Stillers
Offseason Outlook -- Feb '03
This
annual offseason outlook is a thorough examination of the team's status and
stance as one season ends and another beckons. It's inherently intended to be
thorough, and wide in breadth & scope. This isn't a USA Today,
5-sentence-glossover that you often see in various magazines, newspapers, and
so-called in-depth or insider Steeler web sites. Rather, it's a fairly long
read, but I believe it'll be well worth your time.� (Click here
to read last year's Offseason Outlook.)
The
cornerstone of last year's Offseason Outlook was comprised of two key
essentials.
- The temptation to stand pat
- Needs assessment for the '02
season
Last
February�s concern about standing pat turned out to be a grim premonition of
things to come.� Obviously, the
French-like willingness to stand pat and do nothing to upgrade the roster was a
horrific mistake that became accentuated with yet another meek bow-out in the
playoffs.� The Stillers totally ignored
the veteran market in terms of upgrading a single position on the entire
roster.� That�s right -- not even 1
position was upgraded by a veteran acquisition last offseason.� And as I said last year at this time, if
you want to win the big trophy, you cannot stand pat while the rest of your
opponents are re-arming, re-tooling, and re-loading.� Tampa did just that, adding Dilger,
Jurevicious, and Pitman to an already talented team, and when the dust settled,
they were hosting the Lombardi Trophy.�
The Stillers sat fallow, and for their effort -- or lack thereof -- they
were rewarded with another rude playoff dismissal.�
This
year's offseason keys are as follows:
���� 1.�
Make the hard decisions
���� 2.�
Upgrade, upgrade, upgrade
���� 3.�
Needs assessments for the �03 season
Last
spring, the Stillers pussyfooted around, and failed miserably in making the
�hard decisions�.� A key tenant of good
management is making the right choice, no matter how hard it might be.� So it was for the Stillers, who had the
once-in-a-blue-moon opportunity with the expansion draft to expose some
overpaid players and rid themselves of a sal-cap albatross or two.� Before that expansion draft, I had recommended these
players for inclusion on the �exposed list�: Bettis, Bruener, Duffy, Combs,
and Flowers.� The inclusion of Flowers,
and especially Bruener and Bettis, was met with a host of guffaws, whines, and
babble.� �How can you recommend to get
rid of Bruener and Bettis?�� No way can
the Steelers compete without these two!�, the cries went.� The Stillers then went through the vast
majority of the season, as well as virtually all of the playoffs, without either
of these two cap-wasting clods.��
Flowers �led the way� in feeble futility and shoddy pass coverage, which
greatly led to the team�s demise in the playoffs.� The Stillers had the perfect opportunity to cut ties with
over-paid oafs, and then use the recouped money to improve.� Instead, the team got soft, nostalgic, and
timid, and instead of making the hard, but certainly correct, decisions, they
wimped out and clutched onto this trio like a baby doll.�
As
history has taught us time and time again, those who fail to learn from
their mistakes, are doomed to repeat them again.� The Stillers have a chance to cut the fat and improve this team,
and the fat cutting should include some or all of the following:
- Bruener:�
The poster boy for what ails this front office and what prevents this
team from ever making the leap to the next level.� Sure enough, we�ll here cries and bellyaching about �He�s harping
too much on Bruener.��� Sorry, this
isn�t a harping.� This is stating what
should be done, and in this case, Bruener should be lauded for his years of
service and then politely sent packing.�
He�s coming off his 4th (fourth) season-ending injury, yet management
and fans continue to cling to the absurd hope that Bruener is as swift and fleet-footed
as ever.� Fact is, he�s not. �And at cap hits of $2.6M, $2.99M, 2.99M, and
$3.6M, there�s far too much money being lavished on someone who provides far
too little and can easily be replaced at a fraction of the cost.� There will be a �hit� if Bruener is cut, but
the savings far outweigh the hit.� More
importantly, the chance to upgrade this position is tremendous, because,
as long as Bruener is employed in Pittsburgh, the Stillers are doomed to having
him start and contribute 18 catches per season at a whopping 8 yards a
grab.�
- Bettis:�
It�s time to move on and put the Fat Back onto the waiver wire.� Sure, the Fatboy can still contribute
elsewhere in the league.� However, for
what he consumes of the salary cap -- not to mention the consumption at the
supper table -- it�s far too much for an injury prone (the past 2 seasons),
totally one-dimensional back.�
Cap hits the next 4 seasons of $3.9M, $4.7M, $5.6M, and $6.5M demand
that The Doughboy be sent packing.�
Could I live with the Rotund Running Back accepting a pay-cut with a
re-done deal?� Sure, but that inherently
has some problems.� For one, a fairly
vaunted cap hit might still loom in the future, depending on the deal.� Equally important, retaining the Bloated
Belly-Back would ensure another season of slow, plodding, one-dimensionality,
which is something that this diversified offense does not need.� Lastly, Bettis ties up funding that would
far better be served addressing critical needs, especially in the secondary.�
- Alexander:�
Brent�s cap hit the next 2 years is fairly small -- $960K and
$1.1M.� However, Brent�s play was
absolutely horrible in �02, and there�s no reason at all to believe it will be
any better in 2003.� This is a player
who has no potential and was a primary weak link this past season.� Why on earth would anyone want to keep him
around?
