2006 Draft, D-line:�

 

Two prior articles purported a lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball.� The opposite is so on the D-side; here the talent pool is deep and wide: upfront, at LB and at DB.� Beginning with the bigs:

 

Table 1: D-line: 6 years of Combine history, against this class

 

	�# DE Invitees	Did all KEI drills	Achieved 70> KEI	�# DT Invitees	Did all KEI drills	Achieved 70> KEI
7 year average, �99-�05	28	18	4	25	14	3
2006	27	23	10	25	21	8
Remarks	Meets mean� # of invitees but not median	Highest %	Prior high 7, 2001	Meets both mean and median� # of invitees	Highest %	Prior high 6, 2004

 

That�s how prospects were listed at those Combines but, as we all know, that is not how they were to be deployed in the 3-4.� DT prospects may fit the 30-front at either NT or DE.� Some DE prospects remain at the spot, ala Aaron Smith or Brett Keisel, but mainly the PS have hooked OLB from that pool, ala Clark Haggans or Andre Frazier.�

 

For the 2006 PS, DE surely is a need.� On the plus side, they are returning 4 of 5 from the 2005 roster.� On the downside, well, while Aaron Smith is entrenched as a starter, he will be 30 next season and his contract will be up in two.� Backup Travis Kirschke will be 32 next year and advancing age is not the tonic for those back problems that limited him last time.� Keisel has shown some interesting qualities but there�s not telling whether he�ll hold up over 50-60 snaps per game through what (we hope) will be a 19-20 game season.� Finally, Shawn Nua, who, like Keisel, has some promising attributes but has yet to play down one in the show.�

 

The following table is intended to range the field wherein DE prospects may be found.� Classically, 3-4 DE are 6�-4� and above (6040 in Combine parlance) but that is not always so.� Good thing too, since this draft class does presents a fair number of promising, if squatty, DE candidates.� As we�ll see, those, mainly, are found in the DT division. But first:

 

Table 2:� Notable 3-4 DE, in the League last season.�

 

The long, 6040 and above			And the short
	H	W		H	W
Richard Seymour	6062	310	Orpheus Roye	6034	305
Ty Warren	6045	300	Gary Walker	6023	324
Alvin McKinley	6040	294	Luis Castillo	6033	303
Aaron Smith	6051	298	Jacques Cesaire	6020	295
KVO	6040	299	Bryant Young	6020	297
Robaire Smith	6041	310	Marques Douglas	6012	286
Igor Olshansky	6052	309	Jarvis Green	6031	290
Marcus Spears	6040	294
Greg Ellis	6052	280
Chris Canty	6072	295

 

Of note:

 

• Reportedly, the Steelers expect Brett Keisel to step in at RDE next year.� It is worth noting that Keisel (at 6050, 285#) projects to be the 2^nd lightest 3-4 DE in the show.� This suggests the PS will need a rotational complement at the spot.�

 

• While their projected starters (Smith and Keisel) fit in the long set, the Steelers do have some history with squat 3-4 DE.� Aside from Orpheus Roye, noted above, Brentson Buckner (6026) played effectively in Blitzburgh, v.1.0, as did Ray Seals (6�-3� or so).�

 

• H/W given in Combine parlance as was found at Ourlads

 

We�ll begin with the DT.� Many but not all at the Combine, are noted here; some of those with durability issues and/or poor KEI are excluded with no (further) comment.� You�ll note some R1A/B types, far beyond the Steelers� reach; these prospects are shown for information purposes only.� Some others, who do figure to reach 1.32, are shown here but are likely to be excluded from that chart (Table 7) closing this piece.� As usual (this year), prospects will be listed by VJ results as, per our KEI Review, that is an upfront indicator.� This unconventional order has additional benefit in conflating the standard round by round by round array found everywhere (else).�

 

Table 3: 2006 DT prospects.

