Wildcard Preview

Wildcard Round, Steelers @ Bengals:

 

Some say Cincinnati�s win at Heinz Week 13 inaugurated a new era in the AFC North, the Time of the Tiger.� In the aftermath, pundits proclaimed Palmer Rampant, and the Steelers� senescence, on this (slender) basis: the two teams split their season series.� Well, it may play that way but consider this: parity reigns in the show, dynasty does not.�

 

This Steeler edition was forged in 1998, when Faneca, Ward and Townsend were drafted.� In eight seasons since, the PS donned their division crown three times.� Not Lombardi�s Packers, exactly.� Between 1991 and 2005, fourteen years when the Bengals earned an outsiders view of the playoffs, these teams split their season series six times.� Back to back in �95 and �96 but otherwise, every split was followed by a Steelers� sweep.� Too true, one year�s results guarantee nothing to the next but that cuts both ways.� There was no �changing of the guard� Week 13 because there was no guard.� No old guard anyway since, in the NFL, every season is new.

�

Perennial springtime: peculiar to a sport whose schedule takes up at the height of summer, coursing through autumn�s failing foliage to close in the depth of winter.� But there it is; thirty-two teams start, two finish and one wins.� Between, amidst the mayhem, false starts or glitterati few things persist but some, pertinent to those last results, do:

 

�         Last time, the PSO tallied three INT and fumbled four times, losing one.� The PSD tallied no turnovers.� Teams (-4) in takeaways almost always lose.� Reference: New England at Heinz, AFCC, two times.�

 

�         Yards gained, or given, on ST do count.� Teams that allow nearly 40 yards per kick return almost always lose.�� That is especially so when one comes back to the 3.�

 

Those terms encapsulate that action.� No trend or sea change but the same as it ever was and, if it goes like that again, either way, the results figure to follow.� Now:

 

Season long D-side comparison, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh:�

 

	PPG	YPG	Plays faced	Rush YPC	Pass YPA	v. QB Rating	Sack %	Takes	3rd down	Penalty Yards
Steelers	16.1 #3	284 #4	998 #16	3.4 #1	6.34 #5	74.0 #8	8.2% #3	30 T-11	39.7% #20	1031 #27
Bengals	21.9 #23	338.7 #28	976 #10	4.3 T-26	7.22 #28	72.8 #5	4.5% #31	44 #1	42.6% #30	985 #22

 

 

• The PSD closed top ten in six departments.� It is worth noting that their desultory performance against Joey Harrington factored little.� YPA remained constant, as did sack rate, although QB rating did drop three spots, on a 1.2 decline.� Even after allowing the Lions (3) TD by air, the PSD remained T-2 in TD receptions against.� Going into Week 17, they�d allowed just (12), but even that was behind Chicago, who closed at (10).�

 

• A word on the PSD sack rate.� 8.2% is outstanding, the League average being 6.7%.� However, it is worth noting that the Steelers got (16) sacks in two games, @ Houston and @ Cleveland; (16) takedowns in (81) dropbacks, a rate of 19.75%.� Factoring out those games, the PSD rate overall would drop to 6%.� On a season long basis, that would be worth #23 or so, Detroit or Washington territory.�� Here, the difference between (below) average and outstanding rests on two (anomalous) tilts.�

 

• Cincinnati is #22 or below in seven of ten departments; they are 4^th quartile in five of those.� They do one thing well, intercept the ball.� Their #1 rank there (31 INT) props up their QB rating, which otherwise probably would be in the bottom quarter too.

 

• The Bengals are 10^th in plays faced but 28^th in yards per game.� Cincinnati yielded 5.6 yards per play; T-29^th overall, with the sit-at-home Rams.� Only the Niners (5.7) and Texans (5.8) were worse.� Setting those INT aside, theirs is not a playoff-worthy defense.� In many aspects, the Bengal D is one of the very worst in the League.�

 

The stats tabulated above suggest that the PSD is solid in all aspects, and outstanding upfront.� There is a caveat concerning the Steelers� ability to get consistent pressure, a subject to which we�ll return in discussing the Bengal-O.� As for the Cincinnati D-side, well, it�s apparent that, except as that unit creates turnovers, they can be had.� See:

