2005 Game 11 Preview

November 26, 2005 by Steel Phantom

2005 Game 11 Preview

This year, the road to the Super Bowl winds through Indianapolis. Of course, that�s always been true for the Colts, the finest Arena unit in the history of football. While this team has twice wilted (like any hothouse violet) in bad weather playoff encounters with the New England Patriots, still, the Indy braintrust has kept their eyes fixed on the prize. Their home dome venue does simulate each and every Super Bowl site. Occasionally, those are played indoors, but they always are in warm weather locales.

The Steelers are built otherwise. Constructed to trudge over the frozen bog that is their home turf (grinding on the nub of the Appalachians), this team is the pole opposing Indy�s aerial circus. The Colts embody one of the League�s primary selling points: high flying scoring action. The Steelers embody another, archaic and elemental.

Violence.

Old school, new school; call it what you will. One thing for sure: this game presents the Steelers with their last chance at gathering HFA through the playoffs. 13-3 might get it; only the Broncos, famous for folding in the stretch, and the Colts, with road games to follow in Jacksonville and Seattle, as well as a home tilt against San Diego, can get to 14 wins. Setting HFA aside, since a bye is nearly as valuable, the Steelers, with 3 AFC losses, cannot absorb another. 12-4 could get a week�s pass, maybe, but this Steeler edition is disadvantaged in most tiebreaking terms.

Having dropped three winnable, the Steelers now face a must-win v. the unbeaten. The Colts rose to (near) elite in 2003. From that opening to this, they are 34-8 in regular season action. Tracing those losses, in seeking some significant statistical factor:

Colts regular season losses, 2+ seasons:

Team	Score	TOP	Remarks	Takeaways
2003
Carolina	20-23	Panthers 34:36	Panthers rushed for 189 yards	Carolina (+1)
@ Jacksonville	23-28	Jags 31:39	Jags rushed for 174 yards. Fred Taylor had 152	Even
Denver	17-31	Broncos 44:58	Denver rushed for 227 yards	Indy (+1)
NE	34-38	Indy 32:01	Patriots had 257 return yards	New England (+3)
2004
@ New England	24-27	Indy 31:41	Colts were 3/7 in the Red Zone	New England (+1)
Jacksonville	24-27	Jags 34:34	12 Colt penalties including 6 pre-snap	Even
@ Kansas City	35-45	Chiefs 37:33	KC: 203 yards rushing. A shoot-out: teams combined for 1,095 yards	Colts (+1)
@ Denver	14-33	Broncos 37:44	Denver: 214 yards rushing. Game 16, Indy had nothing to play for; in the WC round next week, they smoked the Broncos.	Broncos (+1)

Notes:

The Colts have 4 regular season losses at home and 4 on the road.

In the past 2+ seasons, only five teams have beaten Indianapolis. It is worth noting that two, NE and Carolina, met in the SB in 2003. NE won it then, and in 2004. The Colts have dropped but few, mainly to the elite.

In the regular season, the Colts are 0-3 v. the AFC West combo of Denver and KC, but 2-0 in the playoffs. On the flip side, NE barely squeaked by Indy in two regular season tilts, but crushed them in two playoff encounters.

Big run bulges factored in 5 of those 8 defeats. Takeways factored in just 1. Sacks have played little part in hobbling the Colt O. Manning went down just 7 times in those 8 losses.

There have been two losses more, those in the playoff rounds: both to New England in New England. In the AFCC following the 2003 season, the Pats put Manning down four times, and gathered 5 takeaways, including 4 INT. NE won that one, 24-14; that game precipitated the League�s so-called �emphasis� on defensive interference, aka the Manning Rule.

That loss is anomalous as, generally, the Colt O hasn�t given it away. Things played closer to form next time when, earlier on their road through Pittsburgh to last year�s crown, the Pats befuddled Peyton (again), going light upfront in limiting the von Manning Express to just 3 points. That�s one D-side model, the other Jacksonville; while the Jags have not reached the championship rounds recently, they have played the Colts tough. Finally:

In the period noted above, the Pats have handled Indy 4 of their 10 losses.

Jacksonville has 2 wins over Indy; in general, the Jags D approximates that of Carolina (1-0); active big men upfront, Cover 2 behind.

Denver has two wins over Indy too, although one (Game 16, 2004) comes with asterisk. Both times, Denver�s D featured 3 bigs down, one edge rusher and exceptional speed in the LB corps. Their weakness was at CB. In the 2004 PO, Indy exploited that, rendering the Denver run game irrelevant. For most, that is the worst-case scenario this Monday.

