Postscript

May 02, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Free Agents:

Draft 2003, Postscript:

The over/under on the number of rookie free agents making the club is (3), that�s the line in the Colbert Era anyway. In 2000, Dan Kreider, Ainsley Battles and Donnell Thompson made the squad (Hank Fraley did not, but that�s a different article).� In 2001, Keydrick Vincent, Chris Hoke and Justin Kurpeikis came aboard.� Erik Totten and James Harrison were late season, injury adds from the practice squad; those players, along with Josh Burr and Antoine McCray remain from last year�s rookie FA group.�

Listing this year�s D-side wannabe(s):

Position	Player	Height	Weight	Remarks
NT	Roy Attieh	6016	312	PFW had as #47 at DT, GBN #7 between all FA DT and, APPS as # 5 among sleeper DT.
DE	David Upchurch	6030	283	PFW had as #22 DT, GBN as #6 between all FA DT and APPS as #1 among sleeper DT.
DE	Dan Rumishek	6033	273	PFW had as #34 at DE.
ILB	Terrence Robinson	6003	240	PFW had as #18 of (37) ILB, GBN as #9 among all FA LB.
ILB	Dantoine Burnette	5100	235	PFW had him 37^th and last of (37) ILB listed.
DB	Rashad Faison	5085	190	PFW had him #35 at CB; AOL says he is, pound for pound, one of the big hitters in the draft.
CB	Nashville Dyer	5-10	182	No information found, teammate of Attieh.
SS	Russell Stuviants	6-0	195	No information found, LB at Youngstown State.

PFW gave both Upchurch and Robinson a 6^th round rating; Rumishek and Faison were in the range of �priority FA who could end up getting drafted.�� Attieh was not highly regarded at PFW but his proximity to Upchurch in the GBN lists suggests he may have some kind of chance.� The others are probably camp fodder.� Notably, OLB candidates are absent from this list; Robinson is a Foote/Fiala type at ILB (though even slower), as is Burnette, and Rumishek can be timed with a sundial.� Turning to the O-side suspects:

Position	Player	Height	Weight	Remarks
WR	Leonard Scott	5-10	191	#61 of 122 WR listed at PFW, RS noted.
WR	Phil Braxton	6-3	190	# 106 of 122 WR listed at PFW.
WR	Jason Armstead	5-9	156	Not shown in PFW�s list of� (122) WR.
WR	Jeremy Conley	6-1	211	Not shown in PFW�s list of� (122) WR.
WR	Brian Robinson	6-3	208	Not shown in PFW�s list of� (122) WR.
TE	Casey Poppinga	6-4	255	35^th among (44) TE/H-backs listed by PFW.�
RB	Dante Brown	6001	213	48^th among (50) RB listed at PFW, can catch the ball.
OT	Jack Fadule	6-5	316	Not shown in PFW�s list of (70) OT.
OG	Deon White	6-1	333	Not shown in PFW�s list of (53) OG.
OC	Jimond Pugh	6-2	311	Not shown in PFW�s list of (19) OC.

Leonard Scott has blazing speed but may or may not be a Steeler type.� Dante Brown has an outside shot to supplant McCray, as Fadule may beat out Burr but there is little possibility that either will be with the big club.� The rest figure to get drilled in camp, and that�s about it.

The Steelers have brought in a kicker, Jonathan Ruffin and a punter, Mike Hayes.� Ruffin was listed as #2 of (15) at PFW; this prospect is said to be technically proficient and very cool under pressure kicking FG; however, his KO depth is at issue.� Sounds like Josh Reed, an inexpensive and proven commodity.� Hayes is big but since he wasn�t listed among (30) punters shown at PFW, is not likely to be the reincarnation of Ray Guy.

Most likely to make it:

David Upchurch:� Team leader at WVU, smart and strong, nimble enough to drop off the line in coverage occasionally.� As a 3-4 DE, could create an opportunity to move Clancy with KVO acting as 1^st backup at NT.

Roy Attieh:� Will probably be tried at NT; could bump Hoke.

Rashad Faison:� 9^th DB and ST player.� Really doesn�t have a position; is variously listed as a CB (4.55 40 says not) or SS (195# says not).�

Leonard Scott:� Runs a 4.27 per PFW, KR at Tennessee; could be a 5^th WR but has been described as a trackman in pads.

Dante Brown:� Decent size, adequate speed (4.55).� Can catch the ball; however, cannot block at all and, for whatever reason, seems to have gone backward in his senior season.� Has a fair chance to make the practice squad.

