Stillers-Ravens III Pregame Outlook

 * When the Ravens have the ball, they�ll drag along an offense that looked horrible in their must-win over Minnesota and barely mediocre in the win last week over Miami. The Ravens have some tools, but have struggled in 2001 to put the pieces together. The decision to allow RB Priest Holmes to depart as a UFA, combined with the preseason loss of Jamaal Lewis, caused the ball-control Ravens to fight an uphill battle in 2001 without two of their better ball-control players from their Super Bowl season.

The key matchup will be, as it was in the previous meeting, the Stiller defense against the Raven passing game. I don't expect the Ravens to get much production at all on the ground. The Stiller front 7 is too good, while the Ratbird rushing attack is too weak. Baltimore had some success last week against Miami, but this Stiller defense will give stiffer resistance than that half-hearted, swiss cheese Dolphin defense. If Baltimore can move the ball well in the air without the support of a good ground game, that could very well be the difference in the ballgame.

Raven QB vs. Pit defense: Elvis Grbac was supposed to be an improvement over Trent Dilfer, but Grcoc has had his struggles and has been a marginal improvement. Grcoc has some passing skill, and if given time, can throw the ball with decent accuracy. Grbac�s problems come when he gets harassed. He�s too slow to scramble that well, and he�s prone to forcing the ball and making poor errors in judgment when he�s hurried and harassed. In terms of QB pressure, the Stillers have been hot and cold this season. The coaching staff has often been content to go with 3 and 4 man rushes, which have generally allowed opposing QBs to snack on sandwiches while back in the pocket. The Stiller pass defense has been prone to jump on pump fakes, although Grbac isn�t one to use the pump-fake very often. Advantage: Stillers, by a medium margin.

Raven OL vs. Pit front 7: The Raven OL has been dinged with injury during �01. Starting RG Mike Goff is shelved, so the unheralded Bennie Anderson will get the nod. Clearly, the strength of the Raven OL is on their left side, with all-world left tackle Jon Ogden and adequate guard Ed Mulitalo. Mulitalo, however, is a bit hobbled, and listed as questionable. Kipp Vickers mans the right tackle spot, and he�s prone to make many gaffs in a given game. The Stiller front 3 had a strong season. Aaron Smith led the way, and was wreaking havoc by midseason and beyond. Kimo V., while sometimes taking himself out of running plays, also had a good season. Fat Casey Hampton took over the starting NT job and played solidly, and 2nd year man Kendrick Clancy provided good relief. ILBs Earl Holmes and KenBell had strong seasons. ROLB Joey Porter gave a lot of LTs problems with his electric quickness. Jason Gildon remains the primary weakness on the front 7, and the Ravens will surely look to exploit that when they aren�t trying to run behind Ogden. Stiller DC Tim Lewis would be wise to flip-flop Gildon and Porter on occasion, as Porter is more than capable of whipping Vickers with regularity. Advantage: Stillers, by a medium margin.

Raven RB vs. Pit defense: Terry Allen and Jason Brookins will tote the ball for the Ravens. Neither is the kind of slashing cut-back runner, in the mold of Terrell Davis or Curtis Martin, that has often hurt the Stillers. Allen doesn�t have the quickness he once had, and Brookins is more of a vanilla, smallish plowhorse. Allen is a solid receiver who could give the Stillers some problems if he�s neglected. FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo has developed into a solid blocker who is capable of chipping in with the passing game. Sam Gash is a tough FB who will hit hard and hit often. The Stillers defense has bottled up the Raven ground game in both meetings, and I don�t expect Allen or Brookins to run the ball with much success. Where these RBs can hurt the Stillers is on valve dumps in the flats, and on short drags over the middle if left unattended. Advantage: Stillers, by a large margin.

