2004
Game 8 Preview: Eagles at Pittsburgh.
For
the 2nd week in succession, the Steelers will host what has to be
the game of the week.� These teams are
1,2 in most power rankings.� Though (any
coach will tell ya) there�s a lot of football still to be played, the prospect
of a playoff bye (there, the number is 11-12 wins), or even home field
throughout (12 to 13), has to entice.��
However, there are more pressing concerns.� Both the Eagles and Steelers lead their respective divisions by
just two games.� The winner may go up
three, just as the loser may drop to one; three up is a nice bulge, one, with
eight to play, is inconsequential.�
Then
too, there�s a historical component as, since the time of the Canton Bulldogs
and Akron Pros, only three times have teams faced unbeaten foes back-to-back
this deep in the season.� These Steelers
will be #4; to date, two such teams have won the opener in that kind of skein
but no team has won both.� History repeats,
or so it�s said; the question this week is whether that redeux will be history
long gone (no team having beaten back-to-back unbeatens) or more recent history
as, when the Steelers have the ball:��
- One key aspect in last
week�s win was TOP (the other, +4 takes).�
The Steelers had the ball for 42:58, NE for 17:02.� That TOP bulge, 25:56, was driven by a
dominating run game.� To win this
week, the Steelers will have to reprise that feat.�
Coming
into the Pats game, the PS had run on 56.7% of all snaps.� Last week, +67%; 49 rushes against 24
passes.� Surely, the key possession came
in the 3rd quarter when the PS O ground the ball for 8:35.� NE had just 2 more possessions; then in a
34-13 game, they needed 3, at minimum.��
Of
course, that doesn�t mean the PS must come out running.� In contrast, balance counts as was evident
last week when the Steelers were perfectly balanced (9/9) on their first 4
possessions.� At that point, it was
14-3; only after Townsend brought back a pick for the Steelers� 3rd TD
did the PS go all-run, all the time (well, 40/15).� It�s worth noting that two of those PS TD came off takeways (as
did a 3rd opening the 2nd half).� That is not likely to repeat; however, the
PS ground advantage should as:
- The Philly defense is
built to bring pressure, trading yards for sacks and takeways.� Against that, best to run right them.
Considering
some aspects of the Eagle D personnel:
- Philly goes 10 deep on
the D-line.� Of their (25) team
sacks, D-line personnel have (17), with Jevon Kearse leading the way
(6).� In all, (4) DE have tallied
and (3) DT.� In the latter set,
backup Sam Rayburn leads with (3).�
It�s worth noting that the Eagle backup DT: Rayburn, Hollis Thomas
and Paul Grasmanis, are considered stouter against the run than the Eagle
starters, Corey Simon and Darwin Walker.�
If Eagle D-head Jim Johnson is looking to take away the PS run,
those scrub DT will play a feature role.
- The Eagle LB are
nothing special.� The LB corps has
totaled 2.0 sacks; no LB is better than #4 on the team in� tackles.� That said, backup MLB Jeremiah Trotter is a fairly stout run
down player; this week, he too may take a feature role as he did against
the run-heavy Browns in the Eagles� Game 6.
- Three of four starting
DB were drafted in 2002. That includes both CB, Lito Sheppard and Sheldon
Brown, as well as SS Michael Lewis.�
Those CB are small, both 5-10, but quick; in fact, Sheppard (whose
3 picks leads the team ) is regarded as the fastest player on the Eagle squad.� Philadelphia is low ranked in passing
yards against (242 per game, #21); but their passer rating against is a
respectable #10 (76.9).� More to
the point, the Eagles are #2 in the all-important YPA category; at
6.08, they are 0.25 better than the #4 PS.
- The safety tandem of
Lewis and all-world FS Brian Dawkins make that Eagle team go.� Those two are 1,2 in tackles and, in
all, Eagle DB have (6) sacks, (4) more than the LB group.
