Baltimore @ Pittsburgh Pre-game
Since the NFL went to their (6) team per conference playoff format in 1990, 20 of 24 teams to make the Super Bowl had 1st round byes.� That includes every NFC champ and 8/12 kings of the AFC.� Obviously, at (4) byes per year, that�s 20/48 who got the 1st week off, got some rest and went on to glory.� In contrast, just 4 teams of the 96 engaged in 1st round actions came through to the final tilt.� Get a 1st round bye and your chances of getting in are about 42%; fail to do so and your chance drops to 4%.�
At 9-5-1, the Steelers are 3rd in the AFC; to get a bye, they need to win and they need either Tennessee to tumble in Houston or KC to upset Oakland at Alameda.� It�s worth noting that neither the Texan debacle nor the faithlessness displayed here against the Falcons now factors; even if the Steelers were 11-4 at this point, they�d still need to win this weekend and they�d still need the Titans and/or Raiders to fail.� Tied at 11-5, those hypothetical Steelers, given the head-to-head whippings they endured, otherwise would still slip to third.�
Hypotheticals aside, the Ravens are a dangerous but entirely beatable foe.� Considering the Poe O-side:
- LOT Jon Ogden is all-World but ROT Ethan Brooks is a stiff.�� Surprisingly, Porter has had some success against Ogden; surprisingly, neither Smith nor Gildon got much done last time against Brooks.� Still, this match-up favors the Steeler pass rushers.
- The guards, Ed Mulitalo and Bennie Anderson are about 340# each but stiff and slow.� OC Mike Flynn is just a guy; in the last couple weeks, Hampton has pummeled better opposition.� This match-up favors the Steelers newly resurrected interior delay blitzes, whether by Bell, Porter or Logan.� That applies particularly to Anderson.��
- WR Travis Taylor is #1 in Baltimore but would be no better than #3 here; however, Taylor does have (56) receptions for (807) yards and (6) TD.� Randy Hymes was a QB at Grambling, he�s moved in as a starter recently but, so far, has just (4) receptions. Brandon Stokely is out; good thing too since he is quick and small, just the kind of WR that has troubled the Steelers this season.� Ron Johnson is in, this rookie and former Golden Gopher is neither quick nor small.� He has done little so far, with just (10) catches.�
- TE Todd Heap is the Ravens� finest receiver; his (61) grabs are just (9) fewer than the (3) WR listed above.�
- RB Jamal Lewis is a multi-dimensional threat; he has 1241 yards rushing and (45) receptions for 419 yards.� Lewis is a powerful runner but the Steeler base generally handles big backs, the larger question will be what happens should Pittsburgh go to their dime line early.� It is worth noting that Lewis has lost (6) fumbles in (294) carries; that is a very Alstott-esque rate and that is entirely unacceptable.
- QB Jeff Blake has had some big games against the B&G but the WR stable he had in Cincinnati is not at all comparable to the cast of characters about him in Baltimore.� Blake is okay, but just okay; however, it will be important for the Steeler OLB to exercise the kind of leverage that eluded them last Monday against Shaun King and Rob Johnson.
Keys:
Control Jamal Lewis and the Ravens will falter; the Steeler base can accomplish this but it is not at clear that the dime line can do so.� Fortunately, the Ravens don�t have the kind of receivers that will require Tim Lewis to dime-up; so long as the B&G stay in their nickel, or base, cousin Jamal Lewis should be held in check.
Last time, Jeff Blake was sacked once in about (50) attempts.� That�s not enough, not nearly enough.� It�s one thing to turtle on offense when you�re facing teams that can�t score, like the Panthers and King-Bucs.� It�s another thing to turtle on both sides; that�s what the Steelers did last time against the Ravens and that�s the kind of strategy that kills momentum to conclude in, at best, bad wins.� Blake can be had, especially via the kind of gut-rushes we�ve seen with Hampton either paving the way for Bell, Porter or Logan or, amazingly, closing the deal on his own.� The Steelers figure to get outside pressure on the Raven right anyway, it�ll be important to prevent Blake from stepping up.�
With Scott out, the Steelers� best bet in covering Heap may be to match Porter.� Mid-season, 49er LB Julian Petersen took KC TE Tony Gonzales entirely out of their contest.� Porter lacks Petersen�s frame length, however, Heap is no Gonzales; I do believe Joey can do the job.� Of course, this means that Bell stays in to rush and that means the Steelers stay in their base, or a Jones-free nickel.� If not Porter, then Logan might match Heap; either would be fine by me; we�ll see how TL figures it.
The Raven offense is rated 27th @ 281 YPG.� That �s 14 yards ahead of #31, Carolina and
25 yards behind 25, Jacksonville.� We
can reasonably expect the Steeler D-side to handle the Ravens about as well as
they did the Panthers, or for most of the game, the Jaguars.
�On their D-side, the Ravens return just 2/11 starters from their 2000 Super Bowl champs.� Those men are Peter Boulware and Chris McAlister.� Once bulky and impregnable in their dual-monster DT 4-3, the 3-4 Ravens are now light, though mobile, upfront.� It figures you can run on them but, in fact, T-Max passed Baltimore silly in the last go; you�ll remember that the Steelers scored on their first (4) possessions before packing it in the 2nd half.� Of course, Plax got booted in that game and while I consider McAlister to be a quality CB, Plax has owned him in their last (3) encounters.� Presuming Burress stays throughout, I believe the Steelers will do some damage downfield.� Then again, considering that Spike has been instrumental in the Steelers� opening scoring drives, I don�t think we�ll see the kind of single high format both the Panthers and Bucs brought early.� The Steeler O-side has established that they can score early and turtle with the best; they have not established that they can drive the ball on the ground with any winning consistency.� �In years past the Ravens thwarted the Steeler ground game and, with no effective downfield passing attack, the B&G sputtered.� Now, the passing game is in place but there is question as to the run.� I�d expect the Ravens to show some early nickel, pulling Cornell Brown for James Trapp and dare the Steelers to run.� Presuming they can, here are some things to look for:
- Both Burress and Ward have about 1270 yards receiving.� The Steeler record is 1397, by Thigpen in �97.� My nickel is on Spike to break that mark.
- T-Max has around 2640 yards passing; unless he can get 300 in the 1st half, turtle-mode will put 3000 out of reach.
- Steeler RB have just (3) 100 yard games this season; don�t expect a 4th.
- The Steelers have allowed (30) points five times; they have scored (30) points four times including once against the Ravens.� One more will even it up.
Summary:
As a motivator, Bill Cowher must get full marks for the Buc game.� Sure, Sapp had something to do with it but you�ve got to believe that the Steelers were ready, with or without that big boy�s antics.� By winning in Florida, the Steelers qualified for the playoff rounds, accomplishing step one.� Step two is getting a bye and, while the Ravens will play with more intensity than the Panthers, they�ll have very little more talent (except at RB).� Unlike many prior finales, the Steelers will have something on the line this week.� Coast through this close, lose it and they�ll have very little time to re-coup; win and they�ll have their best chance to rest up and march on. Regardless though, momentum is everything in parity-ball and, while the Steelers bye-fate resides elsewhere, they still have their own internal confidence and cohesion factors to consider.�
Fun Facts?
As noted, 20/48 teams with byes have met in the Super Bowl final.� If memory serves, the Steelers have had (5) byes in the Cowher Era.� Those years were (I think): 92, 94, 95, 97 and 01.� The Cowher-led Steelers have reached the SB once, that following the �95 season.�� That�s 1 in 5; evidently, bye-teams other than the Steelers have reached 19/43.� If that is so, then Coach Cowher�s charges are running a bit more than (1) trip below the league average.