- Gildon:�
Thanks to one of the very worst contracts in Pittsburgh sports history
-- and this includes the one given to outfielder Derek Bell -- the Stillers are
now stuck with a cap-eating albatross roughly the size of Rhode Island.� His outlandish, outrageous contract has huge
cap hits through 2006, to include a whopper of a hit at nearly $7M in �06.� The largesse of this contract -- and the $6M
bonus -- basically precludes the outright release of The Gilded Dong, but that
does not preclude the team from peddling GilDong around the league to a team
who might be fooled by his sack stats, along with an agreement from GilDong�s
agent for some restructuring.� A trade
of GilDong for any mere 5th round pick would make the trade of $24 worth of
trinkets for Manhattan look meager in comparison.� Often forgotten during the team�s defensive malaise in �02, was
the fact that GilDong was supposedly the defensive captain and �leader�.� Defenders in this type of leadership
position are supposed to lead by example with hard-hitting,
mean-spirited, blood-thirsty, always-hustling-like-a-demon kind of play.� GilDong gave this team none of that.� In fact, he never has, and obviously never
will.� Severing ties with this caphog
and overly poor leader would instantly improve morale, intensity, and the
overall effectiveness of this defense.���
- Kimo:� Of
all the players I�d recommend for severance, this is the one that I�d like to
have back, albeit at a reduced salary.�
Kimo doesn�t have an exorbitant cap hit like the �Big 3� above (Bettis,
Bruener, and Gildon) but he�s got a pretty high dollar cost and is getting
along in years.� Cap hits of $2.6M,
$2.9M, and $2.6M the next 3 years make Kimo a pricey proposition.� I�d like to cut him and then re-sign him to
a lower-cost one or 2-year deal.�
- Stewart:�
Obviously, he�s a goner.� Just a
matter if when, not if.�
To
be sure, these are all �hard� decisions.�
Decisions like this always are.�
And it�s surely �harder� when you�re talking about Billy Cowher�s most
favorite players, notably Bruener, Bettis, and Gildon, all of whom Cowher loves
like his own child.� Those of us in
management and leadership positions know full well that it�s more difficult to
make the �hard right� than the easier wrong.�
It�s entirely up to the Stillers to swallow pride, love, charity, and
hospitality if they want to improve this team in this day of the salary
cap.� And because of the tight fit
against the ceiling of the salary cap, a team cannot upgrade unless it either
drafts some outstanding players, or it pares away overly pricey fat and frees
up money that can be used to procure better players.�� Because the NFL draft rewards the poor teams and punishes the
teams with better records, the Stillers cannot throw all their hope into the
draft.� Without the hard decisions, you
end up losing out to opportunity costs.�
With only so much money, you can�t buy an apple if you�ve already spent
money on a candy bar.� You can�t sign a top-notch
D-back if you�re frittering money away on a glorified 3rd tackle.� You can�t afford to upgrade your house, or
your car, or your football roster, if you�ve got money tied up in frivolous
other ventures that give you little or no return.� Making the hard decisions -- if they are, in fact, made -- serves
as the necessary foundation for UPGRADES.�
Unless a team is well under the sal cap, upgrades cannot happen until
hard decisions are made and expensive fat is trimmed from the budget.�
Upgrades
are needed at the following positions, in order to �desperation�:�
�- Safety:�
I�d written volumes last year about my concerns over both safety spots,
only to fall on deaf ears.� The team is
now painted into a corner, and needs such massive upgrading at safety that the
rebuilding of the Word Trade Center seems easy in comparison.� Flowers should obviously not be signed as a
UFA, and Brent should be ordered to move on to his life�s work.� This leaves talented but injury prone Mike
Logan, along with talented but totally untested 2nd-year man Chris Hope.� Because top-flight safeties like Darius and
