Week 12 in Review:
Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�
Category |
Previous |
This week |
Year to date |
Won this stat but lost
the game |
Total yards rushing |
102-43-3 |
9-7 |
111-50-3 |
NYG Jacksonville Green Bay Detroit Tennessee Minnesota Kansas City |
TOP |
103-44-1 |
11-5 |
114-49-1 |
Green Bay Detroit Tennessee Kansas City San Francisco |
100 yard rushers |
54-20 |
5-4 |
59-24 |
NYG Jacksonville Arizona Kansas City |
>/= +2 Takeaways |
64-6 |
10-0 |
74-6 |
|
YPA |
112-31-5 |
14-2 |
126-33-5 |
NYG Tennessee |
Futility Index:
For the most part,
takeaways leveled any rushing or TOP advantage.� The Giants were (-2), Green Bay was (-3), Minnesota reverted to
form with a (-3).� �A week after stomping the Steelers, the
Titans beat Baltimore in every phase but blew up with a (-4).�
New Orleans was
upset by the Browns mainly because Deuce didn�t play but the Saints (6)
turnovers certainly didn�t help; they were (-4) on the game.
Houston lost every
phase but takeaways; they beat the NYG despite averaging 3.2 YPA.
Carolina has been
beaten twice by Atlanta; the combined score is 71-0.� Last week, the Panthers played all (3) of their QB. �None did much, though Randy Fasani played
well to raise his season QB rating to 9, (yes nine).� The Panthers aren�t beating anyone but each other just now and
(-5) sure didn�t help their cause.
Steelers Index:�
- Commencing with Game 4 against the
Saints, the Steelers have averaged 28.83 PPG.� While most of that production came with T-Max at the helm,
it is worth noting that Kordell Stewart played very effectively in directing
the O-side to 29 against the Bengals. ��Since returning to action, Kordell has been 35/43 with (3)
TD and (0) INT; you really can�t ask for more.
- Some deep thinkers have proposed that
the Steelers� D-side woes arose when their offense began scoring, and
scoring fast.� You know the TOP
argument; well, last week, the Steelers possessed the ball for 34:08.� That is very similar to their TOP average
thru-out 2001.� That year, their #1
ranked defense allowed just less than 259 YPG; last week, with equivalent
rest, the not-so-big-but-extremely-nasty D allowed 352 yards.� Last year, only (3) teams scored (20)
or more; last week, the Bengals got (21) and, if TJ Housemandzadeh doesn�t
fumble, well, who knows�
- Kordell might be the kind of guy who
learns by watching, not by talking.�
He had the better part of (7) games to watch T-Max run the offense
and, since then, has played with a high degree of resolution.� His 22/26 against the Bengals was a
career best; on the downside, his previous high was 22/28 against the
Titans in November 1998.� That season
was the beginning of the dark days; Kordell has looked great before but whether
or not he has achieved some acceptable level of consistency remains to be
seen.
- The D-side has achieved consistency;
they are uniformly awful on third down.�
The Bengals converted 7/15; that 46.66 % is only slightly below the
Steelers� season mark.� Last week,
Coach Cowher suggested that his staff would be looking at their schemes
rather than personnel.� Well, he
was halfway truthful; in fact, Mike Jones played a good deal on 3rd
down; presumably, he was in for one of the DB, presumably, Hope.� That does constitute something of a
scheme change but certainly not any rational revision.� Jones had been inactive since October
and, unsurprisingly, contributed little on Sunday.� MJ did flop on a fumble but otherwise
had (0) T, (0) PD and so on.�
Amazingly, Coach Cowher assigned his newcomer play-call duties;
check this, from Monday�s PG:
�Mike Jones stood in the Steelers� huddle and began barking out formations to his teammates.� As Jones looked around, he noticed the players had quizzical looks on their faces.�� (Said Jones), � I was mixing them up with the Raiders� defenses� Everyone was looking at me like �What are you talking about?�
What indeed?� Jones didn�t know
the nomenclature, got trucked at the goal line on Dillon�s 2nd TD
and, later, got tooled by Bengal rookie TE Matt Schobel for the Bengals� 3rd
score.� Thank God, some stiff like
K-Bell wasn�t in the nickel and, thanks again, that somebody like, say, 9-year
vet and D-side captain Jason Gildon wasn�t allowed to call out the
defenses.� ��
- For the 2nd time in (3)
weeks, the Great-Leader-Protector managed to blow a (17) point margin.
