The Prophecy (Game #9)

The Browns offense was a sleeping giant. It only needed some QB play to wake-up. No one has really stopped them yet, and that includes New England. Going into this game, the Steelers have the league�s best defense by far. This will be their biggest test of the season to date, and this offense is second only to New England�s. The Steelers can not go into this game cocky because these really aren�t the same old Browns.

Teams have been opting to throw on Cleveland all season, and it�s been working. Teams have gone to three wides frequently. The biggest reason is the lack of pass rush. The Steelers used more two TE sets in the first game, and they had success. I don�t expect that to change too much.

It starts with the pass rush in this game. Wimbley is the only man who really has to concern the Steelers as an individual match-up. He�s being moved around a bit more. They have been placing him on the right side to get some more favorable match-ups. They continue to stunt him inside to get him on guards. He had a few hurries in the first meeting. He continues to be disruptive, but can not break your offense alone. Smith contains him, even if he doesn�t dominate.

The Browns don�t blitz much. In the past few weeks they�ve been using three of their OLB�s on the field at the same time to try and apply pressure. McGinest is healthy, but he�s just completely ineffective. Antwaan Peek is probably the better player, but not starting. They bring him out as a situation pass rusher (usually third down). They sometimes put him over the guards. Peek on Simmons is the single biggest concern I have on the OL. Simmons is a turnstile that every team has been exploiting for weeks. The trend should continue.

The Browns aren�t a dangerous blitzing team. They sit back more than other 3-4 teams. They usually rush four, and that fourth man is Wimbley in a DE�s stance. I�ve already said teams like to go 3-wide on them. They may be playing more nickel than their 3-4 base. This usually consists of three actual DL and Wimbley as a rush end.

In the secondary, these safeties are a bit too undisciplined. Jones and Pool bite on a lot of play fakes. We all remember Holmes burning them for 40+ and a TD. Jones is good at reading a QB and active in the box. Roethlisberger has to keep track of him at all times. In man, he�s exploitable. In a zone, he�s dangerous. The Steelers will get individual match-ups on these guys. The TE�s had big games in the last meeting. Spaeth caught a nice TD in front of Pool in the end zone. That�s a match-up I would like to see exploited more this time around.

The rookie Eric Wright is starting on the right. The Steelers exploited him all day in the last meeting. Other teams have followed suit. He�s got the physical tools. He�s still raw. He doesn�t play the ball, but the man. He�s been victimized over the top frequently. Expect some fades and go routes. He gives a lot of cushion, so you can work him underneath and inside, as well.

A lot of that applies to Bodden, as well. Work him underneath and outside. The Browns like to leave these guys alone. They don�t get much safety help. Holly is a guy better suited to zones. These two guys lack top end speed, and Washington and Holmes can out-run them.

They should work Leon Williams over a bit. He�s played a lot this season due to injury. Jackson is out this week. The guy just lacks the instincts and strength to start. They should throw over him frequently.

Roethlisberger has no reason to struggle that I can see.

The inside stuff just wasn�t there in the last meeting. I was hoping it would open up a little bit with Washington out, but his replacement, Ethan Kelley, is probably better. Shaun Smith has stepped in at right DE, and he�s playing very well. The Browns have a good group of four DL, which is a step-up from last year.

If there�s a weakness in the middle, it�s when Simon Fraser steps in. I would key runs at him, and he�s seeing the field more as the season goes on. He was the bum the Steelers ran all over last year in the second meeting. This guy shouldn�t even be in the NFL.

As stated, Jackson should be out for this game. Leon Williams isn�t very good. He�s not the athlete Jackson is. He can�t take on blocks and he over-pursues. Still, you need to be able to get someone on him to exploit the weakness. That will be difficult.

The Steelers and other teams have found the outside running game far more open. I said above that teams have been spreading them out with 3-wides. That usually leaves 6-7 in the box. The Steelers used two TE�s and were able to seal the edge successfully or bounce plays outside. This should be exploited more this time around.

Wimbley looks better against the run compared to earlier in the season. He�s making some more plays. However, it�s still not his strength. The Steelers should run off tackle and outside and wear him down. Spaeth did a nice job last time around. I�ve seen WR�s block him man-up. That really says it all to me.

The run game should have above average success. I�m not expecting a monster day.

This is where things get a bit more interesting. It starts with Derek Anderson. He�s giving his skill guys a chance to make plays, which is something Frye was always too scared to do. His biggest strength may just be his confidence. He�s decisive and makes very quick decisions with the football. Defenses are kept off-balance. Anderson can move and will run, though he hasn�t thrown out of the pocket much (nor has he had success when he has). Accuracy is his biggest strength as a QB. He�s very good on his short and intermediate passes, but his deep balls have been sailing on him. I would say he has good arm strength and puts a lot of zip on his balls.

