Draft 2003, QB and RB:
The Reimersma signing so clearly signals the end of the Mark Breuner Era here that even our local pundits have perceived that, however dimly.� The Fordham signing brings experience to the OT position; that attribute, more than talent, was previously lacking.� While it is true that OT talent and experience now exist in separate packages, Nkwenti and Fordham respectively, that dilemma is not, and was not, resolvable through the draft.� Dealing with OT and TE in FA, the FO may have reserved their few prime picks for the D-side and, IMO, that�s all good.
However, a decent respect for the traditional BPA mode does compel some examination of the O-side need areas remaining.� Those are, in no order, QB and RB; of those, a power RB is of far more immediate consequence.� Preferably, the Steelers may lock onto a franchise type, a back who can run inside and out, catch the ball and, in the late going, grind the rock as the PS has been unable to do since Bettis went down in Game 11, 2001.� Failing landing the franchise, the need for a reliable grinder does remain; the Bus has done little in the past (21) regular season and (4) playoff games and, off his record, Fu is just a stiff breeze from crumpling anytime.� On paper, the Steelers have got it like that at RB but, in fact, they�ve got no reliable plow and their projected #1, Zereoue, exists midway in the vast landscape containing such tiny RB as are found in the family Faulk, Marshal and Kevin.��
RB is one of a few positions where a draftee could come in and contribute immediately.� In fact, first and second year players like LT and Clinton Portis went immediately to the top of the rush charts though, given the frequency of high speed, high impact collisions RB may expect, their career arc can turn sharply downward at any point.� Regardless, we might expect some coveted prospect to move in immediately but, if dependability is the key and, if that attribute might be measured by an absence of injury (and fumbles), then the class of 2003 has little to offer.� Ignoring Zereoue wannabes like Onterrio Smith, Ernest Graham and Quentin Griffith and leaving their college stats and workout measurables (you can grub for them on your own), consider the power/franchise prospect injury litany below:
- Justin Fargas:� Horrendous leg injury three seasons ago; missed several games early in 2002 with hamstring ailments.� Came on late for the Trojans but has never played a full season.
- Musa Smith:� Broke foot in spring drills 2001, recovered but had hip and groin problems that year; played 2002 with a broken thumb.
- Lee Suggs:� Blew ACL in 2001; came back in 2002 to function effectively in a rotation at Virginia Tech but has never been �the guy.�
- Willis McGahee:� Blew ACL, PCL and MCL in championship tilt versus OSU; is said to be rehabbing well but is unlikely to be ready in 2003.� If he had returned to Miami, would have been a backup to Frank Gore.
- Chris Brown:� Missed two games in 2002 with a bruised sternum, played effectively thereafter as in 2001 but, then again, several Buffalo backs had success behind that vast O-line.� Fumbles, doesn�t pass protect and wasn�t called on to catch the ball.
- Artose Pinner:� Broke leg at Senior Bowl.
- Cecil Sapp:� Benign tumor removed from heel in 2001, missed that season but played well in 2002.�
- Brandon Toefield: Blew ACL in 2001, broke forearm in 2002.
- Dewayne Hicks:� Chronic hamstring and knee problems, missed Combine due to MCL surgery.
Larry Johnson is the only primetime back available who has had little to no history of injury.� Of the others, well, if dependability were key then you�d probably stay away from players who have been constantly nicked up; those include: Musa Smith, Fargas, Brown, Toefield and Hicks.� �Players like Suggs, McGahee, Pinner and Sapp, who�ve taken one heavy shot but otherwise have shown up, may remain in the mix.� �Of those, Suggs may be 2.59 worthy, Pinner or McGahee could constitute value at 3.92 while Sapp could figure in the 4th or 5th� �(along with FB like Mughelli, Pinnock Askew or Griffith).� Larry Johnson, IMO, leads the BPA Derby versus any D-back likely to be on the board at 1.27; whether or not LJ will be available when the Steelers draft is, more or less, in the hands of the New England Patriots.� �
I�d grab LJ at 1.27 but, with two exceptions, I�d let the QB slide on.� Early in the mock season, but following the Rise of Boller, the conventional wisdom had it that (3) QB would be taken in the Top Ten.� That certainly could happen; only Detroit, Houston and Minnesota have secured their franchise at that position.� In contrast, Cin-City, Chicago, Arizona and Carolina have vet stopgaps on-board, Dallas and the Ravens have young, unproven players at the position and Jacksonville still must be struggling for the cap relief that releasing Mark Brunell would afford.� That�s seven to make three, suggesting the likelihood that all big three QB will be out early.� However, teams at the top of the draft have additional issues; that fact, combined with the presence of 2nd round worthy QB, may squeeze out at least one of the top three.� This logic obtained in my Mock Draft version 2.0 of 17 March anyway; since then, CNNSI has followed suite (March 20), as has draftbook.com (23 March).� �If in fact, one of the top three should fall, remember you read it here first (or could have done a week ago); if not, well, forget about it.�
The Jets, Pats, Saints and Raiders each have dual 1st round picks; excluding the Raiders, who are just too low down into move to the top ten, those three teams hold the key.� If the Saints move up for a lockdown CB, or the Pats for a prime time DT stuffer, or the Jets for a prime time WR, then, say, the Bengals, Bears, Boys, Cards, Jags or Ravens might try a two for one, selecting an immediate starter at one position and an eventual franchise QB too.�
Chris Mortenson, of ESPN, has reviewed the top six; check it out.� To summarize those remarks, using my own order of preference at the position:
- Kyle Boller:� Superb athlete who has LB size and speed. Struggled for years at Cal but responded immediately to a new, competent O-coordinator.� Has the tools and appears to be coachable.
- Byron Leftwich:� Has Bledsoe tools and McNair toughness; exceptional leader.� On the downside, lacks escape capability and so gets beat up in the pocket.
- Carson Palmer:� Robo-QB; took two years to respond to Norm Chow.� The Vinnie Testaverde of the New Millennium.
- Dave Ragone:� Good tools but needs to get in shape; on the plus side, exhibited good toughness last season and didn�t whine.
- Chris Simms:� Has all the tools and all the bloodline, had protection from Leonard Davis and Mike Williams (two O-line picked #2 and #4 overall in 2001 and 2002 respectively, had WR Roy Williams (as good a WR prospect as Charles Rogers or Andre Johnson), had (0) TD and (14) INT against Top Ten foes.� I�d pass but consider him as an RFA in a few years.
- Rex Grossman:� Short, fat and slow; weak-armed system QB who flopped about after Spurrier left Florida.� DND.
I�d take Boller, Leftwich or LJ over any D-back likely to be available at 1.27; of those, LJ will be last off the board.� As for other players in whom the FO is rumored to be interested: with Reimersma and Tuman on-board, Jason Witten won�t be coming here, �I remain convinced that Sammy Davis will be the 3rd best pro performer at CB in this year�s class and, if Mike Doss is the Steelers� pick at 1.27, they�ll have replicated the inanity last incarnated here in selecting Troy Edwards over Jevon Kearse.� �