So much for the short form; turning to the Colts ace unit:

O-side Comparison, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh

PPG

YPG

TOP

Rush

YPG

Pass

YPA

Rating

Sacks

Against

Turnovers

3^rd down

Penalty

Yards

Steelers

23.6

(11^th)

305.2

(23^rd)

18^th

6^th

7.80

8^th

89.8

(9^th)

(T-13)

(7^th)

30.4%

(31^st)

9^th

Colts

30.5

(1^st)

379.3

(2^nd)

10^th

7^th

8.02

3^rd

104.6

(2^nd)

(#1)

(T-4)

54.2%

(1^st)

1^st

Notes:

Mismatch of the week: the Colts� O is ranked #1 in 3^rd down conversions; the PSD is #29 in 3^rd downs against.

In the past 7 games, the Colts have scored 31, 28, 45, 38, 40, 31 and 45 points. Great unless we consider that those defenses ranked, by scoring: 27^th, 30^th, 32^nd, 31^st, 26^th and 31^st (Houston twice). Bad numbers, mainly; however, Cincinnati, against whom they put up 45 last time, is still T-8^th.

Colts� O-side personnel:

Per Football Outsiders, the Colt O-line is the finest unit in the League. They are #1 in sack rate (allowed) at 2.8%; the League average is 6.6%. They are #1 in �line adjusted yards rushing�, at 4.39; the League average is 4.08. This is a slap at most draft prognosticators. While LT Tarik Glenn is a former R1 pick, RT Ryan Diem is a R4 guy and RG Jake Scott, R5. OC Jeff Saturday was not drafted at all; LG Ryan Lilja is a former UDFA too.

Glenn, Diem and Saturday have been fixtures; however, the Colts have treated their OG like spare parts. Rich DeMulling started for several years; a former R7 pick, Indy denied DeMulling C$2 and he�s in Detroit now. Tuka Peko, another R7, made some starts in the last couple seasons; he�s gone now as is Steve Sciullo, all-rook in 2003, and cut in 2004. The contrast with the Steelers is apparent; the PSO has a total of 5 (former) R1 picks starting, with 3 lining up from LG to RG. That said: it is worth noting that DeMulling has disappointed in Detroit, and that the other two are out of the League. Evidently, their superior performance in Indy was scheme-related. It�s reasonable to infer that to be so of the current set too.

The Colts are strictly a zone blocking team; Saturday is a Hartings-size OC but the Colt OGs are small, 280# and 285#. In contrast, the Colt field twin jumbo high quality OT: Glenn, a finesse player, is 332# and Diem, a mauling type, is 320#. The Colts run to their strength, which is on the edge; in general, the Colt IOL tandem inside (and try to survive), with one scrapping to the second level. The playside OT typically hooks while the offside OT drops into the B-gap, sealing backside. The Colts� IOL do not get much movement, even in tandem; therefore, there is only a limited cutback threat associated with their stretch.

You know the principals: Peyton, Edge, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Indy runs a single RB attack, almost exclusively. In years past, the Colts split equally between twin TE and 3 WR sets. This year, with Marcus Pollard in Detroit, they are dominantly 3-wide. Brandon Stokely is #3; he is a smallish WR with good speed. In the Warner-Ram mode, Stokely typically overmatches an opponents� 3^rd CB. Finally, TE Dallas Clark leads the team in YPC, 13.2, mainly predicated on his exceptional running ability. Lost among the luminaries in Indy, Clark�s big play capacity is generally underrated.

Finally, the Indy O will test the Steelers� endurance. There are 3 components to that:

� Chasing the stretch laterally.

� Manning�s pre-snap antics typically keep D-linemen in stance. The Pats countered that by eliminating down linemen, with a number of 5-6 LB sets.

� The no-huddle, like the Bills� old Red Gun (also constructed by current Indy GM Bill Polian) limits substitution options. This is going to be a problem for Hampton and, maybe, KVO.

What to expect:

The last time the Steelers played Indy, it was, pretty much, Manning to Marvin or nothing at all. Following a catastrophic knee injury, Edge James was slowly rounding back into form; Reggie Wayne had yet to develop and neither Stokely nor Clark were on the team. Then, the Colts had a mediocre run game and limited receiving weapons. Now, their run game is near to the top, statistically, and Manning has 4 quality targets.

