Steelers @ Saints, Game 4.
The Steelers had lost to (2) 2001 playoff teams before squeezing past the upward drifting Browns.� They are 1-2 against teams that are otherwise 6-2 combined.� The Saints had beaten (3) 2001 playoff teams (TB, GB and Chicago) before crumbling at Ford last weekend when faced with Joey Harrington and the suddenly mighty Lions.� NO is 3-0 against teams that are otherwise 8-1 and 0-1 against a team that is otherwise 0-3; they have given the Lions their only win while handing the Bucs and Pack their sole defeats. Quite obviously, there�s little chalk on the Saints.
In Haslett�s 2nd year in the Great EZ, his team reached the playoffs, knocking off the reigning champion Rams before bowing out.� Last year, the Saints started shakily and then quit altogether, folding to 7-9.� This past off-season, Ricky Williams, Joe Johnson, Leroi Glover and Willie Roaf blew town.� Shorn of four such stars, the Saints were consigned to the scrape-yard in most pre-season prognostications.� Those projections may yet prove true but, so far, the results have been dramatically different.�
Last year, before play started, the Saints were everyone�s darlings; the Steelers took that role this past spring.� The Saints flopped and subsequently sent (3) Pro Bowlers and a former 1st round pick packing.� The Steelers have splattered out of the gate; if they continue to play so far below expectations, it is highly likely that they will be radically re-casting their roster this winter.� That Gandy and Flowers are headed out seems certain; as for those with Pro Bowl credentials, well, Stewart heads the list of likely �migr�s at the moment, with Bettis and Gildon just off the pace.� From all appearances, the Bus has rusted through and Gildon, despite a very solid opener against the Pats, has been exposed, more than any Steeler defender this side of Brent Alexander, by the new paradigm of spread-the-base-and-gouge-the-dime that every opponent has practiced and that, so far, the Steelers have only partially countered.� �
It�s early yet; it is entirely possible that the Saints will crash due to a lack of veteran talent.� It is entirely possible that the Steeler captains will re-assert their leadership.� Yeah, there�s still time but, for sure, the clock is ticking.� The Saints need this game to re-gain the momentum they had established as much as to stay with the 3-1 Panthers and Bucs.� The Steelers need to get even so to move up from there.� Leaving any position-by-position analysis for others, here are a couple storylines I�ll be following:
Deuce vs. the Dime Line:� The Steelers are giving 4.8 yards per carry; most of that has come against the dime pack.� Deuce McAllister has rushed for 81/338/3 TD; he is 2nd on the team with 17 receptions, though at just 7.4 per catch.� McAllister is bigger and faster than either Garner or White, two backs who have embarrassed the Steelers this season.
Rime of the Ancient Receiver: �It is certain that the Saints will come with a single back set featuring McAllister with (3) WR and TE David Sloan.� The Steelers got a break when prize rookie wide-out Donte Stallworth scratched.� Stallworth is bigger and faster than any Steeler DB; with (4) TD in his first (4) games, he is within (1) of tying a long-term NFL mark ��Stallworth and Joe Horn provide the Saints twin deep threats, now, the Steelers have only to contend with one.�
Jake Reed replaced Stallworth in the 2nd half last week and had 2/40 yards, not bad, not epic either.� When the Steelers played the Raiders, they let antiques Jerry Rice and Tim Brown come off the LOS unimpeded. �Ridiculous since, even if they miss their jam, you�ve got to expect a 20-something CB to be able to run down a late-30 WR.� This week, the Steelers have to jam Jake often, if only to set up a blitz by their slot DB, Scott and/or Logan.� �
The other Saint receivers are TE David Sloan and WR Jerome Pathon. Both work underneath, so far, Pathon has had more effect with 15/153/3TD.� Sloan has just 5/71 and last week this x-Lion choked at Ford with 3-4 drops.� I think DT can handle Pathon in the spread and, while the Steelers haven�t dealt effectively with TE in years, Sloan is by no means state-of-the-art at the position.�
Mirror, mirror�� �Aaron Brooks is a QB in the Kordell Stewart mode.� However, Brooks is starting and Kordell is not.� Part of the reason may reside with the fact that Brooks is effective throwing on the move; containment will be key but with Porter dropped off and Bell on the sidelines, Farrior is the only LB likely to be up to the task.� The Steelers need to keep this man on the field; if they don�t, Brooks and McAllister will add substantially to their 3rd down woes. ��
The Thin Man:� When the Steelers fielded a uni-dimensional strong-run, poor-pass offense, they were easy to defend.� So far, form shows they have no running game; of 46 points scored over (3) games, (10) came in the hurry-up last week and (14) similarly late against the Pat or Raider prevents. �The points last week meant something, the previous did not; Maddox is starting because Maddox can run the spread in crunch-time and, from here on in, that�s what time it is.� In the best case, Tommy will get the Steelers air-borne; there is no reasonable prospect that they will run on Hand/Jackson.� That so, the Steeler O-side will be one-dimensional. �Whether that attack is enough remains to be seen.�
Bad to Worse:� The Steelers are last in the league with respect to field position following their KO.� That�s not so much a coverage issue as the fact that Petersen has kicked the ball with about the effect of a man whacking a shot put with a tennis racquet.�
Receiving KO, the Saints have established the worst field position in the league. They have taken (9) penalties receiving; purists may want to hit the head when the Steelers KO but slapstick-devotees ought to love it.
Players to watch:
Charles Grant replaces Willie Whitehead at DE for the Saints.� Grant was drafted in the 1st with the pick the �Fins gave for Williams.� Not huge but very fast, this former Bulldog has (4) T, (1) sack and (1) PD in limited duty.
Sedrick Hodge was a player I liked for the Steelers in �01.� He is an OLB with WR receiver speed.� HE didn�t play much last year but is starting now and has responded with (24) T including 1.5 stuffs.� This is a player who will only get better; however, he doesn�t figure against the spread.
Judgment:
I�m 3-0 betting against the Steelers this year but I�m laying out this week.� The Saints are entirely unpredictable; as for the B&G, they�ll take wing or flame out with Tommy.� I haven�t got a guess on the results but, given the Saints poor pass defense together with the Steelers insistence on the dime, I�d definitely take the over. �
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