The Prophecy (Game #12)

I want a sweep. There is no excuse for it to not happen. The Bungals are a crummy team. Make it happen, Tomlin.

The Bungals applied a greater deal of pressure in the last game than they normally do. That had to do with two issues:

1. Justin Smith inexplicably dominated Marvel Smith for much of the game.

2. Their blitzes and stunts were able to land home frequently.

If it�s third down, you can pretty much bet that Ben is going to get hit. That�s the way things have been going all season. It�s become even worse as time has gone on. The biggest issue facing this OL isn�t that relatively capable bodies aren�t out there (though I wish I could shoot Mahan and Simmons both), it�s that they consistently blow assignments. The talent on this line is average at best, and that is made worse by their absolute confusion. Marvel Smith and Alan Faneca, who have played together since 2000, still haven�t figured out how to pick up a stunt. Beyond that, the Steelers third down back, Najeh Davenport, scares me every time he�s kept in to block. For all his size, he has routinely been missing blocks. He blows assignments at the same rate as the OL themselves, and even when he gets on his man, doesn�t always get the job done. The TE�s chip in with frequent errors of their own.

The Bungals played the Steelers much like the Broncos had in the week prior to that. On early downs they played with a lot of 8 and 9 men in the box. If the Steelers spread the field, or it was an obvious passing down, they dropped back into the cover 2 everyone has been using. They would walk around their LB�s/DB�s and blitz to try and rattle the QB. None of it really worked because they couldn�t take him down. That�s probably not going to change.

Robert Geathers moving back to DE is the biggest change from the prior meeting. This is a nice chance for Colon to show his potential. Last year, he contained Geathers in week 17. Colon has done a very nice job with most of the individual match-ups he�s had this year (with Ellis being the biggest exception). I�m looking for that trend to continue this week.

Starks looks like he may get the nod at LT against this week. Justin Smith used a lot of bull rushes on Smith and he was frequently collapsing the pocket. He played the best game I�ve ever seen him have. This has usually been a favorable match-up for the Steelers in the passing game in the past. Starks has a chance to build off his performance in Miami and show the organization he he�s not a lost cause. This isn�t the most athletic DE in the league. He�s a high motor guy who will take advantage of any laziness or poor play on the part of Starks. I�ll be happy if he contains him for most of the day.

Thornton and Peko, both pushovers in the ground game, could give Simmons and Faneca some issues. Faneca has struggled some with Thornton historically, and it held true in the last game. He�s quick and can penetrate up field if he beats him off the snap. If Faneca can lock up with him, he�s finished. Simmons just sucks and is a liability every week. They�ll stunt with Geathers a few times and he�ll get beaten.

The Steelers will most likely use the same proven formula to beat these guys. Kreider and Davis will see extensive playing time on first and second down. They�ll use a lot of play action, and they should be taking shots down field against this team. They have not had a pass play over 40 yards since the last meeting with the Bungals. They need to start stretching defenses vertically, which they have struggled with almost as much this year as last.

Heath Miller dominated when matched up on Williams individually. None of these LB�s is worth a damn. He should have a nice day.

Leon Hall is now starting, which is a good thing for the Steelers as far as I�m concerned. Hall was burned in the last game. They should target him this time around, as well. I would like to see them try a few fades and go routes. Just let Holmes out run him. They used double moves in the last meeting for the most part, and they�ll probably try it again. You would think Marvin Lewis has caught on and will have him/them prepared for it this time around. Then, they have been attacked this way in every meeting with the Steelers for years now and haven�t adjusted, so the route jumping will probably continue.

Bottom line, I�m hoping the Steelers are more prepared for their blitzes and stunts. They�ve seen this team once. If things do break down, Big Ben has shown that he�ll bail them all out with some of his wizardry.

It starts with the DT�s. Neither Thornton or Peko can hold their own. Simmons and Faneca both get movement on them alone. The doubles were very successful in the last meeting, with very little help being needed before the release to the second level. These guys will frequently be moving 2-3 yards backwards on any given play, and the Steelers (along with everyone else in the league) have had a lot of success getting to the second level. This is a game where Mahan should shine. He�s generally pretty good coming off and getting to those LB�s.

None of the LB�s are guys you need to worry about. Parker has shown the ability to make these guys miss in space. He can and will run around them at different points in the game. Kreider and Davis will have success when they make contact.

