Dolphins at Steelers, Week 1 Prediction

Dolphins at Steelers, Week 1 Prediction

I was confident the Steelers would beat Miami this coming Thursday soundly. �I liked how the Steelers matched up with Miami�s defense. �Or, more specifically, I liked Roethlisberger throwing all over Miami�s secondary. �Call me chicken-little, but I don�t like the team�s chances without him under center Thursday.

I don�t usually buy the hype around teams in the preseason. �I didn�t buy Buffalo was going to be a playoff team last year, for a laundry list of reasons. However, things are different with Miami. �This has been a solid team for years. �People forgot just how good they actually were after their disastrous �04 campaign without Ricky Williams, or really any offensive talent in the backfield period. �Many fans are quick to dismiss Miami as a mediocre team that has been over-hyped, but I believe that Miami is a team nearly as talented as Pittsburgh itself, and the Steelers only chance of winning this thing will be an old-school dog fight. �The kind the Steelers made a living off of pre-2001. �Unfortunately, I have a lot of doubts about whether this current football team is capable of winning football games like that anymore.

Steelers Pass Game
Things will begin with the pass for the Steelers this week. �I have little confidence that the run game will be able to perform well enough to keep the chains moving and win this game for the Steelers (and I�ll explain why in a moment). �Batch performed admirably in 2005 filling in for Roethlisberger. Clearly there was a world of difference between the performances he gave, and those of Tommy Maddox. �There was also a pretty big gap in the class of defenses the two faced. �Cleveland and Green Bay vs. Jacksonville and Baltimore. �More specifically, two of those teams couldn�t generate a pass rush if their jobs depended on it. �Cleveland was dead last in the league in sacks last year, and Green Bay was 19th. �Maddox was gutless, but he was also under heavy pressure in both of those games.

It�s very easy to question the Dolphin secondary. �It performed poorly in 2005, and was easily the weakest aspect of the Dolphins team, besides maybe the QB position. �However, this is also a team that was second in the league in sacks last year, and features one of the toughest front 7�s in all of football. �This will be a real test for Batch. �The Steelers OL will have to step-up this game. �The pass protection was awful throughout the preseason, and shaky all throughout 2005 (including the playoff run).

The Steelers best bet here? �Come out throwing with success early when Miami is looking for a heavy dose of Willie Parker. �The only way the Steelers will have success on offense is if they are able to force Miami to respect the passing attack. I have serious doubts this will happen. �Get Miller involved early in the passing game. �If the Steelers can�t control the line of scrimmage, and Miller is taken out of the game, Batch will be left throwing to a banged up Ward and Wilson, neither of which I can see scaring Miami�s safeties. �Keep the defense on its heels early to slow down the pass rush.

Steelers Run Game
What will the Steelers run game be able to accomplish if the team can�t throw? �Obviously, not much. �I�m saying this - the Steelers will not run the ball with success against this Dolphins defense. I hope the line proves me wrong, but I don�t think it will. �The Steelers line play was poor throughout much of the 2005 season. Some will argue with that claim, but it�s the way I see it and The stats back me up. �The Steelers run game had gaudy raw numbers last year. The run game ranked fifth in the league, but it was flimsy at best against the quality defenses faced last year. �The table below shows how the Steelers run game (5th last season) stacked up against the two teams rated below and above them:

I will be amazed if the Steelers run game is effective against the Dolphins. �I'm hoping for it, but I don't believe it happens. �Batch and the Steelers passing game will have to open things up for the Steelers Thursday.

Steelers Pass Defense
I'm worried here. �Very worried. �Drunk off the success seen in the playoffs, I think many forget how the Steelers struggled at times to generate a pass rush in much of 05. It came on strong during the 8 game stretch, but how reliable will it be come Thursday? I have some serious questions here. �If no pass rush, I see the Steelers getting shredded. The Dolphins OL has a bad repuation, but they performed at a high level in 05 after crumbling in the 04 season.� The Dolphins allowed only 26 sacks last season, the fourth lowest total in the league, in 556 pass attempts. �The Dolphins line doesn't have many big names, but they were productive. �On the other hand, the Steelers OL has three Pro-Bowlers on the left side, but has provided far shakier pass protection. Some good news for the Steelers? �Starting RG Seth McKinney is out for the game. �How much effect will his have? I say little, in terms of pass protection. �The Dolphins will still start an experienced replacement in Bennie Anderson.

The Steelers secondary for tomorrow worries me. Neither Clark nor Polamalu is great in coverage. �Well, Clark just sucks period. Polamalu's job tomorrow? �I imagine he'll be on McMichael all day, and this, for me, is the most interesting match-up on defense. �Can Polamalu get the job done? �We all saw the Super Bowl and The Seahawks had Stevens open all day. I can't count how many passes he dropped, but he still came out of the game with an impressive stat line. If he holds on to the ball, maybe the Steelers lose that game. �The Super Bowl was a bad day for most of the team, though, so I'll give the benefit of the doubt here. The most comparable game from last season would be the one against the Chargers. �LeBeau stuck Polamalu on Gates all night long. Gates was not shut down entirely. He came up with a big TD catch at the end of the first half that helped San Diego back into the game. �Still, I would say Polamalu got the better of Gates throughout most of the night. I have never seen Polamalu play more aggressively for the Steelers as he did that night. If they can get a repeat performance, the Steelers have a chance of shutting down this Dolphins passing attack. I like Ike Taylor against Chambers. �I like him against most WR's in the league. Chambers is more hype then substance. �Not an elite WR. �Marty Booker and Townsend should be a fairly even match-up. �The corners and WR's match-up is in favor of the Steelers. If McMichael can be kept in check, Culpepper should struggle.

Well, he should struggle if there's an adequate pass rush. �I'm not sure there will be. �I see this as a matter of the scheme. Which side will understand the other better? Can LeBeau confuse the well-coached Miami line with his blitzes? �I don't believe he will. �Polamalu coming down into the box introduces a large number of problems for a defense, but I can't see him doing much of that Thursday, or maybe even for most of this season if Clark plays as bad as he did in the preseason all year. Kiesel is big here. The one advantage he has over Kimo is his ability to generate a pass rush. �If Haggans and Porter can't get around the edge, he needs to be there to contain/clean-up Culpepper.

Steelers Run Defense
The steadiest aspect of the team over the years has been the run defense. �I always have confidence that the Steelers will shut down the opposing RB, and this game is no exception. McKinney being out on the inside will make the match-up against Hampton tilt even more into the Steelers favor. �Kiesel has looked very good in the preseason, and I believe he answered the questions about his ability to the play the run. This will be his biggest test yet, but I believe he'll be able to hold his own against Shelton just fine. �That, along with the 1.5 sacks I see him getting, will make people forget about Kimo.

Prediction: Yesterday, I had the Steelers losing. �Today? �Well, I'm somewhat more optimistic...mainly about the defense. The key will be McMichael-Polamalu. I think that McMichael will make some plays this game. �I think he gets enough where the Dolphins are able to scrap up some points, while the Steelers offense is unable to do the same. The Steelers best chance of winning this game? �Polamalu creates a turnover or two to counterbalance the one or two plays he'll allow. I'm hoping I'm wrong about this:
Final Score: 17-13, Dolphins

If you have any questions or comments, you can contact me at CKsteeler@hotmail.com, or on the message board forums (username CKSteelers).