Big Ben and the Stiller Passing Game ����Guest article, by CK Stiller

 

Last postseason, Roethlisberger shocked most of the media and football world by coming out and throwing at an elite level in the playoffs. It was in complete contradiction of the reputation he had developed as a "game manager." The Steelers were supposed to be a run first team, and #7 was just an average QB looking great in a QB friendly system. Even now, most pundits will tell you that Roethlisberger is only an above-average QB. He isn't an elite passer in the league of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Carson Palmer. Roethlisberger doesn't have the gaudy 4,000 yards and 30 TDs those guys have. Hell, he only threw the ball 268 times, and averaged just 22 passes per game. Roethlisberger does lead in just about every efficiency stat, such as TD ratio or YPA. Most will simply dismiss this as being a product of the system. I think just about any Steeler fan can tell you the numbers don't reflect the reality of the situation, though. �At least, if you only look at the base numbers.

 

The Steelers run a unique offense right now with Roethlisberger. It's hard to find an actual historical comparison. Those who don't watch the Steelers, may think the team runs a highly conservative offense throughout a game. I mean, they probably wonder how else you would get the Steelers 59/41 run/pass ratio. It's this idea that leads people like SI's Dr. Z, or Micheal Irvin to question the Steelers' ability to keep up in terms of scoring. �The Steelers aren't the Broncos. They do not try to hide their QB. �This is a misconception. The Steelers end up with the gaudy run totals for one reason only. �Unlike other teams, they take the ball out of the air almost completely when a solid lead is established.

 

Anyone remember Palmer throwing against the Steelers, and nearly blowing the game for his team in the Steelers 38-31 defeat? �Or how Peyton Manning was still throwing with a 10 point lead against the Bengals two weeks before that? �Doesn't happen with the Stillers. �Most of you know that. The Stillers are a far more balanced team early on then most would believe. I would personally argue that the passing game was the driving force behind the offense last season. It was incredibly efficient early. In stark contrast, the Stillers run game struggled early on in games, putting up weak numbers throughout the first half. When one takes a look at the real numbers, the Steelers offense is much more balanced than many believe. �

 

Below are the Steelers run/pass ratios for the first half of games last season with Roethlisberger as the QB. Excluded from the run totals are the few runs by QB's, the results of broken down plays.

 

First Half Pass/Run Ratio

 

Week 1 - 9 passes, 15 runs (Titans)

Week 2 - 15 passes, 15 runs (Texans)

Week 3 - 10 passes, 10 runs (Patriots)

Week 5 - 14 passes, 17 runs (Chargers)

Week 7 - 8 passes, 14 runs (Bengals)

Week 8 - 17 passes, 11 runs (Ravens)

Week 12 - 14 passes, 14 runs (Colts)

Week 13 - 20 passes, 16 runs (Bengals)

Week 14 - 12 passes, 14 runs (Bears)

Week 15 - 9 passes, 10 runs (Vikings)

Week 16 - 15 passes, 21 runs (Browns)

Week 17 - 11 passes, 13 runs (Lions)

 

Total - 154 passes, 170 runs (48% pass, 52% run)

Final regular season totals - 268 passes, 386 runs (41% pass, 59% run)

 

Playoffs

 

Bengals - 13 passes, 11 runs

Colts - 19 passes, 12 runs

Broncos - 17 passes, 14 runs

Seahawks - 12 passes, 10 runs

 

Total - 61 passes, 47 runs (56% pass, 44% run)

Final playoff totals - 95 passes, 123 runs (44% pass, 56% run)

 

To put this in perspective, here are the total run/pass ratios of offenses considered to be more "pass oriented:"

�

Total pass/run ratios

 

Bengals - 538 passes, 459 runs (54% pass, 46% run)

Colts - 517 passes, 465 runs (53% pass, 47% run)

Patriots - 565 passes, 439 runs (56% pass, 44% run)

 

There's certainly a difference there, but it isn't anywhere near as major as you are led to believe. The run game supposedly drives the Steeler offense, yet of these four offenses, the Steelers had perhaps the weakest first half run game of any of the four teams:

 

First half run games

Bengals - 214 carries, 956 yards, 4.5 YPC

Colts - 184 carries, 757 yards, 4.1 YPC

Patriots - 186 carries, 671 yards, 3.6 YPC

Steelers - 197 carries, 674 yards, 3.4 YPC

 

Well, throughout the first half, the Steelers run game was shut down. Conventional wisdom would tell you the Steelers offense was shut down. However, the Steelers offense was its most dominant in the first half, when the Steelers were passing nearly as much as they ran, and getting far more production out of the pass game as opposed to the run:

 

First half Scoring Margins

 

Bengals - 225 to 141 (15 games), 15 to 9.4 avg

Colts - 196 to 107 (14 games), 14 to 7.6 avg

Patriots - 154 to 159 (15 games), 10.2 to 10.6 avg

Steelers - 170 to 90 (12 games), 14.2 to 7.5 avg

 

The Bengals had the most potent first half offense in terms of scoring, then the Steelers, and then the Colts. Consistently, the Steelers may have put up the best first half performances, at least under Roethlisberger. The Colts and Bengals both put up, by far, their best halves of offensive football against each other in games the defense would probably prefer to forget. The Steelers offense finished 9th in scoring last season, yet throughout out the first half they were as quick to score as anyone in the league.

