�2005 Game 13 Preview
For
the third week running, the Steelers draw a division leader.� They are 0-2 in the past two; on the season,
1-3 (Cincinnati twice, Indianapolis and NE).�
That 1-3 mark carries through their tilts against teams with (contemporaneous)
winning records too.� They�ve split with
Cincinnati but been whipped by Indy and Jacksonville.�
The
Bears� mark is opposite.� Chicago is 3-1
against teams with winning records, at the time of the tilt, including a win
two weeks ago against division-leading Carolina, followed by another over Tampa
Bay.� At this point, the Bears are about
2 wins from wrapping the NFC North, while the Steelers� playoff aspirations are
circling the drain.� In September, who�d
have thought it?� Beginning where both
teams made their bones:�
D-side
comparison, Chicago and Pittsburgh:�
|
PPG |
YPG |
Plays
faced |
Rush YPC |
Pass YPA |
v.
QB Rating |
Sack
% |
Takes |
3rd
down |
Penalty Yards |
Steelers |
18.8 #11 |
299.8 #10 |
768 #23 |
3.3 #1 |
6.64 #14 |
75.9 #12 |
7.9% #5 |
24 #10 |
42.5% #30 |
859 #31 |
Bears |
10.6 #1 |
262.8 #1 |
771 #25 |
3.4 T-2 |
5.62 #1 |
59.9 #1 |
7.8% #7 |
27 #5 |
28.4% #1 |
772 #22 |
- The Bears are #1 in 5
of 10 categories noted above.� Here�s
another: RZ defense where they have allowed 6 TD in 30 trips.� That is 20%; 40% may be described as <standard
excellent>.�
- The Bears are top 5 in
two others and 7th in a 3rd.� Amazing, considering they are 25th
in plays against.�
- Bottom line: that 10.6
PPG mark puts this Chi-edition on pace for #2 all-time, just behind the
2000 Baltimore Ravens, who allowed 165 points in 16 regular season tilts. 10.31
per.
Bears
D-personnel:�
The
Bears rotate 7 to 8 D-linemen insuring they�ll have 4 fresh through 4
quarters.� Ian Scott starts on
the nose; Tommy Harris is the UT although, when the Bears show 3 down, �Harris will line up at LDE too.� Harris is not a big DT but he is strong and
he is sudden.� Tank Johnson,
drafted R2 2004, same year as Harris, is an interior �rush specialist.� Backup NT
Alphonso Boone will tandem with Scott on run downs.�
LDE
Adewale Ogunleye leads the team with 9.5 sacks; a quality rusher, O-gun
is long and light but displays excellent leverage against the run.� To a lesser extent, the same is true of RDE Alex
Brown.� Brown has dropped 20# from
his ineffectual days under Dick Jauron; he is a good rusher now, excellent
dropping in coverage and acceptable at the POA.� The backups are Israel Idonije and Michael Haynes;
of the two, Haynes, a 2003 R1 pick now approaching bust status, gets the least
time.
Lovie
Smith was LB coach in Tampa Bay under Tony Dungy.� It could be said he is a Dungy prot�g�. However, the Bears
version of Dungy 2 is not identical to that found in Indy.� To cite one example, Colt D-linemen have 37
of Indy�s 39 sacks.� In contrast, Bear D-linemen
have just 24 of Chicago�s 37.� That said,
the Bears� 4 backups do have 7; all Steeler D-linemen, including starters, have
6.�
But,
Dungy 2 to Dungy 2, the difference between Indy and the Windy City is all in
the LB corps.� It�s fairly simple: Brian
Urlacher is the best blitzing MLB in football and WOLB Lance Briggs
is the Derrick Brooks of the New Millennium.�
This pair plays fast and they play with force; the third guy, SOLB Hunter
Hillenmeyer is a smart player but no special athlete.�
The
Bears are strong on the corners but questionable at the safety spot.� LCB Nathan �the Interceptor�
Vasher has 7 INT and 11 PD.� Vasher
has scored twice which, apropos of nothing, is a figure exceeded by just 2
members of the Chi-O. ��RCB Charles
Tillman will draw Hines Ward, left side or right, Tillman draws an opponent�s
#1 each week.� Once paired with Ike
Taylor, at La-Lafayette, Tillman is long and has great leaping ability.� His capacity to turn and run is
questionable; he is, absolutely, susceptible to double moves.�
Mike
Brown has
led the Bear secondary since 2000, when he was drafted R2, behind
Urlacher.� Brown can deal a blow down
inside but isn�t much in halves.� Todd
Johnson will start at SS Sunday; Johnson is a great ST player and solid in
run support.� He is worthless in coverage.�
The
Bears package of choice this season has been heavy nickel but with their 3rd
S starting that is unlikely Sunday.� Instead,
it figures NCB Jerry Azumah will play in packages, with Hillenmeyer
sitting.� Azumah is getting on, at one
time a quality starter at the spot, he now contributes primarily as a KR.� That said, multi-wide does not figure to be
a feature in the Steelers� game plan Sunday.�
What
to expect:�
The
Bear defense has few weaknesses but they do have some.� They have allowed� a fair number of big plays through the air.� They have shown some susceptibility with
respect to power runners too.� On the
season, the Chi-D has allowed only 11 TD but 7 came in three games.� Those 3 tilts are tabulated below; it is
worth noting that Chicago is 1-2 in those contests.� Mainly, that is because their O is remarkably ineffectual.