Starks on Smith is a bit more interesting. Starks had no problem turning Jason Taylor in the run game last week. Smith is a more sound football player in the run game. He plays strong, and doesn�t get caught outside. He does a nice job staying square to the line. I wrote last week that Marvel Smith was struggling more in the ground game than in pass pro. There may be a trade-off here with Starks. I think he�ll do a better job than Smith.

Colon did not have one of his better performances when he faced Robinson. Geathers is a smaller speed rusher. He was a situational guy last year for a reason. Colon should fair better.

The run game should be more consistent in this game than the last. The Steelers will have the benefit of playing at home (perhaps another sloppy field), and some of the match-ups are probably more favorable than the last meeting.

I would describe the Steelers pass rush in the first game as being close, but no cigar. No one registered a sack, but there were a lot of times where a defender was in Palmer�s face. To his credit, he was able to get throws off in spite of that without making any blunders.

Keisel is the first guy who sticks out to me when I watch the game. He did a very nice job collapsing the pocket. He had Levi Jones backed up into Palmer on a number of players. It�s amazing that Keisel has only 2 sacks on the season. He�s doing a nice job forcing pressure. He has a great bull rush. The Bungals used a lot of three step drops. If they do that again, the DL could do a better job of getting their hands up (especially Keisel, who is particularly good at this).

Anderson is practicing, and it looks like he�ll return for this game. Haggans has had success with his speed rush on Anderson. A knee injury (and the rust) can�t help the matter any. Haggans was close a lot in the last game against Andrews. Give him a little more coverage and he�s right there.

Harrison is a persistent pass rusher. Jones was able to ride him just past Palmer most of the day. This isn�t a great match-up for the Steelers, but with Harrison, there�s always the potential of him making the play because he�s always coming full blast. He�s not going to titty bump with a tackle like Porter.

The Steelers in the last game played a pretty conservative cover 2 for most of the game, and forced Palmer to work his way down the field. They were able to hold the Bungals to FG�s, as we all know. For the pressure to get there, they need to mix up their coverages more. They�ll need to gamble more. If they can get Palmer to hang on to the ball for a split second longer, they�ll get some sacks.

Chris Henry returns for this game. He has already made an impact on this offense. I�ve said it before, but the only guy I feel confident having on him is Taylor. Even then, he has beaten #24 in the past. He�s the closest thing to a Randy Moss the Steelers will have seen. McFadden and Townsend will play him soft. They play everyone soft. They�ll get eaten up underneath at times, but the Steelers seem willing to concede that.

Polamalu looks to be back this week, which is a godsend for Steelers fans. His range is desperately needed to deal with these receivers. The recipe remains the same as it does with most passing teams like this in my book. I would like tighter coverage. We probably won�t get that. Either way, when the football comes in their direction, hit them hard and make them think twice. Polamalu and Smith both played exceptional games in the last meeting. I look for that to continue.

This is a nice tune-up for the Pats in a week. I would like to see Palmer have a tougher time completing passes. The Steelers need to be more aggressive and concede less to these guys. They did better last year against the Bungals when they did so. Tomlin may have interfered a bit here.

Aaron Smith is back. Thank god for that. Andrews and Williams dominated the scrub Nick Eason. Smith hasn�t be as steady in the past two games as usual. Maybe it�s just my imagination. He�s getting moved sideways more than normal and washed out of some plays. A hobbled Smith is better than the back-ups. Luckily, he�s facing a guy who may be a bit hobbled himself in Willie Anderson.

Keisel and Hampton did their jobs nicely in the run game. Hampton was able to control Ghaicuc for most of the afternoon. Last week Hampton was out of place at times. The Dolphins were bringing their guards down on him frequently instead of doubling him. It didn�t phase him much. More often than not he ended up 2 yards in the backfield and out of the play. I want Hampton to do one thing - clog the middle. He does that just every week. He�s the most consistent nose tackle in the league. He should be fine.

Rudi Johnson makes his return. He hasn�t had much luck against the Steelers since 05. If running lanes open up (which they shouldn�t), he can be a load for LB�s and DB�s to take down. In space, this is a mismatch for the Steelers and the Bungals will gain extra yards.

If the Steelers feel the need to bring out an extra DB to play these receivers, and they stupidly take Hampton off the field, I do worry about Johnson having a nice game.

The Bungals are pretty average. They�ve had success with returns, but this isn�t a team we should need to worry about them breaking one.

The offense usually rolls against the Bungals. They should cure some of the recent offensive woes. I would like to see the defense mix up the coverages and play a bit more aggressive. The pass rush was close, and they had success in the two meetings prior to that getting to Palmer. This shouldn�t be close. The team needs to play up to its potential.