Stillers vs. Colts Pregame Analysis (Game #11, @ Indy)
The 7-3 Stillers travel to Indy to face the undefeated Colts
in a MNF battle for AFC supremacy.� The
Colts are in the catbird's seat atop the AFC, but enter a rugged stretch that began
last week after an opening sequence of opponents that were as soft as cream
cheese.� To their credit, Indy went to
Cinci and dispatched the Bungals last week, while the Stillers stumbled in an
OT slopfest to the lowly Ravens.�
* When the Dolts have the ball, they'll be led
by All-World QB Peyton Manning, who happens to be the premier QB, bar none, in
the NFL right now.� Manning is where
Danny Marino was in his prime -- well ahead of all peers in terms of
preparation, on-field awareness, knowing his offensive scheme inside and out,
and able to read defenses as easy as a middle-schooler reading comic
books.� As if Manning's arm, vision,
accuracy, touch, and savvy aren't enough to have in one guy's toolkit, the guy
does all the "little extras" that you love to see a QB do -- his
play-action fakes are second to no one in the league, and his ability to sell
screens & draws, as well as use the pump fake and the look-off, are good
enough to warrant a Hollywood or Broadway acting tryout after his playing days
are over.� Even the way Manning busts
his ass to quickly scoot out and lunge the ball to James on the stretch play is
a sight to behold.�
�
The running game is led by Edge James, who leads the conference in
rushing.� James is the classic do-it-all
RB, capable of slashing off guard and tackle, running wide, and snaring the
ball in the passing game.� James has the
vision, patience, and acceleration to run the stretch play as well -- if not
better than -- any RB in the league.�
Dom Rhodes serves as the backup, with seldom-used, undersized James
Mungro serving as the FB.��
The receiving corps is extremely dangerous and flammable, so
much so that the Colt management has to place firefighters along the end zone
as a safety precaution.� This corps is
deep, fast, athletic, and sticky-fingered, and they all run good, crisp
patterns. Marv Harrison leads the crew in terms of TDs, although mate Reggie
Wayne is having just as good a season.�
The 3rd WR is no slouch, with the reliable Brandon Stokley more than
capably handling that role.�
At TE, the Colts feature Dallas Clark, a vastly underrated
TE who has blossomed into one of the better TE threats in the league.� Clark has exceptional hands and deceptive
speed.� As you saw last week, Clarkie
ate Cinci alive down the middle, including a 21-yard seamer for a TD.� The Colts will use the undersized Ben Utecht
at times as an H-back.� Utecht is
strictly a receiving TE that is a mediocre blocker, at best.� For better power run blocking, the Colts
employ Ben Hartsock as a 2nd TE.�
The O-line isn't the brawniest or best, but it's more than
adequate for what the Colts need for their style of offense.� Center Jeff Sunday, er, Saturday, anchors
the line at center.� Saturday won't make
anyone forget about, say, Jim Langer, but he's a more than adequate center that
can hold his own in both the running and passing game. Saturday's best asset is
his mental acuteness, as he is the signal caller for the Indy O-line.� In many teams, this would mean little, but
this is enormously important to the Indy offense, what with Manning running the
no-huddle on occasion, as well as often changing the play 3 times at the line
of scrimmage.� The tackles are both of
high quality.� LT Tarik Glenn, a former
1st rounder, is a borderline Pro Bowl type of player.� RT Ryan Diem is a very solid, very steady tackle that toils in
anonymity.� Because of sal cap
limitations, the Colts have deliberately chosen to skimp at the guard
position.� Ryan Lilja and Jake Scott
(not to be confused with the former Dolphin safety) work at the guards, and
neither is an above-average player.�
They get the job done, though, particularly because the Colts offense is
geared toward the off-tackle ground game, not the up-the-gut scheme.� In fact, this entire O-line isn't the kind
of line that is going to regularly get to the 2nd level to make blocks, but
frankly, they don't have to.� Their
ground game relies on a heavy diet of 3 things:� the stretch play, the draw play, and the play-action pass.� Because of this, and because of James'
explosiveness and agility, the O-line merely need to create a split-second
crack, and with defenses so terrified about Harrison, Wayne, and company, there
aren't a lot of pell-mell attacks at the LOS by opposing LBs.�
The Stillers get ILB James Farrior back into the lineup, as
well as backup safety Mike Logan.�
Key tendencies:�
The Colts love the stretch play and run it better than any team in the
NFL.� Manning conducts the play fake so
well, that it almost always buys him the extra second to then zip a pass to
Clark or his trio of receivers.�� If
opposing teams want to play deep and soft, Manning and his superb trio have no
qualms about running the deep stop and the deep in, all day long.� Finally, Manning loves to run the no-huddle,
as well making a dozen changes at the LOS.�
This will create problems for Fat Casey Hampton and James Farrior, both
of whom may get tuckered out; Hampton, because of his girth, and Farrior
because he's not played in a few weeks.�
This also limits the insertion of package defenses that LeBeau likes to
use on passing downs.� It also puts Troy
Pola in a precarious position on his blitzes and fake blitzes.� Unlike non-cerebral QBs like David Carr and
