What's Wrong with Willie?......by Steel Package

What's Wrong  With Willie       By SteelPackage

 

 

No subject is more discussed or polarizing than the Pittsburgh Steelers running game and Willie Parker.  The only other issue approaching this is the �Ben�s Just a Game Manager� theory and I think we can all collectively put that one to bed.  Willie Parker has his admirers and detractors and they are very clear in their beliefs.  There is usually no middle ground on this subject.

 

However, I think we can all agree the Steelers are struggling on the ground.  Members of the offensive line tried to take the blame for Parker�s recent lack of production, but Parker took his share as well.  �It�s all of us� Parker said.  �We just haven�t been getting the job done.  We�re still 3^rd in the league in rushing, but there�s just so much out there -- so much.  We�ve just got to get it together and I think it�s going to be a great week to do that.  Everybody�s going to be watching the game.�

 

Of course what Parker is talking about is possible redemption during this week�s New England game but the problems have been running deep for awhile now. Can Pittsburgh right the ship in time to be able to rely on the running game come playoff time?

 

Let�s see if we can determine the �root cause� to Willie�s loss in production.

 

 

Background:

 

Parker has seen his rushing drop to a 3.0 yard average over the last 5 games and except for Baltimore, most of the opposition has not been particularly stellar against the run. 

 

His game averages are as follows:

 

 

Opponent	Game	Parker
		1st half		Game Total
		carries	yds	carries	yds
Cle	Game 1	11	43	27	109
Buf	Game 2	13	70	23	126
SF	Game 3	11	79	24	133
Ari	Game 4	9	8	19	37
Sea	Game 5	10	17	28	102
Bye	Game 6
Den	Game 7	10	48	21	93
Cin	Game 8	12	79	22	126
Bal	Game 9	16	27	23	42
Cle	Game 10	11	74	25	105
Jets	Game 11	8	23	21	52
Mia	Game 12	11	42	24	81
Cin	Game 13	10	29	28	87
	Totals	132	539	285	1093

 

 

Parker is currently on pace to rush the ball 380 times this season, easily the most of his career.  It�s a trend that�s been continuing since assuming the starting role in 2005 and is not necessarily a good thing. (IMO)

 

For purposes of this analysis Parker will be compared to a baseline average of 4 other backs, (Tomlinson, McGahee, Westbrook and Addai), in several key statistical areas to determine trends as well as making some broad recommendations at the end.

 

 

Workload:

 

Willie Parkers carries have increased each year since becoming a starter and now represents 70% of the rushing total.  While Parkers total yards are impressive his average has dropped every year to his current lackluster 3.8 YPC.

 

 

Year	Team	G	Att	Team %	Yds	Avg	TD	Fum
2005	PIT	15	255	46	1202	4.7	4	4
2006	PIT	16	337	72	1494	4.4	13	6
07 Proj	PIT	16	380	70	1457	3.8	3	5

 

 

The �stud� running back is not a new concept in the NFL as most successful teams rely on a primary ball carrier.  However, it has also been proven that exceeding certain thresholds, (the curse of 370), has detrimental effects on a backs ability to remain effective and injury free in the future. 

 

Witness both Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson as the latest example of players who are struggling through injury and lack of performance due to being run into the ground last year.

 

We�ll now break Willie�s carries down further and compare him to the Baseline: (average of the 4)

 

 

Splits	Parker		Baseline
	Carries	Avg	Carries	Avg
1st Q	58	3.6	69	4.1
2nd Q	74	4.5	55	4.9
3rd Q	82	3.9	58	4.7
4th Q	70	3.3	48	3.8
1st Down	171	4	131	4.4
2nd Down	108	3.3	80	3.9
3rd Down	6	7.7	19	5.5
carries 1-10	120	4.1	116	4.3
carries 11-20	119	3.9	97	4.4
carries 21-30	46	2.9	18	4.9

 

                                    Notes: A successful NFL run is 4.0 yards

           Problem areas are highlighted in red

 

As you examine the table certain things become apparent.  Willie Parker is used much more heavily as the game progresses while the Baseline shows just the opposite.  Willie�s average per down, while lower when compared to the baseline, remains acceptable except when looking at his 2^nd down carries.  While it�s normal for 2^nd down carries to be below the NFL average due to distance and game situations his 3.3 YPC is cause for concern.   More to come on this later.

 

More troubling is Parkers average literally drops of the charts after exceeding 20 carries but interestingly remains at the NFL average if you exclude them.  Note that this is not the case with the Baseline but it is against a much smaller sample size.

 

I think we can agree Parker is showing signs of wearing down due to his high number of carries, many of them being in garbage time late in the game.

 

Lets move on.

 

Schemes:

 

I�ll now chart carries against offensive formations and running schemes:

 

 

Formations & Direction	Parker			Baseline
	Carries	%	Avg	Carries	%	Avg
0-1 TE	124	44	4.0	135	66	5.4
2+ TE	161	56	3.7	71	34	3.9
0-2 WR	211	74	3.7	147	63	4.3
3+ WR	74	26	4.3	87	37	4.5
Mid-Guard	66	23	2.8	73	33	3.9
Tackle	183	64	3.8	89	39	4.8
End	36	13	6.0	64	28	4.7

                      

            Note:  Problem areas in red and strengths in blue

 

 

Again, the numbers indicate Willie is a much more effective back when running to the outside and from spread formations, see items highlighted in blue.  I would actually consider him an elite runner when used in this fashion.  However, Bruce Arians play calling isn�t taking advantage of this ability as can be seen by the number of plays run between the tackles and from 2 TE sets.   Also note the lack of runs to outside.