Raven TE vs. Pit. LB/SS: Shannon Sharpe is no spring chicken, but he was active enough to catch 71 passes this season. During last year�s postseason, Sharpe made a couple huge plays that helped carry the Ravens to the title. The Stillers have had problems all season long with covering the TEs. The best matchup could be using Joey Porter on Sharpe, but doing that would take away the best passrusher from harassing Grbac. SS Lee Flowers has stumbled about at times in his coverage on TEs, but no matter what he�ll have to cover Sharpe at least some of the time this Sunday. Earl Holmes� forte is run stuffing, and clearly Gildon is no match to cover Sharpe. Backup LB Mike Jones should see quite a bit of work in covering Sharpe on passing downs. Advantage: Ravens, by a medium margin.

Raven WR vs. Pit DB: Stiller-killer Quadry Ismail will be the #1 threat for the Ravens. Ismail had a strong season, going over 1,000 yards and grabbing 7 TDs. Former Gator Travis Taylor really developed into a solid #2 receiver this season. Taylor had a big day last week and could be gaining more of a rapport with Grbac. Brandon Stokley is a decent #3 receiver but not overly explosive. The Stiller secondary had a fairly strong season, but also had some games down the stretch in which they took some severe burnings. Likewise, Chad and DeWayne were both on their way toward pro bowl caliber seasons, until both took abuse and beatings. Brent Alexander did a solid job at FS, and key reserves Mike Logan and DeShea Townsend provided good coverage in the dime and the nickel. Chad and DW are both prone to biting on the stop-and-go and on the short stuff, and they�ll need to be wary of a Raven team that will be looking to hit a homerun or two in order to jump-start an otherwise sputtering offense. Advantage: Stillers, by a slim margin.

* When the Stillers have the ball, they�ll have The Bus back in action after his 6-week hiatus. The Stillers will look to expound on their rushing success in both of the prior meetings this year, in which they pushed the Ravens around a bit in the trenches. The Stillers also went airborne with considerable success in the last meeting, so the Stillers have shown success and diversity against the rugged Raven defense. The Stillers need to keep the aggressive Raven defense guessing, and avoid overt predictability and 3rd-&-longs. The Stiller offense can exploit the Ravens through the air, but the Stillers have been known to pull in the reigns when it comes down to pucker time.

The key matchup will be the Stiller passing game against the so-so Raven pass defense. You don�t want to go "Air Coryell" against Baltimore, but you must beat the Ravens through the air if you want to win the ballgame. Pass defense is their Achilles heel, and the Stillers must take advantage.

Pit OL vs. Raven front 7: The Ravens front 7 is perhaps the finest in all of football. DE Mike McCrary�s injury was a big blow, but they still have a load of beef and toughness up front. Former Pitt Panther Tony Siragusa works the middle along with fellow tub Sam Adams. Rob Burnett is under-rated, but a very capable and effective DE. Peter Boulware unselfishly moved to the DE spot when McCrary got hurt, and while he doesn�t have the brawn to stoutly plug the run, he�s an incredibly quick asset rushing off the corner, as evidenced by his superb strip last week of Jay Fiedler. Adalius Thomas will get the start at RDE and Boulware will back off to his OLB spot, but look for the Ravens to occasionally move Boulware to DE on passing downs. With all-world MLB Ray Lewis flanked by Boulware and tough, active, hard-htting OLB Jamie Sharper, the Ravens have the best LB corps of any 4-3 defense in the league. The Stillers O-line has had some nagging injuries at RG, but Rich Tylski will be back in the lineup. The left side of the O-line is far and away the stronger side, with road-grading Alan Faneca at LG and dependable Wayne Gandy at LT. Tylski is rusty, and was unquestionably the weak link of the starting linemen. RT Marvel Smith had a solid season, but is prone to leading with his helmet and lunging at defenders. If the OL can earn at least a "draw" in this matchup it will bode well for the Stillers. Advantage: Ravens, by a slim margin.

Pit QB vs. Raven defense: For whatever reason, Kordell Stewart has always played fairly well against the Ravens. His last meeting against the PoeBirds, in fact, was probably the best game of his career. Stewart gives the Ravens a threat of speed and quickness, something the fast Ravens defense usually doesn�t have to worry much about when facing less mobile QBs. The Ravens may look to mix up their coverages with blends of man and zone, because in the prior meetings the haughty Ravens have been content to pay straight up and Stewart clearly has found a rhythm against that simplified defense. Advantage: Stillers, by a slim margin.