T. Jones have been given the franchise tag, the well of available veteran safeties
is fairly barren and potentially pricey.�
Nonetheless, every attempt must be made to upgrade the safety spot by
acquiring a solid veteran.��
-
CB:� I�m not ready to run either
starting CB (Scott or Washington) out of town on a rail, but �02 showed us that
big, oft-clumsy, bootfooted CBs who don�t bump a receiver from time to time,
are ripe for the beating and constant abuse.�
And because every opponent will inevitably run some kind of spread
formation against the Stillers, the team must add a veteran cover-corner to
work with Townsend in the dime defense.�
-
TE:� It�s high time this team snapped
out of its 8 (eight) year funk of ostrich-like indifference to the TE
spot.� Teams continually shred the
Stillers with their TE, yet the Stillers continue to blindly plod along with
Mr. Stonefoot, Mark Bruener, as their starting TE.� Around the NFL, TEs are more than blocking dummies; on many
teams, they are actually dangerous weapons that must be reckoned with.� It�s high time the Stillers look at getting
some athleticism and playmaking ability in this spot.� If Bruener, who is coming off his fourth season-ending
injury, is retained, then that alone will tell you all you need to know about
this team�s sincerity in upgrading the team this offseason.��
-
Backup QB:� I�m perfectly content to
have Batch serve as the chief backup.�
However, if Batch is not re-signed, the backing up of the most critical
position in all of football becomes a full-blown crisis.� And because Maddox is so slow and static on
the pocket, he�s ripe to take some brutal hits and miss some playing time.� The odds of Maddox remaining healthy for all
16 games and the playoffs, are roughly equivalent to the odds of Jerome Bettis
beating Lee Mays in the 100-yard dash.�
If Batch departs, a veteran backup must be signed, and unlike
Batch last summer, signed soon enough so that he can learn the offense.�
-
DE:� Especially if Kimo is cut and not
re-signed, the depth and long-term outlook at this position is not rosy.� Bailey is a solid player, although his
run-stuffing is a bit weak.� No depth
behind Bailey and Smitty exists at all.�
Keisel chipped in nicely on spec teams, but is grossly undersized to
sustain the rigors of a 3-4 DE.� An
upgrade to either the starting RDE, or the depth at DE, would be
advisable.�
Needs
Assessment:
Offense:� As noted above, backup QB and TE need an
upgrade.� The concern on the backup QB
spot will be addressed if Batch is re-signed, but if not, watch out for a
disaster.� Tackle is a large problem,
especially if Gandy departs.� One option
is to move Marvel Smith to LT and allow Ross, Nkwenti, and possibly Vincent to
fight for the job.� Smith, who is prone
to lapses of outright sloth and lethargy, still worries me, especially if he�s
tasked to protect the blind side of the slowest QB in pro football.� I�ve mentioned this several times, and will
do so again: At his exorbitant salary, and for his overt lack of receiving
skills combined with supposedly God-like blocking skills, Mark �Hands of Stone�
Bruener should be given a look at playing tackle.�� Running back doesn�t need an upgrade right now, but if Bettis is
let go, the team needs to look at a mid-round pick to add depth.� Amoz is decent, but he�s never going to be
the next Marshal Faulk.� Fu is a nice
battering ram, but has proven to be far too fragile and brittle.� Haynes was rather unimpressive.� Because of the Stllers long-standing ability
to pluck good RB talent in the middle rounds (see Foster, Bam, Leroy Thomson,
Amoz, et al), I�m perfectly willing to wait until round 3 or 4 and snare a back
who might provide depth in �03 and then perhaps challenge for the starting job
in �04.� WR is not a concern right now,
but certainly depth could be addressed, especially if Mathis is not
re-signed.� In that regard, young WR Lee
Mays needs to get a long look in preseason.�
Kreider more than adequately fills the FB spot, but I�d like to get a
look at former WVU FB Wes Ours as a backup FB.�
The huge Mountaineer (at 284 pounds, almost as big as Bettis) was added
to the Stiller roster earlier in the offseason, and could provide some nice
depth at FB and H-Back.�
Defense:� At noted, the DL has some needs that should
be addressed; most notably depth at DE and depth behind NT C. Hampton.� ILB depth wouldn�t be a shabby idea.� Larry �The Thug� Foote is marginal and
Little Johnboy Fiala is a complete joke at ILB.� The secondary is such an obvious, monstrous need that I won�t
expound much more on that problem.�
Imagine an explorer trekking on foot though miles of desert sand, with
120-degree heat pounding on him all day.�
All he has is 1 pint of water remaining, and his lips are bone dry and
his entire body is parched, and he has to walk another 100 miles to the nearest
source of water.� Take his need for
water, and multiply it by 18, and that pretty much sums up the needs of this
secondary.�
Spec
teams:� There�s always room
for improvement on a Billy Cowher-coached special teams, although two lucky
finds last year significantly reduce the needs here.� Jeff Reed came off the unemployment line and booted FGs superbly.� Let�s just hope he suffers no sophomore
jinx.� Randle El made some boners on ST,
but overall gave the sagging return games some nice boosts.� Josh Miller ties up over $1M in cap hit in
each of the next four years, and in return provides rather mediocre
punting.� Cowher and the front office
are in love with Josh, however, so he�s not going anywhere any time soon.� A couple headhunting coverage-men --
preferably LBs and DBs with some speed -- wouldn�t be too bad of an idea.��
Coaching:
�The staff is reasonably set for
now.� 2003 might by Mularkey�s last
season, because the next go-round of NFL firings will probably open up a
head-coaching job for him.� Two obvious
weaknesses remain on this staff.� The
first is DC Tiny Tim Lewis.� He�s been
in the job for a few years now, and he�s done exactly nothing to impress or
inspire.� In fact, Lewis has been the
equivalent of a baby sitter, whose primary job is merely to make sure the kids
don�t kill each other and that the kids don�t make too much of a mess while the
parents enjoy a rare evening out on the town.�
Nothing more is really expected from the baby sitter, and nothing more
is apparently expected from Tiny Tim.�
The other weakness is obviously none other than head coach Billy
Cowher.� Despite any and all of the cap
maneuvering, shrewd drafting, and free agent signings, this team will not, and
cannot, seriously consider itself a Super Bowl contender with Little Billy at
the helm.� Sure, it can win the lowly
AFC North, and it can provide a stiff challenge in the playoffs, but realistically
speaking, that�s about it.� The Titanic
was a fantastic ship, perhaps the greatest of its kind ever built at that point
in time. It had the finest equipment, the finest crew, the finest accommodations
-- yet boneheaded, incompetent leadership allowed it to run into an iceberg and
sink.� So it goes with the Stillers, who
are certainly a very good team, complete with a deep, experienced roster
replete with talent, toughness, and playmaking.� However, like the Titanic, they suffer from such poor, incompetent
leadership such that neither a great ship nor a great team can overcome.� The largest and most immovable roadblock to
this team�s hopes of winning the Super Bowl, rests squarely on the shoulders of
Billy Cowher.�
Stillers
free agent outlook:
UFAs
Batch:� Make every attempt to re-sign.� Batch is capable, and has a year of this
offense under his belt.� Furthermore,
this year�s free agent QB crop is about as appetizing as the slop you see
parceled out to refugees in those UNICEF commercials.� Therefore, there isn�t any QB out there -- with the possible
exception of Plummer -- who is even marginally better than Batch, and obviously
none has the year under his belt with our WRs and our offense.�
Tuman:� Re-sign to a very moderate contract.� DNL -- Do Not Lavish.
Allred:� Offer the NFL minimum on a one year deal,
and not a penny more.
Battaglia:� Bid adieu and good luck.
