The twin Overviews (published on-site in late January 2003) laid out the issues confronting the Steelers this off-season.� Several subsequent pieces, including A Brief History of Draft Theory and Practice, So, You want draft a QB and Reality Check, sought the intersection of quality starters at various positions with the round(s) such players were selected in their respective drafts.� To summarize:

 

• The Steelers need a third quality Cover 3 D-back.� This may be either a FS or CB but given the Steelers� predilection for placing vets in the middle of the field, one possibility is that the PS will draft a CB and move either Scott or Washington in to replace Alexander.� About 80% of the CB starting in 2003 were selected in the first three rounds from �91 forward, generally no later than about #75 overall.� This analysis suggests that the PS have just two slots (1.27 and 2.59) to make their move, whether they intend to draft a starter for 2003 or Washington�s successor in 2004.� At 1.27, they�ll be looking at the 4^th CB on the board, at 2.59 somewhere between the 5^th and 8^th and at 3.92 somewhere between the 11^th and 15^th.

 

• Each year in the Colbert Era, the Steelers have used their first round selection to draft an immediate starter.� On the D-side, they return 10/11 of their 2002 first team; only the SS position is open.� They may promote from within as, if only by default, Chris Hope seems to be more a SS than a FS.� Hope has good straight line speed but neither his play on the field in 2002 nor his preceding Combine agility tests (4.40 shuttle, 7.35 cone) suggest he could function (in effect) as a 3^rd CB, a facet absolutely required of the FS position in today�s NFL.� If the staff believes Hope can move in at SS, then selecting a CB in round one is the way to go (since that would effectively provide two new starters at safety); if Hope is not the guy, then Troy Polamalu may present as BPA at a position of need at 1.27 though the Saints (even with Tebucky Jones), the Colts and the NYG should have an interest in this player.� However, one aspect of SS play today includes TE coverage duty; frame length is a factor there and while Polamula doesn�t have it, several second through mid-round prospects do.� Bear in mind that nearly 50% of the 2003 starters at safety were taken on the second day in their respective drafts; while there is little hope of getting a quality corner after #75 or so, solid starting-caliber safeties do persist throughout.� For example, two FA safeties whom fans here now crave (Lassiter and Knight) were both rookie FA, as was Keion Carpenter.� Finally, at 1.27, the Steelers will be looking at the 1^st to 3^rd safety, at 2.59, the 6^th to 7^th and at 3.92, the 7^th to 9^th.

 

• The Steelers� Front 7 depth varies from adequate (at ILB and (maybe) DE) to abysmal.� There are no athletes behind Porter and Gildon and there is no NT behind Hampton; these are strange omissions considering that OLB is the feature position and NT is the single most essential slot in the 3-4.� With men misfit for their positions (as are Clancy, Haggans and Kurpeikis) first off the bench, the Steeler Lewis-men are about two injuries from a 2003 disaster of a sort different (but not less devastating) than they experienced last season. �Fortunately, there will be quality depth, or developmental prospects anyway, available on the second day (IMO).��

 

• While the FO has effectively used FA to deal with several of their O-side issues, re-stocking their roster at TE and adding experienced depth at OT, the RB situation remains unresolved.� The PS have no reliable power back and since Zereoue fits as a change of pace RB, not a feature back, no #1 at all.� Generally, RB are available throughout the draft but this class is uniquely thin in numbers and, of the top prospects, only Larry Johnson has escaped injury.� If dependability is the key, then the class of 2003 offers few options at this position.�

 

• Professional performance at QB has no relationship whatever to where a prospect was drafted; that is, quality starters are evenly distributed from the first round through (rookie) free agency.� That historical verity, combined with the fact that the Steeler QB corps is actually younger than their D-back group and that the second tier QB prospects (Grossman, Simms and Ragone) are, IMO, vastly overrated, drops the QB position off my first day board.� Speaking of which:

 

Value Board:

 

The table below is only lightly related to any available elsewhere.� This array is representative rather than comprehensive. Additional information on prospects listed here may be found in earlier articles within the site index.� Due to the primacy of the D-back situation, O-side players generally are listed as �falls� or BPA.� That is true for first day OLB or dime DE too though, on the second day, those are listed as �reaches�, more or less.�

 

Several D-backs are shown with multiple listing; those are safeties with CB skills, either proven on the (collegiate) field or as revealed by various agility drills.� Prospects include: Andre Woolfolk, Nnmadi Asomugha, Colin Branch, Terrence Kiel and Jesse Sowells.� Rashean Mathis, Charles Tillman and Bryan Scott may be similarly faceted; however, the Steelers� predilection for big school players seems to eliminate both Mathis and Tillman while Scott really doesn�t factor as a CB.� As an example of this multi-listing, I�d regard Asomugha as (potentially) a 2^nd round prospect at SS, a 3^rd at FS and a 4^th at CB.� Further, while either Tillman or Branch may be more than acceptable values @ 3.92 as �pure� safeties, an ARE-like reach and position switch might project them even earlier as CB, or safety/CB hybrids.

 

Position Player	CB	Cover 3 Safety	SS	OLB/Dime DE	3-4 D-line	O-side BPA
1	Sammy Davis		Troy Polamalu			Larry Johnson
2	Kevin Garrett   (Woolfolk)   (Mathis)   (Tillman)	Andre Woolfolk   Rashean Mathis	Nick Barnett   Ken Hamlin   (Asomugha)   Mike Doss	Antwan Peek   Tully Banta-Cain   Calvin Pace		Musa Smith   Justin Fargas
3	Drayton Florence   (Branch)	Charles Tillman   Nnmadi Asomugha   Colin Branch	Bryan Scott	Alonzo Jackson	Tyler Brayton	Chris Brown       Ovie Mughelli
4	(Asomugha)		Terrence Kiel	Osi Umenyiora	Ian Scott   Colin Cole	Cecil Sapp
5	(Scott)	Chris Brown	Jesse Sowells	Shantee Orr   Chris Clemons   Aaron Hunt	Terrence Martin   Matt Leonard	Artose Pinner   Brian St. Pierre   Dewayne Hicks
6, 7, FA	(Sowells)   Leigh Bodden   Terrence Findley	Anthony Floyd	Jeremy Shabazz   Willie Pile   Derek Pagel   Charles Drake   Curry Burns   Tracy White	Sam Williams   Jamal Green   Brandon Green   Khalid Abdullah   Robert Mathis   Jarrod Pennright	Antonio Garay   James Lee   Tim Love   Roy Attieh	BJ Askew   Corey Moore   Justin Griffith   MacKenzie Maleafou

 

A few prospects whose learning ability has been challenged:

 

Carson Palmer

Julian Battle

Chaun Thompson

Shurron Pierson

Cie Grant

Ivan Taylor

 

Round by Round.

 

1.27:� The Steelers will target a big school producer who plays a position of need and figures to start immediately, give or take a game or two.� In the Colbert Era, the Steelers have drafted �value at the spot� twice in Burress and Simmons while once �reaching� (some thirty spots) for Casey Hampton.� Either LJ or Polamalu would be �values� while Sammy Davis would be a Hampton-esque reach.

 

• SS Troy Polamalu is probably the best athlete among all D-backs.� Of the first round type secondary prospects, his rare combination of strength, speed and dedication best suggest a high degree of impact potential.� This selection would be within the starter-replacement mode here; Polamalu would be an upgrade for Flowers at SS and, IMO, it is highly likely that he would take Logan�s position in the packages too (It is not reasonable to expect Logan to recover from his knee procedure so to be ready early in the 2003 season, if at all).� In this scenario, Bell and Polamalu would take the package LB duties with Porter moving back to dime DE; in effect, this would improve the Steelers at up to (3) positions: dime DE, SS and (1) package backer.�� On the downside, value at SS tends to last longer than at CB and, while Polamalu could well be BPA at 1.27, selecting a SS early is likely to reduce the aggregate quality of the Steeler class of �03.� Note:� New Orleans has had Polamalu in for a visit; San Diego may be interested in him as an upgrade from Rodney Harrison and the Colts could definitely use his speed/run-stopping ability.� Of those teams, my guess is New Orleans (assuming they don�t move up.)

