2003 Draft, secondary prospects:

 

This article is to be the first in a series of unit-focused pieces, each to be refined or updated as the draft draws nearer.� The Bowl season and most all-star tilts are in the books now but until the Combine/campus workouts are concluded, any ordered prospect list is necessarily preliminary.� Certainly, the height, weight and speed data assembled in the following must be considered provisional (or else the outright fiction of far-flung promo flacks) until that is confirmed in Indianapolis next month.� Indeed, this simple data varies widely from source to source; one example is Julian Battle who is listed anywhere from 6-0, 195 to 6-2, 205.� Those figures make all the difference; in the former case, Battle is a CB who can�t play in space; in the latter, he figures as a possible SS prospect.� Again, the Indy site will tell all but, in the interim, this series will rely on the info shown at www.draftbook.com.

 

The basis for the prospect articles in this series shall be the twin Overviews (O-side and D-side) published on-site 24 &17 January 2003 respectively.� If you care too, you can find them on the Home Page, either directly or (later) by scrolling the articles link.� Given the Steelers� needs as identified there, we�ll evaluate D-backs, D-linemen, TE and RB closely.� Neither WR nor interior O-linemen will be covered; QB, LB and OT may be but only as time permits.� Ultimately, each unit will get subsumed in an overall draft board; somewhere in there, FA will be evaluated and, should any of the teams� needs be addressed there before the draft, the �board� will be adjusted accordingly.

 

Since the secondary was the root of all evils last year, we�ll begin there.� As outlined previously, the Steelers� minimum needs are (1) Cover 3 worthy back whether at CB or FS and (1) SS capable of covering a TE.� Preferably, both players would be so able.� Beyond that, the Steelers will need a player to replace Washington, probably following the 2003 season.� Overarching the D-side�s systemic failure in 2002 is the fact that the secondary had no difference-maker (in the Woodson, Lake mold of the mid-90�s).� Acquisition of such is a high priority but given the modest prospects available in the FA pool (and the Steelers� current cap crunch), the draft looks to be the best, or only, venue available to land whatever franchise type might arrive here next season.� More specifically:

 

• In evaluating safety prospects, Chris Hope, not Lee Flowers, should be the benchmark.� Flowers ran a 4.78 in the �95 Combine; every prospect listed in the following will be faster.� Hope ran 4.46 last spring; that�s pretty good, as we�ll see, that would put him in the second group in the sections following.� The issue with Hope, at SS, is whether or not he has the frame length to deal with TE.� Hope is 5-11, possibly, taller SS candidates such as Julian Battles or Nick Barnett would be an upgrade; possibly swifter SS candidates like Troy Polamula or Nick Barnett would be an upgrade.� However, (as we�ll see below) players like Mike Doss, Jesse Sowells or Jeremy Shabazz appear to be, more or less, Hope-clones.

 

• In the Steeler Cover 3, the FS and CB have similar skill sets.� Generally, these men may be described as big but not especially quick CB.� As always, there is a shortage of big, fast DB; Rashean Mathis is the only elite CB more than 6-0 tall.� That leaves either big-school players with good size and skill but questionable speed (Dennis Weathersby and Sammy Davis) or small school players with size and speed who figure to take a year to develop (Charles Tillman, Drayton Florence, Rushon Jones, Ivan Taylor).�

 

• The Steelers have had nearly as much problem dealing with smaller, quick WR as with TE.� This suggests that, perhaps, a smaller, quick DB would be in order.� It is worth noting that, in general, the smaller corners listed (Manning, Samual, Strickland) are said to have more polished cover skills.� Maybe yes, maybe no; certainly though, so long as the 3-4 continues here, so shall run support be part of the job description for Steeler CB.� That suggests that players such as Kevin Garrett, Ricky Manning or Donald Strickland may factor, should the secondary paradigm evolve here.��

 

Most draft lists are ordered by position; these CB, those FS and so on. However, in searching for that difference-maker, speed is presumed here to be a salient factor.� Therefore, in the following, you�ll find an emphasis on speed, regardless of position.� That is, players will be grouped on their (rumored) speed as noted; to further scrum the reflexive round by round (easily found elsewhere), players will be listed alphabetically in each table, rather than in any likely draft order.� As is true for the data, the player notes below are compressed from those found at www.draftbook.com.� That is a great, free site compiling prospect evaluations from a dozen or so gurus; go there. So:

 

Blinding speed, 40 rumored to be less than 4.40:��������������������������������������� (4 in all)

 

Position	Name	Height	Weight	40	College	Currently ranked:
SS	Nick Barnett	6-2	195-215, various reports.	4.33	Oregon State	Something of a sleeper now.� Could make an Archuleta-like run to 20 overall or stick at the Coy Wire late 3rd level.� Appears now as a mid-first day pick on some boards but is entirely absent from others.��
CB	Kevin Garrett	5-9	192	4.35	SMU	Wide variations in assessment of this player�s worth too; now ranked anywhere from 45-98 overall.�� Listed as 8th to 12th CB overall.
CB	Terence Newman	5-11	175	4.35	Kansas State	Top 5 overall and #1 CB.� Won�t be available to Steelers.
SS	Troy Polamula	5-10	215	4.35	USC	20-40 overall.

 

• Nick Barnett played LB at OSU but figures at SS (or dime backer) in the show.� Agile, fast, breaks down well in space, is highly aggressive and impressed Senior Bowl coaches with his ability to learn.� On the downside, didn�t play D-back. I�m very interested in this player; has my early vote as the next Carnell Lake.

 

• Kevin Garrett may be the poor man�s Terence Newman; a bit shorter but plays big at 190# and, with a rumored 4.27 40, may be even faster than Newman.� It is worth noting that when HC Phil Bennett came to SMU from K-State, he brought along his 8-in-the-box, man-off system; that is, both Garrett and Newman played the same kind of scheme, one not dissimilar to the Steelers�.� Garrett is both quick and fast; on the downside, does get beaten on double moves and struggles against taller WR.� Instincts have been both praised and panned.� You�d like to believe that he�s the next Darrell Green but, if that becomes a widely held view, he won�t be around at 27.� In fact, he is currently ranked as only the 8^th to 12^th CB overall.� Did okay, not great, at the Senior Bowl.

 

• Terence Newman: will be first CB taken.

 

• Troy Polamula:� Fast, powerful, highly productive player at a big school; just the kind of pedigree Kevin Colbert seeks.� Covers ground but wasn�t been asked to play the ball as a Trojan.� Height suggests that he�ll struggle with TE; that so, may have to be covered up some but, with his strength and speed, could do damage in packages blitzing or in press against slot type receivers.� Had injury problems in senior year (high ankle and hamstring) but none debilitating.� Tough call: prototype SS but as the game is played today that position is (probably) in decline; still, has high impact potential, if he were 2-4� taller would be a top 10 pick.�

�

Good to very good speed, 40 rumored to be less than 4.50:���������������������� (14 in all)

 

Position	Name	Height	Weight	40	College	Currently ranked:
CB	Korey Banks	5-10	176	4.40	Miss. State	2nd day
SS (usually listed as FS/CB)	Julian Battle	6-2	205	4.43-4.47	Tennessee	An enigma, high on some boards, about 100 overall on others.
CB	Torrie Cox	5-10	179	4.48	Pitt	2nd day
CB	Sammy Davis	6-0	186	4.47-4.60	Texas A&M	Depends on actual speed; possible late 2nd round or mid 2nd day.
CB	Drayton Florence	6-0	192	4.42	Tuskegee	Small school riser, high 3rd.� Speed could make him a 2nd round Steeler pick but, probably, that is a stretch.�
CB	Rushon Jones	5-11	201	4.46	Vanderbilt	No info.
CB	Ricky Manning	5-8	180	4.46	UCLA	Mid-3rd-mid 4th.
CB/FS	Rashean Mathis	6-2	190	4.42	Bethune-Cookman	Small school riser, top 5 among all DB.
FS	Antoine Sanders	6-1	193	4.49	Utah	2nd day, over-age.
SS	Jeremy Shabazz	5-11	202	4.47	N. Mexico State	Small school riser, 3rd to high 4th.���
FS/CB (usually listed as SS)	Jesse Sowells	5-11	203	4.41-4.49	Houston	Rising, now �seems to be a 3rd round type.
CB	Ivan Taylor	6-0	194	4.42	La.-Lafayette	2nd day value, maybe.
FS/CB	Charles Tillman	6-1	195	4.48	La.-Lafayette	Small school riser, mid 2nd to high 3rd.
CB	Marcus Trufant	5-11	187	4.40	Wash. State	Top 10

 

• Korey Banks is fast and has good cover skills.� However, he is small, tackles poorly and has questionable technique.� Despite speed, was an unenthusiastic return man; in my book, is not a prospect.