Carson Palmer, Manning keenly reads these shenanigans, both pre-snap as well as
post-snap, and Pola could find himself out of position in a big hurry.�
The key matchup will be the Stiller pass defense
against the Indy pass offense.� James
will get a modicum of yardage, but unless he rips off a 63-yard jaunt, I don't
seem him getting more than 90 yards.�
The Colts will be more than happy to chew clock with short flips to
James and Clark, as well as strikes to their superb WR corps.� The Stillers' dilemma is that, to rattle
Manning and the Colts, you've got to smack Manning more than a few times, as
well as jostle their receivers.�
Unfortunately, the Stillers do neither task well at all; their front-7
pass rush as been as feeble as ant piss and their corners rarely play the bump
'n run.� If Manning makes some big
connections in the passing game in the first half, it takes the Stillers out of
their ground chuck offense.��
* When the Stillers have the ball, Big Ben
will be back at the helm after missing a few games for a knee scope.� Praise the Lord!!�� Benji likely won't be at 100% speed and quickness, but compared
to the stonefooted Maddox, Roth will look like Carl Lewis.�
There will be a logjam at RB, with all 4 RBs in playable
health.� Based on what Cowhard has done
this season, one of the 4 (Staley, Parker, Bettis, Haynes) will not dress.� Because Staley can, in fact, catch the ball
and block, I would dress Staley and deactivate Haynes, but Billy Cowhard has
never, ever grasped the reality that a 3rd down back is only needed when
you have a bootfooted, stone-handed #1 RB like Barry Foster, Bam Morris, and
Jerome Bettis.�
The Colts defense was their obvious Achilles heel the past 2
seasons, and to their credit, the Dolts took some steps to shore up the D.�� It's still not a great defense, but as the
St. Lou Rams showed a few years back, you don't need a great defense when your
offense is dominant and you play your home games on a fast track inside a
dome.� Coach Tony Dungy employs a
similar cover-2 scheme as he used in Tampa, along with an emphasis on speed
over bulk 'n' brawn. �
Brock, Simon, Reagor, and Freeney man the front 4.� Brock, a Temple product, is a marginal
starter that gives way to Robert Mathis on passing downs.� Mathis overcomes frame length issues with a
high motor and a quick first step, plus he doesn't get worn down playing every
down.� Fat Corey Simon was signed just
before the season started, when Philly cut him over contract issues.� Fat Corey, the 6th overall pick in the 200
draft, is the one Colt defender that is actually big, and he gives them some
inside beef and bulk.� He was, however,
only marginally effective in the Stillers' mauling of the Iggles last
season.� Montae "Alex" Reagor
had a lackluster few season with the Doncos, before landing in Indy.� He's undersized for a DT, though, and can be
pushed around.� At RDE is the
incomparable Dwight Freeney, who requires no introduction.� A true freak of nature, although this freak
plays the run and the pass with equal aplomb.�
The LB corps is led by OLB Cato June.� Unlike some University of Michigan LBs now
playing in the NFL, June isn't slow a foote; instead, he's a very fast
ballhawk, making plays everywhere, all over the field.� June, a college safety, is undersized, but
he is a 100% stud that makes up for it with speed, instincts, and
quickness.� To me, June is the key to
this Colts defense.� At the other OLB is
David Thornton, a very solid LB that is both quick and tough.� He hits harder than any Colt besides SS Bob
Sanders.� In the middle is Gary
Brackett, another undersized but quick LB.�
He won't be getting any free trips to Hawaii any time soon, but compared
to last year's starting ILB, Slob Morris, Brackett looks like Mike
Singletary.�
The secondary is average, but with Dungy's cover-2, combined
with a capable front-4 pass rush and the luxury of usually playing with a lead,
this crew gets the job done.� Safety Bob
Sanders leads this crew.� Many folks
forget that Sanders started only 4 games in his rookie stint last season
because of injury, so he's technically not a "newly added player"
when the so-called experts prattle on about "Indy didn't add anyone to
their defense in the offseason, except Simon".� Sanders, though diminutive, is a voracious hitter with tremendous
footspeed.� As Cato June is the key to
this defense, Sanders is the key to this secondary.� Former Buckeye Mike Doss mans the other safety spot.� Doss is obviously a better run supporter
than pass defender, but that said, he's 3 times better than, say, stiffs like
Darren Perry or Burnt Alexander.� Nick
Harper and Jason David man the corners.�
Both are twerps, with David only 5'-8" and Harper 5'-10".� Along with Stiller great Greg Lloyd, Harper
is an alumnus of Fort Valley State, and is the lone starter left from the
pre-Dungy regime.� The chief nickel back
is rookie 1st rounder Marlin Jackson, another Pissagain product.� By this point of the season, I'd have phased
Jackson into the starting lineup, particularly because neither Harper nor David
are even remotely resembling a Rod Woodson or a Ronnie Lott.���
Obviously, this secondary had its hands full last week
against Cinci's talented corps of receivers, but frankly, the Stillers
receivers aren't as dangerous as Cinci's, especially if TE Heath Miller is
going to spend much of his time pass blocking and at times simply standing on
the sidelines.