The Colts have built an offense to win on the ground or through the air. Possibly, that diversity can be exploited, or turned against them. Indy has shown a willingness to get into whatever kind of game an opponent�s defense dictates. They ground it against Jacksonville and Cleveland, content to win low-scoring affairs. Last week, the Bengals sold out against the run H1, and were bombarded in the air. Facing the Bengals� 8-in, single high, man out, the Colts scored on their opening 5 possessions. At the half, Manning had 3 TD and 272 yards, on just 23 attempts. Edge James was no factor; he had 29 yards on 9 trips.

It is well known that one key to defeating the Colt O is to defeat Manning�s pre-snap reads. That�s disguise, or trickeration. The PS can accomplish that in packages, less so in the base. As for pressure, well, the PSD has shown little ability to pressure out of their base, but some from the packs.

The Colts� stretch series places considerable pressure on the middle of the field. If the ILB are flowing, then the Colts will be throwing; if not, they�ll try to get Edge on the edge. The next play Larry Foote makes in the pass game will be the first. This suggests that the set of choice for the PSD this week is 3-3-5, or quarter.

The packages may give something against the run but here�s the thing. The PS must remove one aspect from Indy�s multi-faceted attack. By lore, that�s the run but in my opinion the Steelers� choice amounts to this: Peyton Manning can beat the PSD but Edge James cannot. The stretch is a play action run; Indy�s inside run game, predicated on the draw, is similarly dependent on the air game threat. Most teams run to set up the pass but the Colts do not. Take away the air, and, even in packs, the PS can win the battle on the ground.

Keys v. Indianapolis O:

� Safety deep: Those teams that had best success with Indy (NE, Carolina and Jacksonville) are Cover 2 teams. The Steelers are not well configured to play that style. That is because their safeties are better playmakers than their ILB. The PSD is better fit for single high, which suggests the PS may lock up Ike Taylor on Reggie Wayne (not Marvin Harrison).

         �         Disrupt the Colt receivers: As is well known, NE played the Colt receivers physically; that is true of their CB, especially Ty Law in 2003, and their LB too, especially in the 2004 Divisional round. The Panther CB typically play a physical game as well.    Though it�s been said before: the young Steeler CB, especially Taylor, can overmatch most WR physically. In zone, they, especially Taylor, do have recognition issues.

�    Punish Edge James: James is it in the run game; he provides Manning a degree of security checking down. The PSD must deny Manning that easy option.

*    Set the edge: The Colts are a wide running team. The PS OLB can, and must, defeat Colt TE Dallas Clark and Bryan Fletcher.

*     Bull the Colt IOL: As noted, the Colt O-line works as a unit, moving laterally. Stunts figure to be ineffective, as, in the zone block scheme, O-linemen will block an alley, not a man. However, the PS D-line has a considerable power advantage in this segment. If the PS D-linemen can bow that line, then the PS will win in the run game, whether in base or package sets.

On the other side of the ball:

D-side comparison, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh:

PPG

YPG

Plays faced

Rush

YPC

Pass

YPA

v. QB

Rating

Sacks

Takes

3^rd down

Penalty

Yards

Steelers

16.1

(3^rd)

290.7

(6^th)

645

(24^th)

3.2

(1^st)

6.48

(8^th)

71.1

(6^th)

(5^th)

(T-4)

42.9%

(29^th)

29^th

Colts

15.2

(2^nd)

293.4

(8^th)

578

(2^nd)

4.5

(T-28^th)

6.76

(15^th)

79.0

(14^th)

(3^rd)

(T-12^th)

39.2%

(19)

5^th

Notes:

� The key stat is plays faced. Last season, the PSD was on the field for just 882 plays. They are on pace for 1032 this year; if they get there, well, that will be 20 more than those run by that all-world clocking PSO of 2004, 1012.

� The Colts are second in the League in (fewest) points allowed. They are second in the League in (fewest) plays faced. Figure it out.

Colts� D-personnel:

Indy�s defense is built to stop the pass, not to stop the run. They play pass with pressure, more than coverage; in fact, their best on-ball pass defenders are LB, those being part of the 5-under that makes their Cover 2 go. Like that Coach Dungy left behind in Tampa, these LBs all are ~ SS size; the 3 starters range from 227-235#. In fact, WOLB Cato June is a converted S, having played that spot at U-Michigan. MLB Gary Brackett is a short, fast MLB in the Al Wilson mode; he is a considerable upgrade over Rob Morris, however, there is a vast range from Morris up to mediocre. Finally, SOLB David Thornton is a converted weakside player, having moved over when Marcus Washington moved out.

