Steelers Draft 2007
When Commissioner Roger Goodell approaches the draft podium
around
This effort will attempt to collate the wealth of readily available information and provide a factual based assessment of what we might expect come April 28th.� Any conclusions and observations will be my opinions, and although one of a myriad of possible outcomes, should be representative of the Steelers FO.
Let�s start then.
The Past
Any look into the future requires examining the past. �With a new head coach, one constant remaining with the PS brain trust is Kevin Colbert.�� Let�s examine how the Steelers have drafted during his tenure as General Manager.
Notes and observations:
�
54 total draft
picks
�
31 selected on
offense and 23 on defense.�
�
20 Day 1 picks
equally divided between Offense/Defense
�
34 Day 2 picks
�
One LB drafted
since 2002 � Rian Wallace
�
No RB drafted
higher than round 5 and generally no earlier than round 7
�
Only 4 Day 1
picks along D-Front 7
It must be added that Colbert has shown a willingness to
wheel and deal during draft day, usually drafting up to pick a targeted player,
case in point 2001-Kendrell Bell, 2003-Troy Polamalu, 2006-Santonio Holmes and
to a lesser extent trading down in 2001-Casey Hampton and 2006-Anthony Smith
and Willie Reid.� Interestingly, when in a
similar situation to what they face in 2007 (with pick 15), 2001 PS were able
to move down slightly from 16 to 19 and still draft the player they coveted,
Casey Hampton.�
Draft day trade summary:
�
2001: Steelers
trade no.16 to the NYJ for the no.19 overall, the no. 111 overall (4th)
and the no. 181 overall (6th) and select Casey Hampton, OT Mathias
Nkwenti and DE Rodney Bailey.� The
Steelers also trade the no. 50 (2nd) and no. 112 (4th) to
the Patriots for their no. 39 overall (2nd) and select linebacker
Kendrell Bell
�
2003: Steelers
trade no. 27 overall, no. 92 overall (3rd) and no. 200 overall (6th)
to the KC Chiefs for no 16 overall (1st) and select SS Troy Polamalu
�
2004: Steelers
trade no. 44 overall and no. 107 overall to the Indianapolis Colts for no. 38
overall and select cornerback Ricardo Colclough
�
2006: Steelers
trade no. 32 (1st), no. 96 (3rd) and no. 129 (4th)
to the NYG for no. 25 overall and select Santonio Holmes.� Steelers trade no. 64 (2nd) to the
Minn. Vikings for no. 83 (3rd) and no. 95 (3rd) and
select Anthony Smith and Willie Reid
Overall, the Steelers have done a good job in the first round and an adequate job on day1; however, note round 2 reaches with Zo Jackson and Colclough.� First round picks have been Plaxico Burress, Casey Hampton, Kendall Simmons, Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger, Heath Miller and Santonio Holmes.� First round has alternated between offense and defense until 2004, with 3 on offense since.
Second day picks total 34.�
Results have been abysmal at times with only
As for positions, PS has invested most heavily in WR, DB and OL.� Current WR roster while promising lacks size and deep speed, (exception Holmes).� Obvious need is finding a physical red zone target capable of eventually replacing Ward. Current DB set while mostly young and talented could use added depth at corner.� OL may be viewed as unsettled at this time with possible Faneca trade and 2008 free agency concerns so �young turks� must step it up or be shown the door. It�s interesting to note that for a team predicated on their RB and LB, these positions have been generally overlooked during the draft.� Perhaps the lack of depth at these positions can be directly traced to this draft day oversight and thus represent key areas to address for 2007.
Setting the Roster
After examining draft tendencies another piece of the puzzle is determining how many of the 9 draft picks have a realistic chance to make the roster.� Or better to ask where are the holes and where is depth needed?� Getting to a 53-man roster a notional depth chart is provided as follows.
Six or maybe seven picks appears to be the absolute maximum
to expect.� Examining the current roster
LB, DL and OL stand out. �At LB, the loss
of Porter, Haggans 2008
Adding versatility and depth along the DL should also be addressed.� The perfect fit would be a combo player capable of playing both DT/DE.� This would allow PS to develop a rotation, keeping players fresh, as well as the necessary bodies to play 4-3.�
O-Line is clearly becoming an area of concern.� With Faneca now forcing the FO hands, PS may address OL earlier than later.� Even though it has been reported PS will not target OL in round 1 that remains to be seen. (Exception, trade down scenario). �Depth is also a concern and while free agent acquisition Mahan was a step in the direction finding another versatile mauler capable of playing both G/OT is still a must.