3
games when the Bear-D allowed > 1 TD ((thru 12 games):
Opponent |
Score |
#
TD allowed |
Of
note |
QB
production otherwise |
Feature
RB |
Cincinnati
|
7-24 |
3 |
All
3 by air totaling 94 yards |
Palmer:
3.65 YPA on 20 (other) attempts |
Johnson:
84/25 |
Cleveland |
10-20 |
2 |
Both
by air totaling 61 yards |
Dilfer:
4.9YPS on 32 (other)attempts |
Droughns:
72/17 |
New
Orleans |
20-17 |
2 |
I
rushing, I passing |
Long
gain:42.� All others, Brooks 5.12 YPA |
Smith:
110/17 LG
42. |
In
general, the Bears have 3 match-up advantages:
- Bear DE v. Steeler OT,
both sides.
- Tommy Harris (or Tank
Johnson) v. Kendall Simmons.
- Nathan Vasher v. any PS
WR excluding Hines Ward.�
In
general, the Steelers �have two
matchup advantages:
- Heath Miller v. either
Hunter Hillenmeyer or any active Bear S.
- Hines Ward v. Charles
Tillman: not every time, but sooner or later.�
Keys:
- Get Heath Miller in
pattern:� Miller is no worse than the #2 receiver
on this 2005 Steeler team.� He has
a matchup advantage against any back 7 Bear defender, excluding Brian Urlacher.�
- Pick the right RB:� The Bears have shown some
susceptibility to power backs.� The
Steelers �have two of the ilk ,
purportedly; however, Bettis is not the guy.� Last week, it was observed here that, in 4 losses, �the Bus was 0/8 on 1st down carries.� The PS lost last week too, a tilt in
which Bettis added 3 carries to his losing total.� So, that�s 0/11.� Here�s the thing (and it�s not tough to
figure):� Bettis is all done.� If the Steelers have any at all RB
suitable to deal with the Chi-D (and that is no sure thing), that man is
Duce Staley.�
- Protect with 7, even 8 �and go long:� Not every down, of course, but look at
the numbers tabulated above.� The Bears
don�t give much but� they do give
it up some.� Two TD should be
enough to win and in winning time, the two PS receivers must be: Ward and
Miller.�� Make it so.�
On the other side of the ball:
O-side Comparison, Chicago and Pittsburgh
|
PPG |
YPG |
TOP |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPA |
QB Rating |
Sack
% Against |
Turnovers |
3rd
down |
Penalty Yards |
Steelers |
22.8 #11 |
310.2 #20 |
30:11 #16 |
123.6 #10 |
8.64 #1 |
101.5 #3 |
7.4% #21 |
19 T-9 |
30.9 #30 |
647 #22 |
Bears |
16.8 #14 |
255 #28 |
28:54 #25 |
133.2 T-5 |
5.15 #32 |
60.2 #32 |
7.3% #20 |
26 #26 |
28.5 #31 |
729 #14 |
� Passer rating and YPA shown are for Roethlisberger and Orton individually; those are not team totals.� #32 doesn�t express Orton�s inadequacy; his numbers are far worse than any starter.�
� These teams are two of the worst converting 3rd downs.� The Bear O is as bad in that aspect as the Bear D is good.�
Bears� O personnel:�
OC Olin Kreutz is a quality player and LT John Tait is an above average starter, somewhat better in the run game than pass.� However, that�s it for Chicago upfront.� LG Reuben Brown is a retread.� Once a top flight run blocker, long ago (in Buffalo), Brown devolved into a penalty machine.� At this point, he�s just holding on.� Literally.� RG Terrance Metcalf is a Kendall Simmons type, like Simmons, this player carries far too much weight for his frame.� By NFL standards, he is small, weak and slow.� RT Fred Miller is stone cold awful; very probably the League�s worst starting RT last season (his last with Tennessee), Miller has not improved one year on.�
Four of those players are on the injury report.� Metcalf is questionable, the others probable.� If Metcalf can�t go, Robert Garza is next in line.� Garza started 15 games last year in Atlanta; he is a good athlete, but out of place outside of Alex Gibbs� system.��������
Muhsin Mohammad is about it for Chi-WR.� Mohammad has 48 receptions; the next guy, Justin Gage, has 20.� Both are big guys: Mohammad is one of the League�s best blocking WR; Gage will get in the way.� The Bears drafted Mark Bradley to provide some downfield threat.� He did, before blowing a knee.� At this point, the Bear air game has no vertical component.�
Perhaps, Mohammad could provide that but not with Kyle Orton at the helm.� Orton does have a strong arm but he is inaccurate and, recently, indecisive.� Not a recipe for success; in fact, here are some results from the Bears� last 5 tilts:
�
|
#
Bear possessions |
#
TD |
Length
of TD drive |
#
TO |
#
punts |
Opponents�
D ranks (YPG) |
Green
Bay |
13 |
0 |
NA |
2 |
6 |
#8 |
Tampa
Bay |
12 |
1 |
1
yard |
1 |
8 |
#2 |
Carolina |
13 |
1 |
8
yards |
1 |
7 |
#4 |
SF |
11 |
1 |
76
yards |
1 |
6 |
#32 |
New
Orleans |
14 |
2 |
38
yards 94
yards |
3 |
6 |
#11 |
� The Bear O has been throttled by some good defenses but San Francisco put them down too.�
� The Bear O has mounted 2 long TD drives in the past 73 possessions; they have scored 5 TD in the same period.� One, 94 v. New Orleans, featured a 36-yard run by backup RB Adrian Peterson.� However, it is worth noting that could have choked off early; PI, away from the play, having nullified a Saint INT.���
Orton has earned some pundits� praise for game management but that is not warranted.� True, he hasn�t had a 5-pick debacle since blowing Cincinnati.� However, he hasn�t made many plays either.� Even casting out that Bengal encounter, Orton�s (revised) pick rate, 3.0%, would be in the middle of the pack.� As is, his 4.2% is near the bottom.� Setting that aside, the key stat is YPA.� Orton�s mark, 5.15, is 0.62 behind #31, Joey Harrington.� Perspective?� In the bad old days here, 1999, Kordell Stewart managed 5.3.�
The Bears have nothing in the air but they do have some RB.� Thomas Jones is a smallish back with good, not great, speed.�� However, he runs low, has great balance and does have some wiggle.� Adrian Peterson is a similar type, but more straight-line.� The Bears cannot get movement on their right but have had good success running inside LT John Tait.���
What to expect:�
The Steelers had to play a quantity of packages in the past two weeks but that will not eventuate this Sunday.� The Bear O is tailor made for the PS base D.� They are run heavy; the PS Okie is designed to crush the run.� They have one receiver, no more; therefore, the PS can play Cover 3, dropping a S into the box and their LB can play going forward, not in reverse.� In that respect, this Bear offense matches the Houston Texans, circa 2002.� Then, a highly questionable Steeler base defeated one offensive offensive unit.� We should expect the same Sunday.�
Keys
v. Chicago O:�
Limit Thomas Jones:� Jones is a far better back than any Houston had in 2002.� If these Bears can get anything done, Jones will be the difference.� Upfront, the key matches are KVO v. Tait and Hampton v. Kreutz.� It is worth noting that Jones can catch the ball too.� His 20 receptions are 3rd on the team.� If the Bears cannot move it on the ground, they will try to make the PS LB cover.��� The 2005 PSD has been outstanding against #1 WR.� However, the PS ILBs have been exploited all season, in the pass and on the ground.� That figures to continue through Sunday.