Speed is the theme: the Tampa 2 does require LB who can get deep drops, thereby allowing the S either to invert or help the CB over the top. Mike Peterson, now in Jacksonville, but originally a Colt, is the exemplar for this corps; not big but fast and capable of playing with force. Unfortunately for Indy, none of these players have, as yet, reached Peterson�s level. This LB corps is a set of tweeners; they do not have LB size and they do not DB speed. They have played effectively this season, but that is less about their own merit than that upfront on the Colt D-line.

The same is true for the DB. Continuing the SS theme: both Indy starting safeties are, in fact, SS types. Bob Sanders is listed at FS, but his strength is in run support, not coverage. He has plenty of speed but route recognition is an issue. That said, Sanders is a force in all aspects; he is a smurf (5-8) but plays with exceptional toughness. Mike Doss is nominally the starter at SS but Indy�s plan coming into this season was to pair Joseph Jefferson, not Doss, with Sanders. Jefferson is a converted CB; he has size (6-1, 202 and speed (4.38); however, he has been hampered by injury throughout his career. Doss is best suited as a package, in the box safety (ala Mike Logan, circa 2002); he has only marginal playing speed and below average turning ability. He can play going forward, but that�s it.

LCB Nick Harper is the Colts lead CB, which explains why they are a Cover 2 team. Harper is a former UDFA out of Fort Valley State; he can convert some plays, off bad throws, but is far from a lockdown CB. Jason David starts on the other side; David has some coverage ability but, by NFL standards, he is not a small CB. He is a microscopic CB. The Steelers� Chidi Iwuoma has some coverage skills too; however, as we�ve seen, he�s so tiny that those don�t factor. The same is true of David.

R1 rookie Marlin Jackson is the Colts� nickel; Jackson is a solid player with considerable big game (collegiate) experience. When he and Jefferson move in as starters, the Colts DB corps will go up in class. However, that�s a date now uncertain. Still, there is little talent dropoff when Jackson and Jefferson come in and, in fact, that may be an upgrade. This suggests that the PS would be ill advised to feature multi-wide packs. In turn, that does place on an emphasis on playing on or near the lead.

Indy wins upfront. RDE Dwight Freeney is a freak; in his 2002 Combine, Freeney, at 263#, did 28 reps and a 4.41 40. In that 40, his time at 10 yards was 1.45, better than any prospect at any position (including RB, WR and DB) in that class. It is no surprise then that Freeney�s 3-year sack haul has eclipsed every player this side of the immortal Reverend Reggie.

Unlike most speed rushers, Freeney can play the run. He is low; he is powerful and he is explosive. On the other side, Robert Mathis, who leads the team with 10 sacks, also leads all D-linemen with 43 T; surprising, since at 235#, Mathis is a 20-snap per game player. The Colts starting LDE, Raheem Brock, is the weak link, poor against the run and average as a rush DE; he�s a starter because the Colts have no one better able. That said, he is a high try guy who has had some impact as a package, rush DT.

The Colts have a quartet of DT, all with starting experience. This is not best unit on the team, but it is the deepest. Corey Simon, in from Philadelphia starts at LDT. Larry Triplett is his backup. Montae Reagor, in from Denver, starts at RDT; Josh Williams, a starter until last season, is his backup. These players are listed at 285-293 but Simons is bigger and Reagor is probably smaller. All 4 are upfield types, although Triplett has seen some action on the nose.

What to expect:

No doubt, the Steelers can run the ball against the Colt base. Therefore, it is doubtful that they�ll see (much of) the Colt base. Last week, Baltimore thwarted the Steeler run game, starting 8 bigs (D-linemen or LB) and playing all upfield, all the time. Certainly, that was effective against the epically immobile Tommy Maddox, especially after the PS O-side braintrust elected to make Heath Miller tackle-eligible for a day. Yes, Trai Essex needed all the help he could get; however, in (effectively) removing Miller from the receiving corps, the PSO heads effectively removed their best (or only) target in the middle, the spot routinely vacated by Baltimore�s blitzing Scott and Polley.

Roethlisberger, when healthy, has the strength and agility to convert plays against that all-in mode. We saw that early this season. However, it�s no sure thing that Roethlisberger is healthy. The Colts figure to test that proposition. Opening up: expect 5 down, with Indy trading out of their DT depth, seeking to stop the PS run. Since the Colt LB cover about as well as the Colt S, that trio figures to stay on. Therefore, when in this set, Indy will sit either David or Doss, depending on down, distance and PS personnel.

Unlike Baltimore, the Colts will not send their LB. They don�t have too; Colt D-linemen have 30 of Indy�s 32 sacks. On pass plays, the Colt OLB will help their CB inside and under (ref: Tennessee, regular season 2002; tell: Colt CB playing outside and over) while Brackett drops into the middle. This will leave room for Miller; his utilization is one key Monday.