There are some flaws, however. He�s not so much reading defenses as he is hitting his first options. He tends to lock on to his targets from the snap. He may have to work on some of the small things. Teams seem to be jumping his snap counts. Haggans is particularly good at this, and seemed to do it a few times in week 1. The Pats also seem to have locked in on something and were getting a quick jump. The Pats also never fell for any of his play action. I�m not sure if it�s coaching or he has some tell, but teams in general weren�t biting. I noticed the same thing against Miami.

The Browns offense as a hole right now is all about timing. This is a finesse team. They spread you out and frequently run 3-wides. Carter will see the field a lot. Winslow is occasionally split out like a receiver. They are running an offense very similar to what the Chargers and Dolphins run. That isn�t surprising considering who their offensive coordinator came over from there. The bread and butter of this offense is the intermediate passing game. They throw a lot of deep outs and crossing patterns.

They time their shots down field. This isn�t a vertical passing team, but they will test you deep a few times in a game. They�ve attacked teams vertically following turnovers twice that I�ve seen. That�s a trend to watch out for.  One other interesting note on their scheme.  They may not try no-huddle against the Steelers, but they have shown a quick huddle in past games.  They used it against New England.  It's what you would expect to see from Seattle, and helps to create an up-tempo attack.  

They throw to their RB�s frequently. Jason Wright has had some very nice catches coming out of the backfield and is a threat in space. He�s got some speed. Vickers is what the Steelers would like Carey Davis to be, and is another outlet.

I said in week 1 Braylon Edwards was an elite receiver as long as he could get the ball thrown in his direction. He isn�t explosive, but he�s big and knows how to use his size. He high points the football. He can make plays for his QB. He�s become a great route runner. This is what the Steelers paid Ike Taylor for. I don�t trust anyone on him but #24. I hope the coaching staff feels the same.

Townsend on Jurevicius is a mismatch. He�s lacking in speed but has nice size. He�s also smart, physical, and a bit dirty. He has a tendency to push off. They use him to move the chains, and he�s very good at it. McFadden is a better match-up here.

They try to throw to Tim Carter deep, but it hasn�t worked out. He�s gotten open a few times, but the connection hasn�t paid off (a bit like Washington). He can�t be written off completely.

The Steelers take a very simple approach to guys like Winslow. Hit them, and keep hitting them every time they touch the ball. Anthony Smith should get the nod for the third consecutive week. The Steelers will punish him in the middle of the field. Shutting down Winslow is the second priority in this game behind Edwards. If the Steelers get Polamalu on him for a lot of this game, I expect that to happen. In the first meeting, Winslow had some success working between Farrior and Clark. Other TE�s have done the same. Smith needs and should have a big day. Winslow has a shoulder injury. He is coming off a gutsy performance against Seattle. But he should not be as effective banged up like he is and with these safeties.

Applying pressure is tricky. The best match-up against this OL is Haggans/Woodley on Shaffer. He�s a liability. Thomas is having a great season. I expect and hope the Steelers show pressure and drop back. They need to disguise and confuse Anderson. They can�t let him make easy reads. Get guys in spots he�s not expecting. I drop 7 and 8 frequently. When I blitz, I bring the pressure up the middle. It�s when teams have been most effective. The guards struggle to diagnose and pick-up stunts and blitzes when you don�t show them or disguise well. Movement pre-snap is important. The DL can help out by cutting off their pass rush on quick drops and getting their arms up. Teams have had success doing it against them.

The Steelers should have Aaron Smith back for this game. He was sorely missed. He and Hampton dominate. Shaffer can�t move him, and neither can McKinney. Fraley was absolutely no match for Hampton in the first meeting. He doesn�t move well and isn�t a threat to get to the second level.

This team runs left. It�s not a secret. Thomas and Steinbach are their guys. Both can move very well and they like to pull them. I think both can do the job heads-up. Keisel held his own in the first go around. The Browns will run to keep the Steelers off balance. They get consistent yardage. Lewis is a guy who can break tackles. Wright is a more explosive runner. The threat of the pass could very well open up the run. They�re going to spread the field, and it may fall on the front 7 to stop the ground attack alone. Lanes tend to open in those situations. They�ll take 3-4 yards a pop.

Lawrence Vickers is a very good run blocker. When he gets on LB�s, he�s going to seal them or blow them up. He may be better than Kreider, which is saying a lot.

The pass defense will dictate the run defense this week.

The Browns have a dangerous return games. The Steelers coverage units have been awful the past two games. Their coverage units are mediocre. They have a pretty lousy kicker and punter. This is a concern. The Browns offense doesn�t need any help.

This is a measuring stick game for the Steelers defense. Some will find that hard to swallow, but it�s true. This is a good, balanced offense. They are getting reliable QB play. This game is a good warm-up for the Pats in December. At home, the Steelers shouldn�t lose. This is still an inferior team. But if the defense doesn�t answer the challenge, it could be very dangerous. This Browns team is looking for revenge, and they just may be capable of pulling it out if the coaches aren�t careful. Tomlin did good preparing the team for Baltimore, though. I think he can do the same this week. It may look closer early, but the Steelers should pull away as the game wears on.