 

Name/ School	H/W	Reps	VJ	KEI	40/10 Yard	SS	Remarks
Manaia Brown   BYU	6027   301#	21	34.5�	64.75	5.10/ 1.74	4.49	Neck injury and some concussions.� Underachiever
Dusty Dvoracek     Oklahoma	6026     306#	34	34	77.16	5.01/ 1.75	4.37	Country strong and smart too. Competes, productive despite constant double teams in senior season.� Has dealt with character concerns.�� Some injury history.�����
Barry Cofield     Northwestern	6040     304#	35	34	77.75	4.95/ 1.68	4.35	Smart.� Durable (36/37 starts) Has played inside and out. Can hold the point in 2-gap but not split it.� Must upgrade endurance and lower body strength.�
Kedric Golston     Georgia	6040     300#	31	33	73.25	4.88/ 1.73	4.45	Started as a freshman and looks the part.� Not productive, and nagging injuries raise durability concerns.� Could be worth a late R flyer.���
Broderick Bunkley   FSU	6026     306#	44	32 ��	85.91	5.01/ 1.71	NF	Top 12 type who will not be available to PS.� Generally regarded as a NT, but could be a DE in the PS system.� As a DE, long speed at issue, sort of.�
Rod Wright           Texas	6051           300	31	32	72.16	5.08/ 1.70	4.52	High character guy and has been a team leader.�� Looks the part but then disappears for stretches.� E.g.: neutralized by USC, but made game changing plays v. Oklahoma.� Best season was sophomore year.� Toughness questions must be answered.�
Baba Oshinowo   Stanford	6015   324#	33	32	73.75	5.27/ 1.80	4.57	NT only, R2 too high for this position for these PS.
Haloti Ngata   Oregon	6041   338#	37	31.5�	77.66	5.13/ 1.73	4.69	Like Bunkley, included for context.� Both Ngata and double-B will be off the board way before the PS step up
Marcus Green   OSU	6012   295#	33	31	73.00	5.14/ 1.85	4.88	Yoked up high try NT who fits an under system better than that run here.
LeKevin Smith       Nebraska	6027       316#	30	30.5�	69.59	4.98/ 1.75	4.97	High-energy leader on one of the better defenses in D-1.� Will hit, will hustle, but lacks agility to close the deal.� Two ACL surgeries but none since 2002.�� No quick twitch whatsoever.�
Kyle Williams   LSU	6012   299#	30	27.5�	65.66	5.12/ 1.73	4.58	High try guy who has outhustled his athletic limitations.� So far.� Does not fit the PS system
Gabe Watson   Michigan	6034   339#	36	25	69.0	5.27/ 1.79	4.82	Massive space eater with talent but some motivation issues.� Like Oshinowo, will be available but will not be on the PS board.�

 

Notes:

 

• DNP at Indy: Claude Wroten, Orien Harris and Jesse Mahelona.� Johnny Jolly did not do KEI drills, but did run a glacial 5.41 40.�
• Does not fit the system (DNF):� Williams, Wroten, Mahelona, John McCargo and Jonathan Lewis.

 

Two NT candidates, Ngata and Watson, are not so much naturally big as naturally immense.� For Oshinowo, that is not (clearly) so and definitely does not apply to Green.� No matter; the PS will not be in the NT market, not early anyway.� Late R candidates include Anthony Montgomery (Minnesota), Alvin Smith (Oregon State) and Steve Fifita (Utah).� More on those as information becomes available.

 

Generally, Broderick Bunkley is considered a NT too but IMO, he may fit at DE, in the Roye/Buckner/Seals mode, or Bryant Young, who did more than ok last season. Of course, Bunkley won�t be there 1.32 but Dusty Dvoracek will, thru several frames; note that there are striking similarities (by the numbers) between these two.� As for those DE candidates in the classic mode (Wright, Cofield and Golston), well, of those, only Cofield is red flag free, IMO.�

 

Past those DT, there are some quality 3-4 DE prospects that actually drilled at the spot.� Most years, DE prospects translate, here, as OLB.� Not so this time; before reaching that array, the following sorts pro OLB.�����

 

Table 4:� Notable 3-4 OLB, in the League (mainly) last season

 