Key tendencies:�
The Colts defense can be exploited, as Cinci showed last week.� On the other hand, the Colts have the speed
and playmaking ability to make an impact play or two, via the strip of the QB,
a jarred ball on RAC, or an INT.� As
noted above, the Colts did more than add Simon to this defense.� Slob Morris -- one of the most wretched
first round LBs in recent NFL history -- is now replaced by Brackett, and
Sanders is a full-time starter.� Rookie
1st rounder Marlin Jackson gives the Dolts an athletic, decent-sized
nickelback.�
The key matchup will be 2-fold: the Stiller ground
game against the Indy front 7, and the passing game against a suspect
secondary.� It's no big secret that, to
beat the Colts, you've got to control the clock, keep Manning off the field,
and ground up an undersized front 7.�
The Stillers have the personnel to do just that, although, on the turf
of the RCA Dome, Indy's speed will allow them to make some plays, especially
against slow developing Whaleshit counters and the like.�� This all goes out the window, of course, if
Indy is able to jump to, say, a 17-point lead.�
Dovetailing into the concept of chewing clock and keeping Manning on the
bench, is the Stiller passing game if it clicks for some key first downs and
some good yardage, especially on 1st down when Indy will likely be cheating
towards the LOS.� 3 or 5-play drives,
and then punting, doesn't cut the mustard against such an explosive, capable
offense.�
* Special Teams: �Hunter Smith is one of the best punters in the league.� Dave Rayner serves as the "designated kickoffer",
and routinely boots the ball deep.� Mike
Vanderjagt is one of the best PKs in the league.� Troy Walters and Dom Rhodes are decent PR and KOR, respectively.� Overall, though, the Colts special teams are
weak, primarily because of poor depth due to huge salary outlays to the
triplets, Freeney, et al.�
Key Individual Matchups:
* LT Marvel Smith vs. DE Dwight Freeney.�� A huge matchup with enormous
implications.� When 100% healthy, Smith
has his hands full, and then some, against a stud like Freeney, but coming off
a knee injury, Smitty is probably just 90%.�
Benji better have his head on a swivel while back in the pocket.�
*LDE Rob Mathis vs. RT Max Starks.� Mathis can be a bear in pass rush, and with Freeney attracting so
much attention on the other side, Starks is going to have to ward off Mathis on
a solo effort.�
* WR Randle El vs. the Indy secondary.� The happiest Steeler heading into this tilt
will be Antwaan Randle El, who gets a respite from the mud bog of Heinz Field
and gets to stop & cut on a dime on the fast track turf of the RCA
Dome.� For El, he'll be thinking "RAC
Dome", not RCA Dome.� Hopefully the
Stillers will create some plays that use his RAC skills and his pattern-running
ability on the fast track.�
* CBs Taylor and Townsend vs. WRs Wayne and Harrison.� Pull out the rosary beads for this one.� Although capable, neither Ike nor Town can
go all that long against these wizards without a severe burning, especially if
the pass rush is anemic.�
* Synopsis: You've got simpletons like Gerry
Dulac, making the comparison of Indy to San Diego, whom the Stillers beat on
the road on MNF back in Oct.� It's an
absurd comparison, not much different from comparing Tony Stewart's NASCAR
vehicle to the same model sitting at the local car lot.� Drew Brees is a nice QB, but he ain't no
Peyton Manning, and Diego's WR corps can't hold a candle to that of Indy's.� There are also some that claim the Stillers
will be able to introduce some clever defensive innovation that will thwart
Indy.� This is a nice idea, until one
asks himself, "When was the last time a Cowher team won a big game due to
a new, astute tactical innovation or scheme?"�� The answer is "Never", and that's a primary reason why
the Dolts will prevail, 30-19.