 

PSO performance, two games v. Cincinnati

 

	O-side Points	Yards	Plays	RB rush yards	Yards passing	A/C/TD/INT	Sacks	Fumbles/INT	3rd downs
Total, 2 games	58	778	129	308	479	55/38/5/4	2	2/4	10/24
	PPG	YPG	Average TOP	RB YPG	YPA	QB rating	Sack %	TO per tilt	3rd down %
Average	29.0	389.0	34:23	154	8.71	95.9	3.6%	3	41.7%

 

• The boldface indicates areas where the PSO exceeded the Bengal D�s average give.� In five cases, the Steelers exceeded their own season average too.�

 

• The PSO exceeded the Bengal yield in YPA and QB rating but were a bit below their own (excellent) standard.� Conversely, most teams did better converting 3^rd down v. Cincinnati, though not by much.� However, the PSO was good enough here where, generally, they had failed against other, better opponents.�

 

• The Bengals� TO haul, three per, is about on pace with their season average, 2.75.� Three is a loser, generally, and that was an uncharacteristic yield for this PSO.� On the season, that set committed just 23 TO.� Excluding those twin Bengal tilts, 17 in 14 games (or 13 in 13, excluding the Jags).� As for week 13, well, it could have been worse; the PSO fumbled 4 times that day, but lost just one.

 

Week 7, the PSO was run-heavy early and throughout; in the end, 43 trips, their 2^nd high mark on the year.� In contrast, Week 13 the Whizmen executed a characteristically balanced H1; however, the game situation was such that their air attack predominated in H2.� In the end, the PSO had 43 PA, more than in any tilt, save that demented affair down in Charm City.���

 

It was what it was.� Demonstrably, this PSO can move it against this Bengal-D, either by ground or by air.� The Bengal run-D is average to their left where Justin Smith and David Pollack line-up.� They are awful everywhere else; beat-up at DT and forced to field their #3 and #4 safeties, two guys who cannot play the run.� As for the air game, well, pressure does not figure to factor; the Bengals have one of the worst pass rushes in the show.� Odell Thurman covers well on intermediate routes and Delthea O�Neal is effective deep but that�s it; that�s the complete list of Bengal D-side playmakers.��

 

Keys, PSO v. Bengal D:

 

• Locate Thurman under, avoid James over the top:� As noted, were it not for that hellacious pick haul, this Bengal defense would be near the bottom of the heap.� These two players have (15) of the Bengals� (31) INT.� O�Neal leads with (10); he has been exceptional on the deep ball, but can be had intermediate or under. �The corollary is: go at Tory James, under, over or intermediate.� This season, James has been below average in all aspects.

 

• More Willie:� In two games against the Bengals, Willie Parker rushed 33 times for 202 yards.� All other Steeler RB had 106 in 35 trips.� Bettis was effective in Cincinnati; however, his insertion Q2 at Heinz blunted that PSO attack.� If the goal is to get the big man home for his championship go, then his role has got to be goal to go.���

 

• Max Starks v. David Pollack: �The Bengals didn�t have a prime time pass rusher, that�s why they drafted Pollack last spring.� An early holdout and in-season injury limited Pollack throughout much of this season; however, he did close with two sacks in KC.� Starks has blocked run effectively but been inconsistent, at best, in pass pro.� On the come, this is one match that could go the Bengals way.�

 

On the other side of the ball:

 

Season-long O-side Comparison, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh

 

	PPG	YPG	TOP	Rush YPG	Pass YPA	QB Rating	Sack % Against	Turnovers	3rd down	Penalty Yards
Steelers	24.3 #9	321.8 #16	31:16 #8	138.9 #5	8.90 #1	98.6 #3	7.7% #25	23 T-6th	35.4% #23	876 #12
Bengals	26.3 #4	352 #6	30:52 #10	119.4 #11	7.54 #8	101.2 #2	3.6% #2	20 #5	42.9 #3	920 #17

 

• YPA and QB rating are for Roethlisberger and Palmer; those are not team totals.�

 

• No denying, the Bengal-O is one solid unit; top ten in eight of ten categories and just outside in a ninth.