 

• Julian Battles played FS and press CB at Tennessee; however, I see him as a SS with TE coverage ability here.� Great size and strength; speed has been questioned but, for now, consider that to be a plus.� However, less productive than projected; said to play stiff, said to be a short area pass defender only (SS that is, not FS) and, off rumors of problems he had picking up instruction at the Senior Bowl, may be half dumb.� Still, big school player; in the Colbert MO, he may figure.

 

• Sammy Davis is polished and aggressive; did as well as Woolfolk and Garrett at the Senior Bowl, maybe better.� However, speed is a question; if he is sub 4.5, could warrant a pick @ #59 or so; if 4.60, 2^nd day, if at all.� Consistently about 10^th CB ranked, that�s a mid 3^rd slot.� At best, figures as a #2 CB.

 

• Ricky Manning has superior technique but height projects him as a nickel.� Well-built, said to be strong for his size; however, is a dubious fit for Steelers.

 

• Rashean Mathis held his own at Senior Bowl.� Has range, hands, speed, smooth back pedal; everything you want, except big time experience.� Of the top 4 CB prospects, is the only one over 6-0; as such, probably will be gone by 27.

 

• Jeremy Shabazz is said to be highly intelligent.� Has shown to be a willing and powerful run support player; hasn�t been asked to do much against the pass.� Has speed to contribute but agility, hip flip etc. yet to be tested.

 

• Jesse Sowells was a JuCo player before finishing at Houston.� Played SS there with some flat cover responsibility; numbers similar to those of Polamula but of course, competition was not.� Currently is working out at CB; his WO partner is Kevin Garrett.� Could be a SS with cover skills but, in all measurables, is a lot like Chris Hope.� Far more valuable if he could develop as a CB but we�ll see�

 

• Ivan Taylor has all the physical traits but he was academically eligible for just two of his five years enrolled.� Since he attended Louisiana-Lafayette, not Michigan or MIT, we might question his learning ability.� Rumor has it that BLESTO ranks him 5^th overall, regardless of position.� That view is not widely held.

 

• Marcus Trufant would be my CB, even over Newman.� Top ten pick for sure.

 

• Charles Tillman played centerfield at La.-Lafayette.� Team leader, high character guy; numbers similar to Polamula but the Sun Belt is not the Pacific 10.� Intriguing as a safety possessing coverage skills.� Frame length could help with TE duties; seems to have many of the measurables of a Dennis Weathersby but may be a couple steps faster.�

 

Above average to marginal speed, 40 rumored to be less than 4.60��������������������������������������������� (16 in all).

 

Position	Name	Height	Weight	40	College	Currently ranked:
FS	Namadi Asomugha	6-2	201	4.50	Cal	Late 2nd day
CB	Rod Babers	5-8	185	4.50	Texas	Late 2nd day
SS	Mike Doss	5-10	200	4.55	OSU	Late 1st- mid 2nd.
SS	Charles Drake	6-1	204	4.53	Michigan	#1 SS on (1) board but un-ranked on others.
FS	Todd Johnson	6-0	200	4.55	Florida	3rd to 5th�
FS	Cato June	6-0	218	4.57	Michigan	4th to 5th
SS	Terence Kiel	5-11	203	4.58	Texas A&M	Late 2nd day, FA.
CB	Terence McGee	5-9	195	4.53	NW La. State	Late 2nd day, FA.
S	Donnie Nickey	6-2	212	4.54	OSU	3rd �4th
CB	Asante Samual	5-11	175	4.53	Central Florida	3rd or 4th
CB	Donald Strickland	5-10	185	4.55	Colorado	3rd or 4th
CB	Frank Walker	6-0	202	4.55	Tuskegee	Mid-2nd day
CB	Shane Walton	5-10	183	4.59	Notre Dame	3rd to 5th
FS/CB	Dennis Weathersby	6-1	205	4.50- 4.60	Oregon State	Late 1st to mid 2nd.
CB	Eugene Wilson	5-10	187	4.51	Illinois	Mid 2nd to mid 3rd.
CB/FS	Andre Woolfolk	5-11	191	4.54	Oklahoma	Mid 1st to high 2nd.

 

There are a fair of number of players on the list above who are highly regarded by the Mel Kipers of this world; in general, those players may be characterized as big-school, high-profile types who, despite somewhat disappointing seasons, remain near the top of various mass media, celebrity draft boards.� Those include:

 

• Mike Doss is a big hitter but no kind of coverage player.� While he would be an upgrade from Lee Flowers, it is not at all clear that he is an upgrade from Chris Hope.�� Some consider Nickey a better prospect; given that, has a DND (do not draft) grade here through, at minimum, two rounds.

 

• Dennis Weathersby is a big bump and run cover DB but the Steelers don�t play bump and run.� Said to have trouble with small, quick WR; this describes the Steeler CB starters too.� Despite his size, is said to poor in run support.� In sum, this man embodies all the weaknesses of the existing group but manifests none of their strengths.� Until proven otherwise, carries a DND grade well into the 2^nd day.

 

• Eugene Wilson is small, he plays slower than his posted time and he is said to be arrogant.� Got burned by Josh Reed and Lee Evans; stunk it out at the Senior Bowl.� For now, is DND at any point.

 

• Andre Woolfolk has worked his way down from a sure top 10 to the point that he is liable to fall out of the 1^st round altogether.� Did okay, not great at the Senior Bowl.� Began at Oklahoma as a WR and has great ball skills; on the downside, does not break on the ball like a top CB and got toasted by Rashon Woods of Ok State.� However, Woolfolk is big, strong and willing in run support and is said to have some catch-up speed; his deficiencies as a CB could be a product of inexperience.� Of the big four listed here, he is the first, maybe only, I�d draft.

 

• Asante Samual and Donald Strickland are reportedly two of the more polished CB in the draft; however, neither figure as #1 types, probably not #2 either.�� Maybe, against a multi-wide set, could handle a 3^rd or 4^th WR; of the two, Strickland is said to be better in run support.�

 

Too damn slow but still faster than Lee Flowers, 40 less than 4.70����������������������������������� (8 in all)

 

Position	Name	Height	Weight	40	College	Currently ranked:
FS	Colin Branch	6-0	207	4.63	Stanford	FA
FS	Anthony Floyd	5-10	202	4.61	Louisville	5th to FA
FS	Ken Hamlin	6-2	211	4.65	Arkansas	3rd
FS	Terence Holt	6-2	202	4.64	NC State	3rd to 4th
CB	Jason Goss	5-10	186	4.63	TCU	5th to FA
SS	Willie Pile	6-2	210	4.63	V. Tech	3rd to 5th
SS	Bryan Scott	6-0	216	4.65	PSU	5th to FA
FS	Thomas Wright	6-2	198	4.63	MSU	5th to FA

 

Lee ran a 4.78 at the �95 Combo; the mid-point between that and, say, Barnett�s rumored 4.33, is around 4.56.� Project that as barely adequate and it is clear enough that none of the players above yet make the cut.� Of those, Holt would give value as a 2^nd day ST player.

 

Parsing the DB, with history as a guide:

 

The following table displays the DB slots over the past three drafts.� To my understanding, the Steelers are drafting 27, 59 and 92 overall.� Let�s see how many DB figure to be off the board at those points:�

 

Slot	2000	2001	2002	Remarks	2003 (?)
Top 26         Top (3) CB off the board.	1.15 O�Neal, CB 1.23 Anderson, CB 1.24 Plummer, CB	1.20 Archuleta, S 1.21 Clements, CB 1.22 Allen, CB 1.24 M�Brooks, S 1.26 Fletcher, NCB	1.5 Jammer, CB 1.8 Williams, SS 1.17 Buchanon, CB/PR 1.24 Reed, FS 1.26 Sheppard, CB	(13) taken, (10) contribute, (3) look like busts.	Newman, CB Trufant, CB Mathis, CB
27             4th to 6th DB overall is available	4th on the board	6th on the board	1.27 Rumph, CB was the 6th DB selected.� Rumph was routinely toasted this year.	Generally, safeties listed below are better than the CB suggesting safety will be a better value here.	Value: Polamula, SS Woolfolk, CB Battles, SS (?)
					DND here Doss, SS Weathersby, CB
Next group                 4th to 7th CB now off the board	2.34 Roman, S 2.39 Brown, S 2.43 Beckett, S 2.45 Kennedy, S 2.48 Webster, CB 2.49 Goodrich, CB 2.52 Charlton, CB 2.54 Bartee, CB 2.58 Tillman, S	1.28 Gibson, S 2.37 Bashir, S 2.40 Lucas, CB 2.45 Smoot, CB 2.54 Stone, CB 2.56 Dixon, S	2.41 Thompson, S 2.45 T. Williams, S 2.57 McGrew, S 2.58 Lewis, S	Including Rumph, (20) selected from 27 to 58.� Of those,�� (10) start. (5-7) in the �00-�01 classes look like busts.�	With the top 8 above, figure 2 to 4 of the following will be off the board: Tillman, FS Hamlin, FS Holt, FS Sowells, S/CB Wilson, CB Florence, CB Davis, CB Garrett, CB Manning, CB Jones, CB
59                   11th to 13th DB overall is available	13th on the board	12th on the board	2.59 Sheldon Brown, CB was the 11th DB taken. Brown contributed in package sets and ST.	CB may be a good value here. �(See discussion following).	Value: Battle, SS Tillman, FS ? Garrett, CB ? Sowells, CB�� ? Davis, CB ? Florence, CB ? Jones, CB
					DND here: Doss, SS Wilson, CB Hamlin, FS Holt, FS
Next group                         10th to 14th CB now off the board.	2.62 Sheppard, CB 3.64 Harrison, CB 3.77 Poteat, NCB 3.84 Kelly, NCB 3.85 Wesley, SS               Too bad the Steelers didn�t draft Wesley, rather than Poteat.	2.60 Dyson, CB 2.62 Baxter, CB 3. 64 Wilson, S 3.67 Cody, CB 3.69 Kelly, CB 3. 71 Jue, CB 3.78 Petersen, CB 3.84 Smith, NCB 3. 86 Williams, CB 3.91 Bird, S	2.64 Fisher, CB 3.68 Goodman, CB 3.70 Offord, S 3.72 Williams, S 3.74 Jefferson, CB 3.75 Ross, CB 3.79 Bauman, NCB 3.85 Richards, CB	Including Brown, (24) selected.� Of those, (8) start.��	With the 18 listed in the preceding, add 8 shown below for 26 in all.� On the chalk, at least 5 won�t be drafted on day 1:   Barnett, SS Drake, SS Shabazz, SS Johnson, FS Nickey, FS Samual, CB Strickland, CB Walton, CB
92         18th to 22nd DB overall is available.	18th on the board	22nd on the board	3.92 Marques Anderson, S was the 20th DB taken.� Anderson was a starter in GB, returned (2) INT for TD.	The next group out are big CB or SS.	Value: Barnett, SS Shabazz, SS
					DND Here: Johnson, FS Nickey, FS Walton, CB
Second day Contributors	4.95 Sanders, CB 4.118 Carter, CB 5.159 Freeman, S 5.162 Dennis, CB 6.180 Edwards, CB 6.193 Gibson, S 7.254 Green, S	4.97 Henry, CB 4.101 Hendersen, CB 4.117 Howell, S 5.143 Cooper, S/ST 5.163 Akbar, S 6.178 Driver, S 6.179 Holman, NCB 7.233 McCree, S	3.94 Hope, S 3.97 Wire, S 4.100 Wesley, CB 4.110 Echols, NCB 4.115 Beckham, CB 4.125 Craver, CB 6.175 Cash, NCB 6.181 Manual, SS	(7) of the men listed here are starters.�	Taylor, CB Walker, CB Holt, FS Sanders, FS

 

 

First Round: Mathis, Polamula or Woolfolk could be BPA but, if Battle were next up, I�d consider another position of need; as mentioned, I would not consider either Doss or Weathersby in the 1^st.�� The 4^th corner has been on the board @ 27 for each of the last (3) years.� However, the 4^th men taken have been: Jason Webster, Ken Lucas and Mike Rumph.� None can be described as difference-makers.� In my opinion, the safeties listed from 27 to 58 are superior to the CB; you might review the list and draw your own conclusion.� Note that the rookie year starting rate for DB taken between 27 and 58 is about 40%; 2^nd year rate goes up to about 60%.

 

Second Round:� After the first (5), it is too soon to tell which DB will be off the board next spring.� I�d hope Doss, Weathersby, Hamlin and Wilson were out, leaving some of the speed shown above.� The wild card is Nick Barnett; he may move up past this spot or he may be an El or Kordell type-pick here (high productivity, no known position).�� However, in reviewing the players taken between 59 and 91, it is evident that the quality has been at CB. Last year, Derek Ross led all rookies in INT and Andre Goodman developed as a package force in Detroit.� In 2001, Andre Dyson, William Petersen and Tay Cody were starters; Baxter started in his second season and we just saw Dwight Smith bring back (2) INT for scores in the Super Bowl.� Ronde Barber, Aeneas Williams and Dre� Bly each were once top of the third picks; that these are all short players suggests Garrett as the guy this year.�

 

In projecting a CB pick here, consider the 7^th to 11^th prospects; of those, Garrett has the speed, Davis was productive at A&M and Florence figures as a developmental prospect ala Joseph Jefferson of �01.� From the table above, the rookie year starting rate for players taken between 59 and 91 was just 25%; the package contributor rate was higher but overall, we�re looking at developmental types more than immediate starters.

 

Third Round:� There will be some quality at the top in CB and some quality at the bottom at S; if a deal for Stewart brings a high third, this may be a spot for one of the CB, per the discussion above.

 

Summary:

 

• If speed is the hallmark of the so-called difference-maker, then @ 4.33 to 4.42, Newman, Polamula, Kevin Garrett, Nick Barnett, Trufant, Mathis, Drayton Florence and Ivan Taylor figure as the guys.� Of those, four will probably be gone before the Steelers reach the podium; only Garrett, Barnett, Florence and Taylor figure to be available to the Steelers but none are 1^st round worthy.� Jesse Sowells is a wild card; if he is a 4.41 guy, then he does figure though, at present, not in round 1.

 

• Of the SS candidates with speed, only Battles and Barnett figure to have the size to deal with TE.� Other speed prospects with height, including Mathis and Charles Tillman, don�t figure as SS.� Generally, those SS prospects that have size lack quality speed.

 

• There are some big CB in the Steeler mode available but, in general, these are all small-school players who figure to take time to develop.� That list includes: Mathis, Tillman, Florence, Taylor and Frank Walker.� Even Andre Woolfolk is far from a finished product.� Of the big CB, Sammy Davis seems to be the best technically but his speed is at issue.� Two players to watch may be Rushon Jones and Jesse Sowells; Jones played at Vandy and, perhaps, is skilled while Sowells played at safety for Houston but is now working out as a CB.� Regardless, it is unlikely that the Steelers will draft a quality big CB who is ready out of the box.

 

• Of the shorter CB, Kevin Garrett, Ricky Manning and Donald Strickland are most likely to support the run.� Of those, only Garrett has difference-making speed.

 

• If you�re betting on the come, two players that project as difference-makers are Rashean Mathis as a Cover 3 CB/FS type and Nick Barnett as a TE-worthy SS.� The Steelers would almost certainly have to move up in the 1^st to get Mathis; Barnett�s slot is yet to be determined.� However, neither player figures to be ready next year; that so, Pittsburgh might make do with stopgap, one-year FA such as Rod Woodson @ FS paired with Logan or Hope at SS, while Mathis and Barnett develop.� Were it possible for the B&G to get both and also acquire Kevin Garrett in the 59-75 range, IMO that would be a job well done. �