Pit FB vs. Raven LB: The Ravens possess the finest set of LBs in any 3-4 defense. They are quick, tough, agile, smart, aggressive, and talented. Ray Lewis, of course, remains the key, because he is all over the field and very difficult to block. The only FB on the Stiller roster capable of taking on Lewis with any amount of effectiveness is Dan Kreider, who, in his first-ever NFL start in the 2000 season, cracked the daylight out of Lewis on several bruising ground plays. The Stillers have gotten into an inexplicable scheme of starting Jon Witman, and then gradually phasing in Kreider in the 2nd half. This is foolish, and you�ll have a good idea about the Stillers coaching staff�s collective mentality when you see who is starting at FB this Sunday. Advantage: Ravens, by a medium margin.

Pit WR vs. Raven DB: The Ravens secondary has been ripe for the beating in �01. CBs Duane Starks and Chris McAllister are both former #1 draft picks, but neither has progressed to the point of being a "shut down" corner. McAllister, because of his size, is apt to draw Burress most of the game, because Starks is simply too small and not physical enough to handle Plex. At safety, Woodson and Harris can bring the hits, but both are susceptible to the deep ball, as evidenced by Shaw�s 90-yard TD in the last meeting. Plex has torched the Ravens in both meetings this year, but in meeting #1, was frozen out and neglected by his own offense after a dominating first half. Ward was quiet in the 2nd meeting, but had a good game in the first, snaring 9 passes. What really helps this matchup for the Stillers is their #3 & #4 receivers, Bobby Shaw and Troy Edwards. The Ravens have no one off their bench who can cover either of these men out of the slot, and each should be a key contributor. Advantage: Stillers, by a medium margin.

* Spec Teams: The Ravens have very good spec teams. Jermaine Lewis is always a huge threat in the return game. In the last meeting, Lewis continually gave the Ravens good field position on kickoff returns. On punt returns, Lewis is a Metcalf-like jitterbug who can make the first couple tacklers miss, and then he�s off to the races. Kicker Matt Stover had a fine season, as has punter Kyle Richardson. Stover doesn't have a huge leg, but inside 40 yards, he's pretty deadly. Richardson isn�t a booming punter but he�s a decent pooch punter and is capable of pinning an offense near its own end zone. The Ravens will also take some chances to block punts and FGs, as evidenced by the key FG block by Woodson in the first meeting. The Stiller spec teams have been downright shameful in �01. The coverage has been pitiful, the return game has rarely gained good yardage, and the protection on punts/kicks has allowed several blocks. Kris Brown has struggled ever since the debacle of the first Baltimore meeting, especially at Heinz Field. Kris� mechanics did look very good in the finale vs. Cleveland, in which he ceased the punchy-style "half kicks" and followed through with a full, complete swing of his foot. His kickoffs have been very sporadic as far as distance and height. The Stillers rarely ever go for the block on punts or FGs, and probably haven�t blocked a kick since the elder Bush was running the country. Advantage: Ravens, by a huge margin.

Raven OC vs. Pit DC: Matt Cavanaugh is a capable offensive mind who�s been handcuffed this season by the constant injuries at RB, along with the inconsistent play of Grbac at QB. Cavanaugh should have a good idea of attacking the Stillers by now. He�s likely to try a deep ball to Ismail early on, if for no other reason than to stretch the Stiller CBs and then capitalize on the inevitable softee cushions. Cavanaugh has a mismatch with TE S. Sharpe, but in the meetings this year hasn�t exploited it that much. The Stiller CBs are prone to biting on the pump fake, so Cavanaugh may order Grbac to run a couple of these in critical situations. Tim Lewis has had the luxury all season of facing some of the league�s most incompetent, bumbling offenses, and most of the worst QBs. Yet, even at that, the Stiller defense has taken its share of burns and scorchings. Lewis is prone to go vanilla early and then often, and he�s also prone to play a softee, sit-back defense in the 4th quarter, which has been a dismal failure. Advantage: Ravens, by a slim margin.