Ultimately the Steelers won (this time), however, the entire seventeen had
disappeared before the B&G, down 20-21, came back; it is not clear
whether this outcome goes to further CC�s glorious mark-with-a-10-point-margin
of 71-1-1, or whatever.� �
- Back to the QB: T-Max is now 7th
in the NFL with a QB rating of 91.0; he is 2nd in both TD% and
YPA with 6.8 and 8.00 respectively.�
Kordell Stewart is (14) passes short of any ranking but, leaving that,
his 85.2 rating would put him 17th between McNabb and Brooks;
his 4.3 TD% ties with Garcia and Couch; his 6.81 YPA is between Warner and
Brunell.� There are some solid
starting QB clustered around Stew; whoever starts from here on in for the
B&G projects to get the job done and whoever gets dealt this
off-season projects to bring a nice return.
- The kickoff coverage units allowed the
Bengals +31 yards per return.� Of
course, that group was down (5) regulars including Farrior, Foote, Logan,
Poteat, and Fiala.� It is not
surprising that the KO coverage suffered although, really, there wasn�t
that much difference.� This has
been an issue most games this year; that is why the Steelers are last in
the NFL, on average allowing their opponents to start at the 33.� Why?�
Well, maybe because DE Brett Keisel is actually faster than all the
Steeler back-up LB; Keisel went 4.76 in his Combine 40; Foote, Kurpeikis,
and Haggans toured at between 4.86 and 5.00. �Conceivably, James Harrison could be brought up from the PS,
with Kurpeikis sent down.� More
likely, the Steelers will scour the Old-LB-Home for more Joneses.
- While their QB are up there, the Steeler
RB are not.� �Zereoue is 30th overall,
Bettis 37th.� It is
worth noting that Cleveland rookie RB William Green is rising; this man
has started the past two games and responded with 213 yards rushing.� Green is 40th now and coming
on; if the Brownies have found their franchise RB, then they may well be
the AFC North reps in this year�s playoffs.
- Shocking as it may be, the Steelers are 4th in both PD and INT.� On the downside, they have faced more passes, 436, than any team but KC.� Houston has defended 83 of 342 attempts; Tampa Bay has defended 81 of 384; NO 81 of 402; the Steelers 75 of 436.�
Add (15) picks and the Steelers have thwarted 20.6% of their opponents�
throws.� Last year, they defended 105
and picked 16 of 525; that�s 23% and that�s not much difference especially considering
that TB has (this year) a 27.6% mark, INT and PD combined.
- With Kendall Simmons hobbled, Keydrick Vincent
will probably start against the Jags.�
That�s okay; I think KV can play.�
More importantly, Russ Grimm described Vincent as the finest rookie
FA O-linemen he�s seen.� That may
be, especially considering that Grimm was not here when Hank Fraley was in
camp.
- �The Steelers have (28) sacks in (464) attempts; that�s about 6%.� Last year, they had 55 in 580 attempts; that�s about 9.5%.� Obviously, the sack flop is of far greater magnitude than the PD/INT ratio shown above.� Pressure counts; it is worth noting that teams with the least sacks allowed were 11-3 last Sunday.
�Next Opponent:
Despite giving over 300 yards passing to C�Boy Chad Hutchinson last week, the Jags aren�t horrible on the D-side.� In fact, they are 3rd in the AFC in scoring defense.� Previously, the tri- keys were:
�����������
1. Neutralize Brackens.
2. Neutralize Hardy.
3. Get Darius out of the box.
The Steelers had little success in doing so last year, they were whipped 17-3 in the opener at Jagland and, later, the O-group struggled for most of the game against an out-manned, depleted Jag D-unit.� Now, with Hardy gone and Brackens out, the Steelers� need only:
1. Get Darius out of the box.
2. Deal with the Jag DT twin towers, Stroud and Hendersen.
Marcus Stroud and Jon Hendersen were the Jags back-to-back 1st round selections.� They have combined for 12 sacks, 9 stuffs, 4 FF, and 7 PD.� They�re big, tall guys; both have pad level issues; it will up to the Steelers� squatty interior O-linemen to cut these men down to size.
Brunell can�t run much anymore and the Jags have, at most, (2) legit WR.� However, they also have Steeler-killer Fred Taylor and TE Kyle Brady.� I imagine the Jags will slot Taylor some, making Mack a one-back and look for Brady.� This formation should be sufficient to frighten the Steeler staff into going dime, or Jones-nick, and, if that happens, it�ll be another long afternoon for the Steeler D-side.
Judgment:
The Jags aren�t going anywhere but, no doubt, their coach would like to drag the Steelers under.� Pittsburgh typically stinks it out in Jagland.� Really, all you need to know is this; after the Bengal game, when asked about the Steeler 3rd down defense, Coach Cowher had this to say:
����������� �I don�t have any idea.�
Very true; this week, that Falcon tie will come home to roost.� I believe the Steelers will be 6-5-1 Sunday evening and, presuming the Browns dispatch the Panthers on the (real) North Shore to go 7-5, that Steelers� head-to-head advantage over the Davis-Orange will be applicable nevermore.