View topic - New Article: Cards and the Sup Bowl -- The Initial Key to Beating the RedBirds (Part 1 of a series)

[StillMill Profile]

Cards and the Sup Bowl -- The Initial Key to Beating the RedBirds (Part 1 of a series) has been posted by Still Mill at Stillers.com.

[Teegre Profile]

If the Cardinals go 4 wide, I would hope that LeBeau would be smart enough to switch out of the base 3-4.
I would suggest a 4-1-6.

Harrison, Keisel, Smith, & Woodley would be able to get pressure. Heck, the Steelers often rush just three (the DEs & Hampton)...so,these four would be decisively better.

Timmons would be my call for the lone LB...alas, it will be Farrior.

Each CB would play man on a WR:
Taylor on Fitz
McF on Boldin
Gay on Breaston
Townsend on Urban

Clark would be deep, to keep any short catches from becoming long RACs.

This would leave Polamalu to fly around (which is what he does best):
-sometimes pass-rushing
-sometimes doubling Fitz
-sometimes dropping deep into a zone
-sometimes...
You get the point.

That said, I think that the Cardinals will stick to 3 WRs and a TE (to protect Warner).
[Note: If Warner is hit enough, he will "demand" that two TEs be kept in, to protect against the pass-rush.]
Pressuring Warner is key.
I know, I know: Warner is great against the blitz...but, if he gets hit and/or sacked, he becomes below average. If he is given time, he will pick apart the Steelers.
Again, pressure is the key.

Also, keeping Warner on the sidelines is a must. Fitz can not score if he is on the sidelines.
Ergo, FWP needs to run for 150 yards...or more.

[steelcitymetal Profile]

well that article certainly was depressing...

[rifraff Profile]

Keep the receivers in front of ya, there gonna make some catches & hit em after the catch, ala Clark style, over & over.

& bring back the titty-jousting. haha

[stillgrill Profile]

Mill - once again, you are dead-on in analysis. There is no way the redbirds will try to play any smashmouth - they are gonna bring speed. Unfortunately, Taunto & SlowaFoote don't have any, but will play a lot due to their "smarts". Timmons should be used to blow up screens & do some inside blitzes. Warner has had fumble problems in his career & they need to exploit. I think defending the spread & TOP are 1 & 1A on their priority list. They need 10-11 play drives w/ FWP going for >125.

[Pommah Profile]

I don't think this one is too hard. Warner and his receivers cannot be allowed to get into rhythm. We know we can stop the run; we can stop anybody's run. But in our losses this season, and last, opposing teams were able to string together 10-20 yard passes and score TD's. Last year I don't think the Patriots even bothered to run the ball at the second half; why bother, you're going nowhere.

Pressure on the QB certainly helps, but Grimm has done a good job with the Card's line and while I expect pressure, that cannot be relied upon alone.

Despite the improved play of our secondary, Warner is a very accurate passer and their recieving corps is top notch, and they will catch passes. They just cannot be allowed to get into a rhythm that lets them move quickly down the field.

The way to do this is to duplicate what the Patriots did to the Warner-led Rams in SB36, which was a dusted-off version of Paterno's game plan from the 87 Fiesta Bowl. Hit the receivers hard off the line, and hit them hard downfield after they catch the ball. Rams fans complain to this day that their receivers were "mugged" off the line every play in that SB. So what if they were, they got away with it, as the tendency in SB's is to let them play the game and not throw flags that much. Maybe we get called for a couple of holding calls; so what? It's better than LF running free. We won't win that one. Hard hits make receivers change their patterns and their speeds, making it difficult for the QB to accurately predict their spot. Despite the current slobberfest over Warner, he's got a well-established rep as throwing picks when his receivers are played tight. The Iggles had the Cards beat, but then backed off on tight coverage, and got picked apart. Big mistake, play tight the whole game.

This is not a team to go all Sof-T defense on. We play their receivers soft, we are doomed.

Also, you KNOW Whiz is gonna call some tricky-do plays between the 40's. He can't help himself.

[McLovin Profile]

Certainly a lot of opinion in Mill's article to sift through. Yes Whiz likes 4 WR sets as its a staple of the spread. McLovin a fan of LeBeau but not sure he's going to heed Mills advice and come up with a brand new 4-3 alignment featuring Keisel and Smith as DTs. McLovin agrees Fat Casey provides zero pass rush on 3rd down and a better option needed but can't recall ever see Keisel at DT. We all want to see more Timmons and less Foote. But McLovin hasn't liked Timmons getting constantly stuffed by rbs while blitzing up the middle. Edge James great pass blocking rb dating back to his Indy days What you will see is a lot more nickel and dime packages hopefully with some of Tomlin's input as he has vast secondary experience learning under Dungy who knows a thing or two about the spread offense having coached with Tom Moore for so many years. It's been a while since we could say that the Steelers have the Dbs to match up with such an offense. Taylor, Mcfadden, Townsend, and Gay are quality foursome that most teams would kill to have a four WR set not as scary as Mill will lead you to believe.

