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Week 15 in Review

December 16, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Total yards rushing

 

Long time readers here may be familiar with our Week in Review feature.� This work is stat-focused with twin intent, to identify those components that contribute to winning football and to find some means of evaluating those items� relative weight.�

 

Week 15 in Review:

 

 

Previous Total

This Week

Year to date

WF to date

Teams that won this category but lost their game

3rd down conversions

142-61-5

12-4

154-65-5

1.40

Niners, Vikings, Chargers and Cards

TOP

141-66-1

10-6

151-72-1

1.35

Fins, Steelers, Lions, Vikings, Chargers and Cards

Total Yards Offense

134-68-6

� 9-7

143-75-6

1.30

Jags, Niners, Vikings, Seahawks, Ravens, Chargers and Cards

Rushing Attempts

154-43-11

10-4-2

164-47-13

1.52

Fins, Lions, Vikings and Cards

YPA

144-55-9

11-5

155-60-9

1.42

Jags, Niners, Vikings, Ravens and Browns

>/=+2 Sacks

� 79-24

� 5-1

� 84-25

1.54

Skins

* Red Zone (Efficiency)

100-49

Not available

100-49

1.34

 

* Red Zone (Trips)

121-29

NA

121-29

1.61

 

Takeaways (>/=+2)

� 90-7

� 1-0

� 91-7

1.86

 

Takeaways (+1 only)

� 40-25

� 7-1

� 47-26

1.29

Steelers

 

  • Red zone stats for Weeks 12 and 15 were not available.

 

Note:� The index figure, WF (winning factor) is calculated as # wins/0.5 total games in category, ties are counted as � wins; WF figures range between 1.0 and 2.0.� See the article, 5 Weeks in Review (October 2003), for various caveats concerning the categories posted above.

 

Coulda shoulda, teams that found a way to lose:

 

  • The Steelers were the only loser among all team with any takeaway margin.� After the game, Coach Cowher had this to say: �I don�t know if you could have done a better job with the weather like this.�� Hey Coach, here�s something to consider: in that kind of weather, run the damn ball.� That goes double when your opponent comes in with the #32 run-d in football.

 

  • In milder conditions (some snow, little wind, no sleet), Rudi Johnson ran for 174 yards as the Bengals whipped the Niners.� Well, SF lost 3 fumbles too but, you know, there�s a nice symmetry with Johnson�s effort and that of Curtis Martin, who got the same total rushing against the Steelers.

 

  • A week after beating those Bengals in their divisional showdown, the Ravens blew one against the Raiders.� Not easily done but (-3) in the take area usually turns that trick.

 

  • The Vikings went up and down the field against Chicago.� The Bears� sole advantage was in takes but that (+1) was huge.� With 1:02 remaining, Culpepper had Moss on an EZ fade; however, rook CB Charles Tillman got up with Moss, wrestled the ball out and came down with a game-saving INT.� For sure, Tillman, a high 2nd last spring, has emerged out of last spring�s crop as the #3 CB.� He may get beyond that.� Vike RB Onterrio Smith, a 4th round pick last spring, had over 140 yards rushing.

 

  • For a change, the Redskins protected their QB, to some extent.� Despite that, Tim Hasselbeck had an astonishingly bad day; 7/27 with 4INT and, net, a 1.0 YPA.� Dallas rook CB Terence Newman had 3 picks.� On the season Newman, drafted 1.05 last spring, has 4 INT and 19 PD; pretty much, that�s the haul for (4) Steeler CB.�

 

  • Late in a tight game in St. Louis, Seattle WR Bobby Engram was running ahead of Ram LB Tommy Polley. With no weather in the RCA Dome, with an accurate QB like Matt Hasselbeck, game over, right?� Yeah but not in the S�Hawks favor: Engram got leg-whipped by an official, down he went and down went Seattle too.� At this point, Seattle, a momentum monster from last season, one on which Coach Cowher has modeled this late season strategy, is shaky for the 2003 playoff.�

 

  • The Browns had 18:57 TOP; obviously, Denver had 41:03.�

 

Steeler Index:�

 

  1. Beyond doubt, the debacle against the Jets signaled a new low for game planning here.� Of course, the last lowest point was September 2002 when, a week after watching his guys get passed stupid in New England, Coach Cowher prepared for a smashmouth Oakland Raider offense.� You might remember that Rich Gannon threw the ball more than 60 times that night; you might remember too that the PS were, at no time, in that game.� Well, they were in it last weekend but despite trailing just 6-0 at the half, despite winds so heavy that, earlier, after the PS won the toss, Coach Cowher elected to take the wind and give up the ball, despite snow that turned to sleet as the game dragged on, despite all that, the PS came out for the 2nd half to run just 12 times while passing 27.�

 

  1. Coming in, the Jets had the #32 run-d in football.� The Steelers ran 24 times and passed 38.� Naturally, they lost.

 

  1. Previously, the Steelers had faced Oakland.� Coming into that game, the Raiders had the #32 run-d in football.� The Steelers ran 40 times and passed 28.� Naturally, the Steelers won.

