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Week 12 in Review

November 26, 2002 by Steel Phantom

Week 1

Week 12 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.Takeaways can be an equalizer.YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).

 

Category

Previous

This week

Year to date

Won this stat but lost the game

Total yards rushing

102-43-3

9-7

111-50-3

NYG

Jacksonville

Green Bay

Detroit

Tennessee

Minnesota

Kansas City

TOP

103-44-1

11-5

114-49-1

Green Bay

Detroit

Tennessee

Kansas City

San Francisco

 

100 yard rushers

54-20

5-4

59-24

NYG

Jacksonville

Arizona

Kansas City

>/= +2 Takeaways

64-6

10-0

74-6

 

YPA

112-31-5

14-2

126-33-5

NYG

Tennessee

 

Futility Index:

 

For the most part, takeaways leveled any rushing or TOP advantage.The Giants were (-2), Green Bay was (-3), Minnesota reverted to form with a (-3).A week after stomping the Steelers, the Titans beat Baltimore in every phase but blew up with a (-4).

 

New Orleans was upset by the Browns mainly because Deuce didn�t play but the Saints (6) turnovers certainly didn�t help; they were (-4) on the game.

 

Houston lost every phase but takeaways; they beat the NYG despite averaging 3.2 YPA.

 

Carolina has been beaten twice by Atlanta; the combined score is 71-0.Last week, the Panthers played all (3) of their QB. None did much, though Randy Fasani played well to raise his season QB rating to 9, (yes nine).The Panthers aren�t beating anyone but each other just now and (-5) sure didn�t help their cause.

 

Steelers Index:

 

  1. Commencing with Game 4 against the Saints, the Steelers have averaged 28.83 PPG.While most of that production came with T-Max at the helm, it is worth noting that Kordell Stewart played very effectively in directing the O-side to 29 against the Bengals. ��Since returning to action, Kordell has been 35/43 with (3) TD and (0) INT; you really can�t ask for more.

 

  1. Some deep thinkers have proposed that the Steelers� D-side woes arose when their offense began scoring, and scoring fast.You know the TOP argument; well, last week, the Steelers possessed the ball for 34:08.That is very similar to their TOP average thru-out 2001.That year, their #1 ranked defense allowed just less than 259 YPG; last week, with equivalent rest, the not-so-big-but-extremely-nasty D allowed 352 yards.Last year, only (3) teams scored (20) or more; last week, the Bengals got (21) and, if TJ Housemandzadeh doesn�t fumble, well, who knows�

 

  1. Kordell might be the kind of guy who learns by watching, not by talking.He had the better part of (7) games to watch T-Max run the offense and, since then, has played with a high degree of resolution.His 22/26 against the Bengals was a career best; on the downside, his previous high was 22/28 against the Titans in November 1998.That season was the beginning of the dark days; Kordell has looked great before but whether or not he has achieved some acceptable level of consistency remains to be seen.

 

  1. The D-side has achieved consistency; they are uniformly awful on third down.The Bengals converted 7/15; that 46.66 % is only slightly below the Steelers� season mark.Last week, Coach Cowher suggested that his staff would be looking at their schemes rather than personnel.Well, he was halfway truthful; in fact, Mike Jones played a good deal on 3rd down; presumably, he was in for one of the DB, presumably, Hope.That does constitute something of a scheme change but certainly not any rational revision.Jones had been inactive since October and, unsurprisingly, contributed little on Sunday.MJ did flop on a fumble but otherwise had (0) T, (0) PD and so on.Amazingly, Coach Cowher assigned his newcomer play-call duties; check this, from Monday�s PG:

 

�Mike Jones stood in the Steelers� huddle and began barking out formations to his teammates.As Jones looked around, he noticed the players had quizzical looks on their faces.�(Said Jones), � I was mixing them up with the Raiders� defenses� Everyone was looking at me like �What are you talking about?�

 

What indeed?Jones didn�t know the nomenclature, got trucked at the goal line on Dillon�s 2nd TD and, later, got tooled by Bengal rookie TE Matt Schobel for the Bengals� 3rd score.Thank God, some stiff like K-Bell wasn�t in the nickel and, thanks again, that somebody like, say, 9-year vet and D-side captain Jason Gildon wasn�t allowed to call out the defenses.

 

  1. For the 2nd time in (3) weeks, the Great-Leader-Protector managed to blow a (17) point margin. Ultimately the Steelers won (this time), however, the entire seventeen had disappeared before the B&G, down 20-21, came back; it is not clear whether this outcome goes to further CC�s glorious mark-with-a-10-point-margin of 71-1-1, or whatever.

