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Week 12 in Review

November 25, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Total yards rushing

 

Long time readers here may be familiar with our Week in Review feature.� This work is stat-focused with twin intent, to identify those components that contribute to winning football and to find some means of evaluating those items� relative weight.�

 

Week 12 in Review:

 

 

Previous Total

This Week

Year to date

WF to date

Teams that won this category but lost their game

3rd down conversions

114-43-3

� 8-7-1

122-50-4

1.41

Cleveland, NO, Detroit, Denver, Oakland, NYG and Washington.

TOP

103-56-1

12-4

115-60-1

1.31

Cleveland, Jaxville, Oakland and Washington

Total Yards Offense

� 99-56-5

11-4-1

110-60-6

1.28

Cleveland, NO, Jaxville and Denver

Rushing Attempts

116-35-9

11-4-1

127-39-10

1.50

Carolina, Jaxville, Arizona and Oakland

YPA

110-48-2

10-6

120-48-2

1.38

Cleveland, Carolina, Denver, Arizona, San Diego and Atlanta

+2 Sacks

� 62-18

� 2-2

�� 64-20

1.52

Detroit and Arizona

Red Zone (Efficiency)

� 85-46

Unavailable

�� 85-46

1.30

 

Red Zone (Trips)

102-27

Unavailable

102-27�

1.58

 

Takeaways (>/=+2)

� 66-4

� 4-2

� 70-6

1.84

SF and Arizona

Takeaways (+1 only)

� 31-19

� 4-3

� 35-22

1.29

Texas, San Diego and Washington

 

Note:� The index figure, WF (winning factor) is calculated as # wins/0.5 total games in category, ties are counted as � wins; it should be apparent that WF figures range between 1.0 and 2.0.� See the article, 5 Weeks in Review (October 2003), for various caveats concerning the categories posted above.

 

Coulda shoulda, teams that found a way to lose:

 

An uncharacteristically poor week for the turnover indicator:

 

  • Brett Favre threw only 15 times but San Francisco came away with 3 INT; however, Green Bay ran over that light 49er front as 3 RB carried 48/243.�

 

  • �The Rams got out early but Arizona came back behind Anquan Bolden and a defense that both forced turnovers and sacked the QB.� Still, the Cards are the Cards; they can find a way to lose.� For sure, the Rams are living dangerously; St. Louis leads the league in turnovers (32) as Mark Bulger has thrown 10 INT in the past 4 games.� St. Louis has won 3 of those but that isn�t going to last.

 

  • Houston was +1 in takeaways but considering that the Pats ran 92 plays, that wasn�t nearly enough.

 

  • San Diego was +1 too; however Cincinnati had 225 on the ground, picking up 33 first downs in the process.

 

Otherwise:

 

  • Baltimore and Seattle were dead even in 3rd downs and total yards; both teams had 6 sacks.� After looking just awful last week, former Steeler QB Anthony Wright had 4 TD passes (nearly) offsetting 5 by Matt Hasselbeck.� However, some truly insane officiating handed the Ravens chance after chance and, ultimately, they did convert.

 

  • +5 in takeaways was barely enough for the Steelers to squeak by in Cleveland.

 

  • Minnesota got back on the plus side intercepting Detroit QB Joey Harrington 4 times.

 

Teams on the rise (?):

 

Last week I highlighted Carolina, Denver and Cincinnati.� Those teams were 1-2 last weekend so, maybe, this segment will become the equivalent of the SI cover curse.� Fortunately though, few will ever know so let�s consider the Green Bay Packers.� They have a shaky defense, their pass game is way down but they do run the ball.� Through 11 games, the Pack is averaging 173.5 yards per game, that�s very close to the great Steeler run game of 2001.� You know the drill: pound the ball, control the clock, and hide your defense.� Ultimately, that wasn�t enough here but, maybe the Pack can hold on until Favre�s thumb heals; if so, and if Green Bay somehow can get home field in the PO, look out.�

 

Steeler Index:�

 

  1. In Cleveland, Jerome Bettis had 93 yards on 24 carries.� That was his most productive game since 13 October 2002 when he rushed for 21/109 against Cincinnati.� The Bus went over 3000 career carries too; he is one of 5 RB to accomplish feat and, you know, regardless of the fact that Bettis is past it, that his contract is disproportional to his productivity, it remains true that this player does give all he has to give each game.� More broadly, that�s all we can ask of anyone, including ourselves.

 

  1. The Steelers ran for 109 yards Sunday, which is their #2 high game on the season; Game 3 against the Bengals, the PS rushed for 138 yards.� Maybe, that performance on the North Shore signifies some run game renaissance here; however, it�s worth noting that the NYG average 109.8 per game, which is 18th in the league, the Bears are 19th at 109.4.� This suggests that, at their near season best, the Steeler run game is a cut below mediocre.

 

  1. Coming out of the bye, Coach Cowher went to the Bus, presumably in order to establish ball control.� That hasn�t worked out as, since then, the PS has actually been on the downside in TOP.� In five games with Bettis as the starter, the Steelers have averaged just 27:08; that has reduced their season average to 29:55.

 

  1. One aspect of ball control is moving the chains.� In the past 5 games, the PS has just 73 first downs; their 3rd conversion rate is a pitiful 30% (20/67).� In 6 games prior to the break, they had 112 first downs (18.66 then vs. 14.60 per game since); however, their 3rd down conversion rate was just 33% (30/90).� What�s that last about?� Well, the PS does remain at the very bottom in converting 3rd and short.�

 

  1. Then too, the Steelers� success on 3rd down can be correlated with Spike�s production, or lack thereof.� In the past 5 games, Burress has had 1, 5, 1, 5 and 2 receptions.� In those, the Steelers have had 11, 19, 11, 21 and 11 first downs.�

 

  1. On the plus side, the Steelers are 3-1 with Marvel Smith, 1-6 without.�

 

  1. The Steeler RZ defense is coming on.� The league average for TD in the RZ is 54%; in stopping the Browns on 4 trips, the PS D-side rose to 19/34 on the season, or 56%.� Considering they started at 8/9 allowed, that�s good improvement.

 

  1. The Steelers had 5 takeaways last week; well, 3 really since 2 were unforced fumbles.� Still, other teams benefit similarly so, say, 5.� Anyway, Brent Alexander had two, a FR and INT.� God help us, Alexander now leads the team in turnovers converted with 4.� On the season, Chad Scott is credited with 3 INT and a FF; considering that one of his 8 PD created Gildon�s INT vs. Cincinnati, we might as well give Scott 5 takeaways created.� That leads the team, as would his (actual) 4.

 

  1. The Steelers defended (9) passes last week; that gives them 48 on the season, which is 25th in the NFL.� Of those, 19 came in two games, last week and Week 1 against first timer Kyle Boller.� Now, if the PS can defend 9 per game for the rest of the regular season, they will fall just short of their 2002 haul, 97.

 

  1. �Last week, Deshea Townsend had (3) PD, Aaron Smith had (2).� Each have (6) on the season, which is T-2 team wide.

 

  1. �Last season, the AFC North was widely maligned but (despite that) did place two teams in the playoffs.� Those were, of course, the Browns and out own PS.� This year, the AFC North has been widely maligned but at this writing, two teams are just a game behind the Fins for the final wildcard spot.� Those teams are, of course, the Bengals and Ravens; considering that Miami has begun their annual December swoon early, it�s possible that both AFC pretenders will eek in.

 

Next Opponent:

 

Since Week 3, when they fell to the Steelers to go 0-3, the Bengals have won 6 of 8, including 5 of their last 6.� There are several aspects to that performance:

 

  • Balance on offense:� the Bengals are 10th in total yards and 10th in scoring.� Yardage-wise, they are 11th in rushing and 11th in passing.

 

  • Discipline:� the Bengals have 584 penalty yards, their opponents 662.� In contrast, the Steelers have 767 penalty yards, their opponents 499.�

 

  • Cohesion:� the Bengals have a number of new starters on defense (2 DL, MLB and 2 DB), mainly mid-priced� FA veterans.� Normally that�s a recipe for disaster (as has been true in Cin-City for a number of previous FA-fueled overhauls) but these players have coalesced rapidly.� Improvement in the secondary play has been particularly dramatic; already, the Bengals have matched or exceed their 2002 marks in both PD and INT (not that those were so great).� Surprisingly, Tory James has been a difference-maker; a #2 CB throughout his career, James has stepped up this season with 3 INT and 15 PD. By way of comparison, three Steeler CB (Scott, Townsend and Washington) have accounted for 3 INT and 16 PD.�� Of note: James is in the fold for 4 years at 14.4M.�

 

Of course, HC Marvin Lewis is a D-side guru and his D-coordinator has imported the Philly style of attack defense, which has got to be a lot more fun to play than the PS standard read-don�t-react.� On the other side of the ball:

 

  • The Bengals have had a 100 rusher in 4 of their past 5 games, Rudi Johnson has three and Corey Dillon went over the century mark last week.

 

  • Jon Kitna, career journeyman, has a QB rating of 89.0; his previous high was 79.1.� Kitna has 19 TD against 9 INT; coming into this season, he had 75 TD and 81 INT.�

 

  • Chad Johnson is a #1 level WR; Peter Warrick is (finally) being properly used as a slot guy; the wildcard is Kelly Washington.� Washington has excellent size/speed but questionable health; however, though active for just 6 games this year, Washington has 16 receptions for 2 TD including 10 catches and both TD in his past 3 games.� If Washington is good to go, the Steelers best hope is to match resides with their rookie CB, Ike Taylor.

 

Good draft by Cincinnati last year:

 

  • 1st round pick and presumed franchise QB Carson Palmer is waiting in the wings.

 

  • Stud OG Eric Steinbach has started from day 1 and, in week 10, won GBN�s coveted rookie of the week award.

 

  • 3rd round pick Kelly Washington was profiled previously.

 

  • 4th round pick CB Dennis Weathersby was a potential 1st rounder last spring.� However, shot in a drive-by, Weathersby�s stock dropped sharply.� Presumably, he is healing up now; if he does develop as expected, the Bengals got a steal in round 4.

 

At present, the Bengals are getting comparable or better production than the Steelers from their rook crops; those rooks the Bengals have stockpiled (Palmer and Weathersby) project far more potential than their Steeler equivalents (St. Pierre and Jackson).� Add that Cincinnati has a two game lead and, while it�s tough to tell in the Not For Long, it certainly seems that the Bengals are rising, as the Steelers are not.�

 

In Cleveland, the PS played it close to the vest but that�s a bad strategy this week.� Face it; this Bengal edition can play smashmouth better than these Steelers so, to win, the PS will have to get airborne sooner rather than later.� Forced to throw late, they�ll have �little chance; in contrast, if they can stay balanced and get out early (making Cincy one-dimensional), then, yeah, this <B&G as contender> masquerade could drag on.

 

 

Appendix:

 

Results observed in the previous season are tabulated below.�

 

 

Regular season 2002

Winning Factor (WF)

Total yards rushing

168-67-5

1.40

TOP

176-63-1

1.47

100 yard rushers

84-37

1.39

>/= +2 Takeaways

107-13

1.78

YPA

186-48-6

1.55

 

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