 

• CB Sammy Davis is now #3 among CB prospects on many team boards, at least so writes Len Pasquarelli at ESPN.� For what it�s worth, he was #3 on my board since the Combine where he tested as well, or better, than DB more highly regarded (on fan sites anyway).� Those test scores confirm his considerable collegiate production; Davis is in fact 1^st round-worthy even if he doesn�t �eyeball� as well as Weathersby, Woolfolk or Mathis.� Leaving that opinion to range the non-elite (read, top 10) CB, it is apparent that the quality of the proven 3^rd CB has varied over the years.� In �98, you might choose between Surtain, Rolle and Starks as #3, Antoine Winfield is 3^rd in the �99 class; any player producing at this level certainly would be worth 1.27.� On the downside, the class of �00 would (probably) yield Jason Webster as the 3^rd guy and, while he has started since his rookie season, Webster is an upgradeable player.� For what it�s worth, I�d put Davis in the Rolle class, more or less.� I do not believe the Steelers will draft Dennis Weathersby (there are work ethic issues associated with this player) and, as for Andre Woolfolk, well, in evaluating prospects by ((productivity x competition) confirm with measurables), I can�t distinguish between an athletic player who produced against dubious competition (Mathis, Tillman, Florence) and one, such as Woolfolk, who tallied very unimpressive numbers against the top teams in the nation.� Woolfolk was never better than 3^rd team Big 12; he may be an exceptional 2^nd round developmental type but he is not the Steelers secondary savior, circa 2003 and, frankly, anyone ranking him #3 among all D-backs is delusional.� Note:� IMO, a trade-down that would net this player and additional draft picks (as mocked in versions 1 & 2) is no longer possible.� The Titans have had Davis, Weathersby and Mathis in for visits; the Raiders need a third CB and so on�

 

• Larry Johnson reminds me of Eddie George; by selecting Johnson, the FO would acquire their franchise RB and so could cut Bettis pre-June (freeing 2004 cap to get into the coming Shawn Springs Derby).� On the downside, as is true at SS, effective RB are found throughout the draft and, again, it�s 1^st or 2^nd and out at CB for this year�s crop, as in any other.� Note: If the Patriots don�t select him at #19, this player will be available at #27.� A trade-down is remotely possible; however, the Steelers probably can�t move past Detroit, #34, and still be assured of getting this man.

 

2.59:� As in the 1^st round, the Steelers will target a big school producer here who plays a position of need and figures to contribute immediately, give or take a game or two.� In the Colbert Era, the Steelers have drafted �value at the spot� twice in Smith and Bell while once �reaching� (some sixty spots) for the changeling WR/KR/PR, former QB Antwaan Randle-El.� Smith was taken top 40, the Steelers moved up from 50 into the top 40 to get Bell; ARE was taken at 60 overall.��

 

• CB looks like the value pick@ 2.59 but don�t count on it:� Most prospect lists have a concentration of CB between 50 and 70 to include Mathis, Davis, Eugene Wilson, Kevin Garrett and Drayton Florence.� On a �value� basis, CB looks good here and analysis of previous drafts shows that the 5^th to 8^th CB will be on the board at 2.59.� Ideally, Sammy Davis would be the guy and if the Big Two, Woolfolk, Weathersby and Mathis go 1-5 that could happen.� More likely though, the pass happy attacks of 2002 will compel a run on coverage types in the 2^nd round and, at best, the Steelers will be looking at Kevin Garrett as the top CB on the board (7^th or 8^th overall).� I like Garrett, he and Polamalu would give the Steelers a lot of speed but it is inconceivable that the Steelers would draft (2) DB 5�-10� or under.� That leaves small school, big CB like Florence and Tillman, players with a pedigree of a type ignored in the Colbert reign.� In short, while CB looks like the �value� pick here, the way the NFL game has evolved casts some doubt.� That so, if the Steelers go SS or RB in Round 1, then the FO will have to find some means of trading up in Round Two (ala Bell, 2001) so to secure a legitimate starting-caliber CB.

