Expectations for Tomlin
By CK Stiller
Few coaches are as fortunate to land a job
on a team with so much talent. The Steelers are just a year removed from a
Super Bowl, and two years removed from a 15-1 season. They have missed the
playoffs just twice now since 2000, and had just a single losing season. Throw
in the fact that you have patient, understanding owners as well as a good front
office (and scouts), and you can see that Tomlin probably landed the best
coaching job in the league.
Of course, that all comes with a price.
Steelers fans are unforgiving. They do not tolerate failure. Roethlisberger
went 27-4 in his two seasons with the team, and won a Super Bowl. As he
struggled in his third year, he found himself booed and some actually called
for journeyman QB Charlie Batch to start. QB�s and coaches who had taken the
Steelers to the playoffs and even won Super Bowls found themselves booed when
they failed to deliver. There�s no doubt that they won�t take kindly to losing,
and they sure won�t hesitate to turn on a man who has yet to prove a thing.
Tomlin has arguably started off on the wrong foot, as many believed that the
job should have gone to Grimm or Whisenhunt, as opposed to an outsider with little
experience.
Besides the fans, though, there�s the issue
of who he is replacing. Few have the burden of coming in and taking over for a
HOF coach. Cowher won a lot of football games. He finally got his ring. He took
the team to the AFCC game an incredible six times in his 15 year reign. A
number of veterans on the team made it be known that they preferred an insider,
like Grimm. Tomlin does face the risk of facing resentment in the locker room,
on top of living in the shadow of Cowher�not to mention Noll and the dynasty of
the 70�s.
Realistically, this is a team built to win
now. There will be no excuse for them to not be in the playoffs next year. They
still only missed it by one game this year; in spite of starting the season
2-6. The Rooney�s gave Tomlin a four year deal. While patient, I doubt the
Rooney�s will sit through too many losing seasons. Cowher started off by taking
his team to the playoffs six straight times, and he took over a team that had
been average for years under Noll (although there was a good deal of young
talent). Tomlin probably will not have more than two seasons to make the
playoffs, and that is perfectly reasonable.
As for the Super Bowl? The Rooney�s don�t
seem to have much of a timetable there. Though, I was curious to see what
Steelers fans should expect from a new coach. How much experience did the
coaches who won the big game actually have, and how long can you really expect
to wait?
22 coaches have won a ring. That number will
rise to 23 very shortly. The average amount of experience for coaches
winning their first Super Bowl was just six years. 5.9 to be exact. If
Dungy�s Colts win this year, the number rises to 6.1. If it�s Smith, the number
falls slightly to 5.7.
However, those numbers are a tad misleading.
Only nine coaches who won a Super Bowl had more than 5 years of experience. Two
of those men, Hank Stram and Vince Lombardi, had championships prior to the
merger. They had been coaching for 8 and 15 years when they won the Super Bowl
itself. Bill Cowher took 14 seasons to get the job done, which made him the
most �experienced� coach. Dungy has 11 years under his belt. Shula and
Landry were up there, as well. Most coaches who go on to win, then, do so in
under five to six years. Perhaps it�s more accurate to say that those who don�t
win in that timeframe generally don�t keep their jobs.
Those that won it in five seasons or less:
Don McCafferty - Won in first year as coach of Baltimore Colts in
1970. Inherited his team from Don Shula.
Tom Flores - Won in second season with the Raiders in 1980.
Inherited his team from John Madden.
Bill Walsh - Won in his third season. Of course, the man
revolutionized the game. He made a mediocre/awful franchise into one of its
proudest�at least for 20 years or so.
Joe Gibbs - Won in his second season. Another HOF coach.
Mike Ditka - Won in fourth season. Rebuilt the Bears.
Bill Parcells - Won in fourth season. Rebuilt the Giants, who had
been complete losers before hand.
George Seifert - Won in second season. Inherited his team from
Walsh, of course.
Jimmy Johnson - Won in fourth season. Rebuild the Cowboys.
Barry Switzer - Inherited Johnson�s Cowboys.
Mike Holmgren - Won in fifth season. Rebuilt the Packers.
Mike Shanahan - Won in fifth season. Was in second stint as head
coach. Actually was with the Broncos for three seasons.
Brian Billick - Won in second season. We all know the story here.
An �offensive genius� who won with one of the best defenses of all time. He had
little to do with this win.
Jon Gruden - Won in fifth season. Second stint, obviously. Was
in his first season with the Bucs, and obviously inherited his team from Tony
Dungy.
What can we see here? Well, there are some
fairly average names up there, and some that are very impressive. The guys who
won it in three seasons or less were mostly inheriting very good teams. That
isn�t very surprising. They weren�t very spectacular themselves. Six of those
in this category inherited their team from HOF coaches (at least potentially),
and the other two were Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh�nothing needs to be said there.
Those in the four to five range were guys who had to rebuild their teams, and
it�s a pretty good list. All of those guys could find themselves in the HOF
some day.
What does this mean for Tomlin and Steelers
fans? It says that, if Tomlin is going to win one, he�ll probably do it in his
first five seasons. Looking at the list above, it may be more accurate to say
that if he�s going to do it, he�ll do it in the next three. Few win
championships beyond that point, and those that do are guys like Cowher, Shula,
Landry, or Dungy who put together very successful teams that compete each
season.