another really good link:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

The outcome that makes me feel the best is the "Home Teams" scenario. If both BAL and PIT won out their home games ONLY (mind you, that means us losing to PIT and TEN), we're still the #2 seed, as BAL loses at DAL.

-c-