 

• The PSO is about as powerful as the PSD; top ten in five categories here, in six there.

 

• The primary difference between the PS and Bengal O-units is in pass protection.� Palmer gets time, Roethlisberger does not.� Despite that, the Steelers, not the Bengals, have the League�s most potent air game.�

 

Bengal performance, two games v. PSD

 

	O-side Points	Yards	Plays	RB rush yards	Yards passing	A/C/TD/INT	Sacks	Fumbles/INT	3rd downs
Total, 2 games	51	626	121	164	448	74/43/3/2	3	0/2	9/24
	PPG	YPG	Average TOP	RB YPG	YPA	QB rating	Sack %	TO per tilt	3rd down %
Average	25.5	313	25:37	82	6.05	77.10	3.8%	1	37.5%

 

• Boldface indicates areas where the PSD limited the Bengals to something worse than their season average.� That is every aspect, excluding turnovers.� In particular, note YPA and passer rating; on balance Roethlisberger has outperformed Palmer, head-to-head.

 

• �The Bengals did take care of the ball, committing no turnovers when they won, and just two earlier.�

 

• Inside the numbers:� Sack rate is +0.2 the Bengal-O season average but� �4.8% the PSD�s rate.� Advantage: Bengals.�

 

Like the Indy Colts, Cincinnati features a no-huddle, single back, 3-wide attack.� This compels the nickel as base de jour�, so to speak; that set being best able to deal with the 3-wide.� That was the Steelers featured grouping at Indy, and in both tilts against Cincinnati.� However, unlike the Colts, the Bengals do have the O-line talent to play power football.� Here is why the Steelers� nickel of choice, 2-4-5, was (relatively) effective against Indy, but not against the Bengals. The Colt O-line can�t get a push; the Bengal O-line can.�

 

On balance, the Steelers have made Carson Palmer look like an ordinary QB; the YPA and rating numbers noted above are not good.� On the downside, they�ve been ineffective dealing with Rudi Johnson.� Against the PSD, Johnson averaged better than 80 YPG, at 4.8 YPC.� Those figures exceed his season haul and, really, they could have been far better.� Remember, Johnson had about 40 yards in Q1 Week 7; game situation, primarily the Steelers� ability to grind clock H2, effectively removed Rudi from that contest.�

 

To win Sunday, the PSD must slow the Bengal O.� To do so, they must stop, or slow, Rudi Johnson.� They have not done so in the 2-4-5; presuming they�ll be in nickel again, which is a safe bet, a 3-3-5 may be the better alternative.� Either way, the D-line has to win some.� It is worth noting that, 2 down or 3, they haven�t beaten the Bengals yet.� In portions of both games, OC Rich Braham has singled up Casey Hampton.� RT Willie Anderson, long among the finest run blocking RT in the game, absolutely has dominated Aaron Smith.��� Otherwise:

 

Keys:� PSD v. Bengal O:

 

• Who�s got TJ?:� Ike Taylor has been fairly effective against Chad Johnson but Houshmandzadeh has had his way with the Steelers� package DB.� TJ has 10R (5 each game), 163 yards and 2 TD; that�s a 16-game pace of 80/1,304/16TD, Honolulu numbers.� In part, that�s a consequence of the Bengal 3-wide.� Chad Johnson and Chris Henry overmatch all Steeler DB save Polamalu, Taylor and McFadden.�� IMO, Townsend is the Steelers� best match against Houshmandzadeh; both are cagey vets, if with only a minimum of physical skills.�

 

• Reggie Kelly v. Clark Haggans:� Reggie Kelly is one of the better blocking TE in football.�� Haggans didn�t play Week 7; Week 13, he had (6) T but just (3) in the run game.� Kelly�s run blocking was instrumental in the Bengals� success running right.�

 

• On 3^rd down, key Chris Perry:� Perry may never be a feature back, but he is one of the better 3^rd down RB in the League.� He is Palmer�s preferred outlet receiver.� Take Perry out and, sooner or later, the Bengals� Golden Boy will force it.� It would help if one of the Steelers� skillet-handed DB picked that off.�

 

