2005 Game 6 Preview

October 21, 2005 by Steel Phantom

2005 Game 2 Preview

2005 Game 6 Preview

Sure, it�s early but for the 3-2 Steelers, this is a must-win.� Do so, and they�re even with Cincinnati in the loss column; flop, and they�re 2 down.� Even with 9-10 to go, that�s a considerable margin.� There�s momentum too: the Bengals have it but the Steelers, having gift-wrapped one for the Jags last weekend, do not.�

Doable?� Well, yeah: both of these teams are 2-1 against common opponents (Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville).� The main difference is that the Bengals opened 3-0, feasting on the soft underbelly of the NFL: Cleveland, Minnesota and Chicago. The next 5 weeks will tell.� In that period, Cincinnati will face both the Steelers and Ravens twice, and host Indy too.� They will have Buffalo and KC at the close as well, two teams likely to be in wildcard contention.�

Credit to the Bengals, since they did what they had to do early, beat on bottomfeeders, but from here their road does wind upward.� While most mavens feature the tiger-striped O and glam QB Carson Palmer, in fact, it is their D-side takeaway rate that has keyed the Bengals� emergence this season.� We�ll start there.�

�D-side comparison, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh:�

	Bengals	Steelers	Remarks
Points per game	14.0	16.4	Bengals are #4, Steelers #5 but note difference in TOP
Takeaways	21	11	Bengals are #1, Steelers T-11
TOP against	26:55	31:16	Bengals are #4, Steelers 25^th
3^rd down rate	35.2%	44.3%	Part of the reason for the TOP bulge noted above; see also takeaways.� Bengals are 9^th, Steelers 29^th.
Red Zone rate	8/16	8/16	Both teams are about average in the RZ
Run stopping	117.2/game	87.6	Cincy has allowed 4.9YPC, 29^th.� Steelers have allowed 3.4 YPC, T-5.�
YPA against	5.99, #4	7.04, #16	YPA differential (O-D) is a huge factor; Steeler O is #1, Bengal O #3.�
Penalty yards	450 in 6 games	431 in 5 games	On a per game basis, only Carolina has been assessed more yards than the PSD

Of note:�

Cincinnati�s run D is ranked #21 but is much worse than that.� Teams have averaged just 24 attempts per game (5^th fewest).� That�s the effect of those takeaways and TOP, in part; plus, the Bengals have generally played with a lead. Their YPC against rate, 4.9 for 29^th, is more telling with respect to their run D.

The Bengals lead the League in INT with 14.� Of those, 5 from Duante Culpepper and 5 from Kyle Orton, Weeks 2 and 3.� The Bengals were the first team in 34 years to pick off 5 back to back.� They got Dilfer and McNair for two each too, Weeks 1 and 6.�

The Bengal D does one thing well; they do get the ball.� Part of that is a function of scheme; while the Bengals cannot get pressure simply by rushing 4, they have utilized some aggressive blitz packs to force bad throws.� On the downside, they�re not stopping the run any better than last year, or the one before, two seasons during which they were at the bottom of the League.�� Week 5, the Jaguars beat Cincy by running effectively and taking care of the ball.� That�s old school, but it works.� Reviewing the Bengal D-personnel, we can see why.

Cincinnati has two vets at DT, John Thornton and Bryan Robinson, but little behind.� Thornton, once part of that powerful DT stable in Tennessee, is a solid player; stout in the run game and capable of getting some push too.� Robinson, considered the next big thing in Chicago, where he played effectively from �99 to �01, flopped thereafter but did resurrect his career last season in Miami.�� Robinson was a pass rusher with the Bears but at this stage is (probably) a 40 snap stuffer only; conditioning has been a bugaboo for this man. Shaun Smith, is a 2^nd year man straight out of Brooklyn by way of South Carolina; #3 at the spot, he is a #320 block absorber.� Matthias Askew, R4 2004, evidently lacks something in toughness; a constant on the gameday inactive list, he is the Bengals answer to Hot Tub Harrison.��

LDE Justin Smith is a high motor guy with good pass rush abilities; at 270#, he does lack sand at the POA but he will battle and is an exceptional pursuit player.� RDE Robert Gaethers is a 2^nd year player who contributed last season as a package rusher; he has yet to show in the run game.� Gaethers has flipped roles with long-timer Duane Clemons, now a package lineman.� Carl Powell rounds out the Bengal D-line corps; a career backup, Powell can rush some, inside or out.�

While their D-line is mainly comprised of vets, past Brian Simmons, the Bengal LB corps is young.� R2 rook Odell Thurman is an upgrade from the suspects who have occupied the Bengal MLB spot over the past couple of seasons.� Thurman is fast, and he is aggressive; he is a Mike Peterson type but is a long way, experience-wise, from matching Peterson�s production down after down.� Thurman is just #235 and his running mate, Landon Johnson, is just #227.�� Both struggle to stack; both flow to the ball but are susceptible to misdirection.� Within this group, the wildcard is David Pollack.� A R1 pick last spring, Pollack held out nearly through camp.� A college DE, Pollack has struggled picking up a new position, SOLB.� However, he has contributed as a package DE, and, last week, made his first start, in place of Johnson. When Pollack gets it, and he will, the Bengal LB corps will have a new dimension, a playmaker with good size and exceptional football intelligence.��

The Bengal CB, Tory James and Delthea O�Neal, have size and good ball skills.� However, there are reasons why both are retreads.� James can run but at this stage lacks real makeup speed.� He doesn�t turn well and so prefers keeping the play in front; that suits his preference in run force too, which is to say, not.� O�Neal lacks top end speed and, in his eagerness to get the ball, is highly susceptible to double moves.� The Bengal NCB, 2^nd year man Keiwan Ratliff, has exceptional hands and return ability; however, he is small and, while quick, not fast.� The Bengals will blitz Ratliff repetitively from the slot; you might think of this player as a younger Deshea Townsend.��

Though just in his 2^nd season, Madieu Williams has started at every DB spot.� Williams is not big, he is not fast either but he is a football player.� If he�s good to go, he is the Bengals� FS, one capable of playing most #2 WR.� Williams missed Game 5 and did not start Game 6; Kevin Kaesviharn, who did, has awareness and good ball skills but lacks speed.� Both of these players go about 195#; both will hit but neither are thumpers.� Ifeanyi Ohalete is; a fill-in starter at SS in Washington a couple years ago (displaced by Sean Taylor), Ohalete, at #221, can play in the box, if not in space.��

Bengal INT:

4: O�Neal
2:� James, Ratliff, Kaesviharn and Thurman
1:� Simmons and Williams

What to expect:��

If this were last season, then the PS would try to ram it home.� Week 4 2004, Staley rushed for 123 yards on 25 carries leading the PS to a 28-17 win.� Week 11 2004, Bettis picked up 129 on 29 trips; Bettis was the Steelers most effective weapon in a hard-gained 19-14 road win, during which the Bengals� blitz put Roethlisberger down 7 times in just 28 dropbacks.��

It�s a good bet Sunday�s game will be the Jerome Bettis show.� In 18 goes at the Bengals, the Bus has rolled for 1,725 yards and 16 TD.� However, Coach Bill might consider that it�s not 1997 anymore, and that this Steeler O-line shows more kinship with the 2002-03 set than, say 1996-97, 2001 or 2004.�

The Steeler run game is headed south.� After opening with 206, the PSO rushed for: 136, 79, 104, and 73.� Game situation has not been a factor; the Steelers were in every game.� On the season, the PSO ranks 13^th rushing, at a mediocre 119.4 per game.� Pull out the opener and it�s 95.25, which would be good for 20^th.� Over the past 3, 85.33, which is 2003 bad.��

The signs were there this summer.� Then, 5 PS RB packed the pig but excluding Willie Parker, none averaged more than 3.0 YPC.� In the regular season, 4 PS RB have packed the pig and, excluding Willie Parker, none have averaged more than 3.0 YPC.� While it seems evident (now) that the PSO kept their pass game under wraps in August, run-wise, well, what we saw then is what we�re seeing now.�

The reasons are clear enough.� The Steelers have persisted in a two TE set even though they do not have a TE that can turn any edge defender.� In contrast consider Jag TE Kyle Brady�s work last week.� Early, Brady led Greg Jones against the Steelers� left; late in H1, Brady led Greg Jones against the Steelers right.�

Heath Miller is a player, but he�s not a tackle-eligible and, since he�s already the Steelers� #2 receiver that ought not be his role. Jerame Tuman is the Steelers blocking TE, supposedly.� Maybe, he�s still #1 in that regard (here) but he�s no Walter Rasby.� Late last season and in pre-season last August, Rasby established as the Steelers� best blocking TE.� Had the PS kept Rasby in preference to Tuman, they�d now be ahead cap-wise and, probably, on-field too.�

No surprise that Max Starks is struggling with speed.� However, Starks can plow; the problem on that side is that neither Tuman nor Simmons can.� If not previously, we now can expect opponents to play the Steeler right straight up on run downs, overloading left, while inverting on pass downs, then overloading Starks, and driving back either Simmons or Tuman.� Or both.�� As for the short pull inside run game, well, suffice to say that the PS OC can�t get out unless the PS OG can seal.� These PS have one OG who can and one OG who cannot.��

Last week, it was observed here that while early PS opponents had sold out to stop the run, they�d been gouged in the pass game.� That is reflected in YPA; even after last Sunday�s debacle, the PSO still leads the League.� Sooner or later, it then was said, PS opponents would play the run straight up, and play Cover 2 behind.� Last week, we saw some of that; relying on their jumbo DT tandem, the Jags played 7 in, mixing man-out and Cover 2.� Those DT dominated and the Jag playmakers (Hayward, Peterson and Mathis) looked like all-Pros.�

This week, expect more of the same.� With Ward hobbled, the Steelers do not have a WR that commands double teams.� Nor does Miller; while he has exceptional hands and does run tough, he is not a TE that can run away from anyone.� Except as Pollack gets off, the Bengals cannot rush just 4; instead, IMO, they will man on the edge, (try to) hold the point inside and mix their fast LB, S and package DB in blitz and in underneath coverage.� Broadly, that describes the Jags approach last week; absolutely, it describes the Bengals approach in Week 11 last year.��

Keys:

� TOP: �The Bengal D has benefited from a favorable TOP ratio.� Playing ahead, or playing in packages, they�re pretty good.� Straight up, well, they really haven�t been tested.��

� Take care of the ball:� setting takeaways aside, this Bengal defense is ordinary, maybe less than that.

� Pass to score:� In fact, this has been the Steelers� strategy for a couple seasons: balance early, get out and then grind.� As noted (and evident in their 3^rd down rate), the Bengals are good in packages.� However, their base can be had, by ground or in the air.� The playcalling implications, on a down basis, are apparent.

� Beat the blitz:� the Bengals will send Ratliff and their LB.� Two words: Heath Miller.�

� Run to win:� Lacking a clock control passing game, the PS must run to control tempo. This week, Coach Bill may be tempted to bang the Bus early and often.� However, this season, Willie Parker is the Steelers� best pure RB.� Then too, the Bengals have been susceptible to the lateral game.� Fred Taylor, cutback runner extraordinaire, had 24/132; Dom Davis, one cut and go, 19/81; Chris Brown 18/84.� Those are 2005 highs for both Taylor and Brown; for Davis #2.� Additionally, Thomas Jones of Chicago, wriggled to 27/106 and banger Reuben Droughns 12/78.� In sum: the Bengals have yielded top games to cutback runners and to plow backs (Droughns) too.� That is because, with few exceptions (Williams), the Bengal back 7 are bad tacklers.� After Jacksonville rang up about 180 yards against them, the Bengal braintrust estimated 90 followed initial contact, or came after an initial whiff.�

In the past 3 weeks, the PS run game has been stuffed repetitively: by NE (in a reprise of the AFCC), San Diego (a very fine run D) and Jacksonville, a team whose front is ideally configured to stop the PSO run.� Cincinnati is not in that class.� For two years, they�ve had one of the worst run Ds in football; it�s not obvious they�ve improved.� In sum: if the PS can�t run on Cincinnati, they can�t run on anyone at all.� If that�s so, well, it may be a long, long season.��

On the other side of the ball:

The Bengals return all 5 starters from the 2005 O-line.� That�s LT Levi Jones, LG Eric Steinbach, OC Rich Braham, RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson.� Jones and Steinbach are rising young players, Williams is a just a guy, Willie Anderson is still playing effectively, even with a chronically ailing knee and Rich Braham is playing hurt too, having been knocked out of Game 4.�� Behind Braham, R4 rook Elvis Ghiaciuc, a high KEI day 2 prospect; Ghiaciuc did play reasonably effectively Week 5 v. Jacksonville.� Braham returned last week and Ghiaciuc is now on the injury report..��

The Bengals may be susceptible in the middle.� However, it is worth noting that Rudi Johnson is the last RB to gain 100 yards against the Steelers; that was behind this O-line, Week 4, 2004.� Johnson remains the lead dog (or cat) and, belying rumors pertaining to some chronic knee condition, he is #6 in the NFL rushing and is getting 21 trips per game.� Chris Perry, R1 2004 but largely inactive that season, certainly is contributing this year.� Perry has 32 rushes at 4.7; more significantly, Perry is #2 on the team with 27 receptions.� Generally, Perry has been the Bengals 3^rd down back; however, Cincinnati has some sets featuring both RBs, Johnson single and Perry in the slot.� Jeremi Johnson is a capable lead FB with some receiving skills; of Jeremi�s 4 receptions, 2 have been TD, both RZ.�

3 Bengal TE have 14 receptions, led by Matt Schobel with 8.� However, the TE is a declining factor in Cincinnati.� The Bengals are dominantly a 3-wide team.� Chad Johnson is #1.� With TJ Houshmandzadeh hurt, Kevin Walter has taken the possession role (7R in past 2 games).� R3 rook Chris Henry has flashed as a downfield threat.��

Of course, this galaxy of semi-luminaries revolves around the new Sun King, QB Carson Palmer.� Palmer, the first player taken in 2003, seems to be one of a very few Heisman winners worth the hype.� Certainly, the numbers are impressive:

� 9 straight games with a +100 QB rating.� That is tied all-time with NFL marketing�s golden child, Peyton Manning.�

� Palmer is #2 in QB rating, 113.6, behind Roethlisberger at 123.8.

� Palmer is T-3 in YPA at 7.99.� Tom Brady has the same number.� Roethlisberger is #1 and Bledsoe #2.�

� Palmer has thrown just 2 INT in 187 attempts, none in his past 148.� As a result, the Bengal O is T-2 in fewest turnovers (5).�� Coupled with their (21) takes, they led the NFL in the all-important take margin, +16.�

Impressive, but IMO Palmer has yet to show he�s not just another robo-QB, the Drew Bledsoe of the New Millennium.� Certainly, that�s a proposition we�d like to see the PSD prove this weekend.� Palmer does have all the skills; in that aspect, he�s as good as it gets.� Under pressure, well, we don�t know.� He hasn�t been under pressure this season.�

What to expect:�

Beyond doubt, the Bengals will bring 3-wide early and often.� That is their preferred set anyway and, with 3 Steeler CB questionable this week, that set is a mortal lock.� 3-wide will force the PS into nickel, whether heavy (3S) or the standard 3 CB, 2S.� Normally, the PS do not use heavy nickel against 3-wide; however, given their CB situation, it is highly likely they will do so this time.� Though rumor has it Ike Taylor will draw Chad Johnson, IMO it�ll be Polamalu, most often used as a sort of 3^rd CB.� Generally, Johnson lines up left and, generally, the Steelers do not flip their CB.� In contrast, their 2005 defense is built around Polamalu�s versatility.�

Last week, we saw the future and that is Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden on the corners.� Both hit like safeties (which, in itself, may render the heavy nickel redundant) and, while neither turn exceptionally well, both have flashed makeup speed, especially Taylor.� With Chad Johnson and Chris Henry on the wings, Palmer looks long before settling under.� More often than not, the PS will roll coverage to Johnson, most teams do.� To close off the underneath game, they must be able to single Henry.� IMO, Taylor is the guy.��

If the young PS CB can hold up, the Steelers will have the opportunity to make plays in underneath coverage.� That�s Farrior and Polamalu, (when acting as a package LB).� The Steelers can gain an advantage here.� As indicated by their Red Zone performance, 10 TD in 23 trips, the Bengals have not won underneath consistently.� However, it is worth noting that ~4 RZ trips per game (23/6) is a good number.� True, the Bengal D has contributed field position (21 takeways) but the Bengal O has produced (16) drives of (60) yards or more

There is a downside to the heavy nickel: while #3 S Mike Logan may be about as stout in the box as ILB Larry Foote, Logan is little better than Foote in space.� Tyrone Carter made the team because he played better in deep coverage than did Stuviants; this week, Carter may get his chance to show.� Additionally, Carter may be a good match against Chris Perry, and Perry has made the Bengal under pass game go.

2004 R1 surprise pick Chris Perry, though most often used as a 3^rd down back, is likely to get his third start of this season.� The Bengals will try to make the PS LB play Perry.� If, instead, the LeBeau men match with a safety, then some Bengal WR certainly will have single coverage.� Palmer, a disciplined QB, will see it and go that way.� If Perry doesn�t start, the same obtains on 3^rd down.

Starting or not, Rudi Johnson will have his opportunities.� Johnson is a straight-ahead power back, the kind the PS traditionally eat up.�� This week their Front personnel will be tested, as, in the base v 3-wide, the PS Front 7 will have to limit Johnson with no safety help.� Obviously, in nickel v. 3-wide, the Steelers will have a Front 6; then, we can expect to see Jeremi Johnson leading.� Here�s the thing:� Rudi Johnson cannot beat the Steelers, but the Bengals� multiple option pass attack can.� That�s the challenge; remove Palmer�s options.�

Keys:�

� TOP, 2: In the past few weeks, the Bengal O has started slow but come on.� The Bengals are #4 in TOP, (#2 in total offense), #4 in plays run and #4 in points per game.� Figure it out.� The PSO has a role in this but the PSD could self-help if they could get off the field on 3^rd down.� On the plus side, they did so against the Jags last week, allowing just 7/19 3^rd down conversions.� It�s worth noting the PSD was exceptional on 3^rd and short, 3/5 stops.� However, they permitted two 3^rd and 10+ conversions, plus another by penalty.� That is killing.�

� Strip Palmer of his options:� Palmer has improved as he�s learned to check down, take the under rather than forcing it deep.� It follows the PS must deny him (some of) those options.�� IMO, Perry and Henry are key in that; they are the primary additions to the Bengals skill corps.� So:

� Do not let Chris Perry release:� The Bengals use Perry about like the Texans use Domanick Davis, or the Rams once used Marshall Faulk.� The prescription is the same; disrupt and punish.��

� Tag Chris Henry: �Henry is a good athlete, but he�s not better than Fragile Freddy Gibson, let alone Matt Jones or Vincent Jackson, two other big WR of the class of 2004.� The PS DB must test Henry�s courage; they can get in his head.�� Either CB, McFadden or Taylor, has the speed and physicality to handle Henry; Taylor is the surer choice.�

� Win in the middle:� The PS must take advantage of Braham and Williams; gut pressure, presumably from the ILB, will create some bad throws.�� In packages, give KVO a go v. Bobbie Williams.�

Conclusion:�

Last week, the Steelers gave one away.� Short week, sure; physical opponent, sure; trap game, maybe; but the fact remains: that tilt was there for the taking, and the PS passed.� From there, two possibilities: either the team curls up and blows away, or they come out� in a state of cold rage and dismantle this week�s opposition.� More than W/L, more than the loss column item noted in the opening, this game is crucial because this is the game that will tell all about these 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers.�

Back of the book:

Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:

2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:

	First Half			Second Half			Final
	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Score
v. Titans	16	9	20-7	25	2	14-0	41	11	34-7
@ Texans	15	16	20-0	17	6	� 7-7	32	22	27-7
v. Patriots	11	12	10-7	10	21	10-16	21	33	20-23
@ Chargers	18	16	14-7	13	12	10-15	31	28	24-22
v. Jaguars	11	14	14-10	14 OT: 3	17 OT: 2	3-7 0-6	28	33	17-23

Note:

� Kneeldowns, considered non-plays here, are deleted from run totals.

� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.�

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