 

The Stiller offense has evolved from the days of Kordell, or even Maddox. �It has become highly effective. I have to wonder if any other QB could succeed, leading his offense to as many points, and being as efficient per pass as Roethlisberger has been. Roethlisberger throws less, but he had the less effective run game. �Result? �He ends up with one of the most productive offenses still. And while Roethlisberger throws less, it makes one wonder when exactly he throws the most. It turns out, not surprisingly, that Roethlisberger throws a higher percent of his passes on third downs than these other three QBs. �Many may try and argue that the vaunted Steeler run game sets him up in more manageable third downs, but this turns out to be false, as well:

 

Third down pass rates

Palmer - 27%

Manning - 26%

Brady - 25%

Roethlisberger - 31%

 

Third downs over 6 yards

Palmer - 64%

Manning - 61%

Brady - 65%

Roethlisberger - 71%

 

Now, I don't know for sure who has the tougher job here. Brady had the least productive run game. However, he also gets to throw on first and second down. At the least, he is throwing against defenses in more opportune situations. Manning and Palmer both enjoy more productive run games then that of Roethlisberger, and most likely have the better offensive lines as well as receiving cores. They are set up with shorter third downs then Roethlisberger, and a smaller proportion ultimately comes in these situations. I personally believe it would be harder for a QB to not get to throw on first and second down, and then to be asked to convert a third and long when the defense knows it can just drop everyone back into coverage. At the same time, these other three QB's get the added bonus of being able to establish a rhythm to their offense and passing attack that Roethlisberger doesn't.

 

Another fact many don't realize about the Stiller offense is just how vertical it truly is. I've heard numerous times people claim the Stillers offense dinked-and-dunked its way down the field. I don't believe anything could be farther from the truth. �Once again, of these four QB's, Roethlisberger threw deep more often than any of them. In terms of percents, as well as raw numbers, he is very comparable. �Roethlisberger makes big plays often, and this would seem to be the true reason for his gaudy 8.9 YPA. See for yourself:

 

Completions over 20+ yards, in raws and percents

 

Palmer - 43, 12% of all completions, 8% of all attempts, 7.54 YPA

Manning - 45, 15% of all completions, 10% of all attempts, 8.27 YPA

Brady - 59, 18% of all completions, 11% of all attempts, 7.75 YPA

Roethlisberger - 35, 21% of all completions, 13% of all attempts, 8.9 YPA

 

I find it funny that, of all these QB's, Brady has the least heralded arm, yet probably threw deep the most. Palmer is often talked about as having one of the best deep balls in the league, yet he threw deep the least of these QB's. Roethlisberger, missing 4 games, threw only 8 less completions over 20 yards. All of this in spite of the fact that he throws about half as much as these other QB's overall. When Roethlisberger throws, he goes deep.

 

The final myth related to the Steeler offense? They can't play from behind. This is, of course, related to the notion that the Steelers are an offense driven by the run game, as opposed to the pass. The facts contradict this as well. Of all four these QB's, Roethlisberger is the highest rated when playing from behind. Not only that, but his also increases the most. Both Brady and Manning decrease, and Palmer is only slightly over his normal rating.

 

QB rating playing from behind

 

Palmer - 102.9

Manning - 80.5

Brady - 87.3

Roethlisberger - 115.3

 

I don't believe this is the best indicator of a QB's ability in the clutch. Far from it. �I would argue that Brady is the most "clutch" of these four. I believe Palmer is a choker, and that everyone else will realize this soon, as well. He blew two games in the final seconds for his team last season (Jaguars, Bills). He beat only one quality team last year from the AFC, and that was the 38-31 defeat of the Steelers. The first game against the Steelers was 7-6 until two Palmer INTs in the third quarter tipped the scale towards the Steelers. Roethlisberger also has 7 game winning drives under his belt so far. Two of these were last season. He also brought his team back against the Patriots, only to have Brady march back down the field and use up the last of the clock in week 3. He nearly brought them back against the Bengals in week 13, but the drive was killed by three penalties (two on the line for 20 yards), as well as a sack. Roethlisberger has been clutch for the Steelers, and there is no way they enjoy their 27-4 record under him without him being able to bring his team back when trailing.

 

The thing that is forgotten the most about Roethlisberger? He's only played two years. He's the youngest of these four. No one has ever started with as much success as him. The arguments against him are generally weak and illogical. If alls it took was an average QB, the Steelers wouldn't have gone 26 years without a title. There certainly would have been another guy to come in the league and have success like Roethlisberger has. I mean, was he just the luckiest QB ever drafted, or what? �No team ever did what the Steelers did in the playoffs in 05. It was the single greatest playoff run in NFL history. �Perhaps the greatest in all of sports history. �This is a team that, under Cowher, had not won a single road playoff game. They won three last season, knocking off the top three seeds in the NFL's dominant conference in the process, You can compare his first two seasons with any other QBs, and Roethlisberger arguably has the edge. Roethlisberger is performing at an elite level already, and anyone who tells you otherwise is a fool.

 

Ben is beginning a career for the ages. It may take the media a while to catch-on, but it will happen eventually. �Is he the best in the league already? �I wouldn't say that, but he's getting very close. Of those other three "elite" QBs, not one started as impressively as Roethlisberger, and that is all too easy for one to prove.