2006 Draft, Small Board of Big Value:��
Rumor roils as Draft Weekend looms; the latest being that some unprecedented number of DB will be taken in R1.� As we�ve seen, recent first frame hauls at those spots (S and CB combined) have maxed out at (6).�� Not this year say the wise guys, who also claim that as many as (5) RB may be taken in that opening frame.� If it plays like that, well, that�ll the biggest haul since 2000 when: Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander and the great Trung Candidate checked through.�����
LB
figures as another big play, or so it�s said, and there you have it.� Over the years, DB, LB and even RB have been
R2 values; their over-representation in this opening frame suggests that this
2006 class is, mainly, a R2 crop.� While
this set does boast some elite prospects, especially in the Front 7, once past
the top 12 overall (give or take), the rest are, mainly, R1 suspects.� Not bad players, R2 prospects are rarely bad
players.� It�s just that most of those
projected from, say 1.20 thru, say, 2.40 are, mainly, interchangeable.� Put it this way: Bobby Carpenter may become
a fine pro but he�s not going to be Julian Peterson (3rd LB: 1.16,
2000) or even Keith Bullock (5th LB: 1.30, 2000).�����
Off
the Steelers� list of invitees, DB (especially S) and RB are two primary
targets.� A third is WR, and, it is
worth noting a reciprocal relationship exists between the dearth of talent at
the top of the WR set and that high R1 haul projected for each of the other
three spots.� See:�
Table
1: 2004 year of the R1 WR v. 2006 projections.�
|
Taken
R1 2004 |
Projected
R1 2006 |
Remarks |
WR |
7 |
2 |
Larry
Fitzgerald has delivered and so has Lee Evans, to a lesser extent.� Michael Clayton had a good rook season but
then disappeared.� The other four have
done little.� |
LB |
2 |
4 |
Vilma
and DJ Williams compare with Sims, Greenway and Carpenter, if not Hawk.� |
DB |
4 |
7-8 |
8
is probably the maximum; it is doubtful that either Youboty or Kelly Jennings
will be taken R1 |
RB |
3 |
4 |
Chris
Perry was over-drafted R1; compare and contrast with the R1 suspects this
year.� |
Totals
|
16 |
17-18 |
These
totals get closer, once we balance those 4 QB drafted R1 in 2004 against 3
projected this time.� |
That�s
not all bad.� If R1 WR has been a poor
value, why draft a WR R1?� Then too, if
the money boyz in League HQ have done everything possible to hobble defenders,
then elite athleticism may no longer be a pre-requisite at the receiver
positions.� R2 value?� Well, if all the prospects available at 1.32
figure as (merely) R2-worthy, remember that, until 2002, the 32nd
pick did come sometime in R2.� For
instance 1989, when Carnell Lake was drafted 2.34, the 6th pick in
that frame.� Profiling the positions tabulated
above, per those take rates studied previously:�
- It figures that the WR
haul will start slow but pick up in R2.�
While that take may lag a round through Day 1, by the close of R5,
it will be at par.� Possession WRs
figure to persist as a mid round value; quality among their analogue,
receiving TE, will lead in the early going, probably through 2.64, but may
tap out near the end of Day 1.�
It�ll be all done by the PS R4 comp pick.����
- The DB takes figure to
jump out but fall back fast, evening out by the close of R2, and remaining
at par thru Day 1.� However, there
will be some solid value through R4.�
Quality ST/DB figure throughout Sunday�s rounds, especially
including those WR with D-side experience, like Domenik Hixon and Ethan
Kilmer.���
- RB will jump out too:
even if five are taken in R1, by the close of Day 1, that set will be at
par, with no more than 8-9 off the board.�
- LB:� As was true in 2000, LB will run out in
R1.�� As was true then too, the Day
1 pool will dry up.� On the plus
side, there will be some good deep R3/R4 prospects, and some outstanding
developmental types available well into R6, (if not through to the PS
spot, 6.201).���
The
PS FO sees need at: DB, receiver and RB, as do most fans.� There is a divergence of opinion at DE.� Many prognosticators have projected the
Steelers taking a DE Day 1 but, if their invitee is list is a useful guide, the
FO sees no such need.� It is worth
noting that both Colbert and Cowher had some praise for 2005 R7 selection Shaun
Nua, as tallied at their pre-draft presser.�
That�s good news, I guess, but two items are worth noting:��
- Nua will be 25 in May;
that is a bit overage, as developmental prospects go.�
- Nua isn�t at issue;