The key to this game is that secondary vs. a terrific TRIO of wrs not just Fitzgerald. If Dick pays too much attention to him Boldin and Breaston can do damage in their own right. The Steelers need an early lead to take away what little balance cards get from their running game although theyve run better in playoffs. McLovin's big concern is can Taylor step up as he did in Super Bowl XL? The Seahawks certainly had nothing close to Larry Fitzgerald. Taylor can't play the way he did Sunday, back toward the ball when beat or the opposite 10 yds off the WR. It's a given his hands suck, but Taylors athleticism will be needed to jump with Fitzgerald. Troy and Clark will be there to double but is Ike up for this challenge?

[SteelPower Profile]

Our secondary will never be able to cover without pressure on the quarterback. I can still picture Warner in a Giants uniform coughing up the ball on four consecutive touches of the ball evrytime he was sacked. Harrison, Timmons and Woodley need to wreck havoc for us to be able to slow down the air attack. The other key will be a running game that grinds off a majority of the time off the clock and keeps the greatest show on turf II on the sidelines.

[McLovin Profile]

Our secondary will never be able to cover without pressure on the quarterback. I can still picture Warner in a Giants uniform coughing up the ball on four consecutive touches of the ball evrytime he was sacked. Harrison, Timmons and Woodley need to wreck havoc for us to be able to slow down the air attack. The other key will be a running game that grinds off a majority of the time off the clock and keeps the greatest show on turf II on the sidelines.

Pressure going to be tough. Another thing Mill hit on was the fact that the Cards have a quick passing game with Warner and his quick release relying on a short passing game with a lot of slants etc. Warner a statue and fumble prone, but he doesn't hold the ball very long. Warner won't have to go back to bagging groceries...he has a career in darts waiting for him. He's deadly accurate and whens hes pressured he just throws it as high and far as he can toward Fitzgerald. Here's hoping Woodley keeps his 2 sack parade going

[shawnlucas Profile]

well that article certainly was depressing...

No joke.

Good thing I've already resigned myself to a 3 TD loss for the Steelers.

Otherwise, come Feb 1st, I might just be in for a let down.

[StillMill Profile]

Certainly a lot of opinion in Mill's article to sift through. Yes Whiz likes 4 WR sets as its a staple of the spread. McLovin a fan of LeBeau but not sure he's going to heed Mills advice and come up with a brand new 4-3 alignment featuring Keisel and Smith as DTs. McLovin agrees Fat Casey provides zero pass rush on 3rd down and a better option needed but can't recall ever see Keisel at DT. We all want to see more Timmons and less Foote. But McLovin hasn't liked Timmons getting constantly stuffed by rbs while blitzing up the middle. Edge James great pass blocking rb dating back to his Indy days What you will see is a lot more nickel and dime packages hopefully with some of Tomlin's input as he has vast secondary experience learning under Dungy who knows a thing or two about the spread offense having coached with Tom Moore for so many years. It's been a while since we could say that the Steelers have the Dbs to match up with such an offense. Taylor, Mcfadden, Townsend, and Gay are quality foursome that most teams would kill to have a four WR set not as scary as Mill will lead you to believe.

The key to this game is that secondary vs. a terrific TRIO of wrs not just Fitzgerald. If Dick pays too much attention to him Boldin and Breaston can do damage in their own right. The Steelers need an early lead to take away what little balance cards get from their running game although theyve run better in playoffs. McLovin's big concern is can Taylor step up as he did in Super Bowl XL? The Seahawks certainly had nothing close to Larry Fitzgerald. Taylor can't play the way he did Sunday, back toward the ball when beat or the opposite 10 yds off the WR. It's a given his hands suck, but Taylors athleticism will be needed to jump with Fitzgerald. Troy and Clark will be there to double but is Ike up for this challenge?

Just a note, Mac. It's not THIRD down that I'm worried about. It's FIRST down, and SECOND down. This is when Fat Hampton is typically in the game. And if Cheezen goes 4 wides, he will essentially be playing 11 on 10. This is precisely what Brady did last Dec.....and yes, that 4-wide set is every bit as scary as what I am "leading you to believe". If ya don't believe it, GO BACK and WATCH the Pats game from last Dec, when they never ran the ball the entire 2H. They rendered Hampton meaningless and useless and played 11 on 10.