The scheme outlined above is no Cover 2 but we�ve seen little evidence to suggest this set of PS receivers demands Cover 2. In the early going, El Ced did make plays deep. However, there are a couple of mitigating factors. First, level of competition: Tony Beckham and Phil Buchanon are far from elite CB. Then too, most of those big gainers converted broken plays. In this game, (presuming he eludes the first wave) Roethlisberger will have less scramble time. The PS OT can push the Indy DE wide, once per play, but those guys do get back fast. That fact alone suggests Staley and Haynes see considerable time.

It�s a copycat League. Baltimore�s gambit last week was nothing we hadn�t seen before. Sure, Maddox�s limitations were a factor but the Jets did it twice last season, both during the regular season and in the Divisional round. In the AFCC, NE did it on early downs. With Roethlisberger or without, the PSO has struggled against unconventional fronts. As conceived, the Steelers are a running team and so, as conceived, when they can�t run they do struggle. This O-line is not the O-line of 1996-97, or 2001, or even 2004. Too bad; there it is.

Conclusion:

In an alternative universe, this MNF encounter is the game of the year. There, the 9-1 Pittsburgh Steelers invade Hoosier Land, lair of the greatest of clan Manning, the man around whom the League Office reconfigured the game. In that world, commentators must note that Peyton is the Last Big Thing; that, with Roethlisberger at the helm, the Steelers, not the Colts, have the most potent pass attack in all of football. Not the most prolific, but the most potent: YPA and, to a lesser extent, QB rating being the prime indicators. The Steelers lead in those areas; the Colts, though close, do trail.

We are where we are. Here, the Steelers are looking up at Indy and at Denver too. They are a tiebreaker shy with the Jags but one up with the Bengals. Here, we look back to meetings with past Tony Dungy teams, intoning this incantation: to beat the Dungy 2, beat down the Dungy 2. Everyone knows that but there is one crucial difference: these Colts can score but those Bucs could not.

Championship teams can win all kinds of games. Consider the Pats: in one Super season, they beat the Colts 38-34; in the next, they beat them 20-3. These 2005 Colts, seeking to dethrone their nemesis, have won big, and they�ve won ugly too. As for these Pittsburgh Steelers: well, they�ve run effectively against some opponents, but more often, not. To be the best, this season, they�re going to have to win by other means. To be the best, within the Manning Rules, they�re going to have to develop the fortitude to get into a shoot-out, as necessary. It�s a good bet they�ll have that opportunity Monday night. Buckle up.

Note to readers:

No Game 12 Preview here. The Bengals were covered, so far as I care to do so, pre-Game 6.

Back of the book, 2 tables:

Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:

2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:

	First Half			Second Half			Final
	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Score
v. Titans	16	9	20-7	25	2	14-0	41	11	34-7
@ Texans	15	16	20-0	17	6	7-7	32	22	27-7
v. Patriots	11	12	10-7	10	21	10-16	21	33	20-23
@ Chargers	18	16	14-7	13	12	10-15	31	28	24-22
v. Jaguars	11	14	14-10	14 OT: 3	17 OT: 2	3-7 0-06	28	33	17-23
@Bengals	14	9	7-6	29	6	20-7	43	15	27-13
v. Ravens	13	19	10-10	13	15	10-9	26	34	20-19
@ Green Bay	9	10	13-3	16	11	7-7	25	21	20-10
Cleveland	14	21	17-7	24	8	17-14	38	29	34-21
@ Baltimore	6	17	6-13	11 OT: 4	26 OT: 5	13-13 0- 03	21	48	13-16

Notes:

� Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.

� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.

� Aborted snaps, ala v. Green Bay and Jacksonville, are not counted either as runs or passes.

PSD 3^rd down performance, stops/attempts, thru 8 games:

Acceptable rate	3^rd & 1 �3 20%	3^rd & 4-5 NF	3^rd & 6 to 9 67%	3^rd & 10 or more 90%	Remarks
Thru 8 games	10/33 30%	12/18 67%	26/39 67%	17/26 65.3%	Good performance on 3^rd and short. Unacceptable performance on 3^rd and long.
v. Cleveland	0/2	2/2	1/3	3/4	Steelers got a gift +10 stop on Northcutt�s drop.
@ Baltimore	1/3	4/6	4/6	4/5	Excellent job getting Baltimore in 3^rd and long
Season totals	11/38 29%	18/26 69%	31/48 65%	24/35 68%	In the last 2 games, PSD was 12/18 on 3^rd and 6 or longer. Not good enough.

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