 

• RB is another �value� slot at 2.59:� Fargas, Musa Smith or Chris Brown may be available; of those, Brown is most likely to be still on the board exactly because he doesn�t figure to contribute in the pass game.� He is a power runner, a prospect whose strengths (and limitations) make him a strong candidate to succeed the Bus; that said, he�s a 3^rd round value in my book. Smith has had more than 120 carries in just one season; Fargas has never achieved even that lowly level; IMO, OLB/dime DE is a better value here.�

 

• Bantu-Cain, Pace or Peek would be value at the spot but under the �immediate contributor rule�, I don�t believe the FO will be looking at OLB this soon.� Then again, KFFL has reported that the Steelers had both Pace and Peek in for visits; conceivably then, either may drafted as a dime rusher now and eventual replacement for Jason Gildon later.� Like Peek, Bantu-Cain put up Porter type measurables at his Pro Day workout and Pace tested similarly.� Each player was �the guy� for their respective teams through (mainly) thin rather than thick; this suggests a high degree of �want-to�, an attribute that the Colbert FO has featured in their selection processes, and to considerable effect.�

 

• There may be value and there absolutely will be intriguing �reaches� @ 2.59 in the safety crop.� �The emphasis on the pass may cause highly regarded big school SS prospects like Mike Doss or Ken Hamlin to fall.� Of those two, I like Hamlin.� Aside from Polamalu, Hamlin is regarded as the biggest hitter in this class; that, combined with his size (6-2, 209), makes him a candidate as a TE-covering SS.� Hamlin ran 4.55 (which isn�t great) but his agility drills (3.92 shuttle, 6.78 cone) were CB-worthy.�� Julian Battle may be available but I�d stay away from this player, on productivity/learning ability grounds.� Then there are the �reaches� to include:

 

1. Nick Barnett:� Played both safety spots and LB at Oregon State where he, not Dennis Weathersby, was regarded (by some) as the best defender on that team.� Rumored to have run 4.33; however, came to the Combine bulked up and accomplished just 4.68.�

 

2. Charles Tillman:� High character guy who played both FS and CB; however, is a small school player and, as such, falls outside the Steelers� early round selection criteria.

 

3. Nnmadi Asomugha: This could be the guy.� Played safety and CB at Cal but, at 6023, 213# seems to have the size to play SS, (if versatility is the key then, clearly, a three-position prospect has some advantages).� Asomugha was 2^nd team Pac-10, an academic All-American (at Cal, not FSU) and demonstrated big play ability (returning INT for TD in each of his last three seasons).� Ran 4.48 at the Combine, is rumored to have run 4.38 elsewhere, did (16) Combine reps (the same as Hamlin).�� Fits the ARE reach-type mode.

 

Ideally, the PS would come away with both Polamalu and Davis.� However, while it is remotely possible that Polamalu will be available at 1.27, it is inconceivable that Davis will be on the board at 2.59.� That so, unless the PS can move up after taking Troy (or LJ for that matter), they�ll be effectively shut out of the CB market.� IMO, excluding Charles Tillman (a small school player unlikely to be taken by the Steelers), there will be insufficient value at CB at 2.59 and, as we�ve seen, there is rarely starting-caliber value thereafter at that position.� That�s not all bad; with just one healthy safety below age 32, the PS do have deep need at that position too.� That so, either SS and FS or CB and SS (or hybrid S) is fine by me; Polamalu and Asomugha or Davis and Hamlin, either pair would upgrade a unit that has received inadequate attention in the Colbert Era.�� For what it�s worth, I believe Polamalu will be long gone and Sammy Davis will be the pick at 1.27.� While I�d prefer either Hamlin (if available) or Asomugha at 2.59, the FO may be hoping that Mike Doss falls that far.�� If that happens, well, we can only hope that they have Peek or Pace more highly ranked.