Conclusion:

 

The PSO closed in a rush, averaging 185 yards per over their final four games.� In three, they gained 190 or better, averaging 204 in the last two.� On the face of it, that�s an overmatch.� The Bengal run-D is bad and the Steelers are running more effectively than at any point in this season.� However, it is worth noting that most of those yards were gained late.� In those final four, the PSO rushed for 740 yards, but just 210 in all H1.��

 

SOP: the PSO passed to get the lead, and ran to win.� That played out in the first Bengal tilt; then, the Steelers� H2 run game effectively removed Rudi Johnson from the contest; then, the Steeler packages handled the Bengal air attack with ease.� It amounts to this:

 

• To win, the Steelers must limit the Bengal O.� That means, get Rudi Johnson out of the game.�

 

• To do so, they must get on the lead.� The 2005 Steelers have yet to win when trailing at the half.�

 

To score early, and often, the Steelers will have to throw the ball.� That is to say, they must be willing to take what the Bengals, no doubt, will offer.� Coach Lewis has little choice but to load up against the run.� Coach Cowher does have a choice.� Most likely, the Steelers can move on the ground, even if Cincinnati has 8 or 9 in the box.� However, they can�t score like that, not enough anyway.� The Bengal O will remain a force until some product of score/time remaining factors out Rudi Johnson.� So, Coach Cowher�s choice amounts to this: throw early as part of a balanced attack or throw late, in catch-up mode.�

 

Back of the book:

 

Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:

 

2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:

 

	First Half			Second Half			Final
	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Score
v. Titans	16	� 9	20-7	25	�2	14-0	41	11	34-7
@ Texans	15	16	20-0	17	�6	� 7-7	32	22	27-7
v. Patriots	11	12	10-7	10	21	10-16	21	33	20-23
@ Chargers	18	16	14-7	13	12	10-15	31	28	24-22
v. Jaguars	11	14	14-10	14 OT: 3	17 OT: 2	� 3-7 �� 0-06	28	33	17-23
@Bengals	14	� 9	�7-6	29	�6	20-7	43	15	27-13
v. Ravens	13	19	10-10	13	15	10-9	26	34	20-19
@ Packers	� 9	10	13-3	16	11	� 7-7	25	21	20-10
v. Browns	14	21	17-7	24	� 8	17-14	38	29	34-21
@ Ravens	� 6	17	�6-13	11 OT: 4	26 OT: 5	�� 7-0 � 0- 3	21	48	13-16
@ Colts	14	16	7-16	10	15	0-10	24	31	7-26
v. Bengals	16	20	17-21	12	23	14-17	28	43	31-38
v. Bears	14	12	14-3	30	8	7-6	44	20	21-9
@Vikings	10	13	10-3	23	9	8-0	33	22	18-3
@ Browns	21	16	20-0	14	7	21-0	35	23	41-0
v. Lions	13	12	21-14	29	6	14-7	42	18	35-21

 

By definition:

 

�         Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.

�         Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.�

�         Aborted snaps, ala v. Green Bay and Jacksonville, are not counted either as runs or passes.�

 

Notes:

 

�         The Steelers have run more than passed just 6 times in all H1.� Those included 5 of the more impressive wins this season: Tennessee, @ San Diego, @ Cincinnati, Chicago and @ Cleveland; the 6^th was at Heinz, hosting Detroit.� However, this run differential was slight; 22 total and never more than 7 in any single game.

 

�         The largest H1 unbalance came in Baltimore, Ravens 2.� Surprisingly (considering their #3 QB had the reins), the Steelers were 11 to the pass side.� No surprise, they got nothing done.�

 

�         Most of the Steelers� run/pass bulge was built over 7 second halves: Tennessee, Houston, Cincinnati 1, Cleveland 1, Chicago Minnesota and Detroit.� A double-digit differential each time: overall the edge is 142, 187 runs and 45 passes.� It is worth noting that 3 came in the last 4 games; the 4^th, Cleveland 2, showed a H2 run bulge of +7.

 

�         The Steelers were 10-2 in games when they led at the break, 1-0 when tied and 0-3 when trailing.� Figure it out.�

 

 

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