 

The multiple TE sets have been an abject failure in the run game yet 56% of all running plays are executed from this formation.  I just don�t get it.  Note in particular the wretched 2.8 YPC up the middle vs. Baseline of 3.9 YPC.  Mahan and Simmons failure to generate any movement against the D-Line take a lot of credit for this one. 

 

If Arians just approached league averages in play calling this would benefit Parker and the running game greatly.

 

 

Other Factors:

 

Finally we�ll look at some other factors affecting Parkers performance.

 

 

Offensive Line Adjusted Line Yardage as measured by FootballOutsiders

 

Rank	TEAM	Adj. Line	RB	Power	Power	10+	10+	Stuffed	Stuffed
		Yards	Yards	Success	Rank	Yards	Rank		Rank
3	IND	4.67	4.17	81%	2	9%	26	16%	1
5	PHI	4.59	4.61	77%	4	18%	13	22%	12
24	PIT	3.98	4.02	62%	21	20%	9	24%	18
25	BAL	3.94	4.05	63%	18	18%	12	23%	16
26	SD	3.87	4.37	62%	22	27%	2	30%	30

 

 Note: uses mathematic formulas to take all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line

 

Pittsburgh ranks 24^th in ALY and while only adequate at best, both McGahee and Tomlinson have had to run behind poor offensive lines themselves (as measured by FO�s).  The difference is they both are more effective inside runners than Parker and can make up for certain limitations on the line.

 

Next we�ll examine play selection.  There has been a lot of discussion regarding the dreaded R,R,P scenario being frequently called by Arians.  Is there any truth to this?

 

 

Team	Run Selection by Down
	1st Down	2nd Down	3rd Down
Pittsburgh	196/303 65%	130/236 55%	33/107 31%
San Diego	161/280 57%	103/228 45%	33/101 33%
Baltimore	167/310 54%	102/248 41%	22/134 16%

 

Note:  This chart shows the number of times the teams run the ball given total plays for that particular down as well as the run percentage.  

 

For this analysis I chose San Diego and Baltimore; both noted as running teams. 

 

The data shows Pittsburgh runs significantly more often on 1^st and 2^nd downs then either San Diego or Baltimore.  This certainly provides more opportunities for R,R,P and I think we can conclude that Pittsburgh does do this more often.  It�s this kind of predictable play selection that probably has something to do with Parkers lack of 2^nd down effectiveness as noted previously.

 

 

Summary:

 

I�ll leave it up to you to make your final judgments but from my view Willie Parker has always been Willie Parker.  The data says so.  There�s nothing really wRONg with Willie the runner per say but more with the framework (scheme, play selection, workload) from which he�s being asked to run.

 

Willie Parker is an electrifying open field runner with game breaking abilities that can now run between the tackles with an adequate offensive line.   Parker runs with more determination and desire inside but the Steelers O-line could now be considered poor in run blocking, especially up the middle. With Willie unable to manufacture yards after contact similar to a back like Willis McGahee, I would recommend the following to play to his strengths:

 

1.       Limit Parker to 20 carries per game.  Incorporate Davenport and Russell in the game to provide Parker an occasional �blow� as well as picking up the carries in garbage time.  Another option would be to turn some of his carries into receptions putting him out in space against DB�s vs. running it up the middle against a D-Lineman.  Less wear and tear on the body.

2.       Arians is too reliant on his �pet� TE formations that have proven ineffective in the running game.  He�s also not even average in calling formations employing the spread offense.  He needs to flip these percentages to maximize Parkers running opportunities against defenses in their base sets.

3.       Mix more passes into 1^st and 2^nd down play selection.  The Steelers appear to be too predictable in this area limiting Parkers overall effectiveness.

4.       Call more quick hitting plays and runs to the outside; has Arians ever heard of something called a sweep!!  FO�s has an outstanding article on this running play; recommend you take a look Bruce.

5.       Make use of a lead blocker.  Willie is more comfortable running with a fullback in front of him as he public ally stated in the preseason.  Its unfortunate Kreider is out for the year but going with Carey Davis instead of Spaeth in the run game is still a plus in my book.    

 

It goes without saying you need 2 capable backs on your roster and Parker was much more effective in 2005 with Bettis coming in for 9-10 plays per game to get the tough inside yards and first downs while still remaining an effective spot starter.   Every team needs to be able to run the ball between the tackles at times and Pittsburgh doesn�t currently have that back on their roster.  Parker unfortunately is the defacto recipient of these carries and along with the items mentioned previously are the reasons why he�s struggling mightily in 2007.  While Tomlin will not be able to address this during the remainder of the season he sure as hell better keep a promise he made during pre-season when he said you need two quality backs on your roster.  As for Parker he can only hope better late than never.