The home of die hard Pittsburgh Steelers fans. It's not just a team, it's a way of life!

Week 8 in Review

October 29, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Total yards rushing

 

Long time readers here may be familiar with our Week in Review feature.� This work is stat-focused with twin intent, to identify those components that contribute to winning football and to find some means of evaluating those items� relative weight.�

 

Week 8 in Review:

 

 

Previous Total

This Week

Year to date

WF to date

Teams that won this category but lost their game

3rd down conversions

73-28-1

11-3

84-31-1

1.46

Seahawks, 49ers, Bills.

TOP

65-37

12-2

77-39

1.33

Texans and Chargers

Total Yards Offense

62-39-1

12-2

74-41-3

1.30

Seahawks and Jets.

Rushing Attempts

77-20-5

10-2-2

87-22-7

1.56

Bills and Chargers

YPA

66-35-1

11-3

77-38-1

1.34

Seahawks, 49ers and Jets.

+2 Sacks

35-12

� 7-1

42-13

1.53

Jets

Red Zone (Efficiency)

58-27

� 5-7

63-34

1.30

Jags, Seahawks, Steelers, Saints, 49ers, Texans, Vikings.

Red Zone (Trips)

63-22

14-0

77-22

1.59

 

Takeaways (>/=+2)

40-3

� 9-0

49-3

1.88

 

Takeaways (+1 only)

20-12

� 3-0

23-12

1.31

 

 

Note:� The index figure, WF (winning factor) is calculated as # wins/0.5 total games in category, ties are counted as � wins; it should be apparent that WF figures range between 1.0 and 2.0.� See the article, 5 Weeks in Review (October 2003), for various caveats concerning the categories posted above.

 

Coulda shoulda, teams that found a way to lose:

 

Week 8 went to form.� Takeaways can be a great leveler; that is, a team can get beat in some number of phases but still pull out a win due to a plus margin in that department.� However, for the most part this week, winning teams won in just about every phase.� As usual, takeaways were a winning factor but this week they were just one of many.

 

Tough week for RZ efficiency though:

 

  • The Jags, Steelers, Vikings and Saints won RZ efficiency but you know 1/1 didn�t amount to much in what were serious, unremitting and merciless beatdowns (Vikings vs. NYG excepted).

 

  • Houston was 3/3 in the RZ and had a small TOP advantage against Indy; however, they had no answer to Peyton Manning.� On the plus side for the Capers-men, rookie RB Domanick Davis got another 100 on the ground.� A 4th rounder last spring, Davis is the first rookie RB since Mike Anderson to gain 100 in back-to-back games; Anderson was taken by Denver in the 6th in 2000.��

 

  • Seattle was (-5) in takeaways; that�ll cancel any advantage elsewhere.� Superstar RB Corey Dillon has apparently quit on his team; however, the Bengals got 101 yards rushing from backup Rudi Johnson.� Like D. Davis, Johnson is a former 4th round pick.�

 

  • The 49ers have some serious ST problems.� Last week, their kicker missed 3 FG against T-Bay; this week, he missed two of two.� Add a botched snap and down go the Niners.

 

Otherwise:

 

  • The Jets got excellent pressure on Eagle QB Donavan McNabb, garnering 5 sacks in the process.� However, they lost most other phases; including 194 yards rushing allowed, C. Buckhalter, another 2nd day pick, got 100 for the Eagles.� After opening 0-2, Philly has risen to 4-3; over that period, they�ve done without All Pro FS Brian Dawkins, Pro Bowl CB Bobby Taylor and Pro Bowl OG Jermaine Mayberry.� Consider that when the Steeler injury litany next comes up.

 

  • The Pats got over on Cleveland, 9-3.� NE was 0/3 in the RZ, Cleveland 0/1.� The Browns are uneven in most phases but their RZ defense really is outstanding; theirs is a scheme that the Steelers� 2004 D-coordinator should study, though I don�t think Tim Lewis will have to concern himself with it.� Of note: former Steeler OLB Mike Vrabel had 6 tackles, 3 sacks and a forced fumble for the Pats.

 

  • Boller watch:� Raven rookie QB Kyle Boller reverted to form going 15/23 for 137 yards.� The Ravens were 1/5 in the RZ.

 

  • Through 7 weeks, the Arizona Cards were last in the league rushing the ball.� Emmitt Smith had given it a shot but no-go.� Smith got hurt and on came Marcel Shipp, yet another former 2nd day pick.� Shipp had looked pretty good in 2002; Sunday, he looked great rushing for 165 yards as the Cards took the Niners.

 

  • Number of former 2nd day draft picks who rushed for 100 yards or more yesterday:� 5, those 4 mentioned above and Stephen Davis (drafted 4/96).

 

Steeler Index:�

 

  1. Last week, we did a little calculation concerning the Steeler pass-d and QB rating against.� You may recall that through 6 weeks, the Steelers had established a mark of 83.6 (over all 6 games); however, pulling out the numbers that rookie Kyle Boller and antique Steve Beuerlein accomplished, that QB rating against rose to 105.3.� Evidently, that was closer to the mark; last Sunday in Game 1000, Marc Bulger went 22/37 for 375 yards and 1 TD.� That�s 102.9; figure +100 against from here.��� Special thanks to Fox talking head Bill Maas who, after watching just a few quarters, described this Steeler edition as a �circle-d�.� �That�s one with no corners.