- Past the top 4, the
Eagles are thin in the DB ranks.�
One backup safety, JR Reid, is doubtful; the other, Quintin Mikell,
is recovering from a concussion.�
#3 CB Rod Hood is ok, the 4th, rook Dexter Wynn, is a
dwarf.�� Rook Matt Ware, who was to
be #3, got hurt in camp and has yet to be integrated into the Eagle
packs.�
A
few things the PS O must accomplish:
- Locate the Freak:� In the base, Kearse is typically at
LDE, where his match-up with Oliver Ross certainly figures as a key.� In packages, Kearse lines up all over,
including at MLB where, if he doesn�t rush, he certainly may scramble
blocking assignments.�
- Win on 1st
down:� The Eagles thrive in 3rd
and long.� They will put up to 4 DE
on the field (say, Derrick Burgess and Hugh Douglas down with Kearse and
Jerome McDougle roaming); they will, as noted above, bring the DB,
especially Dawkins and Brown.�
- Make the Eagle safeties
declare:� As noted, Dawkins and
Lewis lead the Eagles in tackles.�
That is because the Eagle front can�t play the run.� It�s worth noting that while Philly is
an adequate #17 overall, allowing just 117 yards per game, they are #31 in
YPC against.� Their mark, 4.8,
won�t get it done; only Dallas is worse, at 4.9.� By the same token, that the Eagle secondary is depleted
means that the PS can win downfield, especially against Brown and the
reserve CB.� That is Coach
Johnson�s dilemma, he needs his safeties in the box to play the run, and
he needs them deep, to help those CB.
- Run strong, on any down.
- Throw long, especially on
run downs but, regardless, throw long.�
To help Ben, the Steelers have been max-protecting, keeping in a
couple TE or RB.� Three in a
pattern has worked to date and, as the Steelers� top two WR are better
than the Eagles� #1 CB (and their #3 WR, better than the Eagles� #2 CB),
that tactic should be effective again.
One
last note, on the Eagles� opponents� play selection to date:
|
|
Ran |
Passed
|
Were
sacked |
Run/passes
called |
Remarks |
|
NYG |
23 |
37 |
5 |
23/42 |
Giants
blown out. |
|
Vikes |
19 |
47 |
4 |
19/51 |
Vikes
blew up in the RZ, and were jobbed on a TD call which allowed Terrell Owens
to score off an apparent drop. |
|
Lions |
18 |
39 |
5 |
18/44 |
Lions
blown out. |
|
Bears
|
13 |
43 |
4 |
13/47 |
Eagles
sleep walk thru this one. |
|
Panthers
|
31 |
42 |
2 |
31/44 |
Torpedoed
by Delhomme�s 4 INT; on the season, the Eagles have just 7. |
|
Browns |
34 |
32 |
3 |
34/35 |
Browns
jammed the ball and took it to overtime. |
|
Ravens |
27 |
38 |
2 |
27/40 |
As
evident by the fact that Raven QB Kyle Boller had his best game last week in
Philly, these Eagles can be had through the air. |
In sum,
this: Philly has been in three tight games, on the road against the Vikes, on
the road against the Browns and last week, at home against the Ravens.� The Vikes are a quality team, probably #2 in
the NFC; uniquely, the Ravens score off their D and ST. �The Browns are spotty but their balanced
attack did keep them in it vs. Philly.�
That�s a lesson which, no doubt, the Steelers with their #4 ranked rush
attack have already learned, as evident by the fact they are #2 in the NFL in
rush attempts, just (3) trips behind Denver.�
Good
thing too as, when the Eagles have the ball, the PS D figures to be
overmatched, in some aspects.� Look at
this way, if the Eagles were coming in as they were constituted last season,
without TO, but as figures to be so Sunday without any of their (then) top 3 RB
either, then this matchup would not be considered close.� However, Terrell Owens is the difference,
as:
- In (7) games, Owens has
had 100+ yards (5) times.� Until TO
arrived, Todd Pinkston was their first guy.� Pink had (5) 100-yard games combined over 2002, 2003 and, to
date, 2004.� That is, 5 in 7 for
Owens; 5 in 39 for Pinkston.�
- On the season, Philly
has (14) TD through the air.� Of
those, Owens has collected (9).� At
this point, Owens is #6 on the NFL�s all-time TD list; he�s closing on HOF
Don Hutson (#5, 99), Steve Largent (#4, 100) and Tim Brown (#3, 103).�
Owens
is an all-time guy, as is QB Donavan McNabb.�
In fact, such are McNabb�s gifts that the Eagles can simply ignore those
aspects of a balanced attack, which are generally essential.� McNabb is, obviously, the Eagles� leading
passer; he�s their #3 rusher too and, skill-wise, probably #1.� Like few QB in the league (McNair, Culpepper
and, maybe, Roethlisberger), McNabb can defeat a blitz simply by shrugging it
off.��
RB
Brian Westbrook is the 3rd guy but Westbrook is questionable
Sunday.� On the season, Westbrook leads
the team in rushing and rushing attempts; he is #2 in receptions.� With Westbrook, the Eagles scored 16 TD in
23 quarters; without Westbrook, the Eagles have scored 2 in the past 6.� If he�s good to go, his presence in the pass
game will divert Porter, or one of the safeties.� If not, well, the Eagles are pass first anyway as:
- On the season, Philly
has thrown 247 passes, rushed 161 times.�
That�s a ratio favoring pass at 60.5%.
