Week 8 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�

 

Category	Previous	This week	Year to date	Won this stat but lost the game
Total yards rushing	66-27-3	6-7	72-34-3	Arizona Jacksonville Seattle NY Jets Carolina Detroit Cincinnati
TOP	61-33-1	9-4	70-37-1	Baltimore Arizona Jacksonville Cincinnati
100 yard rushers	36-11	3-3	39-14	Dallas New Orleans Cincinnati
>/= +2 Takeaways	46-5	6-0	52-5
YPA	75-18-2	9-3-1	84-21-3	NY Jets Cincinnati Oakland

 

Futility Index, per right-most column above:

 

Hosting the Titans, the Bengals won every stat category (except takeaways which were even) and yet still lost.

 

Hosting the Bucs, the Panthers ran it okay but were (-2) in takeaways and had an astonishingly low 0.95 YPA.� That is correct; Carolina went for 34 inches per pass.

 

Jacksonville had an edge over Houston in every category but YPA; air-Coughlin managed only 4.2.

 

Steelers Index:

 

1. In (4) games with Maddox at the helm, the Steelers have put up 29, 34, 28 and 31 points.� That�s 30.5 PPG.� Maddox is 5^th in the NFL with a QB rating of 94.4; he is 3^rd in YPA at 7.85 and 1^st in TD ratio at 7.3%.� On the downside, his INT ratio is 31^st at 4.9%.

 

2. Part of the Steelers success on offense has resided with their revitalized run game.� Following Browns 1, the Steelers were under 80 YPG at about 3.1 YPC.� In the past (4) games, they have rushed for a bit more than 160 YPG; for the season, their YPC mark is now 4.3, T-14^th in the league.� 160 per, season-long, would have them 2^nd overall between San Diego at 161.7 and Kansas City (159.4).�

 

3. In the past (4) games, the Steelers have been (+6) in takeaways and (+8) in the past (3).� That puts them at (-1) on the season.� The Steelers have won when they�ve been even (Browns 1) or better (Bengals, Colts and Ravens) in takeaways.� If not, not.

 

4. Quote from Week 7, Next Opponent: �All things equal, the results in Baltimore will be similar to those in the Queen City.� However, takeaways are the great leveler; the Ravens are +2 in this department, the Steelers are �5.� On the plus side, the Steelers are +4 over the last (2) games.� If that trend continues, the Steelers will win easily.� If not, it�ll be a struggle in Charm City. �� Well, kind of though 34-7 trumps 31-18.� The (small) difference was sacks; Kitna was on deck but Blake was not.

 

5. Jeff Blake got (50) passes away; the Steelers had just (1) sack that being of the coverage variety accomplished by Haggans over Pro Bowl LOT Jon Ogden.� 1/51 stinks; had the Steelers been so inefficient last year, they would have had less than 12 sacks for the season.�

 

6. The Steelers pass defense gave up over 290 yards to both Manning and Blake.� At present, they are 29^th in the league in YPG against.� That�s not good but, on the plus side, they have allowed each of their past (3) opponents less than 6.0 YPA and, in that time, collected (9) INT.� In fact, the pass defense has risen in more telling categories including: YPA (7^th in the NFL at 6.36), PD (6^th in the NFL with 47), QB rating against (6^th in the NFL at 70.5), sacks (6^th in the NFL with 20) and INT (2^nd in the NFL with 13).

 

7. In contrast, the run defense is T-5 at 88.4 YPG but just T-11 at 4.0YPC against.� The Steelers are getting better in the YPC area; Dillon, Edge and J. Lewis all went for less than 4.0.� However, those runners each had less than (20) carries too; IMO, the Steelers haven�t so much stopped the run as, by jumping to early leads, forced their past (3) opponents to abandon that mode.

 

8. Overall, the defense is T-18 in YPG at 337.4; not good, especially considering they are tied with run-challenged Buffalo.� You want a dream AFCC match-up; well, how about the Donahoe- Modrak led Bills?