RB and CB must also be addressed.� For obvious reasons it�s imperative to reduce the number of touches for FWP this year.� Finding a complement for Willie, my definition being someone capable of �starting�, has to be drafted this year. While we�re not talking round 1or 2, certainly no later than round 4.�� As they say you can never have too many CBs, so look for a day2 pickup to add depth and competition at corner.
Top it all off with a big WR coming in to contribute on ST and provide a red zone option and there you have it.
Player Visits
How does this correlate with player visits. To set a draft board, let�s examine:
Observations: As detailed in the roster review, player visits, from a positional standpoint tend to agree with future roster needs.� There is no doubt D-front 7 will be drafted early and often.� What�s surprising is the amount of DL candidates brought in, possibly indicating a desire to go 4-3, or maybe more affirming the need to add versatility and quality depth up front.�
While seven WR were brought in, most carrying day1 grades, Colbert at the pre-draft news conference stated, �receivers are as deep as I�ve ever seen�, �I think you can go well into the second day and you�re still going to come away with a quality receiver.�� It�s possible as intimated by some that this may be a FO strategy to entice trade up interest.� Whatever the case, unless Jarrett would fall in their laps round 2, I wouldn�t expect them looking earlier than round 3-4.�
It�s hard to make assumptions based on the OL visits but perhaps
more on �gut� feel, unless Sears/Blalock are available at no. 46 then expect a mid-round
selection in round 4-5 to bring on a versatile and athletic player capable of
playing multiple positions.� Alan Barbre
would be a good choice and an example of likely candidates. �Note:
There have been rumors lately of Joe Staley being PS first round pick.� While I think they really like him, recent
league sources stated
Several notable CB candidates were brought in to the south side complex.� This does not necessarily indicate PS will draft CB round 1, but more than likely represents BPA if other targeted players or trade down possibilities are exhausted. More than likely look for PS to address CB day 2.�
At RB, don�t fully understand the players brought in.� Pittman while a 2nd round pick is on the smallish side and does not represent value to PS at 2.� Wright could be a pick but past injury history and availability of similar RB skill-set in round 4-5 makes him no sure thing. �However, it�s important to note that PS shouldn�t wait too long to pull the trigger on RB if they want someone who can step in and start if necessary.� An interesting factoid found on Football Outsiders is an article titled �Draft Position�.� It takes all �starters� from the 2006 season and uses them as data points to determine when the best time to draft a position is.� For RB from the article, �It�s less imperative to grab a runner in round one, but the well appears to dry up after round four. It doesn�t appear that you have to use a top pick to get one of the better runners, but it certainly improves your chances of success.�
Note only one starter after round 4 (Mike Anderson) and only 2 undrafted FA�s, (Shipp and FWP).� The point is, to contradict certain long held beliefs; you�re not going to find RB talent in round 6 or 7.� Give thanks to FWP because he most certainly is the exception to the rule.
TE is interesting; both were brought in late and have outstanding size (ea 6�7�), can catch the ball and are adequate blockers.� In addition, Spaeth was voted top TE in the nation.� Instead of WR, its possible PS could look for mid-round TE to provide their red zone threat as well as replacing Tuman. Both good things IMO.
Press Conference Nuggets
It�s always good to
pay attention to Colbert�s pre-draft comments as they provide useful insights
into FO mindset.� Unless of course you
think they�re blowing smoke, which I do not.
�
Nugget #1: Colbert, �We�re picking number 15 as
everybody knows.� It�s less likely that
we�re going to go up.� It�s very
expensive to get up into that top echelon.��
I agree that PS has no interest in moving up, in part for the financial
reasons mentioned as well as the number of draft picks you will have to give
up. With holes at multiple positions PS FO must maximize the value they get
with all nine picks.� With only 5 elite
players in this draft (Calvin Johnson, JaMarcus Russell, Adrian Peterson, Joe
Thomas, LaRon Landry) its likely PS determined a move up to be cost
prohibitive.
Nugget #2: Colbert, �Trading down could be an option
for us.� �This is probably a good draft where more picks midway through is
probably a good thing because there are good players available in those three,
four-round areas. That could be interesting to us.� �Look for PS to entertain trade down offers in
round 1.� If no deals they will pick
the�targeted� player on their draft board.�
With at most 6 roster spots available, PS should be aggressive in
packaging late round picks in order to move back up in rounds 2-4.�
Nugget#3: Colbert, �If you look back at our draft history, at least since I�ve been
involved with it, we�ve always alternated offense and defense until the last
three years, we�ve been straight offense.�
That doesn�t mean we�ll take a defensive player this year, but we got a
little older on defense from a depth standing than you�d like to be.�� Bingo, PS will draft defense round 1 and again
before end of day 1.