 

Regardless of position, we can be reasonably assured that the PS FO will come away with solid players in rounds one and two.� That�s not true thereafter; while the previous regime generally had good success in the late going, the Colbert FO has been mediocre beyond #60 overall.� Sure, it�s really too early to evaluate the 2^nd day class of �02 and the �01 group looks pretty good (though no edge players number therein) but the verdict is in league-wide via the RFA route on the class of �00 and, well, the results aren�t great.� ESPN analyst John Clayton has described an unprecedented flurry of RFA signings around the league but neither Clancy, Poteat nor Haggans got an offer and, to my knowledge, only Haggans got a whiff.� Maybe, this has a methodological basis as we have it from Steelers Digest that the FO here does only two rounds in their preparatory mock drafts.� Well, that far so good but thereafter, not; it is true that possibilities multiply swiftly as any mock progresses with certain inaccuracies to follow but by way of ranging the field:

 

3.92:� If the Steelers go OLB in round 2, then hybrid safety types are a priority here.� There figure to be prospects available including Bryan Scott, Colin Branch and Terrence Kiel.� Of those, Scott is most likely to help early though Branch has considerable upside.� Like Asomugha, Scott has played CB and, like Asomugha, Scott had a 4.38 40 on his campus Pro Day.� If the Steelers already have their safety (in 1 or 2) then, ideally, Chris Brown would be available.� At RB and safety, but not OLB, this slot is roughly interchangeable with 2.59 although value-wise, the �fall side� favors RB here.

 

4.125:� The second tier of 3-4 D-linemen present in the 4^th but preferably the Steelers would get one more speed player.� Generally, the Colbert FO has drafted in a reciprocating fashion (two defenders, then two offensive players and so on).� If it�s defense in rounds 1 and 2, then we might expect RB and WR or QB in 3 and 4.�� However, the best dime rush candidate after Pace and Bantu-Cain is Osi Umenyiora, DE.��� The PS had this player in for a visit and, as they did with Aaron Smith in �99 and Mathias Nkwenti in �01, may spend a 4^th on a �redshirt� future value.

 

5.16x:� There is a cluster of value among 3-4 D-line stuffers here to include Terrence Martin and Matt Leonard, if not Colin Cole.

 

6.200:� OLB developmental prospects like Shantee Orr with athleticism superior to Kurpeikis and Haggans abound but if Umenyiora is the 4^th, then maybe a WR or QB.� If the Steelers haven�t gotten an RB yet then either Dewayne Hicks or BJ Askew would be good values.

 

7.24x:� My favorite sleeper, SS Jeremy Shabazz who, with Polamalu and Hamlin, is regarded as this class�s biggest hitter.

 

Assuming Sammy Davis is the guy

 

	DB dominant mode	Preparing to move the cap killers	One more trip on the Bus while preparing to move the D-side cap killers.
1	CB Sammy Davis	CB Sammy Davis	CB Sammy Davis
2	Safety:   SS Ken Hamlin SS/FS Nnmadi Asomugha	OLB/DE:   Calvin Pace Antwan Peek Tully Banta-Cain	OLB/DE:   Calvin Pace Antwan Peek Tully Banta-Cain
3	RB:   Chris Brown Cecil Sapp	RB:   Chris Brown Cecil Sapp	Hybrid safeties:   Nnamdi Asomugha Charles Tillman Bryan Scott Colin Branch
4	DE Osi Umenyiora	Hybrid safeties:   Colin Branch Terrence Kiel Jesse Sowells	DL: �Ian Scott Osi Umenyiora Colin Cole Terrence Martin
5	DL: � Colin Cole Terrence Martin Matt Leonard	DL: � Colin Cole Terrence Martin Matt Leonard	O-side BPA, say, Artose Pinner
6	OLB:   Aaron Hunt Shantee Orr Brandon Green	O-side BPA.	O-side BPA, say, Brian St. Pierre.
7	SS Jeremy Shabazz	SS Jeremy Shabazz	SS Jeremy Shabazz
	(3) DB, (1) LB, (2) DL and (1) RB	(3) DB, (1) LB, (1) DL, (2) O-side	(3) DB, (1) LB, (1) DL, (2) O-side