Best Bet Plus Two (week 15)

December 16, 2009 by Steel Haven

I broke .500 for the first time in over a month and a half. The underdog Chargers won outright in Dallas as I predicted. The surging Packers easily handled the fading Bears. Thank you Wade and Lovie. Kudos Romo-sexual¹ and Cutler-fucker.² Alas the Cardinals let me down. They failed to clinch the division due to six turnovers including four interceptions by Warner. Shit happens. Who am I to complain after the previous six weeks? The final three weeks can be a mine field. Some teams already have nothing to play for. Hell, the Colts have already clinched home field throughout the playoffs and seemingly want no part of going undefeated. Alas some teams with nothing to play for will still beat teams in desperate need of a win. It has happened before. It will happen again. I just hope to be able to stay above .500 on the season.

This week is more brutal than I even expected. And I expected it to be brutal. The teams I like are giving up way too many points. I loathe picking any of the teams I think are getting way too many points. My only loss from last week has become my best bet. My other picks are pure guesses on teams with wildly different motivations. A team that has nothing to play for that I think are simply too good to lose and a team in desperate need of a win in a divisional matchup against an eliminated opponent. Will I correctly read the talent level and motivations of the teams involved? Doubtful. Oh well.

Just as an aside, I was a little surprised to see the Steelers favored over the Packers. I understand this is based on trying to get an equal number of bettors to take both teams and is not indicative of what odds makers actually think will happen in a game. I understand the Steelers have a loyal following with a tendency to bet with their heart and not their heads. But don't the Packers have just as big a loyal following? What are betting Steelers fans thinking? Have they not been paying attention the last five weeks? I'm hoping the betting Steelers fan's confidence isn't misplaced. But I think it is....

¹ Stolen from username on KFFL forums
² Stolen from Kissing Suzy Kolber

home team in bold

Best Bet

Arizona Cardinals (-12) over Detriot Lions

I'm giving the Cardinals another chance. Warner is unlikely to throw four interceptions again and the Lions have the look of a team playing out the string. Which of course they are.... A win coupled with a 49ers loss in Philadelphia clinches the division for the Cardinals. That seems very likely to me.

Others

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts have repeatedly fallen flat in the playoffs after taking their foot off the pedal when clinching early. Would they let that happen again? Yeah, probably. I haven't learned from the past, why should the Colts? So why am I picking the Colts? What can I say? I really don't like any games and am gambling they will have too much pride to let their first loss come against a divisional foe. Actually as I've stated many times before I'm not really gambling. Just picking three games in an article posted on the web. Makes it easier not to care.

New York Giants (-3) over Washington Redskins

All road favorites. I haven't picked a home team in three weeks. This is a bitter inter-divisional matchup. That has gotten me into trouble in the past. The Redskins are playing better with Jason Campbell making a big salary push towards free agency. I shouldn't be picking this game. Especially with the Giants defense in complete collapse. I don't care. A Giants loss in this game just seems somehow unfeasible to me and the point spread is really low. Although watching Tom Coughlin's head explode on the sidelines if the Giants somehow lose would be fun.

Last week

Green Bay Packers (-3) over Chicago Bears WIN

San Diego Chargers (+3) over Dallas Cowboys WIN

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over San Fransisco 49ers LOSS

Record to date: 22-20 Best bets: 8-6

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