Smitter�s Week 1 Picks vs the spread
This year, in a new feature to Stillers.com, I will pick the
winners of the weekend�s games against the point spread. I don�t have any magic
formula, I can�t tell you what a team�s record is against the spread the week
after a Monday night road game, can�t tell you the Steelers� record against the
spread on overcast October afternoons against teams with an animal for a
nickname. But, the last few years I have done well picking against the spread.
Two years ago I picked at a 56% clip, while last year I was a tad under 59%.
Last time I saw Triv and Mill, over a few beers, I mentioned this to them, and
they suggested I pick the games for the website. So, without further delay,
here are the Smitter�s picks for Week 1.
Oakland (+ 7 �) at New England � Potent Oakland
offense may be test for revamped NE defense. Of course, unless the Oakland
defense has improved, it may not mean much. I take the Raiders + 7 � in
the season opener.
Tennessee (+ 7 �) at Pittsburgh � Me thinks
the new tackles for Tennessee are in for a long day. I�m taking the Steelers
� 7 �
Denver (- 4 �) at Miami � I�m usually a big fan of
home underdogs, but just can�t pick the Dolphins in this game. My pick is Denver
� 4 �
Cincinnati (- 3 �) at Cleveland � I am not
sold on the Bengals, but the Browns are awful. But, I am taking the Browns +
3 � in front of the home fans.
Houston (+5 �) at Buffalo � I saw a Steeler-Bills
game in Buffalo, seen baseball and an AstroBluebonnet Bowl in Houston, so I�ll
pick the Bills � 5 �
Chicago (+ 6 �) at Washington � Pity the
football fans who can only watch this game on Sunday. I�ll take the Skins �
6 �
New Orleans (+7 �) at Carolina � Big question
is how the devastion of New Orleans, the relocation of the Saints to San
Antonio, and the uncertainty of where their home games will be played will
affect the Saints. I say, at least in this game, it brings the team together. I�ll
take the Saints + 7 �
Tampa Bay (+6 �) at Minnesota � No truth
to the rumors Mike Tice is already scalping Super Bowl XL tickets. Minnesota
� 6 �
Seattle (+3 �) at Jacksonville � Jax cut
ex-Steelers Fu and Troy Edwards, but I still like the Jags � 3 �
N.Y Jets (+3 �) at Kansas City � This should
be a decent game, two teams with high aspirations battling in a tough place for
visitors. I�m taking the J-E-T-S + 3 �
Arizona (+ 2 �) at N.Y. Giants � I�m
picking the Cardinals + 2 � �simply because they will be getting out of 108 degree high temps in
Phoenix.
St Louis (- 5 �) at San Francisco � I pick
St Louis to advance to the Super Bowl, but the same way I like the Brownies
playing at home with a new coach against a fierce division rival, I also like San
Fran + 5 �
Green Bay (+ 3 �) at Detroit � Huh?
Detroit favored against the Pack. I don�t see it and am picking the Packs +
3 �
Dallas (+ 4 �) at San Diego � No Gates,
and I believe Brees gets off to a rough start. Over/Under for Chargers� fans
calling for Rivers is middle of 3rd quarter. I like the Cowgirls
+ 4 �
Indianapolis (+ 3 �) at Baltimore � Let�s
see how this supposedly great BrownRavens defense handles the best. I like
Peyton and the Colts + 3 �
Philadelphia (- 1 �) at Atlanta � Eagles have
got to be relieved the season is starting with the TO distraction, but I like
the Falcons + 1 � at home in front of the national TV audience.
It seems that when I first see the pointspreads on Monday
morning, there are always two or three that just stick out as good picks. I
will call these my First Look Goodies (FLG�s) This week, my FLG�s are:
Browns + 3 � over Cincy
Saints + 7 � over Carolina
Cowboys + 4 � over San Diego