 

  1. With 2 TD against 3 INT, Tommy Maddox�s season TD/pick numbers rose to 7/11, or �4 in the TD/pick department.�� Coming into this season, Maddox was +4; as such, he was one of three QB in Pittsburgh Steeler history on the plus side in TD/pick ratio.� Now there are two (Bradshaw and O�Donnell); over a 1000 game history, that�s not great.��

 

  1. Spike�s Game 7 stat line:� 1 catch, 3 drops, 0 heart.

 

  1. Baseball near-great Rafael Palmeiro has made a dime or two shilling for Viagra.� The NFL is tied into rival Levitra and maybe, Troy Polamalu should give them a call.� You�ve seen that ad where some dope is running around his yard flinging a football through a tire? That�s Levitra; well, Polamalu did do a nice Michelin mimic last weekend; maybe there�s a buck in that or, maybe not, since both products are intended to produce wood, with rubber merely a sub-optimal ancillary add-on.

 

  1. Dumb: The Rams had only one effective run play Sunday, that being the draw.� No surprise there since, at the first sign of a pass, the Steelers dropped 7 or 8 into coverage all day.� So, whenever the Rams needed a run, they ran it off play action, nearly always a draw; otherwise, straight up, the Steelers stuffed the Ram run game.� As usual, no adjustment upstairs in the B&G booth though IMO, the Steelers could have countered that play, and improved their blitz pack at once; let a LB hang back, check draw and then come.� There�s your blitz delay; of course, the coverage would have to hold up for maybe 3-4 seconds.

 

  1. Dumber: �Deep in the third quarter, the Steelers were up 21-20 but the Rams had driven about 60 yards into the Steeler RZ.� On came the dime, the Ram draw followed, 9-yard run, 27-21, Steelers done.� This is exactly the same strategic blunder that Coach Lewis made last year in Game 11 (Tennessee) when, on two occasions after Hampton came out, Eddie George waltzed through the center of the Steeler dime to score.�� Live and learn or, don�t and die.�

 

  1. Only 4 RB have had more than 3000 career carries.� Those are Emmitt Smith (4117 and counting), Walter Payton (3838), Barry Sanders (3062) and Marcus Allen (3022); Eric Dickerson wasn�t far off (2996).� Jerome Bettis has 2929; chances are he�s about 100 from done.� The 2003 Steelers are 3 losses from done too but at this point, they might as well ride the Bus right through the 8-loss mark. 71 more carries or 3 more losses, whichever comes first; past 8 in the lost column, it�s time to audition Haynes and Brown.

 

  1. Ram RB Arlen Harris rushed for just 81 yards on 34 carries.� That�s not great but it was good enough to control the clock; factor in 3 TD and you�ve got an above average game. Like Steeler Dante Brown, Harris is a rookie UDFA; like Steeler Verron Haynes, Harris had fumble-itis earlier in the season.� Unlike Haynes, Harris got another chance; that�s two more than Dante Brown has received.��

 

  1. Washington Beat:� No-cornerback Dewayne Washington trails 3 PS starting DB, 3 PS starting LB and 1 PS starting D-linemen in the HOP category, that is INT and PD combined.�� Washington neither defended nor picked any of 37 Marc Bulger tosses last Sunday; however, the same may be said of each Steeler starting DB.� On the plus side, rookie Troy Polamalu broke his maiden, defending 2 and so moving into T-8 (tied with Washington) on the team.� Of note: Hometown hero Mike Logan defended 3 balls in the first two games, none since.

 

  1. Over this 4 game losing skid, the Steeler D has allowed 17/47 3rd down conversions.� That�s 36%, which is not great but not awful.� In the same period, the Steeler offense has converted 10/49; that�s just over 20%, which is miserable.

 

  1. Four teams have 1 just one win to date; they are: Atlanta, San Diego, Jacksonville and Detroit.� Six teams have 2 wins; they are: Houston, Arizona, Chicago, Oakland, NYJ and the Steelers.� At the moment, the Steelers would draft between 5-10 overall but you know, they�re moving up fast.

 

Next Opponent:

 

To beat the Rams, you have to beat up the Rams, on both sides of the ball.� As is well known, the Ram pass attack is all about timing; if their WR can get off the LOS clean, it�s all over.�

 

Oops, sorry�

 

  • To beat the Seahawks, you have to run the ball.� That Seattle Front 7 is an old group and, chances are, they�re beginning to wear down.� That would explain how the Bengals rang up 194 yards rushing last week (that and Peter Warrick�s 50 yard gain off a reverse).�

 

  • We�ll see a big hitting rookie safety next week.� Ken Hamlin plays for the Seahawks; Hamlin was taken early in the 2nd round, 40 or so overall.� He and fellow rookie CB Marcus Trufant (1.11) have upgraded the Hawk secondary in dramatic fashion.�

 

Note:� The Week in Review will return for Week 10, nothing next week.

 

Appendix:

 

Results observed in the previous season are tabulated below.�

 

 

Regular season 2002

Winning Factor (WF)

Total yards rushing

168-67-5

1.40

TOP

176-63-1

1.47

100 yard rushers

84-37

1.39

>/= +2 Takeaways

107-13

1.78

YPA

186-48-6

1.55

 

Like this? Share it with friends: