Let's preface this draft analysis by stating that any
"real" draft judgments should be reserved for at least two
years.� Here's my take on what went down
this past weekend with a focus on the strategy behind the Steelers' moves.
The Trade:�
The initial reaction of most fans is that we overpaid to move up and get
Polamalu.� Think about this: just prior
to the Steelers-Chiefs deal, the Eagles jumped up 15 spots from 30 to 15 and
gave up a 2nd round pick.� The Steelers
moved up 4 less spots and gave up a 3rd and 6th instead of a 2nd.� I can definitely live with that.� Also, recall the 2001 trade when Pittsburgh
traded out of an identical 16th spot down to 19.� For those 3 spots, Colbert & Co obtained a 4th and a
6th.� Getting a 4th and 6th to move down
3 spots, while giving up a 3rd and 6th to move up 11 spots in pretty much the
same area of the draft tells me that Colbert understands the art of draft day
trading.
Troy Polamalu:�
I must admit when the trade was announced and I was staring at
Pittsburgh on the clock at #16, I thought they might snag the free-falling Boss
Bailey (more on him later).� I can live
with the trade to grab the guy the organization felt they had to have, since
Polamalu instantly upgrades the speed and intensity of the secondary.� Polamalu is a tackling machine, who has the
speed and agility to learn the nuances of coverage responsibility.� The only real negative is his lack of size
to match up with the bigger tight ends that are now prevalent across the
league.
Alonzo Jackson:�
I was fairly confident we would be taking a "tweener" DE/OLB,
only I thought it would be Antwan Peek - a guy the front office raved about and
had in for a recent visit.� Well Peek
went a few picks later to the Texans in the 3rd, so clearly the front office
put out smoke screens and wanted Jackson all along.� I can live with this pick on the condition that Jackson is
groomed to replace Gildon (for a big salary cap savings) in 2004.� For those that simply assume Jackson will be
a rush end in our dime package next year consider this:� the dime package will include 6 DBs (Scott,
Washington, Polamalu, Hope, Townsend, Alexander/Logan) and 2 DT (combo of A.
Smith, Hampton, Bailey, Kimo, Clancy).�
That leaves 3 spots open in the dime package, and we know Bell and
Porter are the 2 best defensive players on the team.� The coaching staff has realized this too, by stating in not so
many words that Bell will not come off the field next year.� So unless Jackson will replace Gildon in the
dime defense, I don't see a spot for him barring injury.
Ivan Taylor:�
While the Colbert regime has done a solid job on Day 1 of the draft, Day
2 has been a perennial disappointment.�
The disappointment has been more with the strategic intent as opposed to
the results of the moves themselves.�
The drafting of Ivan Taylor put those fears to rest in 2003, as Day 2
looks a whole lot brighter.� Taylor has
tremendous size/speed measurables and is exactly the type of player a team on
the cusp of a championship needs to take a chance on.� Taylor might not become a solid pro - he might even be out of the
league in 2 years, but I for one can live with the risk/reward on this type of
player as his ceiling is nearly as high as Woolfolk taken in Round 1.� Look for Taylor to begin as the #4 or #5 CB
behind Scott, Washington, Townsend, and maybe even Iwuoma as he essentially
"redshirts" a year while improving the overall speed on our special
teams.� With the proper coaching he
could be in our top 3 rotation in 2004 (possibly with Scott and Townsend)
allowing the organization to release Washington for a big cap savings.
Brian St. Pierre:�
Many fans will point to St. Pierre's shortcomings, as he was the #7 QB
in a draft that featured a sharp drop after the top 6.� However, I look at this as another move with
a solid upside.� St. Pierre will begin
as the clipboard holding #3 QB in 2003, who shouldn't see a regular season snap
barring a catastrophe.� Batch was signed
to another one year deal, so hopefully St. Pierre will show enough to move up
to #2 in 2004.� By doing so, the
organization will save approximately $1 million (the cost to obtain a veteran
backup) against the salary cap.
JT Wall: �This pick is a little shady, but I can live with it as 7th
rounder.� The organization seems to fall
in love with certain schools - Colorado in the mid 90's: C. Brown, Figures, C.
Johnson, Steed, etc. and now Georgia: K. Bell, Haynes, Wall.� With Kreider having some contract squabbles
as a RFA and approaching UFA next year, Wall provides depth at a low
price.� We probably could have gotten
him (or someone similar) as a free agent, but couldn't we say the same for
someone else lasting deep into the 7th round.
Overall:� The
organization did an excellent job addressing the major needs:� speed in the secondary and pass rush help to
upgrade a woeful dime package.� Day 1
held to form with solid, productive major college program players, while Day 2
brought a "swing for the fences" attitude that I absolutely love.� Ivan Taylor could truly make this a great
draft as I see Polamalu being a solid NFL player and Jackson contributing
early, while developing into a solid starter.
Around the league:�
The Bungles might soon be getting their name back, as they just had a
great draft netting 4 solid 1st round values in Palmer, Steinbach, K. Washington,
and Weathersby.� Marvin Lewis has
quickly brought a new attitude there, and the organization appears willing to
take the requisite chances it must to emerge from the depths of ineptitude.
The Detroit Lions may have gotten the steal of the draft in
Boss Bailey.� Bailey might be a better
athlete than his brother, Pro Bowl CB Champ Bailey.� Obviously enough teams felt this athleticism doesn't necessarily
translate onto the football field, but I for one feel he'll be one of the 5
best players to come out of this draft.�
I would not have been disappointed if the Steelers had jumped up to grab
him (or as it turns out, even held back at #27 and grabbed him).� Bailey has freakish athletic talents, and
we've all seen players in the past few years with this type of freakish ability
(Kearse, Urlacher) go on to be extremely successful.
My last draft day winner
is Bill Bellicheck and the New England Patriots.� New England scored big time on the trade front, first by dealing
a 3rd round pick this year to Miami for the Dolphins 2nd round pick in
2004.� They also traded their 1st round
pick this year (19th overall) to Baltimore for a 2nd rounder this year and
Baltimore's 1st round pick next year.�
Bellicheck and the Patriots will be positioned very well in the 2004
draft, especially considering the Ravens enter 2003 with Redman and Boller as
their QBs - two largely untested and unproven players.