Smitter�s Week 3 Picks vs the spread
Last week:�� 9-7�� Overall: 17-15�� 53.1%
FLG�s last week: 1-1�
FLG�s overall: 3-2� 60%
Last Sunday, BigDaddySweetLove made mention of not betting against the teams from Florida in September, after I picked (and lost) Buffalo to beat Tampa Bay. And that is one of the things I would normally look at, the same way I look at not picking the Florida teams when they travel north in December. I didn�t have any stats to back me up, that is just one of those things that seem right. But, I did a little bit of checking this week. I did it quickly, so my numbers may not be 100% correct, but they are close. I checked the last 5 years, and here is what I found: During home games in September, the Florida teams are 15-9 (62.5%). Actually, Jax and Miami are real good, over 70% each, but Tampa is only 2-4 the last 5 years at home in September. Yes, Tampa had only 6 home games at home in September the last 5 years. One year, they didn�t play at home until October. I broke that 15-9 down further, to record against the so-called cold-weathered teams. The Florida teams� record during that time is 9-5, 64.3%, which supported picking Tampa over Buffalo last week, which I didn�t. I then went further. Figuring that the Florida teams would also have an advantage in October, when it is still hot in Florida, but starting to cool off up North, I checked the October records vs the spread. During October, at home, the Florida teams record is 15-14, only 51.7%, which is over 50%, but not good enough if someone takes 10% of your winnings. I then checked the October record against cold-weathered teams. Florida teams in October at home are 10-8, 55.6% against the cold-weathered teams. Just something to consider this week when Carolina invades Miami!
This week�s picks:
Steelers (- 3 �) over New England � I think
New England needs this game more than the Steelers. There is a possibility of
New England starting the year 1-5 or 2-4 if they lose this one. Ben goes wild
in this one.
St. Louis (- 6 �) over Tennessee � Rams get
untracked on the turf
Philadelphia (- 7 �) over Oakland � This
round of TO vs Randy Moss goes to TO. Eagles are on a roll, may clinch
homefield in the woeful NFC by Halloween.
Chicago (+ 3 �) over Cincinnati � I may
regret this one, but I am still not sold on the Bengals. Bears are at home, and
played well last week. Just a hunch here.
N.Y. Jets (- 2 �) over Jacksonville � Even with
weak-armed Pennington, Jets have decent team and shot at AFC East is Pats
falter.
Minnesota (- 3 �) over New Orleans � Vikings
not as bad as they have showed so far.
Miami (+ 3 �) over Carolina � see above
Indianapolis (- 13 �) over Cleveland � Indy offense
will get untracked this week.
Buffalo (- 2 �) over Atlanta � No reason
why other than the Falcons go on the road after a west coast loss last week.
Green Bay (+ 3 �) over Tampa Bay � I don�t
think Green Bay is as bad as they have looked, nor Tampa Bay as good as they
have looked.
Arizona (+ 6 �) over Seattle � In the
weak NFC West, an Arizona win puts them at 1-2 and in the thick of the division
race. Seattle way better home team than road team, but Dennis Green has the
Cards ready this week.
Dallas (- 6 �) over San Francisco � Dallas rebounds
from Monday Night debacle.
San Diego (- 5 �) over N.Y. Giants � San Diego
needs win in a bad way. Giants, having played the �home� away game in all the
hoopla surrounding last week�s game, are due for a drop.
Denver (- 3 �) over Kansas City � Denver will
be rocking Monday Night. Kansas City�s hope for a 3-0 start is wiped away in
the Mile High City.
My First Look Goodies (FLG) for the week are:
Steelers (- 3 �) over New England
Philadelphia (-7 �) over Oakland
Green Bay (+ 3 �) over Tampa Bay