Nothing easy:� Last week, Green Bay pressed the Bear receivers.� Denied any easy tosses, Orton collapsed, ending 6/17 for 69 yards.� Factor three Pack sacks and the Bears achieved all of 49 yards passing offense.� ��
Special teams:� In a game both defenses figure to dominate, special teams will decide it.� Neither team has an advantage, rather the opposite.�
PS kick coverage: In Baltimore, once, and last week, twice, the Steeler KR coverage unit has been gashed.� All three led to scores; all were momentum killers.�
Bears� punt return: �The Bears are ranked high in PR but that is mainly the result of one +70-yard TD by Bobby Wade.� Wade has fumbled or muffed 7 balls in 38 chances (29 returns and 9 FC). �He lost his job, briefly, to Rashied Davis but last week Davis failed to catch two.� So, if only by default, Wade will be back in Sunday.�
Conclusion:�
Twice, the Steeler franchise has been an incubator for defensive innovation.� At the inception of the Cowher Era, Coach Bill, Dick LeBeau and Dom Capers devised the 3-4 zone blitz. Effectively, that scheme peaked with Blitzburgh, in 1994-95.� Since, except as it was rekindled by that shooting star, Kendrell Bell circa 2001, that fire has all but burned out.�
Earlier, Bud Carson and George Perles reprised Capers and LeBeau (respectively) to Cowher�s Chuck Noll.� Tony Dungy eulogized Carson earlier this week, saying he learned the basis of his so-called Dungy Two when playing in Pittsburgh.� At root, that is a UT 4-3 with a NT cocked on center, a pair of DE who can get upfield or set the edge along with (at least) one elite coverage LB.��� After that, personnel may vary but the essence is immutable.� It all begins upfront.
The beauty of the 4-down, Cover 2 is in its simplicity.� Symmetrical as a brick and, just as we can vault a cathedral, wall a garden or raise a warehouse with (essentially) one common unit, so too are the permutations arising from that base.� For instance: Indy 2005, Carolina 2003 and Tampa 2002 are (or were) rush 4 teams.� Chicago 2005, headed by Lovie Smith, a Dungy prot�g�, not so much; the Bears have the best blitzing MLB in football, and do take advantage.� Still the essence is the same, those teams were built front to back.���
In contrast, the 3-4 Cover 3 Cowher classic is a clockwork; elegant as a construct but easily disrupted.� Jam the gears and it�s garbage.� For this 2005 PSD, the root problem remains unaltered from 2002.� That is, the PS base personnel do not translate effectively in package situations.� More specifically, the PS front personnel ineffectually mimic the 4-3.� That is because their base DE can�t rush; their base OLB can�t rush and their base ILB can�t cover.� Since 2002, the PS secondary has improved but the front design has not.�
Sunday, we will see two defenses that exemplify those twin innovations spawned here, in Steel-no-more- City.� The Bears, modeled on that earlier more generous template, can incorporate elements of the latter.� They do drop their DE in coverage; they do blitz their LB; they do have two (maybe three) DT who can hold the point.�
In contrast, the Steelers� set is overspecialized to the point of extinction.� Citing just one example: they cannot pressure rushing 4, so the Polamalu packages, which effectively eliminate Cover 2.� While the PS D-side deficiencies won�t matter Sunday (the Chicago O is that bad), it is noteworthy that, this time, the D-side unit �exemplifying the very best that this Pittsburgh franchise ever has put forward will be sporting road whites, not black and gold.��
Back of the book:
Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:
2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:
|
First Half |
Second Half |
Final |
||||||
|
Run |
Pass |
Scoring |
Run |
Pass |
Scoring |
Run |
Pass |
Score |
v.
Titans |
16 |
� 9 |
20-7 |
25 |
�2 |
14-0 |
41 |
11 |
34-7 |
@
Texans |
15 |
16 |
20-0 |
17 |
�6 |
� 7-7 |
32 |
22 |
27-7 |
v.
Patriots |
11 |
12 |
10-7 |
10 |
21 |
10-16 |
21 |
33 |
20-23 |
@
Chargers |
18 |
16 |
14-7 |
13 |
12 |
10-15 |
31 |
28 |
24-22 |
v.
Jaguars |
11 |
14 |
14-10 |
14 OT:
3 |
17 OT:
2 |
� 3-7 �� 0-06 |
28 |
33 |
17-23 |
@Bengals |
14 |
� 9 |
�7-6 |
29 |
�6 |
20-7 |
43 |
15 |
27-13 |
v.
Ravens |
13 |
19 |
10-10 |
13 |
15 |
10-9 |
26 |
34 |
20-19 |
@
Green Bay |
� 9 |
10 |
13-3 |
16 |
11 |
� 7-7 |
25 |
21 |
20-10 |
Cleveland |
14 |
21 |
17-7 |
24 |
� 8 |
17-14 |
38 |
29 |
34-21 |
@
Baltimore |
� 6 |
17 |
�6-13 |
11 OT:
4 |
26 OT:
5 |
13-13 � 0- 03 |
21 |
48 |
13-16 |
@
Indy |
14 |
16 |
7-16 |
10 |
15 |
0-10 |
24 |
31 |
7-26 |
Cincinnati |
16 |
20 |
17-21 |
12 |
23 |
14-17 |
28 |
43 |
31-38 |
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Notes:
� Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.
� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.�
� Aborted snaps, ala v. Green Bay and Jacksonville, are not counted either as runs or passes.�
