A Final Word on Tebow and the Stillers
Special
Commentary by PalmerSucks
January
14, 2012
I
can�t tell you how many times I�ve been asked � yet again -- �just how in the
hell did Tebow beat the number one defense�? I�ve covered the basics in my
previous piece, and for an even better explanation, you can read Mill�s work.
Allow
me to add a few points, though.
First,
take that �number-one defense� thing with a truckload full of salt: I�ve
mentioned many times that the Stillers are overrated in that regard. Yes, the
Stillers� defense ranks high in certain statistical categories, but it just
goes to show, numbers aren�t everything. I wonder if there�s a stat for
�game-losing drives given up late�? I�m sure the Stillers would rank near the
top.
Skip
Bayless claimed on ESPN that LeBeau�s made many young QBs look bad � the
reality is guys like Gradkowski have pulled off winning drives against the
mighty Stillers defense. So again, I guess we shouldn�t be shocked if even Tim
Tebow does the same thing.
Second,
you have to understand just how bizarre a passing performance this was. Tebow�s
316 yards came on just 10 completions, for a freakish 31.6 YPA. Your average
franchise stud puts up 316 yards, but it�s usually, say, on a 21-for-30 kind of
day. Tebow was great for 10 passes, and absolutely horrible for the other 11.
Again, that�s just a plain weird kind of performance.
Out of
those 316 total, one receiver, D. Thomas, accounted
for 204 yards! �Again, that�s just plain
wacky. Everything about this game had the feel of a 200-to-1 horse winning the
Kentucky Derby.
I
warned before the game that the Stillers should watch out for the unusual Tebow
first-down pass, and even that once-in-a-blue-moon event occurred � at the
worst possible time.
Here�s
another way of looking at things, a Palmer �original stat�: PPC, or �Points Per
Completion.� In Tebow�s case, that�s 29 points on 10 completions. That�s almost
3 points per completed pass! Cue that Twilight Zone music, we�re into some
weird territory here.
And
again, look at the first TD pass. Gay�s back is turned, but he�s screening out
almost the entire body of the receiver. There�s basically a single six-inch
spot to hit where his man could catch it � to Gay�s left. Did Tebow know to hit
that very spot, especially as he released BEFORE Gay made his move? If he did,
then it�s one of the greatest TD passes I�ve ever seen � if not, it was just
another whacked-out play in a game gone mad. I�ll leave it to you to decide
which.
In my
previous commentary I wrote:
�So, if Tebow is such an awful QB, how could he beat the �#1
defense�? �The answer is simple: he was
never asked to perform like an actual NFL QB. Not once did Tebow lead an
11-play drive � he scored the bulk of his points in one or two clusters, off a
few passes that went for huge yards. That�s cheap and deep, pure and simple.
Tebow played like a sandlot QB, and the Stillers defense obliged him. 10 for 21
is a pretty lousy day, passing wise. But when your receivers turn 15-yard
catches into 80-yard TDs, you can get away with it.�
Yesterday the Boston Globe put out an excellent piece called
�Belichick won�t make (the) same mistake (the) Steelers did vs. Tebow.� If you
have time, I urge you to read it here:
www.boston.com/sports/columnists/massarotti/2012/01/belichick_wont_make_mistake_st.html
If you don�t have time, take this section to heart:
�Against
an inaccurate and inconsistent quarterback who sometimes looks as if he's
playing pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey, the Steelers left themselves vulnerable to
the big play. Rather than make Tebow surgically maneuver his way down the field
- something he has not proven he can do - the Steelers allowed Tebow to play a
risk-reward game that Tebow exploited to the max.�
That�s
EXACTLY what I was saying: the Steelers failed to force Tebow to act like a
�normal� NFL QB, and allowed him to be the pub-team QB he is � with a bunch of
bombs that hit the jackpot. Had the Steelers tackled the Broncos� receivers
immediately after the catch, and forced Tebow to pass it 4, 5 or 6 times per
drive, I doubt he lives up to the task. Instead they gave up 4 home runs to a
hitter who can barely bat .120.
Quite
simply, Tebow got to operate in a comfy little bubble, with absolutely no
pressure on him all game. He was allowed to roll left routinely, and had not
one man in his face on any of his 10 completions. Once again, that�s a
completely flukish situation, which greatly contributed to the flukish and
unlikely win by Tim Tebow � still, in my opinion, a poor excuse for an NFL QB.
But it
just goes to show � play into any QBs hands, and even the worst ones can beat
you.
If
Tebow enjoys these same unlikely conditions Saturday, he has a chance to pull
off another upset � but somehow I doubt the Patriots will be so accommodative.
Nor do I think the Patriots will allow Thomas to go single-covered. I agree
with the Boston writer: I don�t think the Patriots will play Tebow as stupidly
as the Stillers did.
In a
way, though, I still can�t blame the team for playing like it did. �I can only imagine the laughter that must�ve
erupted during film sessions, as the defense watched the running comedy show
that is Tim Tebow. They clearly had no respect for his skill set, and who could
blame them? They played man coverage, which is fine, but often left no safety
back, daring Tebow to pass OVER them. Unfortunately for the Stillers, that�s
about the only way Tebow can beat you.
The
Stillers also played into Denver�s hands by actually respecting the college
read-option: witness Harrison biting on the fake hand-off. Why he even bothered
to play the back � and not go straight for the QB -- is beyond me. I watched
the New England-Denver game where the Patriots sent a guy to WHACK Tebow
regardless of whether he pitched the ball or not. This kind of free shot is
right in Harrison�s wheelhouse � he should�ve been coached to nail Tebow every
time. The Patriots wore down Tebow by smacking him again and again � unlike the
Stillers, who treated him like a precious Ming Dynasty vase.
A note
on the Broncos: they may have, in classic fashion, won the battle but lost the
war. As you probably heard, Denver was warming up Brady Quinn in the event
Tebow flopped. That won�t be happening now � Tebow�s �legendary� win may now
prod the Broncos into installing him long-term as their starter. Imagine the
uproar now in Denver if they don�t! �By
pulling off such a flukish win, the Broncos may be stuck with Tim Tebow for a
lot longer than they�d figured.
The TV
networks of course love it; ratings for Stillers-Tebow went through the roof,
and now Brady-Tebow premieres! The dumb public of course is all over Tebow�s
win, and the bandwagon � deserted during Tebow�s last three awful games � is
all aboard again. Let�s see how full it stays after Saturday�s game. My guess
is that the stubborn ones will stay -- thanks to the Stillers and the warm,
soft, fuzzy cocoon they created for Tim Tebow.