 

  1. Back to the QB: T-Max is now 7th in the NFL with a QB rating of 91.0; he is 2nd in both TD% and YPA with 6.8 and 8.00 respectively.Kordell Stewart is (14) passes short of any ranking but, leaving that, his 85.2 rating would put him 17th between McNabb and Brooks; his 4.3 TD% ties with Garcia and Couch; his 6.81 YPA is between Warner and Brunell.There are some solid starting QB clustered around Stew; whoever starts from here on in for the B&G projects to get the job done and whoever gets dealt this off-season projects to bring a nice return.

 

  1. The kickoff coverage units allowed the Bengals +31 yards per return.Of course, that group was down (5) regulars including Farrior, Foote, Logan, Poteat, and Fiala.It is not surprising that the KO coverage suffered although, really, there wasn�t that much difference.This has been an issue most games this year; that is why the Steelers are last in the NFL, on average allowing their opponents to start at the 33.Why?Well, maybe because DE Brett Keisel is actually faster than all the Steeler back-up LB; Keisel went 4.76 in his Combine 40; Foote, Kurpeikis, and Haggans toured at between 4.86 and 5.00. Conceivably, James Harrison could be brought up from the PS, with Kurpeikis sent down.More likely, the Steelers will scour the Old-LB-Home for more Joneses.

 

  1. While their QB are up there, the Steeler RB are not.Zereoue is 30th overall, Bettis 37th.It is worth noting that Cleveland rookie RB William Green is rising; this man has started the past two games and responded with 213 yards rushing.Green is 40th now and coming on; if the Brownies have found their franchise RB, then they may well be the AFC North reps in this year�s playoffs.

 

  1. Shocking as it may be, the Steelers are 4th in both PD and INT.On the downside, they have faced more passes, 436, than any team but KC.Houston has defended 83 of 342 attempts; Tampa Bay has defended 81 of 384; NO 81 of 402; the Steelers 75 of 436.

 

Add (15) picks and the Steelers have thwarted 20.6% of their opponents� throws.Last year, they defended 105 and picked 16 of 525; that�s 23% and that�s not much difference especially considering that TB has (this year) a 27.6% mark, INT and PD combined.

 

  1. With Kendall Simmons hobbled, Keydrick Vincent will probably start against the Jags.That�s okay; I think KV can play.More importantly, Russ Grimm described Vincent as the finest rookie FA O-linemen he�s seen.That may be, especially considering that Grimm was not here when Hank Fraley was in camp.

 

  1. The Steelers have (28) sacks in (464) attempts; that�s about 6%.Last year, they had 55 in 580 attempts; that�s about 9.5%.Obviously, the sack flop is of far greater magnitude than the PD/INT ratio shown above.Pressure counts; it is worth noting that teams with the least sacks allowed were 11-3 last Sunday.

 

Next Opponent:

 

Despite giving over 300 yards passing to C�Boy Chad Hutchinson last week, the Jags aren�t horrible on the D-side.In fact, they are 3rd in the AFC in scoring defense.Previously, the tri- keys were:

�����������

1.      Neutralize Brackens.

2.      Neutralize Hardy.

3.      Get Darius out of the box.

 

The Steelers had little success in doing so last year, they were whipped 17-3 in the opener at Jagland and, later, the O-group struggled for most of the game against an out-manned, depleted Jag D-unit.Now, with Hardy gone and Brackens out, the Steelers� need only:

 

1.      Get Darius out of the box.

2.      Deal with the Jag DT twin towers, Stroud and Hendersen.

 

Marcus Stroud and Jon Hendersen were the Jags back-to-back 1st round selections.They have combined for 12 sacks, 9 stuffs, 4 FF, and 7 PD.They�re big, tall guys; both have pad level issues; it will up to the Steelers� squatty interior O-linemen to cut these men down to size.

 

Brunell can�t run much anymore and the Jags have, at most, (2) legit WR.However, they also have Steeler-killer Fred Taylor and TE Kyle Brady.I imagine the Jags will slot Taylor some, making Mack a one-back and look for Brady.This formation should be sufficient to frighten the Steeler staff into going dime, or Jones-nick, and, if that happens, it�ll be another long afternoon for the Steeler D-side.

 

Judgment:

 

The Jags aren�t going anywhere but, no doubt, their coach would like to drag the Steelers under.Pittsburgh typically stinks it out in Jagland.Really, all you need to know is this; after the Bengal game, when asked about the Steeler 3rd down defense, Coach Cowher had this to say:

 

����������� �I don�t have any idea.�

 

Very true; this week, that Falcon tie will come home to roost.I believe the Steelers will be 6-5-1 Sunday evening and, presuming the Browns dispatch the Panthers on the (real) North Shore to go 7-5, that Steelers� head-to-head advantage over the Davis-Orange will be applicable nevermore.

 

 

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