even imagining he projects as a rotation DE, the fact remains that Rodney
Bailey cannot play the run and Travis Kirschke cannot stay healthy.� If Nua figures in the Keisel mode, more
or less, then the 2006 Steelers� have just one reliable run down DE, aging
Aaron Smith.�
3-4
DE are found in both the DE and DT prospect pools.� 2006 DE talent runs to par, but not so for DT.� It figures that about (10) DE will be
drafted Day 1, including the rapidly rising Jason Hatcher (per Gosselin: #9
among DE and #14 among all D-linemen).�
Aside from Mario Williams, Hatcher and Julian Jenkins are it for 3-4 DE,
within the DE prospect pool.� Some DT
fit the bill too including: Rodrique Wright, Barry Cofield and, maybe Dusty
Dvoracek.� However, none are found on
Gosselin�s 100; in fact, with Claude Wroten�s prospects going up in smoke, that
list includes only (6) DT.� If that
proves out, it will be a Day 1 low for the position, a round behind, just as
may be expected at WR.�
On
the plus side, this does suggest considerable R4A value at both spots, DE and
WR.� The same area will yield LB (as
found among both DE and OLB prospects), safeties and possession WR.� Those are your mid-round value clusters:
safety (including a couple CB conversions), complementary WR, 3-4 DE and 3-4
OLB.���
Rightside
O-line maulers too, but nonesuch are found on the PS invitee list.� The top O-linemen invited in, Daryn Colledge
and Charles Spencer are R2 leftside swingmen.�
As noted, this augurs poorly for Trai Essex.� At that PC where Nua drew his praise, so too did Chris Kemoeatu.� However, the headmen, C&C, were
(conspicuously?) silent on Essex, and Rian Wallace.��
If
the Steelers are looking for leftside prospects, they need look no farther than
R1.� It figures that Davin Joseph and
Eric Winston will be on the board at 1.32.�
Joseph is the best OG in this class; he has some versatility too, having
played RG, LG and LT.� Winston projects
at LT where, circa 2003, he looked like a top 10 pick.� Marcus McNeill may be there too, but he�s a
medical question mark.� Of course, the
same may said of Jason Allen, who, like Kendrell Bell, seems to be entering the
pro ranks with arthritic shoulders.�
Then
there�s LenDale White, the people�s choice and, if both Jim Wexall and John
Clayton are correct, choice of the PS FO too.�
White is no mystery medically (that hamstring will heal) but there must
be questions surrounding his infamous pre-title bloat, not to mention the
weight he put on between the Combine and his Pro Day.� Consequently, there�s no known 40 time attached to LenDale or, more
indicative for RB, no time at 10.�
It
is true that the PS drafted Heath Miller last year, though he hadn�t run at
Indy either, or on his Pro Day.�
However, the PS, like all teams, did have Junior Day results for Miller.� Not so for Lendale, who didn�t run last
year, and didn�t run this.� White has
the production, no doubt; he has been durable, no doubt, but, well, the same
may have been once said of Buckeye Bob Ferguson (PS, class of 1962).�� In short, this quandary remains: did White
make the Trojans or did the Trojans make White?
We�ll
see.� If White is on the board at 32,
there is little doubt that the PS will take him.� In that case, they do figure to scramble for S in R2, just as was
mocked here last week.� We know this
because simultaneously with White�s descent (following his Pro Day debacle),
the FO expanded their S search to include R2B/C prospects such as Danieal
Manning and Ko Simpson.� At that time,
Darnell Bing came in too, but he�s R3B at best, DND in the early going.� Anyway, the earlier DB candidates were:
Donte Whitner, Jason Allen and Antonio Cromartie.� All are R1 guys now and, White or no-White, all are (likely) out
of reach.� So:
Table 2:� Parsing the PS invitee list:�
|
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
R4 |
R5-6 |
R7-UDFA |
RB |
L.
Maroney L.
White J.
Addai |
|
|
|
|
|
DB |
D.
Whitner, S J.
Allen, CB/S |
D.
Bullocks, S K.
Simpson, S |
D.
Bing, S J.
Alston, S |
|
J.
Lay, CB |
|
WR |
C.
Jackson |
D.
Williams |
|
|
J.
Webb |
|
O-line |
N.
Mangold |
D.
Colledge C.
Spencer |
|
W.
Colon |
|
|
LB |
M.
Lawson, OLB B.
Carpenter, SILB |
|
|
E.
Henderson,
OLB |
B.
Hawkins, OLB |
Joey
Lopes, LB/LS John
Busing, WILB |
Return
talent |
A.
Cromartie,
DB |
M.
Drew, RB D.
Manning, DB |
B.
Williams, WR Willie
Reid, WR |
J.
Bloom, WR W.
Blackmon, DB L.
Washington, RB |
TJ
Rushing,
CB D.
Hixon, WR |
|
Other
|
|
|
B.
Oshinowo, NT |
|
D.
Fells, TE |
T.
Sandidge, DT E.