Nugget#4: Colbert, �Say you have a group of five, and
the top rated guy is a QB and the bottom rated guy is a CB.� �If they�re rated
close, you�re going to take the CB, because need does factor in at that time.
As I�ve said before, the mistake we�ve made is if you need something and you go
to the next round on your board and you take him, and leave a better player on
the board.� In the end that will catch up
to you.�� This refers to PS grouping
of four to five players that they can choose from in each round.� This statement is really important because it
says Colbert has learned from making the mistake of reaching for players, those
being Jackson and Colclough in Round 2.�
Do not look for reaches in this draft and expect PS to stick to their
board or look to trade down.
Pulling it
together
Let�s pull this all together and attempt to develop a mock draft.� What have we learned?� From a pure need standpoint D-Front 7 has been neglected for far too long.� There is a gaping hole at ROLB with the departure of Porter and depth, youth and talent could be upgraded at LB, DL and OL.� Down in priority, a no.2 RB along with big WR are needed.� Next, is CB.� While there are concerns with some, IMO CB is not a major need. I believe PS is not ready to give up on all their young CB talent and will attempt to coach them up.� However, look for depth to be added in this area.� Thus, needs are set from left to right in decreasing order of priority, with LB being the most glaring need.� (Refer to appendix for a statistical summary of LB�s drafted by PS organization.)
LB � OL � DL � RB �
WR � CB
Note: A lot has been made of finding a pass rusher in
this draft.� PS has quite successful with
not having �elite� rushers on their roster.�
The last elite rusher was probably Kevin Greene and he played LOLB.� Steelers ROLB traditionally been more
versatile all around athletes who can contribute to the pass rush.� PS relies more on scheme and zone blitz
techniques to register their sacks and while they could target a pure pass
rusher they more than likely would address this area with multiple picks.
5 x 5
As mentioned, PS usually has 5 players rated on their draft board for each round leaving them with viable options in case of trades or unexpected picks.
Coming up with the 5 X 5 Table (Rounds 6/7 not worth
predicting):
Mock Draft� �(5 Rounds only for this effort)
�
We�re finally ready for the mock, but before we pick; some assumptions.� As mentioned PS will not move up in round 1 and trading down is no easy task; as you know it takes two to tango.� Remaining firm at 15 we have the following:
Round 1:
Round 2: Aaron Sears (OG/OT).� Rated no. 40 on Mayock�s Top 64. �PS moves up 6 slots to draft, swapping 2nd rounders in addition to adding 5th and 6th rounders.� Massive, with good strength and core power.� Is most natural inside and would best fit a smash mouth offense such as the Steelers.� Is agile enough to help outside, and could be tried at left tackle, but has a much higher ceiling when used inside. �Sears adds versatility and talent on the OL as well as added insurance looking down the road in 2008.���
Round 3: Ryan McBean (DE/DT).� Naturally athletic and can fit in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 front as a base left end or stay inside tackle.� There is value in his versatility.� Shoots the gaps and creates penetration, able to make plays behind the LOS.� Although a little raw, his combination of size, quickness and athleticism is not easy to find.� Has lots of upside.��
Round 4a: Courtney Taylor (WR)�� Very good size (6�2�) and athletic ability.� Is tough and a good blocker.� Is quick in and out of routes and has soft hands.� Runs field fast and has nice run after the catch ability.� Overall, a complete football player lacking only elite, top end speed.� Compares favorably to Muhsin Muhammad.
Round 4b:� Kolby
Smith (RB) ��Well built with a solid
frame and naturally athletic posting solid combine numbers.� Is versatile, having lined up as a one-back
and at fullback, will give solid effort as a blocker.� Has natural hands and shows some run after
the catch ability.� Has the physical
gifts to develop into an ideal backup.�
Does a lot of things well but nothing great.� Could turn out to be a better pro than
college player.
Round 5: CJ Gaddis (CB) (may require trade up w/round
7 pick) Has very intriguing measurables and great size.� Matches up well with bigger receivers and can
press them at the line.� Solid tackler
and shows a burst.� Has special teams
value and a lot of upside.� Versatile,
having lined up at corner and safety.
Or an alternative mock:
Round 1: Anthony Spencer (DE/LB)
Round 2: Ikaika Alama-Francis (DL)
Round 3: Tony Hunt (RB)
Round 4: Alan Barbre (OL)
Round 4: Laurent Robinson (WR)
Round 5: CJ Gaddis (CB)
There you have it.� I would like to acknowledge the following resources, the dot coms: NFLDrafthistory, Football Outsiders, KFFL, PFW and NFL.� Numbers and bios referenced mainly from PFW 2007 draft preview and less from Lindys and ESPN.
Appendix