 

  1. Against the Jets, Jerome Bettis averaged 4.25 YPC; Tommy Maddox averaged 3.60 YPA.� Against the Raiders, Bettis averaged just under 4.0YPC; Maddox averaged 9.5 YPA.

 

  1. Chad Pennington�s numbers looked good (under the circumstances) but consider this:� RB Curtis Martin caught 4 balls for 54 yards including a long gain (LG) of 29; FB Jerald Sowell caught 2 balls for 24 yards including a LG of 20.� Each of those LG set up Jet scores.� Pennington was 15/25 for 144 on the day, which is to say, other than those 6 RB receptions, he was 9/19 for 66 yards (3.47 YPA).� What�s the point?� Well, the Steeler pass game is designed vertically but the weather took that away.� The Jet pass game is designed horizontally and the weather attenuated but did not eliminate that component.� Sure, the PS throw to their RB; Zereoue had 2/10 and Bettis 3/7 but, you know, those stationary screens really aren�t the same as the swing or flare, catch and run balls that gave the Jets what little air offense they did achieve.� Check last week�s Next Opponent section for the key matchup as regards the NYJ pass attack.

 

  1. In the 4th quarter, the PS got to the RZ twice but came away with nothing.� The first time, the O-side had 6 plays from the Jet 6 but didn�t score; the second time, 4 plays from the Jet 16 but not even a first down.� Included in that, 0/7 by air.� The targets?� JR, Tuman, Breuner, and Kreider.�� Ward had one thrown his way too but that�s it (well, he did defend another ball but that was intended for Tuman).� Spike was on the pine, I guess; hey Coach, way to go with those players that give you the best chance to win.�

 

  1. On the plus side, Deshea Townsend did defend (3) passes, giving him (9) on the season. That is T-1 among all Steelers although league-wide, that number is not in the top 40.� In fact, (31) CB have 11 or more, including 4 rookies (Newman (19), Trufant (18), Tillman (12) and Sammy Davis (10)).

 

  1. Jeff Reed was 0/2; last season�s Cinderella story, of late, Reed is kicking as if he�s wearing glass slippers.� Remember that 6/6 in the Jags game; remember Coughlin�s slack-jawed incredulity?� Well, Reed has made just 6 of his past 13.��

 

  1. The mainstream media are voting for the Steelers� 2003 MYP.� Marvel Smith is the obvious choice; the Steelers are 3-1 with Smith playing significant minutes and 2-8 otherwise.� However, if 4 games doesn�t qualify, then Alan Faneca.

 

  1. �They�ll be electing team ROY too; Ike Taylor would have my vote.

 

  1. �At present, the Steelers would be drafting 1.09, 2.43 and (because Houston gave up their 2nd in the supplemental draft last spring) 3.73.

 

Next Opponent:

 

  • Last in pass defense in 2002, San Diego took 3 DB in the opening two rounds but so far that really hasn�t paid off.� Against the Bolts last week, Brett Favre threw for 4 TD; now, Favre has done that before but this year�s version is not the Favre with whom we are familiar.� Hampered by a broken thumb, the great Packer had 7 picks in 3 preceding games.

 

�        Curtis Martin gave the PS more than they could handle last week, both rushing and as a receiver.� Now. Martin is a likely HOF guy and he�s (obviously) still very effective.� However, he�s not the best RB in the AFC; LaDainian Tomlinson is.� Heading into last weeks game, this LT had 78 receptions to go with his well-known productivity on the ground.�

 

�        In effect, Drew Brees is trying to hold off Eli Manning for the #1 QB spot in San Diego.� Brees was benched for over month, came back last week to throw for over 360 yards.� However, that took 48 tosses and, as we saw in Week 14, that generally describes a loser.

 

Appendix:

 

Results observed in the previous season are tabulated below.�

 

 

Regular season 2002

Winning Factor (WF)

Total yards rushing

168-67-5

1.40

TOP

176-63-1

1.47

100 yard rushers

84-37

1.39

>/= +2 Takeaways

107-13

1.78

YPA

186-48-6

1.55

 

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