Raven DC vs. Pit OC: Marvin Lewis is a highly respected DC around the league. His defense essentially won the Lombardi Trophy for the Ravens during last year�s campaign. Lewis knows his defense has struggled against the Stillers in both meetings, and he cannot go with the same gameplan of those two matches. Lewis needs to make a few adjustments, to include: mixing coverages on the Stiller receivers, in order to confuse Stewart and Burress; getting some blitz pressure on Stewart without allowing huge gaps for scrambling; and slowing down the Stiller ground game without exposing his secondary too badly. Look for Lewis to go with a variety of run-blitzes to shake up the Stiller ground game before it gets momentum at the LOS. Lewis will also look to take some chances when the Stillers bunch up their formation into a 15-foot front, by blitzing the house. Mike Mularkey has had a good season in his first year as OC. He�s took the shackles from Stewart�s legs and allowed him to do what he does best. He�s also gotten the ball downfield to Burress, and has mixed in Shaw and Edwards nicely in the 4-WR sets. The Stillers like to run left behind Faneca and Gandy, and with McCrary out, the weak part of the Raven front 7 is over at their right side, where Thomas will play DE. Even if Thomas gets a breather from Boulware, the Stillers still have a nice advantage over there, because Boulware simply isn�t brawny enough to stuff the run. The Stiller 2-minute drill has been shabby and slothful this season, and in the playoffs the 2-minutes at the end of each half are often the difference in the game, as evidenced by the Jan. �98 loss to Denver. Mularkey has grown fond at times this season in bunching up his offensive formations into phone-booth sized proportions. What Mularkey needs to do against this Raven defense is spread the field with 3 and 4 WR sets, so that the Ravens can�t bunch 8 defenders into a 15-foot front. Mularkey�s key task will be to continue applying pressure on the Raven defense by attacking their weak secondary, while not getting into a rut of Whaleshit Counters, an over-reliance on Bettis, and shorty screens and hitches. Advantage: Even.

Head Coach: In just his 2nd season as head coach, Brain Billick took a wild card team and won the Super Bowl with a QB named Trent Dilfer. Billick is known as a mastermind and a very intellectual coach. Bill Cowher is hardly a mastermind at anything, but he is a good motivator. This is the 3rd time Cowher has had the top seed in the AFC. The previous two times, his �92 team got embarrassed by the Bills and his �94 team lost to 10-point underdog San Diego. Cowher has also played 2 AFC title games at home (in addition to the SD loss), losing to Denver in �98 and barely eking by a weak, injury-ravaged Colts team in �96. Cowher has shown a perennial inability to adequately prepare, and then make in-game adjustments, against inferior foes. Cowher�s motivation is a great asset, but after the game is 10 minutes old, that motivation evaporates and execution and adjustment take over. It was only a few short months ago that Cowher�s team played the season opener with one of the most brainless, mentally deficient gameplans ever seen in the NFL, so it is not unthinkable that the same thing can happen in the playoffs. The loss to Baltimore in meeting #1 was the direct result of Field Goal Bill�s continual turtling near and in the red zone. Cowher�s overt playoff conservatism and stultification is world renown, and he alone is the biggest weak link on the Stillers. Advantage: Ravens, by a medium margin.

* Synopsis: The Ratbirds have their backs to the wall, and it�s always tough facing a cornered dog. Baltimore realizes this is probably their last hurrah, since key vets like Siragusa, Sharpe, Allen, and perhaps even Woodson won�t be around next year, due to the sal-cap or retirement. And the Ravens know they�ve had their asses handed back to them in both meetings, in terms of physical football. Expect the Ravens to come out with a lot of fire and intensity. Expect the Stillers to match that fire with their own steel resolve and intensity. As Cowher likes it, this game will be nip and tuck throughout, but the Stillers will overcome the turtling of Cowher, en route to a hard-fought 20-13 win over the PoeBirds.