Phantom's Phearless Phorecast

Phantom�s Phearless Phorecast:

Last year, the Steelers played 7 regular season games against teams that got to the playoffs.� They were 4-2-1 in those contests, beating Cleveland (2x), T-Bay and Indy while dropping to Oakland and Tennessee.� We all remember the Atlanta game.

This season, they will face 5 graduates of last year�s playoff rounds.� That�s 6 games including Cleveland, Tennessee, NYJ, Oakland and San Francisco.� Of course, we all understand that so-called strength of schedule calculations project from last year�s results even if those mean little in today�s Not-for-Long.� Teams rise, teams fall; teams that get hot at the end of the trailing season continue that trend.� Old teams get older and shit happens, as for example, no one can now consider the Jets a playoff caliber squad.� Illustrating those other verities, Kansas City and St. Louis generally are considered rising teams; Oakland and San Francisco may be on the decline; Seattle was hot at the end and, as mentioned, the Jets are wrecked.

For any team, there are some underlying structural deficiencies and, here, none is so salient as the Steelers� problems defending the pass. Well, there�s the run game behind that beat-up O-line too but leaving that, consider that the 2002 PS were 2-5-1 in games when they allowed 30 or more points.� Not good though on the plus side, they were 2-3-1 once T-Max got the reins.� Figure 50% (or 1 game under that) this year then, off the following table, you�ve got:

There are (9) games in the first two columns.� All those teams in the first group have very good O-sides, and highly suspect defenses; in any given game, they�ll get 30, and give 30.� Statistically, the Browns were down low on both sides but that was the Couch Browns, not the Holcombe Browns.� We can expect Cleveland to run their 4-wide effectively (and for William Greene to damage some teams out of that set), as we can expect their defense will have a tough time stopping much of anything.� Steve McNair returns in Tennessee and that�s trouble here in River City; on the upside, the Titan DT rotation is depleted and they lost their NCB, Donald Mitchell.� So, figure 9 shoot-outs with +30 per side and, say, a 4-5 mark for the B&G.�

If the Steelers go 7-0 in the remaining games, they�re 11-5 and, probably, they�ve got their first round bye.� Of course, that�s not likely, as we must consider the Opening Day Slop Factor, the Curse of the Returning Assistant and the annual Bad Loss.� Off that, you�re looking at defeat against Baltimore early, Cincinnati late with the bad blow coming against one of Arizona, NYJ or San Diego.� In this worst case, the PS finishes 4-3 within this vector, and 8-8 overall.��

11-5 at best and 8-8 at worst; that�s not much of a prophecy so, narrowing the field towards the usual 10-6:

• If only because you can�t lose them all, the Steelers will win a slop-a-thon in their opener.
• Marvin Lewis will get one, probably here at the tail of those WC trips.
• The Jets are done; the bad loss will be Arizona or San Diego.� Let�s say, Lorenzo Neal leads LT to about 185 against the Steeler nickel as the PS blows a must-have late.

Okay, 5-2 in the last set; now, to get to the coveted 10-6, the PS must win 5 of 9 shootouts, rather than 4.� That is doable; after all, T-Max directed them to wins in two of their final three late last season.� If the PS are a +.500 shoot-out team, they�ll advance; if not, not.� Well:

• They�ve beaten the Browns 6 straight; 8 isn�t in the cards but they should split against Cleveland.
• The Rams must start scrubs at the corners; it�s a festival night in Pittsburgh as the PS put down St. Louis.
• Monday Night in SF, that�s 3.
• Oakland is just too old; they�ll be done by Week 14 and yeah, I know they weren�t last year.

That�s 4 wins for 9 and x; of those 4 games remaining, well, it�s too much to expect the PS to beat the Rams, Raiders and Titans at home so, Maximus McNair rides again leaving KC, Denver and Seattle as the pivotal contests.� I don�t see the Steelers winning both on the Left Coast; that leaves KC and Denver.� Of those, KC has a very good O-line and Denver does not.� To stop the pass, the Steelers must get pressure because, God knows, their DB can�t cover.� On form, they can get on Plummer but not Trent Greene.� Turnovers off that pressure at 5200 feet must factor for the Steelers to steal one at the Continental Divide.

There�s your 10-6; leaving the splits vs. Cincinnati and Cleveland, that�s 4-2 on the road and 4-2 at home. Overall, 4-2 in division, 1-1 against other AFC divisional champs (excluding Oakland), 2-2 against the AFC West and 3-1 against the NFC West.�� Doable?� Well, maybe, but this depends entirely on Maddox remaining upright and functional throughout the season.� That depends on the O-line; that is, it depends on a unit with four question marks (LT, OC, RG and RT).� So, you take that 10-6, subtract whichever O-line positions come up short, and there�s your final record.� With T-Max, 10-6; without him, something to the south.