Draft Theory, re-visited:

In early February, as part of A Brief History of Draft Theory and Practice, we tested the proposition that, in general, it is better to trade down than to trade up in the draft since, in general, there is a high degree of uncertainty attached to any prospect.� Two mock drafts, versions 1 & 2, imagined the Steelers moving downward from 1.27 towards Sammy Davis�s (then) expected value, while acquiring some additional mid-round selections�� Later, in Draft 2003, Strategy I offered that this trade was no longer possible, that Davis would not be available in round 2, nor, for that matter, would LJ or Andre Woolfolk.� Indeed, that provided correct; LJ went 1.27, Woolfolk 1.28 and Davis 1.30.� Here, we�ll consider a different trade; in this case, rather than trading towards value at CB, the FO drops towards the 2^nd SS.� Figure some (6-10) spots with, say, mid-round 4^th and 6^th picks as compensation.� Please note, this is not intended as a rebuke towards the Steelers� move up; rather, this exercise floats a theory and, since the players listed below are proposed with no (even unintended) benefit of hindsight, should provide a stiffer test than that previous.

2a:� SS Ken Hamlin: A monster hitter with a TE-worthy frame.

2b:� DE Alonzo Jackson:� Not really my personal pick but evidently fit the second ranking need as identified by the FO.

3^rd:� CB Dennis Weathersby:� Size, speed, smarts; near death experience could sharpen focus.�

4a:� RB Lee Suggs:� Pinner would have been my guy but he went out at 4.99.�� Suggs has a lot of character; since he will redshirt 2003 due to shoulder surgery, could be described as the Steelers� Willis McGahee.

4b:� CB Ivan Taylor:� Wasn�t on my board but we�ll accept the benefit of the Steelers� research dollar.� Does fit the small school, big upside paradigm offered here previously.

5^th:� QB Brian St. Pierre:� Had him mocked, will stick.

6a:� WR Arnaz Battle:� A football player with a Hines Ward-like work ethic.

6b:� OLB Tully Banta-Cain:� Have no idea why he fell into the 7^th but I�d take him here.

7^th: SS Jeremy Shabazz:� Another big hitter.

Trade-down summary:� (4) DB drafted with 5-6 DB returning (Scott, DW, DT, Logan, Hope and maybe Chidi) makes (9-10) and that is not unprecedented.� Two package rush prospects, of those TBC is a LB only; O-side serviced at RB, WR and QB.�� This projection prioritizes SS and package rusher; swapping Polamalu for Hamlin, �yields� Weathersby, Suggs, Battle and Banta-Cain.� Of course, it is not obvious that any such deal was available.

Following closely after the Steelers last weekend, the Titans went the BPA route to harvest Woolfolk, WR Tyrone Calico, RB Chris Brown and Outland Trophy winner, DT Rien Long.� Now, there are questions attached to all these players: Woolfolk and Calico are very raw; Brown may be one-dimensional and Long may be too stiff and play too high.� Still, the wisdom we�ve received from innumerable draft gurus does suggest that the Titans snagged, at worst, (4) 2^nd round values, and may have done better than that.� Had the Steelers stuck @ 1.27, then, on a BPA basis, these players do present:

1.27:�� RB Larry Johnson:� LJ has franchise potential; impressed with his want-to earlier when appearing mainly as an a ST player in his sophomore season

2.59:�� DE Kenny Peterson:� One year wonder; was just a guy as a junior but gained +20# pounds over the summer and came on strong in his senior season.� This rise culminated with a dominant performance against Miami in the title showdown; however, it is worth noting that team had exactly (0) O-linemen drafted.� Peterson�s stock fell last winter as he was DNP at the Combine and then unable to finish either on-campus workout; you�ve got to wonder whether his body is breaking down under whatever strain may have been imposed from whatever fueled his remarkable transformation of a year ago.� Still, he was a considered a late 1^st value and, of all players on the board, is the best fit as a 3-4 RDE (replacing the team�s elder, KVO); figures to be useful immediately as an inside package rusher.� Note:� A BAP based projection would have had SS here; however, without exception, every 1^st day worthy, big frame SS candidate was off the board by 2.59.� Those players included: Asomugha, Hamlin and Scott.�

3.92:�� CB Dennis Weathersby:� At one time, I had this prospect as DND believing that the lack of strength he demonstrated at the Combine suggested that this player would not work at the weaker aspects of his game.� That�s a serious flaw, IMO; however, while he (obviously) moved down after being shot, that near death experience could well be a wake-up call.�� Note:� In this projection, the PS is screwed at SS in the 2^nd but get a gift CB in the 3^rd.

4.125: CB Ivan Taylor:� Might not be BPA at the spot but definitely ranking BMF; you�ve got to like a guy who knocked Tyrone Calico out of a game, especially since Calico was the most physically dominant WR in this class, at least this side of Andre Johnson.

5.163:� OT Tony Pashos:� Big Ten monster, 6-6. 336#.� Is said to have problems with speed rushers but, as I recall, he brutally stomped Andre Carter a few years ago.� This player projects at ROT but still might have given the Steelers some OT options as Marvel and Nkwenti head towards UFA and RFA status respectively.�

6.200: OLB Tully Banta-Cain:� Mystery fall despite good productivity and Porter-like measurables.

7.243: SS Jeremy Shabazz:� At worst, an ST player but (probably) at best an ST player.�

BPA summary:� This mode may have provided some quality candidates to replace the Steelers� Contract 3 types down the road; however, it absolutely failed to address the 2002 edition�s primary deficiencies, SS and package rushers.� That is, drafting BPA in the 2003 may have given the FO their best chance to strengthen their 2004 roster but would have done little for their more immediate title prospects.�

But really�

It is now apparent that the Steeler FO has determined to ride on, for at least one more season, with a number of Contract 3 players (Washington, Gildon, KVO, Bettis, if not Breuner) remaining as fixtures.� Right or wrong, the execs believe the window is still open and, unable to make any big moves in the vet FA market, they had no option but to manage their draft on a need basis, drafting at those positions most obviously deficient.� Clearly, those must be on the D-side; after all, the offense rolled up (30) or more points in four of their final five opportunities while the defense gave (30) or more (8) times last year, including three of the opening four and each of the final three.�

Excluding the safety position, the base defense was very strong last season and, to the extent their cap issues allowed, the FO moved to shore up that position.� Polamalu will start from day one at SS and, IMO, regardless of recent pronouncements, the FS position is open to Logan, Hope and Alexander.� All things being equal, Logan should be the guy but that may not be so; microfracture knee surgery is no joke and eight months probably is not enough recovery time.� Hope might be next in line but IMO he�s a better fit at SS; with Polamalu on-board, his best shot now may be as a swing, #3 package type.� That leaves Alexander or maybe the slightly-more-elderly-but-still-more-productive Kwame Lassiter.� Regardless, Polamalu does figure to upgrade the overall performance of the base secondary and that�s all good.

Of course, the larger issue in 2002 was the packages; I haven�t done the numbers here but it�s a good bet that, in many games where opponents gave up their run game, the Steeler dime was on as much, if not more, than their base.� Certainly, that set failed miserably from first to last, or front to back, as documented here commencing from mid-September 2002 with a trio of bye-week articles, coursing throughout the season (for example, see Week 11 in Review, mid-November, 2002) to close mid-winter with the Steeler packages reprising their September form.�

The 3^rd down numbers are available; those were compiled recently in Asking Tim Lewis.� Not to overwork the subject, suffice to say that it is absolutely clear that while the 2002 Steelers played effectively in 3^rd and short, their problems began at 3^rd and some mid-distance, and then got considerably worse.� Again, the safety position was a major problem but, as evidence by a league-wide disinterest in the Clark Haggans RFA tour, rush RDE was at issue too.�

Quite obviously, the FO saw it that way and moved accordingly.� Predicated on the assumptions noted below, here are the bones of a couple packages I think we�ll see this year:

Assumptions:

So long as the Steelers remain a base 3-4 team, they will be a blitzing team.� Since blitzing teams are generally Cover 3 teams, any package must include that component.

Porter and Bell function best off the LOS; therefore neither are candidates as rush DE.� However, both should remain on the field in every situation.

Right or wrong, Jason Gildon will play.�

Predicated on that:

Nickel:

Cover 3 trio:� Scott, Washington, starting FS (Logan/Hope/Alexander/Lassiter).
Four under:� Polamalu, Porter, Bell and Townsend.�
Four down:� Jackson, two interior DT as 2002 (Smith, Hampton, KVO, Bailey) and Gildon.

Dime:

Cover 3 trio:� As above.
Five under:� Polamalu, Porter, Bell, Townsend and #3 safety.
Three down:� Jackson, Smith or KVO on the nose and Gildon.� (Wildcard: Keisel).

The three down dime is modeled on Tampa Bay�s scheme where Rice, McFarland and Sapp line up right to left.� IMO, that is ideal to counter the empty set attacks that devastated the PS last season.� However, while this group figures to be strong on the nose, it is not evident that they have the personnel at DE.� Certainly they did not in 2002; that is why Jackson was drafted @ 2.59.� Keisel may develop but, as constituted, the blitz options Porter, Bell and Polamalu provide must cover up deficiencies at DE, and probably FS.

That is all.

�

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