Further, Timmons has, in fact, CREATED PRESSURE and HARASSMENT on the QB. He did it vs. Balt as well as SD. He isn't the 2nd coming of Lawrence Taylor, but he aint chopped liver and is a far, far better option than anyone but Wood and Harrison. He is a MUCH better harassment option than foote or Hampton. Further, he is a MUCH better coverage guy and speed guy than Slow-a-Foote.

[Leo Profile]

I don't think this one is too hard. Warner and his receivers cannot be allowed to get into rhythm. We know we can stop the run; we can stop anybody's run. But in our losses this season, and last, opposing teams were able to string together 10-20 yard passes and score TD's. Last year I don't think the Patriots even bothered to run the ball at the second half; why bother, you're going nowhere.

Pressure on the QB certainly helps, but Grimm has done a good job with the Card's line and while I expect pressure, that cannot be relied upon alone.

Despite the improved play of our secondary, Warner is a very accurate passer and their recieving corps is top notch, and they will catch passes. They just cannot be allowed to get into a rhythm that lets them move quickly down the field.

The way to do this is to duplicate what the Patriots did to the Warner-led Rams in SB36, which was a dusted-off version of Paterno's game plan from the 87 Fiesta Bowl. Hit the receivers hard off the line, and hit them hard downfield after they catch the ball. Rams fans complain to this day that their receivers were "mugged" off the line every play in that SB. So what if they were, they got away with it, as the tendency in SB's is to let them play the game and not throw flags that much. Maybe we get called for a couple of holding calls; so what? It's better than LF running free. We won't win that one. Hard hits make receivers change their patterns and their speeds, making it difficult for the QB to accurately predict their spot. Despite the current slobberfest over Warner, he's got a well-established rep as throwing picks when his receivers are played tight. The Iggles had the Cards beat, but then backed off on tight coverage, and got picked apart. Big mistake, play tight the whole game.

This is not a team to go all Sof-T defense on. We play their receivers soft, we are doomed.

Also, you KNOW Whiz is gonna call some tricky-do plays between the 40's. He can't help himself.

-- Do not think the Pats' old strategy from their SB victory over Warner will work. Ever since the NE-Indy title game when NE mugged all of Indy's receivers, the officials have called a lot more PI down the field. Bill Polian's appeals to the competition committee that offseason worked.


-- Warner has, for the most part, cured his fumble-itis, partially with the gloves.


- I feel very good about a Stiller victory, but Mill's main point is solid. This type of offense (quick release, accurate QB with stud recivers, spread out) is the absolute best...maybe only....way for an O to beat the Stiller D.

[shawnlucas Profile]

I've heard this Brady/Warner comparison more than once. Even the guys on WEEI were making it the other day. Now, I know that Mill wasn't making the comparison, he was comparing schemes that might work similarly given a certain scenario, but he did mention Brady in comparison, so it got me thinking.

Are there really that many similarities between the two besides the fact that they both have quick releases? I'm not a fan of watching other NFL teams and I haven't seen Warner since he was losing 4 out of 5 fumbles nearly every game. Has Whizzer's influence really been that magic for the bag boy?

[StillViews Profile]

It is commonplace for defenses to go to their nickle or dime substitution package when the offense goes 3 or 4 wide regardless of down. I can't recall the 2007 matchup against the Pats but shame on LeBeau if he didn't go with an extra DB. The defensive lineup that you describe is the Stillers nickle package. They use this package more frequently than the dime this year because Timmons is so fast and versatile he can cover well, blitz or get to the back on a run play out of that formation.

I too would expect a smart man like Wiz to go with his teams strengths, so we will see a lot of 3 or 4 wide sets.

My keys are:

1 - offense needs to win the time of possession battle. Long sustained drives that result in TDs. Limit the Cards time of possession.
2 - defense needs to press the receivers. This isn't the Steeler style so I don't know if they can do it. Warner is a timing quarterback. The ball is coming out quickly so the pass rush will have a tough time getting to him and blitzing could be futile unless it is 3rd and long. As pointed out Warner has several downfield options as well as short route options and he makes his reads quickly. The DBs need to bump the receivers at the line of scrimmage and disrupt the timing of their routes.
3 - Win the red-zone battle. There will be some scoring no matter how galant an effort by the Steelers D, they need to hold the Cards to FG's more often than not. Conversely the Steelers O needs to convert TDs more often than not.

[Leo Profile]

I've heard this Brady/Warner comparison more than once. Even the guys on WEEI were making it the other day. Now, I know that Mill wasn't making the comparison, he was comparing schemes that might work similarly given a certain scenario, but he did mention Brady in comparison, so it got me thinking.

Are there really that many similarities between the two besides the fact that they both have quick releases? I'm not a fan of watching other NFL teams and I haven't seen Warner since he was losing 4 out of 5 fumbles nearly every game. Has Whizzer's influence really been that magic for the bag boy?

