Draft - Identifying Needs (Def.)
By CK Stiller
Front 7
Aaron Smith, Clark Haggans, and Joey Porter are all entering the final year of their deals. That makes both DE and OLB a real possibility early in the draft. Of the three, though, I would expect Aaron Smith to see an extension. He was the most productive of these three last season, and is affordable. At the same time, his salary would spike 3 mil, which makes him the candidate most likely to be cut. Haggans was the least productive, and will most likely be allowed to walk.
Joey Porter is an interesting case. He is still the best LB on the team, without a doubt. Then, he will want far more money than his production has earned. He has already said he expects to be paid like a top five player at his position, and that simply won�t happen. The team gains little by cutting him. They would save money next year, but they are unlikely to jump at the opportunity of starting a rookie. His role as a leader on the team gives him extra value.
Porter�s futility last year was documented by Still Mill and myself. Joey Porter recorded just 7 sacks last season, of which none came against a team better than 6-10. A number of excuses were created for his poor play. Some argued that the culprit was new starting DE Brett Keisel, and the DL�s general inability to get to the QB. The notion that Porter was getting unfavorable match-ups, though, was shown to be false on this site. Porter lacks the ability to beat LT�s. It didn�t matter if that was a rookie, or a career back-up making his first start.
The Steelers rely on their LB�s to get a pass rush, just like other 3-4 teams. They have throughout the Cowher era. And Cowher�s defenses generally go where the pass rush takes them. When the OLB�s fail to get after QB�s, it isn�t surprising that a blitz-happy team struggles:
|
Year |
LB |
DL |
DB |
Total |
R-Rank |
P-Rank |
T-Rank |
|
1992 |
16 |
12 |
8 |
36 |
18 |
7 |
12 |
|
1993 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
7 |
43 |
3 |
16 |
3 |
|
1994 |
37.5 |
12.5 |
5 |
55 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
|
1995 |
26 |
14.5 |
1.5 |
42 |
2 |
7 |
2 |
|
1996 |
32 |
9 |
9 |
50 |
3 |
7 |
3 |
|
1997 |
23 |
7.5 |
13.5 |
44 |
1 |
21 |
5 |
|
*1998* |
21.5 |
14 |
3 |
38.5 |
13 |
18 |
10 |
|
*1999* |
20.5 |
8.5 |
10 |
39 |
26 |
3 |
10 |
|
*2000* |
26 |
5 |
7 |
38 |
12 |
8 |
7 |
|
2001 |
32 |
15 |
8 |
55 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
|
2002 |
28.5 |
16 |
5.5 |
50 |
1 |
23 |
7 |
|
*2003* |
17 |
13 |
5 |
35 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
|
2004 |
20.5 |
11 |
7.5 |
39 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
|
2005 |
28.5 |
9.5 |
9 |
47 |
3 |
16 |
4 |
|
*2006* |
22 |
12 |
5 |
39 |
3 |
20 |
9 |
|
Totals |
374.5 |
172 |
104 |
650.5 |
- |
- |
- |
|
Averages |
25 |
11.5 |
7 |
43.5 |
7 |
12 |
6 |
NOTES:
1. *�s indicate non-playoff seasons.
A few things:
The defensive line actually registered a slightly above average number of sacks last year. That, combined with the run defense would equate to a good season for the DE�s in my book.
The LB�s were below average in terms of getting after the QB.
The Steelers LB�s recorded below average sacks 8 times in the Cowher era.
Three of the four teams that did not make the playoffs had below average sack totals from the LB�s. The one stand-out was the 2000 squad, and they registered 26 (1 above the average).
Of the four others, two were in Cowher�s first seasons (no playoff wins). The other two were 97 and 04, oddly enough two of Cowher�s teams to reach the AFCC game. The 97 team, though, registered above average sack totals overall.
Nine Cowher teams have registered fewer than 43.5 sacks. All eight of the seasons LB�s had below average numbers were below average seasons for the team. 97, as noted, was the lone exception.
Only 5 of these teams had fewer sacks from their LB�s than the 06 squad.
There can be little question where the biggest hole on this team currently lies. The LB�s are the oldest members of the team (three of four starters older than 30 next year). The Steelers did not invest a day-1 pick into the unit since 03 when they took Alonzo Jackson. The team normally likes to take guys in the third round or later (Jackson was the exception), however they have both their starters entering the final year of their contract, and no clear-cut replacements on the bench. James Harrison is the only thing close, but age and limited ability make him little more than a stop-gap. An elite pass rusher is clearly a necessity in this draft. Few will argue with that assessment. However, anyone who expects that to come in the form of a 3-4 DE is deluding themselves. The Steelers will need to take 2-3 LB�s in this draft, which one would expect to be heavy defense after last season (seven of nine picks were on offense). One inside and one outside, and maybe another tweener.
As stated above, the possibility of grabbing a 3-4 DE does remain, though. What happens with Aaron Smith will determine this. DE is another position that Cowher traditionally drafted later. The scouts were apparently taken with Adam Carricker, though. Even if the team keeps Smith, there is a real lack of depth behind the two starters. Kirschke is grossly overpaid (2 mil next season) and offers little. He�s a liability in the run defense more than anything. A DE/DT seems likely at some point in this draft. The team may grab two, depending on their feelings towards Hoke. Bailey�s contract runs up. In all, there may be three new members on the DL by next season due to depth concerns as well as change in scheme.
Defensive Backs
The opinion here usually varies. Some see it as the team�s biggest weakness. It�s a belief commonly held in the media. The Steelers DB situation, though, has not been this good since the mid-90�s. Ike Taylor�s benching was the single worst decision Cowher made all season. It was completely indefensible. Taylor had done his job well outside of a handful of games. Following the Denver debacle, he had a poor streak. He struggled against the Saints the following weak, and gave up the team�s lone big play the week following that against the Browns (following Cowher�s advise, no less). His teammates saw this for what it was. Even the Pittsburgh media has
admitted he was Cowher's scapegoat.The team has invested heavily into the DB�s in recent years. McFadden was drafted in 05 in the second round. Colclough in the second the year before that (the team traded up to get him, no less). Polamalu and Taylor were both grabbed in 2003 (first and fourth rounders). Anthony Smith was grabbed in the third just last season. Taylor has already gotten paid, and Polamalu will most likely follow suit this off-season. McFadden is likely to get a promotion. Townsend, the real weakness last season, was just re-signed, and would make a fine nickel back.
The Steelers have young talent at all the starting spots, and guys like Townsend, Clark, and Carter to provide adequate depth. The only spot up for grabs? Well, that would be Colclough�s. However, he still has a year left, and is relatively cheap for the team. Why give up on an athletically gifted corner who will be fourth or third on the depth chart, and waste another high draft pick on the spot? Beyond that, Anthony Madison showed ability. He was a respectable UDFA pick-up who didn�t become a liability on the field.
I could potentially see the Steelers grabbing a mid-round corner, or maybe signing a lower-end FA. Unless the team has no confidence in one of those starters, and plans to cut ties soon, there is little need to invest a high draft pick. All of those players are signed for several more seasons.