Kilmer,
KC |
Total
|
10 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
- As always, prospect
name represents a high KEI guy.�
Since we�ve been over it with most of these prospects, the
following doesn�t describe their ability so much as purport their
availability.�
- Of (10) R1 prospects
listed, (3), at most, figure to reach 1.32.� Those are: one of the three RB, Carpenter and either Allen
or Jackson.� The reciprocity noted
earlier between WR and DB applies here.�
Allen is ~ the 7th DB, if (7) are taken, one of the top
two WR may reach 32.�
- Of (7) R2 prospects
listed, (3), at most figure to reach 2.64.� Those are: Williams, Spencer and Manning.� IMO, Williams is DND. Like Jason Allen,
Spencer carries a medical risk.�
Reportedly, reconstructive surgery on his left shoulder has limited
his practice time in each of the past two campaigns.�
- Of (5) R3 prospects
listed, (2) figure to be there.� If
the Steelers are looking for a big S, Alston does fit the bill.� Reid has made a late run up the boards,
closing at #100 on Gosselin�s list.�
As #6 DT, Oshinowo doesn�t figure to be there, although his play
grade does warrant that projection.�
Ok
then.�
The
SBBV is predicated on value cluster, KEI and a need assessment that stretches
beyond replacement out to 2007 when, as noted in our Roster Survey, the
Front 7 figures to turn over.�
Therefore, it doesn�t look much like the PS FO board.� Fine.�
Taking each round in turn:
- R1, harvest the
fall:� waiting, the Steelers have
gained both Roethlisberger and Miller.�
They can do so again; however, the leading candidates, Allen or
White, aren�t the only guys.�
Generally, this is the year of the coverage safety (Huff, Whitner
and, maybe, Allen) or coverage CB with safety size (Williams and
Cromartie).� Of those, only Allen
figures to approach the PS slot.�
However, a pure coverage CB (Joseph, Hill and Marshall) may reach;
any figure as R1 value.� The PS
could solve their immediate FS problem, in some sets, by drafting a CB R1,
with McFadden moving into a sky slot.�
Then too, there�s that downstream snag at the spot: Ike�s
extension.� On the flip side, the
WR/DB reciprocity noted previously suggests that, if (8) DBs are selected,
then a top WR will fall.�� In sum:
stay the course: DB or WR R1.�
Apropos of nuthin�, the wildcard is not RB; it is O-line, with
Joseph or Winston.��
- R2: traditionally, a
value at TE.� A zone breaker ala
Klopfenstein figures to be a better get than any WR likely to be
available.� It�s doubtful a quality
DB will be there, although Manning would quality.� However, S is a deep R3 value with Jon
Alston, Roman Harper and Anthony Smith likely to be available.��
- R3/4:� aside from those R3 safeties noted
above, value cluster figures at LB (to include DE and OLB prospects).� 3-4 DE figure too: (DE and DT
prospects).� Presently, the
Steelers have four picks in this range; they should come away with quality
at both DE and OLB.� Along with DE,
S and OLB, possession WR and TE/H-backs look to be R4 value.�� Depending on how it�s running, these
spots (and prospects noted below) may swap around.� Regardless, if the PS FO plays it
right, they could come away with (4) Day 1 values in this section.� There�s your draft.� .
- R5/7: rich in special
teams smalls to include athletic LB, package S and return WR that also
feature some coverage skills.� IOL
is a traditional value in this area, and there does figure to be some prospects.� Again, depending on how it�s running,
those IOL and ST smalls tabulated below may swap around some.� Kilmer, Wusu and Morris are most likely
to move up; Hixon most likely to move down.� TE is usually a value; however, this class looks good at the
top but not the bottom.�
Table
3:� SBBV
|
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
R4 |
R5-6 |
R7-UDFA |
Value
cluster |
CB |
TE |
LB Safety |
DE WR |
|
O-line |
Prospects
in cluster |
Richard
Marshall Tye
Hill |
J. KlopfensteinA.
Fasano |
Gocong,
OLB Anderson,
OLB Wilkinson, OLB |
Move
for: Hatcher,
Cofield or WrightR4
comp: Jenkins |
Hamilton,
FS TJ
Rushing,
CB D.
Hixon, WR/KR A.
Bethea, DB C.
Finnegan, DB/KR |
C.
Morris,
OC Mark
LeVoir, OT T.
Palmer, OG C.
Myrick,
IOL Brad
Butler, OT D.
Penn, OT |
Jon Alston Roman
Harper Anthony
Smith |
Hass,
Avant Baskett,
Austin Bloom,
Reid (KR/PR) |
|||||
Others
|
Holmes,
WR Jackson,
WR Carpenter,
SILB Move backAllen
(m) Maroney
(m) Ryans, WILB Winston,
LT Joseph,
IOL |
G.
Jennings, WR D.
Bullocks, S D.
Manning, DB C.
Spencer, OL |
Pittman,
NCB Scheffler,
TE Thomas,
TE |
Ninkovich,
OLB Andre
Hall, RB Zemaitis,
DB Mills,
FB Cook,
OL Whimper,
OT McQuistan,
OT E.
Smith, S |
Dvoracek, DE LaCasse, OLB Parham, SILB Guillory,
LB Robinson,
RB J.
Martin, OT C.
Kuper, IOL |
Bouknight,
WR J.
Madsen, WR AJ
Harris,
RB Ahmad
Hall, FB John
Chick,
OLB Kilmer, KC/WR Dixon, LB Timi
Wusu, LB |