Week 13 in Review

December 05, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Total yards rushing

Long time readers here may be familiar with our Week in Review feature.� This work is stat-focused with twin intent, to identify those components that contribute to winning football and to find some means of evaluating those items� relative weight.�

Week 13 in Review:

	Previous Total	This Week	Year to date	WF to date	Teams that won this category but lost their game
3^rd down conversions	122-50-4	10-6	132-56-4	1.45	Steelers, Colts, Titans, Falcons, Vikes and Raiders.
TOP	115-60-1	11-5	126-65-1	1.38	Steelers, Colts, Panthers Niners and Vikes.
Total Yards Offense	110-60-6	� 8-8	118-68-6	1.32	Steelers, Titans, Pack, Falcons, Panthers, Vikes, Skins and Bolts.
Rushing Attempts	127-39-10	12-3-1	139-42-11	1.57	Colts, Niners and Vikes. (Steelers/Bengals tie)
YPA	120-48-2	11-5	131-53-2	1.43	Pack, Panthers, Skins, Bolts and Raiders.
+2 Sacks	�� 64-20	� 4-2	� 68-22	1.51	Falcons and Cards
* Red Zone (Efficiency)	�� 85-46	� 7-1	� 92-46	1.33	Pack.
* Red Zone (Trips)	102-27�	� 8-2	110-29	1.58	Steelers and Falcons
Takeaways (>/=+2)	� 70-6	10-0	� 80-6	1.86
Takeaways (+1 only)	� 35-22	� 2-2	� 37-24	1.21	Colts and Panthers

Red zone stats for Week 12 were not available.

Note:� The index figure, WF (winning factor) is calculated as # wins/0.5 total games in category, ties are counted as � wins; WF figures range between 1.0 and 2.0.� See the article, 5 Weeks in Review (October 2003), for various caveats concerning the categories posted above.

Coulda shoulda, teams that found a way to lose:

The Steelers had a margin in TY and TOP, had 23 first downs (18 passing) but were (-5) in sacks and (-2) in takeaways.� So did their playoff aspiration expire.

In the last minute, Indy had first and goal inside the Pat 5.� However, their short yardage back (James Mungro), their lead FB (Deltron Smith) and their 2^nd TE (Dallas Clark) all had been injured earlier in the game; two plunges stuffed, one bad fade attempt and great play by Willie McGinest snuffed the Colts.

The Titans had their chances but, with McNair hobbling, they blew their tilt with the Jets.� Key play: Herm Edwards� challenge, which overturned a Titan EZ INT.

The Pack had run over several previous foes but Detroit stopped that rush game cold.� For the second consecutive week, Brett Favre threw 3 picks.� Overall, the Lions were +4 in takes and that was plenty, as usual.

Panther K John Kasay missed 3 FG and an extra point in a 9-point loss.� A week previously, Kasay (normally highly reliable) had missed a couple more.�

Niner QB Jeff Garcia returned but tossed 4 picks and was otherwise highly ineffective.� Considering that SF has Terrell Owens, Julian Peterson, Ahmad Plummer, Jeff Ulbrich and Jason Webster up for FA this winter, we might conclude that Tim Rattay is the QB of their future, short term anyway.� Coach Erickson feels otherwise; reportedly, Garcia will be under center again next week.

The Skins had a nice yardage advantage over NO but that was more than negated by 120 penalty yards against.

Against the Rams, the Vikes had 37:37 TOP and 465 yards total offense; however, they gave up 8 sacks and permitted 11.6 YPA against.�

Teams on the rise (?):

The four teams previously highlighted here have gone 1-3 in the week following.� Last week, the Pack�s run game was featured but, on Thanksgiving Day, the Lions limited GB to 50-odd yards rushing.� Lifting the TOTR curse in observation of the holiday season, consider this, the wisdom of Lion safety Corey Harris who, after that game, said:

(Stopping the run)��was the key to this game.� I don�t care if you�re Brett Favre, Dan Marino or John Elway.� If your team can�t run, you�re in trouble.�

As we�ve seen�

State of the Steelers:� At best, or at worst depending on how you value the (uncertain) future, the Steelers now can finish 8-8.� Over a span of seasons, only one 8-8 team has made the playoffs; that being the �85 Kosar Browns.� Sure, three games back with four to go, the PS have some mathematical chance but, c�mon, this is not now, nor has it been at any point this season, a playoff caliber team.� That so, the future is now; for sure, those players with some remote chance of making the roster next season should be getting playing time now and from here in.�

In fact, that�s been going on for a while; the young DB have been getting time, those young O-linemen that still are healthy have too.� Not so at RB though, not so for Zo.� Questioned on this at his weekly (or weakly) press conference, Coach Cowher evoked some notion of �carry-over�; that is, also-ran teams that finish strong one year may carry some momentum forward and then contend the next.� Well, there are some recent examples to support Mr. Cowher�s point:

In 2002, Carolina won 4 of 5 to finish 7-9.� At 8-4, the Panthers lead the NFC South this season.

In 2002, the Seahawks opened 1-5 but then got right and won their final 3.� At 8-4, the 2003 Seahawks are 2^nd in the NFC West.�

In 2002, the Vikings won their final 3 to close 6-10.� At 7-5, they are first in the NFC North this season.

However, there are other cases; here are some teams that are in it this season, though they closed weak and finished out of the playoffs last year:

In 2002, Miami was a shoo-in at 9-5; however, they dropped their final 2 to finish out of the money.� At 8-4, they�re in contention again this year.

In 2002, the defending world champion Pats were in it at 8-5.� However, they dropped 2 of their final 3 and were nipped by Cleveland for the final WC slot.� The Pats are back; at 10-2, they top the AFC East.

In 2002, Denver dropped 4 of their final 6 to finish 9-7 and out; at 7-5, they�re contending for a wildcard berth this season.

In 2002, St. Louis dropped 4 of their final 6 to finish 7-9; at 9-3, they top the NFC West this season.

KC, which is 11-1 this year, finished 8-8 last.� They were 4-4 in the 1^st half and 4-4 in the 2^nd.� Closer to home:

In 2002, the Ravens dropped 3 of their final 4 to finish 7-9.� They�re co-leaders in the AFC North this year.

In 2002, the Bengals went 2-14; they were 1-7 in the 1^st half and 1-7 in the 2^nd.� They�re tied with the Ravens.

So, we do have also-rans who finished last season strong and are contenders this year; that�s Mr. Cowher�s model but, you know, there are about twice as many also-rans last that then finished weak but now are in it.� Also, there�s the inverse: 2002 playoff teams that finished strong but used that as a springboard simply to bellyflop this season:

Oakland closed 7-1 in 2002.� They are 3-9 this season.

Like the Carolina Panthers, the NYG closed 2002 winning 4 of their final 5.� They are 4-8 this season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers won 5 of their final 6 to finish 10-5-1.� They are 4-8 this season.

Then there are the Jets and Falcons, two teams that closed fast in 2002 but had their 2003 season wrecked by injury.� In sum, it�s called Not-For-Long for a reason; that is, there is little carryover from year to year.� Coach Cowher may believe what he said but that doesn�t make it so.� Here�s what we do know:

This team is not good on either side of the ball.

Younger players may or may not improve with experience but for damn sure veterans like Bettis, Gildon and Washington will not.� �

Here are a couple questions, maybe for next week�s PC?

What�s the carryover value of winning with players that won�t be back in 2004?� That includes, or should include, nearly every C$3 player on this team.

If those players remain in the teams� plans, well, why?� They didn�t win out in 2001; it�s highly unlikely that they�ll do so 3 seasons on.

Steeler Index:�

The Steelers are 2-4 with Zereoue starting and they are 2-4 with Bettis starting.� Which player gives them their best chance to win?�

As a team, the Steelers have rushed for 1024 yards.� Around the league, 9 individuals have rushed for more; Travis Henry, who has played with a cracked fibula for a couple of weeks, is just back, at 970.

At present, the Bus is126 yards behind Thurman Thomas on the all-time rush yards list.� Bettis is averaging 3.2 YPC this season so we�re talking 40 more carries. He can accomplish that in backup duty over the next 4 games and, considering that the Steelers currently project to be in need of a RT, an OC, a couple CB, a couple DE and a RB for 2004 (and are rumored to be looking at some franchise QB), don�t you think it would be a good idea to find out now whether or not they�ve got their RB?

