Stillers @ Jags Pregame Analysis (Game #12,
@ Jax)
The Stillers face an old divisional
rival, the Jags, who have moved on to sunnier pastures in the AFC South.� The Jags are mired in 3rd place in their new
division, although a win on Sunday would give them basically the same record as
the AFC North-leading Stillers.� The
Stillers-Jags matchup became an instant rivalry when the infant Jaguars beat
the Stillers in their inaugural season back in '95, and ever since this has
been a hotly contested battle between the field generals, Cowher and Coughlin,
and their troops.� Although the
opponents are no longer in the same division, Sunday figures to be no
different.�
* When the Jags have the
ball, they�ll be
led by veteran QB M. Brunell.� The
southpaw no longer bedevils defenses with his scrambling & running, due to
age and injury, but he still remains an adequate weapon while toting the
ball.� He's rushed 33 times for a 5.5
average, so he's a bit quicker than the ilk of Kitna and Grbac.� He's had a solid but unspectacular campaign
thus far in '02.� He's only thrown 11
TDs, but on the other hand, he's only thrown 6 picks.� He probably misses Keenan McCardell, but he does have the
ever-superb Jimmy Smith at one WR, with ex-Stiller Bobby Shaw manning the
other.� Smith's numbers aren't awesome,
but he's quietly putting together a pretty darn solid season with 62 grabs.� Shaw has had a solid season in his first
year as a starter, grabbing 32 balls and averaging 12 YPC.� The dropoff after the starting duo is
considerable, which is a primary reason why the Jags have faltered.� Ex-Raven Pat Johnson is a good deep threat,
and is averging 20 YPC, but he's grabbed only 9 balls.� �Fred
Taylor and Stacey Mack man the RB and FB spots.� Taylor is having a fine season, averaging 4.3 yards a crack and
will most likely eclipse 1,000 yards in this game.� (He needs only 72 yards.)�
Taylor is dangerous both as a ballcarrier and a pass catcher.� Mack is no slouch, either.� He's a solid blocker, and he's not totally befuddled
when given the pigskin, having averaged 5,5 yards per carry and scored a very
impressive 8 TDs.� Kyle Brady is having
a very good season, grabbing 29 balls for 10 YPC, and PeteMitchell is also
averaging the same with his 16 grabs.� The
O-line, once a team strength when the likes of Boselli and Searcy roamed Alltel
Stadium, is now a mish-mash of greenhorns and journeymen, so much so that it's
not even worth my time to list their names or pedigree (or lack thereof).�
The key matchup will be two-fold:� Fred Taylor up the gaping holes of his RT
against Jason GilDong and the WLR; and Brunell playing pitch-and-catch with
Shaw and especially Smith against the softee Stiller defense.� Taylor set the single-game rushing record at
3RS in '00 with 270-some yards, most of which was gained at, under, and around
Jason GilDong.� The Bungals exploited
GilDong's blind WLR last week, and Coughlin, Taylor, and company must be
frothing at the prospect of doing the same.�
Brunell has previously had enormous success playing pitch-and-catch
against the softee Stiller defense, and the softness of this '02 Stiller
defense must have Brunell frothing so badly that he's had to place Hefty bags
over his pillow each night in order to keep his pillows from becoming soaked.� Shaw is probably eager to burn his ex-team,
who spurned him this past spring in free agency.� If the Jags are allowed to capitalize on both of these matchups
with a modicum of success, it could be a long day.�
* When the Stillers have
the ball, it's a
guess as to who will be directing the offense, Maddox or Stewart.� Cowher is keeping mum in order to confuse
the Jags.� I myself am not quite sure
who will start.� Assuming Maddox has
gotten a clean bill of health, he's the logical starter because of the old
adage of "starters don't lose their jobs to injury." But Cowher is
far from a logical coach, and his longtime love affair with Stewart could
easily factor in the decision.� Stewart
has been fairly hot in the past game-and-a-quarter, which could sway the
Stewart-loving Cowher to go with Stew.�
RB is another muddled situation.�
The Fatback, Jerome Bettis, returned to the starting lineup last week,
while Amoz Zereoue was forbidden from carrying the ball even once.� The Jags sport two 1-rounders at DT, Stroud
and Henderson, both of who are tough, athletic, and troublesome.� The DEs are less capable, although cagey vet
Marco Coleman mans the LDE spot, and he could easily give M. Smith some problems.� The LBs are a fairly non-descript crew.� The secondary is led by SS Donavan Darius and
former first-rounder F. Bryant.� The
secondary is hardly dominant, and the Stiller passing game should be able to
find Plex and Hines open for regular, nice yardage.�
The key matchup will be the Stiller ground game
against the Jags front 7.� If Stew
starts, Cowher will order a fairly basic, simplified attack, with lots of
running, especially because Cowher will be enamored with giving the Fatback
20-some carries.� Even if Maddox starts,
Cowher will be conservative, worried about leaving Maddox vulnerable to the big
hit in the pocket.� The burden will
therefore lie on the line to handle the two big DTs in order to pave the way
for Doughboy Bettis.�
* Special Teams: �Last week, Jeff Reed gave the team a big boost in his first-ever
game.� Reed will probably be called upon
at least thrice, so he�ll need to prove it was no fluke. �On the other side, Richie Cunnigham, long
retired from Happy Days, is now the Jaguars' 3rd placekicker of the
season.� The two previous kickers, Epstein
and Seder, kicked like Potsy and Fonzie, thereby giving the former Cowpoke Cunningham
a chance.� The Stiller KO coverage has
been abominable, so Jax KO returner Elvis Joseph has got to be salivating at
the chance to return KOs against such a weakling coverage unit.�
* The battle of the coaches:� Cowhead and Coughlin have long despised each other.� Cowher actually tore a page from Coughlin's
book of tricks, signing former Jaguar center Jeff Smith this week to help
bolster the thin depth at guard & center.�
Coughlin has been playing this game for years against the Black n' Gold,
so much so that, had a weakling like Justin Kurpeikis been cut last week, Coughlin
would have immediately snapped him up.�
* Synopsis: This shapes up to
be a very tough battle for the Stillers.�
Playing in Jax has rarely ever been kind.� The Stillers have won down in Alltel just once, in 2000, which
was highlighted by the infamous Burress "spike" play. Last season,
the Stillers ventured down to J-ville on opening day, and were so dominated,
outhit, and outcoached that the running joke a few days later was that Cowher
was the very first man exonerated by the FBI/CIA for the 9-11 attacks, being
that he couldn't have possibly been smart or clever enough to plan such an
elaborate operation.� The Jags
themselves do not scare me, as age and free agency have ravished this former contender.� But Coughlin does concern me, because he typically
saves his best for Cowher.� And no coach
scares me more than Little Billy -- the dumb, feeble dullard who wouldn't know
a gameplan if it hit him upside the chin.�
The house of horrors in J-ville, combined with confusion at QB and RB
(Bettis plays, Amoz rots), will be enough to lift the Jags to a nip-and-tuck 27-20
win over the Stillers.