Eying the Draft -- Macro-level Immutable Rules of Drafting �. (Apr 19, 2004)

 

Editor's note:� This article is based upon last year's "Macro-level Immutable Rules of Drafting".�

 

With the draft day beckoning the nation's attention, it's time to pause and consider the time-honored, but all too often forgotten, Immutable Rules of NFL Drafting.��

 

- It burns various teams every year, and the Stillers have seen their share of problems with this immutable rule of drafting:� Do not reach to fill a need when a far better football player is available.� Yet, sure enough, all too many fans clamor for the player that fills the immediate hot need, totally regardless of who else is available.� This really stems from America's insatiable appetite to scratch an itch and "do it now" mentality without thinking through the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects of a given decision.�

 

Sure, if it's your turn to draft and 2 available players are at the top of your evaluation criteria, one might reasonably take player B to address a need even though Player A is a smidgen better.� That's acceptable.� What isn't acceptable is passing on Jevon Kearse to reach for Troy Edwards, which was one of the most hideous reaches in modern NFL history.� An oft-forgotten reach was the selection of FB Carlos King in round 4 of the 1998 draft.� King was well-known to be a total zero as a blocker, while the Stiller offense mandated that the FB be able to plow through a brick wall.� Undeterred by King's total lack of strength, power, and blocking ability, the Stillers pissed away a 4th round pick on him, all because they wanted to fill a void at FB.�� King was cut just about as quickly as cajun cornerback Liffort Hobbley back in the 80's under Chas Noll.� Back in the 1995 draft the Stillers reached desperately to fill a need.�� Mark Bruener was the 27th player selected in that draft, and the Stillers frothed over him primarily because Eric Green departed town.� The player taken directly after the bootfooted Bruener was a linebacker by the name of Derrick Brooks.� Had the Stillers taken Brooks, he would have easily been the franchise's career sack leader instead of Jason GilDong, and more importantly, Brooks would have given the Stillers some supreme linebacking instead of the fraudulent play of Carlos Emmons, Donte Jones, and Jason GilDong.� In '96, the Stillers reached like rabid giraffes to select fatassed OT Jamain Stephens, who was a total bust.�

 

What makes the "reach to fill a need" stupidity all the more stupid, is the fact that, with modern-day free agency and the statistical probability of career-damaging injury, your roster is susceptible to 25% annual turnover.� With that in mind, it makes absolutely no sense to reach to fill this year's need, when, inevitably, you'll have other major needs the following season anyway.� If you reach and fill the void with a weak player, you now have TWO needs the following year -- the "original" need that you reached for the prior year, and another major need that has now cropped up due to injury, free agency, or retirement.�

 

- Select the best football player/best athlete.� I cannot stand the "best athlete available" (BAA) mantra.� If this were the decathlon, or a SuperStars Competition, then BAA might apply.� This is football.� Neither Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, nor Andy Russell could even remotely approach the label of "excellent athlete".� All three, however, were excellent football players.�

 

Don't get me wrong -- athleticism is good to have.� The grave blunder, however, is placing too great a premium on "athleticism" (or "sheer athleticism", as the trite saying goes), and not enough on whether the guy can crack skulls and play with a rugged, tough mentality as a football player in the National Football League.� The Stillers drafted OLB Steven Conley back in round 3 of the 1996 draft.� Conley was hailed as the "next coming", mostly due to his sheer athleticism as a hoops player and some track skills as well.�� When it came time to put on the pads and crack skulls, Conley was as soft and feeble as a Jason Gildon, and never amounted to squat in the NFL.� 14 picks later, the Pats selected Teddy Bruschi, a far less athletic linebacker but a guy with the heart of a lion and the passion to be an NFL football player.� Later in that same draft, the Dolphins selected an "un-athletic" LB named Zach Thomas in round 5, and the Stillers themselves drafted an un-athletic LB named Earl Holmes.� Of these LBs, the Stillers got the best athlete available in Conley, while the Pats and Dolphs (and even the Stillers with Holmes) got the best football player available in terms of linebacker.� Certainly, the scouting department needs to evaluate a prospect's athleticism in terms of his 40 time, cone drill time, high jump, bench press, and so on.�� Let's face it -- a tough football player who runs a 5.6 "40" probably won't pan out as a safety in the NFL, although a coach like Billy Cowher might very well froth over the guy's "playcalling ability" and his "awareness" and his "ability to get others into the right positions".�� It's got to be a combination of "football player" and "athlete".�� For example, Kendrell Bell is both.� Will Blackwell wasn't anything approaching a football player, and even as an athlete, had dubious merits.� That's why Bell was a steal as a 2nd round pick, while Jackwell was one of the very worst 2nd round selections in the history of the franchise.� Dan Kreider is, according to "measurables", a lousy athlete but one helluva football player.� Same for Hines Ward.� Hall of Fame RB Marcus Allen was deemed "too slow" and was subjected to all sorts of paralysis by analysis, and then had one of the greatest RB careers of all time.� I cringe every time I see too much emphasis placed on a guy's "measurables" and "athleticism", and not enough on his ability to simply play football.�

 

Just to further clarify, you want to select the BPA, regardless of need, unless need and BPA are simultaneously available.�

 

- Do not forget undrafted rookies free agents and SalCap casualties.� The draft isn't the do all and end all.� Undrafted rookies can be signed, and some -- like Dan Kreider -- can and do make an impact.� (Sure, Kreider was ultimately cut at the end of camp in lieu of Jon Witman, but luckily was re-signed a few weeks later when injuries hit the roster.)�� There will be numerous June 1st "salcap cuts", and other unsigned UFAs remain a reasonable course of action.� Because of the pool of undrafted rookies, salcap casualties, and "neglected UFAs", there shouldn't be any reason to reach for an inferior player in the draft simply to fill a need.�

 

- Don�t get too enamored with vanilla adequacy when brilliant, impact playmaking is available in the draft.� Some scouts and some teams get too enamored with polite draft prospects who have shown solid, middle of the road production and potential�.but nothing more.� In the meantime, there are some dazzling flowers just waiting to bloom, but these same scouts will inevitably pull out the microscope and frown over every last minute flaw.� This is precisely why the Jerry Rice's, the Randy Moss's, the Brian Urlacher's, and the Kendrell Bell's get passed over in favor of "safer" bets that turn out to be vanilla mediocrity.�

 

- There's more than 1 round in the draft.� Another immensely important stratagem is that the 1st round is not the do all and end all.� The Stillers seem to put all of their intellectual eggs into one basket -- the first round -- and then grab-bag it thereafter, selecting stiffs like Larry Foote that have no purpose, no upside, and no chance to ever be a starting-caliber player in the NFL.� The mid rounds -- rounds 3-5 -- are a verifiable goldmine, but the Stillers have gotten next to nothing in these 3 rounds in the past 4 drafts.� This is the round where you should find some solid players who soon develop into very solid backups, if not solid starters.� Instead, the Stillers have gotten virtually nothing.� In terms of rounds 3-5, the Stillers' draft of 2000 was quite possibly the worst ever in league history.� Because of trades, the Stillers had 5 picks in those 3 rounds, and came away with Clancy, Poteat, Farmer, Haggans, and Martin.� Only Haggans remains, and the contributions of the other 4 players combined were equivalent to the gnat on the backside of a buffalo.� Clearly, the Stillers must start getting some utility from these mid-rounds if they want to return to championship contention.�

 

Some caveats:

 

- QB is a position that can appropriately be passed over -- situation dependent -- even when a QB is clearly the BFPA (best football player avail) and BAA.� The reason is three-fold:��

 

���� a.)� unlike nearly every other position outside of the kicking game, you can have only QB on the field at a time (unless you've got a "slash"), and it's basically impossible to "rotate" or "platoon" the QB position.� For example, every team needs 2 good OLBs to round out their starting lineup, plus depth, plus special teamers...so adding another LB who is the BFPA/BAA is sensible.� But if you're already fairly set at QB, adding another QB when some other player ranks nearly as high on your evaluation criteria, might be investing too much for a guy to rot the pine.�

 

���� b.)� QBs taken in the first day of the draft typically command massive signing bonuses and salaries.� This can be a cap killer, and to teams either well stocked at QB, or with too many other gaping holes, it may not be prudent to lavish millions on an unproven greenhorn.�

 

���� c.)� because of the nature of the position, QB is the very toughest position in all of pro sports.� Therefore, it takes the longest to master, and the ROI (return on investment) may not pan out, or may pan out far too slowly.� (Having said all of this, the Stillers have eschewed the QB position in the draft for far too long, content to spend nothing more than scrap-heap picks in the 5th, 6th, or most often, the 7th round.)���

 

- FB is another position that can be passed over if you're already stocked pretty well, such as the Stillers.� And by FB, I'm referring to a pure blocking FB, not a Franco Harris or a Larry Czonka.� A modern NFL team needs, at most, 2 FBs, so this isn't a spot that you need to stockpile a whole lot of talent.�

 

- Ignore kickers (both punters and placekickers) on Day 1, regardless of their measurables, "productivity" and so on.�

 

- Speed kills, and it should the one criterion that gets heavier weighting in the decision matrix (assuming the Stillers use anything approaching such an analytical tool for decision making, which is doubtful).� This Stiller team is painfully slow at 20 of the 22 starting positions.� Only Joey Porter and Troy Pola can be said to have above-average speed; every other starter is, at best, average in relation to his NFL peers, and all too many of this team's starters are below average.� Ike Taylor, if he starts, would be a starter with above average speed, but that's it.� I certainly realize that foot-speed for all of the O-linemen, as well as the NT, is entirely immaterial, but at every other position, speed can make a big difference.� This Stillers team is quite possible the slowest team in the NFL, and if not the slowest, they are most assuredly among the slowest 3 or 4 teams in the league.� I'm not saying to disregard BPA, but all things being equal between two draft prospects, the Stillers need to select the one with better speed.�

 

Who do I like for the Stillers to take in round 1 of this draft?� Let's go with whom I don't like, and that's rather easy.� I don't want the Stillers drafting Fat Shawn Andrews at #11 in the 1st round.� Andrews may pan out to be a solid OT, but there are multiple reasons why this would be a horrible selection.�

 

For starters, Fat Shawn won't be anywhere close to being the BPA at pick #11.� This draft is LOADED, and Fat Shawn isn't the 11th best football player available in this cattle call.� Secondly, and equally important, is that a fat lard like Andrews is precisely what this Stiller organization does not need.� If Billy Cowher has a proven ability in anything, it's the ability to ignore players' training regimen and diet, especially in the offseason and after training camp closes.� Cowher has overseen the ballooning of Fat Joel Steed, Fat Levon Kirkland, Fat Jamain Stephens, Fat Jerome Bettis, and several other tubs of lard.�� What the Stillers don't need is a chubby tackle that has already tipped the scales at 400 pounds once in his lifetime and could be on the brink of doing it again at any time in the near future.�

 

Some will argue that the Stillers could trade down to collect an extra pick or two, and then draft Fat Shawn somewhere around 18 or 20.� Again, though, I'd hate the pick.� We already have Fat Oliver Ross; we don't need another fatboy at RT.�

 

Another player I don't want to draft is Kellen Winslow.� Why, because I think he's pompous and overrated?� Absolutely not.� Winslow is a hot-head, but given a team with some real leadership (read: not the Stillers), he'll adjust just fine.� This guy is an incredible talent.� Problem is, the Stillers run a Neanderthal offense, and they treat the TE as a glorified 3rd tackle.� It'd be foolish to draft Winslow, and then watch him get thrown two 6-yard passes per game, if he's lucky.� Frankly, if we do select Winslow, he should -- for his own good -- refuse to sign a contract and demand a trade.�� Forcing Winslow to labor at TE under Billy Cowher would be akin to forcing Tony Stewart to driving a taxicab in a South Florida retirement community.�

 

 

One last note: muchos kudos to my esteemed colleagues here, Phantom and Haven, for their splendid work on the upcoming draft.� Please take the time to read, digest, and assimilate their draft articles.� You won't find anything close to the depth, breadth, and analysis of the draft as what these two preeminent writers have provided.����

 

(Still Mill and Stillers.com -- the only nationally read coverage on the Pittsburgh Stillers that has accurately predicted the how's and the why's of the past 3 Stiller playoff losses�.)