Cushing:� Make an attempt to re-sign at the league
minimum.� Cushing is tough, hard-nosed,
and dependable, which is more than can be said for some players, even one of
the team captains.� Of course, because
no one in the NFL else seems to like Cushing, he is seemingly always only a
phone call away from reporting for duty when Bruener goes down with his annual
injury.�
Mathis:� Make every attempt to re-sign.� Mathis brings some good skill and attitude
to this offense, and gives us good depth in case of injury.�
Gandy:� By far the toughest UFA the Stillers have to
deal with.� Contrary to imbecilic
reports, Gandy did not have a poor �02 season.�
In fact, he had a rather solid season.�
Obviously, he�s getting long in the tooth, and in these times of the
cap, he cannot be lavished with a fatty, long-term deal.� Ideally, he and his agent will accept a 2 or
3 year deal of moderate money.� The
Stillers would be wise to remember the John Jackson fiasco.� Jackson was overpaid by San Diego, and the
Stillers were correct to not pay that kind of money.� However, after Jackson signed with SD, the Stillers stood by with
head up buttocks, and the resulting debacle on the O-line left the offense in
shambles.�
Jones:� Like Mathis, this is a player with a good
attitude and good backup skills.�
Unfortunately, he�s grossly miscast as an ILB, and as such, he�s the
classic case of pounding a square peg into a round hole.� At the veteran minimum, I could live with
the sure-tackling Jones being retained as a backup OLB, as well as a tutor to
help Jason GilDong (if retained) learn how to tackle at the proficiency of at
least the 11th grade level.�
Flowers:� Bid adieu and good luck.� Sit back and laugh at the feeble offers he
receives, but even after that occurs, do not re-sign.�
Rouen:� He had a chance to earn an invitation back
for camp, but punted with mediocrity in his short time in the �Burgh.� Cowher is in love with Josh Miller and Rouen
didn�t show enough to displace Cowher�s love of Miller.�
RFAs
(can be offered 3 tenders -- high, mid, and low -- all of which are
1-year deals.� Or, they can be re-signed
to a multi-year deal if the team is so inclined.) ��
Kreider:� Absolutely must be tendered with a �mid�
tender.� Some consideration should be
given to a multi-year deal, but DNL (Do Not Lavish).�
Clancy:� A riddle inside an enigma.� The Stillers reached when they drafted this
undersized NT.� In 3 seasons, he�s
gotten feeble amounts of PT, and last season spent most Sundays in street
clothes because of being deactivated.�
Offer the low tender and retain for depth.
Haggans:� Like Kreider, must be tendered with a mid
tender.� Haggans is a keeper and could
easily start at LOLB -- and perform admirably -- if the team ever cut the apron
strings with Jason GilDong.� A
moderately priced multi-year deal wouldn�t be a shabby idea, but given his lack
of leverage and the team�s cap challenges, it�s probably prudent to just go
with the 1-year tender.�
Poteat:� A player who arrived 3 years ago with some
promise, but has now regressed to the point of arena-ball quality.� I could live with a low tender, only because
the secondary is in such shambles and Poteat has never gotten to play more than
about 20 snaps at CB in 3 seasons combined.�
Exclusive
rights
Kurpeikis:� Do not sign under any circumstance, even if
the guy were willing to surreptitiously break union rules and accept less than
the NFL minimum.�
Vincent:� Just recently, the team shrewdly re-signed
Vincent to a 1-year deal of around $400K.�
This was a terrific deal that pleased me immensely.� Vincent is projected to be a road-grading
guard, but because of the youth and skill already at guard (Faneca, Simmons,
and even Okobi), combined with potentially gaping holes at tackle, I would
really like to get a look at Vincent at right tackle.� He�s got the size and frame to play tackle, and he seems to have
decent footwork.� As it stands now, he�s
destined to do little more than pick splinters out of his pants as a backup to
Faneca and Simmons, but he could be a diamond in the rough at tackle.� Seeing how there�s nothing to lose and much
to gain, the team needs to give him an opportunity at tackle at mini-camp and
training camp.�
(I'll
preview the Stillers draft outlook in a separate article in the near future.)
Still Mill and Stillers.com -- the
only nationally read coverage on the Pittsburgh Stillers that has accurately
predicted the how's and the why's of the past 3 Stiller playoff losses