Best Bet Plus Two (week 9)

November 04, 2009 by Steel Haven

The good news.... I improved to 5-3 on my best bets winning a fourth straight. The Texans overcame an early fumble by Steve Slaton and rode Ryan Moats to a victory. The bad news.... I would feel better about this if I didn't have the benched Slaton on my fantasy team. To make matters worse my two road dogs to steal a phrase were beaten like rented mules. The Jaguars were basically eliminated from playoff contention losing to the previously winless Titans. MJD was given 8 carries with which he gained a ridonculous 177 yards and scored all the Jaguars points save a single extra point. David Garrard on the other hand somehow only completed 14 of 27 passes for a pathetic 139 yards and a pair of interceptions against the leagues worst passing defense. Nice job of in game adjustments by offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. The Giants apparently weren't informed that their game had been moved from 4 pm to 1 pm a couple of weeks ago to accommodate the World Series (and by a lucky coincidence for FOX the return of Brett Favre to Green Bay). I couldn't have been more wrong about this game. The Giants trailed 14-0 after the first quarter and 31-7 at the half. Perhaps my being inundated by the New York media on a daily basis had skewed my view of the Giants. At least I finally got some yard work done.

There are six teams on a bye again including the Bills, Browns, Raiders and Rams so the pickings are slim. For my best bet I will go to the coast and jump on the Mike Singletary bandwagon. OK, not really. This is more an anti-Titans pick than a pro-Niners pick. Focusing on losers, not winners, has generally worked well for me. I couldn't bring myself to pick the Jaguars for a second straight week even though they are only favored by 7 at home against the pitiful Chiefs. So I am going to take a pair of 10 point favorites playing opponents that have a single win combined even though both my selections are coming off bad losses. The Falcons and Packers are the picks. As you might have guessed this is again more about the competion or lack thereof. The Redskins and Buccaneers respectively.

home team in bold

Best Bet

San Fransisco 49ers (-4) over Tennessee Titans

The Niners hung tough in Indianapolis against the Colts. Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree and especially the return of Frank Gore from injury has breathed some life into the previously moribund offense. But this is about the Titans. I got big wins in best bets going against the Browns and Chiefs after their first win. Both of them were even playing at home while the Titans have to travel cross country. So I will go to the well again even though VY was efficient if not awe inspiring in his first start and Chris Johnson by himself makes the Titans in theory not quite as awful as the other one or even two loss teams.

Others

Atlanta Falcons (-10) over Washington Redskins

The Falcons pass defense has been hampered by injuries and poor play getting torched by Tony Romo and Drew Brees in successive weeks. I actually lost with the Falcons against the Cowboys. Alas Jason Campbell is no Romo, Brees or Byron Leftwich for that matter. Having Sherm Lewis call plays didn't make much difference against the Eagles before the bye. Losing Chris Cooley isn't going to make things better.

Green Bay Packers (-10) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This could be a little tricky. The Packers travel to Tampa coming off a tough divisional loss to the Favre led Vikings. Favre finished the season series torching his former team to the tune of 515 yards, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. A letdown could be in order. Of course Favre has started 277 more games in his career than rookie first time starter Josh Freeman. The Bucs are the last winless team and have been outscored 203 to 96. Going to Freeman was the right thing to do. It is just hard to envision the move helping much in the short term.

Last week

Houston Texans (-3.5) over Buffalo Bills WIN

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Tennessee Titans LOSS

New York Giants (+2) over Philadelphia Eagles LOSS

Record to date: 15-9 Best bets: 5-3

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