 

9. How good has Joey Porter been?� Well, Porter is T-1 league-wide with (4) INT.� Oddly, he shares that distinction with (2) LB, Derrick Brooks and Donnie Edwards, and (1) SS, Greg Wesley; (0) CB are in the top group.� Aside from Porter, (41) players have (2) or more INT; of those, not one has more than 1.5 sacks.� Porter is T-7 league-wide in that department with (6); add (5) PD, (1) FF and a blocked punt and, well, you�re looking at a playmaker par excellence.

 

10. �While at or near the top league-wide in the categories listed above, Porter has fallen to 5^th on the team in PD.� That�s good news; Scott has (9), DT and DW (7) each and Mike Logan (6).� Porter is a LB; it is all to the good that (4) DB surpass him in this category.� Oddly though, only (2) are starters.

 

11. �Two Raven players returned (6) KO for 98 yards total.� That�s 16.33 per return; damn good coverage.� Todd Petersen got better distance with kicks to the 9,4,7,5,6, and 9.� As a result, the Ravens, on average started at their 23; that�s good enough.

 

Next Opponent:

 

In the first two games of the season, the Steelers had all kinds of problems stopping 5-wide attacks.� In neither game, did they stop the pass; in the Raider game, they failed to stop the run either.� Despite that, opponents have, pretty much, abjured that mode since.�

 

The Browns run game is horrendous; they average just 3.5 YPC and are at, or near, the bottom in YPG.� Their O-line is beat-up and, even when healthy, none too powerful.� The Steeler Front 7 overmatches this group; consequently, we can expect to see the Browns scheme to even the odds.

 

Couch ran a spread at UK and the Browns have (4) talented WR to go with Jamal White, a RB in the Garner mode who can catch it out of the backfield.� Given that, I�ve got to believe the Browns will spread it out and, at some point, we�ll see whether the dime line can stop the run out of a single back set.

 

Kevin Johnson and Quincy Morgan are the starting WR but Andre Davis and Dennis Northcutt are far more dangerous.� The Browns are T-4 in receiving TD with (15); Davis has (5) and Northcutt (4).� Each player also has chipped in a return TD.�

 

Presuming Cleveland spreads the field, I think they�ll score and score often.� If so, this should be a track meet.� Cleveland�s defense is beat up too; they lost LB Jamir Miller early and now have (3) starting DB nicked and/or on the sidelines.� Cleveland is allowing 4.5 YPC (T-23 in the NFL) and 6.73 YPA (19^th overall).� They have just (8) INT and (35) PD; they�re not stopping anyone and they�re not making many plays.

 

At Heinz, the Browns played (5) D-linemen so to stop the run.� With Bettis and Fu both out, the Steeler rush threat is much diminished this weekend.� However, the pass game is more than respectable; I�d expect the Browns to come in Cover Two and stick.� Hopefully, that opens the field for Amos; certainly Ward and Randle-EL can make plays underneath.

 

It�ll be an aerial war; the deciding factor will be pressure and there it will be weak on weak.� The Steeler D-side will have Porter in coverage vs. the 4-WR; with Bell still rounding into form and Gildon taking time from Haggans, it�s anyone�s guess how Tim Lewis will get pressure.� Luckily, the Browns O-line is below average; then again, so was the Ravens and. last week, the Steelers had just (1) sack.

 

The Browns have only (16) sacks on the season; Mark Word and Kenard Lang have combined for (9).� Courtney Brown, 1^st pick overall in �00 and Gerard Warren, 3 rd overall in �01, have combined for (1) sack.� Talent tells though, if those guys get off, it�ll be a long afternoon for T-Max.

 

I don�t think that will happen; look for the Steelers to get (30), as has been the norm under Tommy�s leadership.� If the Browns go with to their 4-WR early and often, it�ll be a shoot-out.� If not, figure roughly the same score as last week in Charm City.