- With Westbrook
available, the Eagles were 203 pass, 137 run.� That�s 59.7%.
- With Westbrook out,
61.1%; pretty much the same.
As
is well known, the Eagles use the short pass in the same way that most teams
use the run.� Further:
- The Eagles set of
choice is single back.� They are
about 70% pass out of that set.�
Rarely do the Eagles max-protect; instead it�s 5 in a pattern with
options at three levels: short, mid and long.�
- Their second set is
I-back; in that, they�re roughly 50/50.�
Other
Eagle receivers include:
- LJ Smith: a TE with the
speed to get into the seams, generally flexed.� Smith has 3 RZ TD on the season.� With Pinkston questionable, Smith may well be, in effect,
the Eagles� #2 wide-out.
- Chad Lewis:� a 6-6 TE, more a receiver than a
blocker; Lewis is #3 with 21 grabs.�
Mike Bartum is the 3rd TE; of 2 grabs, 1 was a RZ TD.
- The WR: Todd Pinkston
is questionable, Freddie Mitchell is a slot guy; Greg Lewis has very good
speed but little experience.
When
the Eagles get in RZ, they do convert.�
On the season, McNabb is 21/26 for 109 yards with 9 TD and 0 INT.� That�s a passer rating of 108.7, slightly
better than his overall, 102.9.�
Finally:
�
- Against the Pats last
week, the PS got tremendous pressure.�
However, NE scratched their starting RT pre-game and, in the 3rd
quarter, LT Matt Light went out.�
In contrast, Eagle LT Tra Thomas is good to go.� RT Jon Runyan is listed as
questionable; however, Runyan has made 119 straight starts (dating back to
the opener in 1997).� Chances are,
Runyan will go Sunday.�
- Too bad, as, more than
likely, it was pressure that defeated those Pat TE, Dan Graham and Chris
Fauria.� The PS have had trouble
covering TE but last week that wasn�t necessary.� Brady put up 40+ balls but per the play-by-play at nfldot,
only one was directed towards Graham, and one towards Fauria.� Neither were complete but that�s not
the point. This is: with scrubs at OT through much of the second half, NE
had to keep in their TE.� Coach
LeBeau defeated those guys with pressure but, presuming the Eagle OT are
in fact good to go, that�s going to be a much tougher assignment this
week.��
- Directly, as in
Porter�s sack and strip, or indirectly, as in Townsend�s pick, pressure
creates scoring opportunities.� In
general, a take averages out as worth something between 4 and 4.25 points
per.� Off that, +4 takes would be
worth 16-18 points; in fact, the PS followed 3 takes with 17 points; add
in DT�s bringback and that�s 24.�
The
Eagles do have a tremendous matchup advantage with Terrell Owens (who works the
right far more often than not) against Willie Williams.� Beyond that, the Eagles have an advantage
with their stable of big WR and athletic TE against the Steelers� generally
smallish secondary.� Against that, the
Steelers� pressure packages, which, this week, will be up against far better
opposition than last.�
It
has been said that these Steelers found the answer to that spread attack last
Sunday but, well, NE did score 20 points in just over 17 minutes.� The real deal last week was TOP and, if the
PS wins Sunday, that will, again, be a deciding factor.���
Note
to readers:
For
the next two weeks, there will be no pre-game here.� The Steelers have played both the Bengals and Browns previously;
I�ve little to add to previous comments, which may be found in the
archives,� or summarizing those here:
- The Bengals couldn�t
stop anyone then.� They still
can�t.
- The Brown run game
figures to test Chris Hoke and the rest of the Steeler run D.� In the best case, Kendrell Bell will be
good to go by this point.
See
you in a couple weeks when the po� little rich boy�s Skins come to town.