Don't want to over-hype the opponent, but I do want to give props (as the kids say) where they are due. The fact is that despite how we feel, Tom Brady is a great quarterback, and Warner is a very very good quarterback. Warner did have some bad years, but he seems to have recovered most of the mojo from his Ram days. I think Tomlin, LeBeau, and our D will rise to the occasion, but they will face a tough test with this redbird O.

[StillMill Profile]

It is commonplace for defenses to go to their nickle or dime substitution package when the offense goes 3 or 4 wide regardless of down. I can't recall the 2007 matchup against the Pats but shame on LeBeau if he didn't go with an extra DB. The defensive lineup that you describe is the Stillers nickle package. They use this package more frequently than the dime this year because Timmons is so fast and versatile he can cover well, blitz or get to the back on a run play out of that formation.

I too would expect a smart man like Wiz to go with his teams strengths, so we will see a lot of 3 or 4 wide sets.

Here's the issue -- You can't "go" to a package if it's NOT ALREADY on the field !! That's my point. You have to anticipate Cheeznhunt coming out on FIRST down with 4 Wides, 1 RB, and then exploiting the BASE defense. That is Cheezenhunt's MISMATCH in this chess game. Our base cannot cover 4 WRs of the caliber of AZ with a savvy, accurate QB like Warner. I'm well aware of what our nickel package is, and I'm advocating that it needs to be prepared to play on FIRST down, not only on 2nd & 9 or 3rd & 8. And yes, in the 2007 NE Pats matchup, LeBeau REFUSED to pull Hampton/Eason until 9:00 of the 4Q. By then, the ROUT WAS ON.

[Nel Profile]

It is commonplace for defenses to go to their nickle or dime substitution package when the offense goes 3 or 4 wide regardless of down. I can't recall the 2007 matchup against the Pats but shame on LeBeau if he didn't go with an extra DB. The defensive lineup that you describe is the Stillers nickle package. They use this package more frequently than the dime this year because Timmons is so fast and versatile he can cover well, blitz or get to the back on a run play out of that formation.

I too would expect a smart man like Wiz to go with his teams strengths, so we will see a lot of 3 or 4 wide sets.

Here's the issue -- You can't "go" to a package if it's NOT ALREADY on the field !! That's my point. You have to anticipate Cheeznhunt coming out on FIRST down with 4 Wides, 1 RB, and then exploiting the BASE defense. That is Cheezenhunt's MISMATCH in this chess game. Our base cannot cover 4 WRs of the caliber of AZ with a savvy, accurate QB like Warner. I'm well aware of what our nickel package is, and I'm advocating that it needs to be prepared to play on FIRST down, not only on 2nd & 9 or 3rd & 8. And yes, in the 2007 NE Pats matchup, LeBeau REFUSED to pull Hampton/Eason until 9:00 of the 4Q. By then, the ROUT WAS ON.

Let's hope that someone on the Steeler's team reads Mills' articles and catches this clue.

I'm pretty sure it would help. It had not occurred to me, but I am a stupid fvck.

[Teegre Profile]

One thing that gives me a lot of hope is the way in which LeBeau played against Flacco.

LeBeau dropped, at times, seven players into coverage (& only rushing four), daring Flacco to pass on them. Everyone thought that the Steelers were going to bum-rush Flacco...but, instead, Flacco looked perplexed.
NOTE: This is the exact same defensive scheme that the Patriots used on Big Ben as a rookie.

In other words,
1) LeBeau altered his normal defense
2) He used a "game plan" from the Pats.

Maybe (just maybe) LeBeau alters his defense to mirror the 2001 Patriots defense that beat Warner (and the GSOE-1).

[shawnlucas Profile]

That is a valid point, Teegre

I, too, was thinking that situations determine game plans and while the Patriots have repeatedly shredded the Steelers defense with their quick strike offense, I'm hoping that with 2 weeks, the fact that this is the Super Bowl (and not a regular season match up, which Mill has chosen as his comparison of choice), and Warner at QB instead of Brady that maybe, just maybe, things will turn out differently this time.

[wrknstiff Profile]

2 - defense needs to press the receivers. This isn't the Steeler style so I don't know if they can do it. Warner is a timing quarterback. The ball is coming out quickly so the pass rush will have a tough time getting to him and blitzing could be futile unless it is 3rd and long. As pointed out Warner has several downfield options as well as short route options and he makes his reads quickly. The DBs need to bump the receivers at the line of scrimmage and disrupt the timing of their routes.


This is precisely what they need to do.Giving the receivers 10+ yard cushions at the line of scrimmage will have Kurt Warner slobbering all over himself with the quick strike,like Tom Brady did last year.I do understand why we do it,to not get burned for the big play.We have to break up the timing,plus it gives the rushers just hair more time to get to Warner.