By the numbers, here are the Bus�s 100-yard games from �96 through the current season:� 10, 11, 6, 2, 7, 5, 1 and none.� See a pattern?� Here ya go: the Bus had 21 100-yard games in �96 and �97 combined; he�s totaled 21 in the following 6 seasons.� In fairness, it should be acknowledged that the PS had an O-line in at most 5 seasons: �96, �97, �00, �01 and �02.� Still, that�s 10, 11, 7, 5 and 1, which is the same pattern.

The Steelers have committed 5.558M in 2004 sal cap dollars to 3 TE who have combined for 21 receptions for 215 yards and 2 TD.� Elsewhere around the league, TE do contribute in the RZ; here, 3 players, 1 TD.� Cutting both Breuner and Reimersma ASAP would clear 2.06M from the 2004 books.�

At 5.104M, Alan Faneca is #1 on the 2004 Steeler cap cash parade.� Faneca is a top tier player but the next five could get scratched:

Player	2004 cap hit ($M)	Hit if cut or traded prior to June 1, 2004	Cap cash cleared ($M)
Chad Scott	4.985	2.700	2.285
Jeff Hartings	4.978	3.685	1.293
Jason Gildon	4.949	3.897	1.052
Dewayne Washington	4.800	2.100	2.700
Jerome Bettis	4.757	3.000	1.757
			9.087

Note: Sal cap figures are lifted from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, 24 October 2002 and checked against those on the fan site burghsportsguys where No Limit keeps an exceptional ledger.� Special thanks to NL for his work, as appropriated above and, not from nothing, cutting Oliver Ross would clear about 1.75M

It�s worth noting that the two top cap clearances come with moving Scott and Washington.� Just for laughs, here are production figures (through 12 games) per NFL.com for a number of 2003 rook DB:

Player	Tackles	Forced fumbles	INT	PD	Remarks
CB Terence Newman, 1.05	51	0	1	14
CB Marcus Trufant, 1.11	66	0	1	15
CB Sammy Davis, 1.30	52	0	2	� 7	2 picks, 6 PD in past 7 games
CB Charles Tillman, 2.35	52	1	3	� 6	Moved in as a starter in game 4, developing fast.
CB/FS Eugene Wilson, 2.36	48	0	3	� 5
FS/CB Rashean Mathis, 2.39	59	0	2	� 6	Small school player but started from Day 1.
SS Ken Hamlin, 2.42	76	1	1	� 6	Started fast, has faded some.
SS Bryan Scott, 2.55	42	3	1	� 3	Opened on ST and in packages, had big impact in 2 games as a SS, then got dinged.
SS Mike Doss, 2.58	82	1	1	� 1	Lost in space.

By way of reference, Chad Scott�s numbers are 55, 1, 3 and 10.� Washington�s are 46, 0, 0 and 3.� Note that only the top 2 rooks have defended more passes than Scott.� This suggests that your could-be lockdown guys are early or not at all.� However, a range of 2^nd round rooks has made contributions roughly similar to Scott�s this season.� This suggests that some (potentially) contributing rook DB will be available when the Steelers draft in the 2^nd round next spring; players drafted 2.40 or so will make something around 700K so, you know, do the math.� As for Washington, well, he�s past it for sure but in tribute to the man, who has been a class act if not a Pro Bowl player, consider these numbers from �98, his first with the PS: 79 T, 5 INT, 34 PD.�� Washington came in as a 25-year old Contract 2 FA and certainly did contribute in his term here.

Last week, Tommy Maddox was one of three QB to throw for 300 yards or more.� The others were Dauntae Culpepper and Matt Hasselbeck.� Seattle won but both the Steelers and Vikings lost.

That was Maddox�s 4^th 300-yard game of the season.� One other Steeler QB has accomplished that single season feat; that was NOD in 1995, the Steelers� last appearance in the Super Bowl.� That year, the Steelers went 2-2 when NOD got 300, this year, the Steelers have achieved 0-4 when Maddox did the same. It�s noteworthy that, after the �95 season, NOD went into FA and received what was then the league�s biggest deal for that position; Maddox�s compensation (present and future) has been discussed ad nauseum.��

Teams that throw for 300 yards generally get beat because, generally, they�re throwing from behind.� For example, last week Culpepper had 47 pass attempts, Maddox 42; Hasselbeck, whose team won, had just 35.� In NOD�s big games in �95, he threw 52, 52, 31 and 55 times; the Steelers won the �31� game and one other.� As for Maddox, well, this year 47, 47, 44 and 42; last season, 41 (+400 yards vs. Atlanta) and 57 (vs. Houston).� YPA is the number; to get to 300 yards within a balanced attack, you�re really looking for something around 8.6 YPA and up (say, 33/300 or 9.09).� In general, 7.0 YPA is more than good enough but, if 300 yards describes an extraordinary game, then you�ve got to have an extraordinary YPA.� More proof?� Well, there are twelve 300 games noted in #8 and #9 above.� Overall, the 300 Club W/L mark is 3-8-1 but of those games where the QB had 30-some attempts, that mark is 2-0.� Maddox did +10 YPA in 41 attempts in the tie with Atlanta last season so, maybe, 42 attempts (just over 7.0 YPA) is the drop-dead mark.�� With 42 pass attempts, to be even 60/40 pass/run, a team would need 70 plays in any game, which is a bit over average.� In the games studied here, 42 or past, the 300 Club W/L mark is 1-7.

At present, the Steelers are slotted to draft 6^th in the 1^st round (1.06).� In each of the past four drafts, DT have been taken at that spot (Corey Simon, Richard Seymour, Ryan Simms and Jon Sullivan).� In five of the past six drafts, QB were taken #1 overall (Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, (Courtney Brown), Michael Vick, David Carr and Carson Palmer).� In the next four games, the Steelers play 2 of 5 teams now ahead of them in the April lottery so, if you�re an Eli Manning guy, you know where your interest lies.

Next Opponent:

Not-For-Long, reprise:� Based on their finish in 2002, the Steelers are playing a first place schedule.� That includes the NYJ who are 5-7 and the Titans, who are maintaining at 9-3.� Other 2002 1^st place squads on this season�s itinerary include the Niners who are 5-7 and this week�s opponent, the Raiders, who are 3-9.�

This is the 2^nd of 3 Eli Manning Bowls; the Steelers won (or lost) the first against Arizona; as noted, the Raiders and Bolts remain.

Specific to the Oakland squad:

They are the oldest team in the league and the most penalized.� Not from nothing, last week, HC Bill Callahan referred to them as the �dumbest team in football.�

The Raiders are down to their 3^rd QB, Rich Mirer, who was the 2^nd player taken in �93, just behind Drew Bledsoe.� However, these Steelers have made a number of back-up QB look like world-beaters including: Tim Couch, Mark Bulger and Tim Rattay.� On the plus side, they did dominate Steve Beuerlein and former backup Kelly Holcombe.� Mirer has been the starter for 5 games now; throughout, the Raiders have tried to run the ball and, when they were successful doing so, they were in it but if not, not.� At this point, Mirer is somewhere in the considerable range between Beuerlein and Bulger; considering he�s tossed 2 TD in 127 attempts, he�s not going to be a difference-maker this weekend.

Charlie Garner, Steeler killer is banged up some; the Raiders have been going with Tyrone Wheatley who has had 82 carries in the past 5 games.� Wheatley is the kind of straight ahead back that the Steeler D is designed to counter.� Justin Fargas was going to be Oakland�s home run threat but he�s home with a broken leg.

Jerry Porter is the Raiders deep threat; after missing 5 games, he�s back but, with 4 catches per game, he�s not doing so such much.

The Raider defense is T-30 in PD with 44; although they do have 12 INT, you�ve got to believe the Steelers can get airborne against that group.� However, Charles Woodson is returning to form; more than likely, he�ll be assigned to take Spike out of the game.� That�s a problem; over the past few weeks, Burress has had: 1, 5, 1, 5, 2 and 8 receptions.�� On form, it�s time for another down week; if that happens, the PS don�t figure to move the chains.�

Even behind the Steelers� patched together O-line, Maddox should have time; the Raiders have just 18 sacks this season.

�

Appendix:

Results observed in the previous season are tabulated below.�

	Regular season 2002	Winning Factor (WF)
Total yards rushing	168-67-5	1.40
TOP	176-63-1	1.47
100 yard rushers	84-37	1.39
>/= +2 Takeaways	107-13	1.78
YPA	186-48-6	1.55

Like this? Share it with friends:

Week 13 in Review

December 05, 2003 by Steel Phantom

YPA

Cap cash cleared