260# or more			Lighter, but big frame			Standard issue (prior standard)
	H	W		H	W		H	W
Shawn Merriman	6043	272	D. Ware	6040	255	Joey Porter	6024	250
Willie McGinest	6050	270	S. Fujita	6050	250	Rosey Colvin	6023	250
Andre Carter	6041	265				Akin Ayodele	6023	246
Steve Foley	6034	265				Clark Haggans	6033	243
Shaun Phillips	6032	262				Matt Stewart	6035	235
Mike Vrabel	6041	261				Julian Peterson	6033	235
Kalimba Edwards	6053	265				Chaun Thompson	6017	242

 

Of note:

 

• Kalimba Edwards is included because Cleveland had expressed interest in this FA, deeming him to be McGinest-by-the-Lake.� Akin Ayodele served in the Jags 4-3 last year; however, he�ll be in the Boys� 3-4 next season.��

 

• In general, the big OLB are found in New England and San Diego; Dallas too, last year, even if Ayodele is not among the numbered.�

 

3-4 OLB are getting bigger and, simultaneously, 4-3 DE are getting smaller.� The Jersey Giants exemplify the latter: Umeniyora came into the League around 280# but did not play at that weight last season.� Strahan slimmed down too yet that pair led all rush tandems in sacks, job #1 in for 4-3 DE.� In that light, the 3-4 may be considered an Okie base, with 3 DT and 2 DE; certainly, that describes the Bolts� front.� Base assignments typically are similar across both: rush the passer and set the edge but, generally, 3-4 OLB draw considerable coverage action while 4-3 DE do not.� Frame length may be an ultimate factor: while length does correlate with the pass rush elite, the same is, mainly, adverse with respect to change of direction (COD).�

 

The Steelers� own Joey Porter exemplifies that dichotomy: not an elite rusher but (virtually) peerless in coverage.� On the other side, Clark Haggans, who draws few on-man assignments but is exceptional moving to close the window in short zones.� Regardless, exactly as both Porter and Haggans are two seasons from the Vale of Gildon, aka Contract 3, those OLB prospects noted below are relevant.���

 

Many but not all DE at the Combine, are noted here; some of those with durability issues and/or poor KEI are excluded with no (further) comment.� You�ll note some R1A/B types, far beyond the Steelers� reach; these prospects are shown for information purposes only.� Some others, who do figure to reach 1.32, are shown here but are likely to be excluded from that chart (Table 7) closing this piece.� As usual (this year), prospects will be listed by VJ results as, per our KEI Review, that is an upfront indicator.� This unconventional order has additional benefit in conflating the standard round by round by round array found everywhere (else).�

�

Table 5:� 2006 DE prospects

 

Name, PS position/ School	H/W	Reps	VJ	KEI	40/10 Yard	SS	Remarks
Mark Anderson, LOLB           Alabama	6042             254#	20	42	72.56	4.62/ 1.64	4.24	Made a mint in Mobile where he whipped OT McNeill, Winston and Scott in drills and then beat the Brick gameday.� Good, not great: size, technique and explosion but puts those together.� High football IQ, like Haggans but better athleticism.�
Mario Williams, DE   NC State	6070     295#	35	40.5	85.50	4.70/ 1.60	4.37	Planet of origin unknown.���
Ray Edwards, DE   Purdue	6046   273#	30	39	78.50	4.81/ 1.65	4.59	DND despite excellent athletic credentials.� See Ninkovich below.�
Stanley McClover, ROLB       Auburn	6023         262	19	39	67.50	4.70/ 1.62	4.52	Productive and wants to play.� Lightning rushing off the edge but below average in run game.� Tough enough, played with a bad ankle last year.� On the downside, ankle has been chronic.
Chris Gocong, OLB       Cal Poly	6021         263#	28	38.5� (42�)	80.00*	4.70/ 1.61	4.09	*� KEI per Pro Day jump results.� Extremely high production v. low level of competition.� Highly intelligent.� Entered Indy R5, left R3 and rising.� Four teams will work him (privately) at LB
Kamerion Wimbley, ROLB             FSU	6037               248#	24	38.5�	73.25	4.61/ 1.60	4.48	Ws a difference-maker in his senior season (FSU D collapsed when he went out for 3 games).� Previously, played behind Eric Moore, an awful OLB prospect, circa 2005.� That�s a puzzle; it doesn�t help he missed a portion of the only season he started.� Does want to play, which helps.�
Mike Kudla, none       OSU	6015       265#	45	37�	91.50	4.72/ 1.63	4.45	A guy to root for: recovered from a serious viral infection to play effectively and boost his stock at Indy.� However, fits PS only as a package (rush) DT.��
Jason Hatcher, DE     Grambling State	6057     284#	28	35.5�	72.91	4.82/ 1.72	4.50	Measurables compare favorably to Rodrique Wright.� Production far superior but (obviously) LOC was not.� Quality mid-R prospect at DE.�
Rob Ninkovich, OLB             Purdue	6031               260#	25	34.5�	67.33	4.91/ 1.66	4.18	Had just (5) starts in (2) years at Purdue, but (16) sacks.� That last number matches Ray Edwards, who had (16) too, but in� (3) seasons.� Ninko lacks both long speed and explosiveness but has good agility.� Want-to 100%.� May be similar to former Boilermaker� Shaun Phillips.�
Julian Jenkins, DE   Stanford	6035   277#	25	34.5	68.66	5.03/ 1.76	4.24	Played in 3-4 at Stanford.� Smart and productive but has some frame limitations.�
Ryan LaCasse, OLB   Syracuse	6023     257#	34	34	77.41	4.62/ 1.65	4.34	Excellent production as a starter, great on ST.� Durable and smart.� Rated deep Day 2 earlier but is rising
James Mincey, OLB   Florida	6034     259#	27	33.5�	70.33	4.76/ 1.70	4.25	High try, low instincts, poor change of direction.� ST only, and not for long.�
Daryl Tapp, LOLB         V-Tech	6015         252#	27	33�	69.09	4.83/ 1.66	4.48	Highly productive pass rusher who can set the edge.� Lack of long speed will hurt in coverage but he�s smart enough to do what Haggans does.� Kevin Green type, IMO.� Great leverage player.
James Wyche, OLB       Syracuse	6053       263#	33	33	75.67	4.63/ 1.70	4.25	Starter for 3.5 yrs. and produced consistently.� Reps do not translate to run defense.� Edge rusher only with dubious coverage potential.
Victor Adeyanju, DE     Indiana	6042       274#	22	32	63.16	4.86/ 1.70	63.16	Hyped as an exceptional athlete but Combine results do not bear that out.� 4 yr. starter: not very productive but was durable.� May be a 3-4 DE prospect but he�s no LB.
Parys Haralson, ROLB   Tennessee	6012     253#	24	32	65.56	4.80/ 1.72	4.28	Best 1st step in college ball.� Tough, good teammate, a leader.� ROLB prospect but tested deficiencies are a concern

 

Notes:

 

• DNP at Indy:� Melvin Oliver, Eric Henderson, Elvis Dumervil, Tambi Hali and Matthew Rice

 

• DNF:� Kudla, Dumervil, Hali and Henderson

 

• Insufficient Info:� Melvin Oliver was clutch at LSU, but does have some frame issues.� Matthew Rice has the frame to play the spot but like Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel, has got to hang more meat.� Brandon Guillory is an exceptional athlete, reportedly in the Manny Lawson class.

 

• Haralson and Tapp are interesting prospects but both have frame limitations.� Considered as OLB, well, their H marks fall below Chaun Thompson, # zed of all OLB last year.� Both are presently ranked in the R2/3 range but for the PS that is overvalued.� Ranging the field: Tapp may be a Dewayne White type, Haralson, Robert Mathis.

 

At this date, rankings within the DE set are highly volatile.� For example, Gocong is, and LaCasse may be, going up fast; Adeyanju ought be dropping at the same rate.� Consider that Edwards, McClover and Anderson average to the same spot now but, again, Anderson is rising while (IMO) Edwards is DND.� There are many other examples; suffice to say: as true with respect to those prior O-side articles, this piece is v1.0.�� Expect another iteration, at minimum, prior to any penultimate SBBV.� Finally, pasting our standard close:

 

Close:

 

The closing table does not constitute any final SBBV; it�s way too early for that.� Rather, it is intended to illustrate that value cluster paradigm. In general, this notion crosses any current crop, at any position, with certain historical facts (pick/position/R).� In the table below, take ranges over the past five years are displayed, against rankings for this season�s crop.� The latter are compiled, provisionally, as the average from PFW and Draft Scout rankings.���

 

Numbers taken per position tend to converge because, year after year, teams tend to draft for need.� Need, summed over all teams, tends to remain constant, if only because injury is a constant.� Then too, it could be that busts are a constant because teams constantly draft for need. Busts create need too�and around we go.������

 

On the flip side, talent per crop per position varies wildly.� Earlier, we gave R3 RB as an example; consider too, LB, circa 2000, as was highlighted previously, in our Roster Overview.� The short form is: the #5 guy at any given position in any given year is unlikely to an equivalent prospect when compared to the #5 at that same spot in any other year.� In the end, it�s a matter of judgment.� If you believe, say, Rodrique Wright compares favorably with #7-8 DT prospects taken in prior years, and with classes oncoming, then Rodrique Wright constitutes R2/3 value.� If not, not; so, if just for now:�

 

Table 6: Summary of tables 3 & 5 above, parsing DT and DE prospects into NT, DE and OLB�

 

	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	Info missing
NT	Ngata Watson	Oshinowo					Green L. Smith	Alvin. Smith Steve Fifita
3-4 DE	Bunkley	Wright	Williams Cofield Dvoracek			Golston	Brown	Anthony Montgomery
DT: 5 years	3-5	5-7 (8)	7-10 (6) (12)	10-13 (7)	12-15 (8)	15-19 (14) (22)	18-22 (24)
3-4 DE	Williams		Edwards Jenkins Adeyanju		Hatcher	Oliver	Rice	Matthew Rice
3-4 OLB	Wimbley	Tapp Haralson	Anderson Gocong McClover	Ninkovich	LaCasse Mincey	Kudla Wyche	Guillory	Brandon Guillory
DE: 5 years	3-4 (6)	6-8 (10)	8-10 (13)	12-14 (10) (16)	12-20 Scatter	20-23 (18)	24-27 (21)

 

Notes

 

• Standard range shown, as available; outlaying values are found in parentheses.

 

• DT take Day 1 was small in 2003, huge in 2001.� This year figures to be on the up end previously set at: (10) per 2004 or (12) per 2001.� There seem to be good mid-round values this year, which as not so, say, in 2005, when (1) DT was taken in all of R4/5.

 

• Hilariously, 2003 is the DE leader, on both day 1 and 2.� Applying the KEI index to that class would predict little production, and, indeed, that was delivered.� Osi Umeniyora (R2) and Robert Mathis (R5) were two salient exceptions, but the Combine bosses missed on both, tendering neither an invite.� Oh well.�

 

Table 7:� Towards the SBBV.�

 

	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	Info missing
DE	(Williams) (Bunkley)	Wright	Cofield Dvoracek Jenkins Adeyanju		Hatcher	Golston Oliver	Rice	Oliver Rice Montgomery
NT	(Ngata)						L. Smith	Smith Fifita
OLB		(Anderson) Gocong	McClover	Ninkovich	LaCasse		*Guillory	Guillory (*) Probably

 

• Boldface denotes >70 KEI.�

 

• Additional OLB prospects to follow.� For example, Manny Lawson who, like Joey Porter, was a collegiate DE but drilled with OLB.� It is likely that, ultimately, some prospects drilled as OLB will displace some of the DE noted above.�

 

• Neither Tapp nor Haralson constitute R2 value as 3-4 OLB; therefore they are not shown above.� On a measurables basis, either or both may drop into R3/Day2; as such value for sure, at some point.�� On the flip side, and as noted previously, Anderson, Gocong, McClover and LaCasse are rising; the premise underlying our value cluster paradigm suggests this swell may swamp Tapp or Haralson, or some other DE prospects, dropping them into the mid-frames.� Either way, as was so in 2000, there does appear to be mid-R value on the edges.���

 

• (Prospect name) indicates a desirable player unlikely to be on the board when the PS come to the podium

 

Coming attractions:

 

• LB, in and out
• DB
• Strategy: strength of class v. PS strength of roster